Conventional wisdom is that if you have to lose, lose to a really good team so you don't get saddled with a "bad loss" but the 2-division format of most Conferences makes that bad advice. Most of the time, a loss to a mediocre team is a lot better for your Playoff chances.
Case in point: #1 Georgia. They play Florida at the "neutral" Jacksonville site and what happens if they lose? Are they struggling, hoping for all sorts of losses from other teams? No, they still control their own destiny to a 12-1 finish and a certain Playoff berth.
Meanwhile #2 Ohio State plays at #9 Penn State. Surely a loss to the Nittany Lions won't slow down the Buckeyes much at all, can't be worse than a loss to 4-3 Florida, could it? Well if the Buckeyes lose, even if they beat Michigan there will be a 3-way tie for the Big Ten East and who knows how that plays out. In other words, destiny control is not assured.
You see it with #6 Tennessee and #7 Michigan too. Kentucky and Michigan State aren't threats to win their division, so the Vols and Wolverines still control their destiny to win their conference and get a certain bid. Note that this only works for conferences where a 12-1 finish and conference title guarantees a Playoff berth. #5 TCU no longer controls their destiny if they lose to West Virginia. And you have to be undefeated, too: #4 USC can't take a loss to Arizona.
SportsRatings Projected Final Top 25 Committee Rankings, with Line and next game
Rnk Team Rec Proj Line This weekend 1. Georgia 7-0 13-0 -22.5 = Florida 2. Ohio State 7-0 13-0 -15.5 @ #9 Penn State 3. Clemson 8-0 13-0 --- idle 4. USC 6-1 12-1 -15.5 @ Arizona 5. TCU 7-0 12-1 -7.5 @ West Virginia 6. Tennessee 7-0 11-1 -12.5 Kentucky 7. Michigan 7-0 11-1 -22.0 Michigan State 8. Alabama 7-1 11-2 --- idle 9. Penn State 6-1 10-2 +15.5 #2 Ohio State 10. Mississippi 7-1 10-2 -2.5 @ Texas A&M 11. UCLA 6-1 10-2 -16.5 Stanford 12. Syracuse 6-1 10-2 -2.5 Notre Dame 13. Utah 5-2 10-2 -7.0 @ #25 Wash State 14. Oklahoma St 6-1 10-3 +1.5 @ #23 Kansas St 15. Oregon 6-1 10-3 -17.0 @ California 16. Illinois 6-1 10-3 -7.5 @ Nebraska 17. NC State 5-2 9-3 -13.5 Virginia Tech 18. Wake Forest 6-1 9-3 -3.5 @ Louisville 19. LSU 6-2 9-3 --- idle 20. UNC 6-1 9-4 -3.0 Pittsburgh 21. Texas 5-3 9-3 --- idle 22. Tulane 7-1 12-1 --- idle 23. Kansas St 5-2 8-4 -1.5 #14 Oklahoma St 24. Florida St 4-3 8-4 -24.0 Georgia Tech 25. Washington St 4-3 8-4 +7.0 #13 Utah
The first really interesting game on the slate is #10 Mississippi at Texas A&M, where the Rebels are not even a field goal favorite; the same goes for #12 Syracuse hosting Notre Dame. Both the Aggies and the Irish are stocked with talent which made them pre-season faves, and the oddsmakers know that talent can rear its head at any moment.
Further, #14 Oklahoma State is actually an underdog vs. #23 Kansas State. Our projection agrees with that result, one reason K-State got back into our projection despite losing to TCU—when OK State beat Texas and joined the Top 25, it gave K-State a boost. The Cowboys can improve their odds a lot with a win, while the Wildcats fall off the chart, again, if they lose.
Other close calls, per the oddsmakers: #18 Wake Forest is a narrow favorite over Louisville. Here again, our projection has the Cardinals winning and being one of Wake's 2 future losses. So the Deacons can move up if they win. And #20 North Carolina is a slim fave over Pittsburgh at home. This is because the Tar Heels aren't very highly thought of in power ratings. We have them #59, and Pitt #60, so it's only home field that gives them the win in our book. It's also why 6-1 UNC is projected to 9-4—winning their division at 9-3 and falling to Clemson in the ACC title game. But at 6-1 the Tar Heels are in better shape than almost any team in the bottom 10 of the projection, and better than #17 NC State and #18 Wake Forest, because they are much closer to controlling their destiny than those teams, both of whom are in Clemson's division and have lost to the Tigers already. We just doubt they'll win out—the trickiest part of "controlling your destiny."
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