Tennessee's upset of Alabama wasn't as outrageous as some are making it out to be, nor does it put the Vols on the fast-track to the Playoff. It sure improved their odds, however, while USC's loss to Utah obviously damaged theirs. We'll look at the teams in our latest projection in groups.
First Group: The Inside Track
Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson are all in pole position for the Playoff due to their quality and/or their schedule. Georgia and Ohio State rank #2 and #1 in our power rating and can overcome stiff challenges from the likes of Alabama and Michigan. For #3 Clemson, who ranks just 11th, it's more about their easy schedule, and the fact that they've already cleared several hurdles (Wake Forest, NC State, FSU). Hence these teams have well above 50% chances in our book.
Second Group: On the Verge
The last Playoff spot probably goes to one of the next four teams. USC didn't fall from #4 but did lose almost 25% of their chances, most of which went to Tennessee who is now roughly in the same situation as Michigan: both need to beat the 800-lb elephant in their division (Georgia or Ohio State) to make their conference final, which for the Volunteers would probably be a rematch with Alabama. A tougher road for Tennessee but a slightly better chance to make the Playoff if they end up 11-1. And of course don't count out the Tide, still rated as one of the best three teams; even an 11-2 Alabama has a decent Playoff shot, and they can still finish 12-1 which would be a practical guarantee. All four of these teams end up with solid shots at the Playoff but none is above 50%.
SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 7 (10/16)
LW Rnk Team Rec Proj %Odds %chg Losses (actuals in bold) 1 1. Georgia 7-0 13-0 76.0 +1.4 2 2. Ohio State 6-0 13-0 74.4 +1.4 3 3. Clemson 7-0 13-0 70.8 +1.3 4 4. USC 6-1 12-1 40.8 -23.1 @Utah 43-42 14 5. Tennessee 6-0 11-1 31.2 +26.2 @Georgia 6 6. Michigan 7-0 11-1 25.7 +7.0 @OhioSt 5 7. Alabama 6-1 11-2 18.1 -6.0 @Tenn 52-49, =Georgia 10 8. Mississippi 7-0 11-1 10.4 +1.5 Alabama 9 9. Texas 5-2 11-2 9.8 +0.3 Alabama 20-19, TTech OT 11 10. TCU 6-0 11-2 9.3 +0.9 @Texas, =Texas 13 11. UCLA 6-0 10-2 6.6 +1.1 @Oregon, USC 12 12. Penn State 5-1 10-2 6.0 +0.0 @Michigan 41-17, OhioSt 16 13. Syracuse 6-0 10-2 5.5 +2.9 @Clemson, @Wake 24 14. Utah 5-2 10-2 4.9 +4.8 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32 7 15. Oregon 5-1 10-3 3.3 -8.2 @Georgia 49-3, Utah, =USC 15 16. Illinois 6-1 10-3 2.7 -0.8 @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt 17 17. NC State 5-2 9-3 1.7 -0.4 @Clemson 30-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou 8 18. Wake Forest 5-1 9-3 1.1 -8.9 Clemson OT, @Lou, @NCSt 18 19. UCF 5-1 12-1 0.5 -0.7 @Lou 20-14 19 20. South Alabama 5-1 12-1 0.4 -0.3 @UCLA 32-31 new 21. UNC 6-1 9-4 0.3 +0.3 @Notre 45-32, @Wake, @NCst, =Clem new 22. Purdue 5-2 8-4 0.2 +0.2 @PennSt 35-31, @Syr 32-29, @Wisc, @ILL new 23. Minnesota 4-2 9-3 0.1 +0.1 Pur 20-10, @ILL 26-14, @PennSt 22 24. Florida St 4-3 8-4 0.1 -0.1 Wake 31-21, @NCSt 19-17, Clem 34-28, @Syr new 25. LSU 5-2 8-4 0.1 +0.1 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, Miss, Alabama
Dropped out: #20 Notre Dame (6-6), #21 BYU (6-6), #23 San Jose State (10-3), #25 Washington St (8-4)
Third Group: Unproven or already behind the 8-ball
Mississippi, Texas, TCU, UCLA, Penn State, Syracuse and Utah all have roadblocks or haven't proved they can clear all the remaining hurdles. Ole Miss isn't far from Tennessee's situation—but without the proven win over Alabama. TCU is likewise undefeated but may have to top Texas twice to insure a Playoff bid. UCLA (Strength: #29) has Oregon and USC to deal with. And Syracuse faces both Clemson and Wake Forest on the road.
Those teams are all unbeaten, while Texas already has two losses weighing them down, as does Utah, and Penn State lost 41-17 at Michigan. The reasons are different but every team in this group has roughly a 5-10% chance of things going their way and making the Playoff.
Fourth Group: The Long Shots
Oregon, Illinois, NC State, and Wake Forest have meager odds according to our system, with each team projected to finish with three losses. Most of them control their destiny to some extent—for each, winning out would put them within striking distance of the Playoff at least—but none rank high enough in Strength relative to their upcoming schedule to give a lot of confidence that they can pull it off. All are under 5% odds, some just over 1%.
Fifth Group: The No-hopers
Let's face it, beyond here it would take extraordinary events to put any of these teams in the Playoff. But all have a great chance to finish in the top 25, even if in the lower rungs. UCF and South Alabama look like the best chance for a New Year's Day team from the Group of Five, with UCF's name and schedule giving them a big edge while the Jaguar's hopes live and die with UCLA.
The last 5 teams all project to 3 or 4 losses, and most already have two losses which has been prohibitive for Playoff entry so far. FSU still somehow manages a 0.1% odds despite having THREE losses. The exception here is North Carolina, who is 6-1 but only #57 in Strength so we don't expect their good record to last. But the Tar Heels are the only one in the No-Hope group that still has theoretical hope. The bottom of this list is becoming less about Playoff hope and more about top 25 bragging rights.
Sixth Group: The Dropouts
Only four teams fell out this week. Notre Dame and BYU were the great hopes of the Independents this season but both are looking like pedestrian 6-6 teams now. San Jose State lost and now can't finish the 12-1 they'd need to make the Committee's top 25. And Washington State fell to Oregon State and now looks like an 8-4 team, and not one with a great résumé.
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