Normally at this time of the year, a huge Big Twelve confrontation is the most important game of the week, and this year is no exception. Except that instead of the Red River Rivalry (nee Shootout), it's undefeated TCU vs. undefeated Kansas that the nation is focused on.
TCU has won us over in just four games and is favored to go 13-0 and make the Playoff. Crazy? We'll see if they last up at those heights. Kansas is 5-0 but we're not sold on them yet as anything other than a 6-6 bowl team. That could change in Lawrence; the Horned Frogs are just a touchdown favorite but should win by double digits if they're to maintain their status in our projection.
The "other" Big Twelve game is between #23 Texas and #25 Oklahoma; both have two losses and only a very small shot at the Playoff because of that. Neither is out of the Big Twelve race, however, especially Texas who has a loss to Alabama on the books. #24 Kansas State is also in the hunt and just a tiny favorite to beat Iowa State on the road.
SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff standings, with projected record, Line, and this week's opponent:
Rnk Team Rec Proj Line This week 1. Alabama 5-0 13-0 -24.0 Texas A&M 2. Ohio State 5-0 13-0 -26.5 @ Michigan St 3. TCU 4-0 13-0 -7.0 @ Kansas (5-0) 4. Clemson 5-0 12-1 -20.5 @ Boston College 5. Georgia 5-0 12-1 -30.0 @ Auburn 6. Michigan 5-0 11-1 -21.0 @ Indiana 7. Utah 4-1 11-2 -4.5 @ #19 UCLA 8. USC 5-0 11-1 -13.0 Washington St 9. NC State 4-1 11-1 -3.5 FSU 10. Penn State 5-0 10-2 --- idle 11. Oregon 4-1 11-2 -13.0 @ Arizona 12. Wake Forest 4-1 10-2 -16.5 Army 13. Mississippi 5-0 10-2 -18.0 @ Vanderbilt 14. Washington 4-1 10-2 -14.0 ASU 15. Illinois 4-1 10-3 -3.5 Iowa 16. LSU 4-1 9-3 +3.0 #17 Tennessee 17. Tennessee 4-0 9-3 -3.0 @ #16 LSU 18. Notre Dame 2-2 9-3 -3.5 =BYU 19. UCLA 5-0 9-3 +4.5 #7 Utah 20. Maryland 4-1 9-3 -3.0 Purdue 21. Minnesota 4-1 9-3 --- idle 22. South Alabama 4-1 12-1 --- idle 23. Texas 3-2 9-4 -7.0 =#25 Oklahoma 24. Kansas St 4-1 9-3 -2.0 @ Iowa St 25. Oklahoma 3-2 9-3 +7.0 =#23 Texas
The top game between two ranked teams (in our Playoff projections) is between #7 Utah and #19 UCLA. With UCLA 5-0 it might be better for the Pac-12 if the Bruins come out on top. It would also be better for South Alabama's New Year's Six chances. #8 USC, #11 Oregon, and #14 Washington are all double-digit favorites in their contests in the still-wide-open Pac-12
The only other intra-top 25 game is in the SEC, with #16 LSU the underdog vs. #17 Tennessee. In our projection LSU is Tennessee's 3rd loss despite Tennessee being #7 and LSU #16 in the referenced power rating. It's a tight game, tilting only to LSU due to home field advantage, and the Vols could regain their top 10 status with a win. #1 Alabama and #5 Georgia are huge favorites in their SEC contests, as is #13 Mississippi.
Can FSU make a comeback? A few weeks ago FSU suddenly stormed our rankings with a 12-1 projection...then lost to Wake Forest. Beating #9 NC State could put them back on the map, in a more realistic space. It would also destroy the Wolfpack's Playoff hopes. Currently #4 Clemson is picked to just barely make the Playoff at 12-1 and Boston College isn't supposed to offer too much resistance this week. Nor is #12 Wake Forest supposed to have much trouble with Army, and don't expect another shootout like last year's 70-56. We project a 42-20 win for the Deacs, pretty close to the 65.5 over/under.
The Big Ten has a couple of interesting games. Interesting on paper. Iowa at #15 Illinois will test the Illini's sudden viability as a contender. These teams both have top five defenses, so it could be one of the more boring games you've seen all year. Illinois' offense is stagnant while Iowa's is non-existant. Illinois is just a 3 1/2 point favorite but they have to win by a couple of touchdowns to keep their rating. A shutout wouldn't shock us based on the Illinois defense and Iowa offense, but we've seen a lot of new-kids-in-town get shot down by an upset in recent weeks, so Illinois (and TCU) are on upset alert. #20 Maryland has a tougher test, we think, hosting Purdue. This one our computer agrees with the spread on, but my hunch is Purdue hands Maryland another loss.
And finally, #18 Notre Dame vs. BYU. This game was on our radar from the start but has been greatly diminished in importance week by week. Now it's the final nail for either team's Playoff hopes, not that either in in good position right now. The Irish have 2 losses, which in the Playoff's short history means they're out, and BYU has one bad loss which has been prohibitive for non-Power-Five schools. We're not even sure which outcome makes things more interesting. Should be a good game, though.
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