Projecting four 13-0 teams (game-by-game, obviously) at the beginning of the season is pretty common. As losses mount fewer teams look to be favored in every game, but now after week six that's where our projection is: four Power Five conference champs at 13-0.
- Georgia, up from #5, replacing Alabama at #1 as the winner of the SEC title game. This could change next week so stay alert!
- Ohio State, holding at #2, the clear Big Ten winner
- Clemson, 13-0 for the first time: they finally win at Notre Dame in their Nov. 5 matchup
- USC, also newly 13-0 now that they outclass Utah on the road and Oregon on a neutral field
That puts Alabama, the #2 team in our source power rating, out of the Playoff this week. Georgia's partial home field advantage in the SEC title game gives the Bulldogs the nod. The Tide keep having close calls that are causing doubt that they can run the table, but in reality they just need one team to stumble above them. Four 13-0 teams is probably not going to last.
Texas is another big mover as the Longhorns look like they can beat TCU anywhere. The Horned Frogs drop to #11 from #3 but the 2nd meeting—the Big Twelve Playoff game—is really tight and could change quickly. Texas has a pretty high probability (9.3%) to become the first 2-loss team to make the Playoff but even at 11-2 they'd need some of those 13-0 teams to lose (and having Alabama go 13-0, not Georgia, would help)
SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 6 (10/9)
LW Rnk Team Rec Proj %Odds %chg Losses (actuals in bold) 5 1. Georgia 6-0 13-0 74.5 +38.7 2 2. Ohio State 6-0 13-0 73.0 -2.8 4 3. Clemson 6-0 13-0 69.5 +26.2 8 4. USC 6-0 13-0 64.0 +53.3 1 5. Alabama 6-0 12-1 24.2 -53.1 =Georgia 6 6. Michigan 6-0 11-1 18.6 +3.0 @OhioSt 11 7. Oregon 5-1 11-2 11.5 +4.5 @Georgia 49-3, =USC 12 8. Wake Forest 5-1 11-1 9.9 +3.4 @Clemson OT 23 9. Texas 4-2 11-2 9.4 +9.1 Alabama 20-19, TTech OT 13 10. Mississippi 6-0 11-1 8.9 +2.9 Alabama 3 11. TCU 5-0 11-2 8.4 -59.5 @Texas, =Texas 10 12. Penn State 5-0 10-2 6.0 -1.4 @Michigan, OhioSt 19 13. UCLA 6-0 10-2 5.5 +3.4 @Oregon, USC 17 14. Tennessee 5-0 10-2 5.0 +2.0 Alabama, @Georgia 15 15. Illinois 5-1 10-3 3.5 -0.4 @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt new 16. Syracuse 5-0 9-3 2.6 +2.6 @Clemson, NotreDame, @Wake 9 17. NC State 5-1 9-3 2.0 -8.1 @Clemson 30-20, @Syr, Wake new 18. UCF 4-1 12-1 1.3 +1.3 Louisville 20-14 22 19. South Alabama 4-1 12-1 0.8 +0.2 @UCLA 32-31 18 20. Notre Dame 3-2 8-4 0.4 -2.1 @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Clem, @USC new 21. BYU 4-2 10-2 0.3 +0.3 @Oregon 41-20, =Notre 28-20 new 22. FSU 4-2 8-4 0.2 +0.2 Wake 31-21, @NCSt 19-17, Clem, Syr new 23. San Jose St 4-1 12-1 0.2 +0.2 @Auburn 24-16 7 24. Utah 4-2 8-4 0.1 -12.0 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, USC, @Ore new 25. Washington St 4-2 9-3 0.1 +0.1 Oregon 44-41, @USC 30-14, Utah
Dropped out: #14 Washington (8-4), #16 LSU (7-5), #20 Maryland (8-4), #21 Minnesota (8-4), #24 Kansas State (8-4), #25 Oklahoma (3-9)
Oregon, still the projected Pac-12 runner-up, moves up as their only 2 losses are from undefeated Playoff teams and they have three "wins" over our Committee Top 25. Thus they're in position to take a spot with a win over USC, but that huge Georgia loss still makes a bit of a ceiling. Wake Forest crushed Army 45-10 and now looks like a team that could finish 11-1 and miss out on their conference title, much like Mississippi at #10, who might only lose to Alabama.
The top newcomer this week is Syracuse, who already has a win over Purdue (another new entry) and might get another solid win over NC State. The Orange are 5-0 but have yet to face Wake and Clemson. This résumé puts them just behind Penn State, UCLA, and Tennessee, who all pan out at 10-2 with losses to the very top teams only but big wins are few and far between. For example the Bruins dispatched Washington and Utah in consecutive weeks but the Huskies are out of the Top 25 now and Utah plummets to #24, leaving #19 South Alabama as their top win. If UCLA can beat Oregon and/or USC they'll move up, and the Jaguars will draft up with them to a lesser extent.
Apart from Washington, now projected at 8-4, five other teams dropped out: LSU was crushed by Tennessee and now looks like a 7-5 team; Maryland lost at home to Purdue; Minnesota was idle but now projects to 8-4; Kansas State's 10-9 win over Iowa State reduced their projection to 8-4 and Oklahoma was of course demolished and embarrassed 49-0 by Texas, making them the underdog in every single game the rest of the way! The Big Twelve is a bad conference to get underwater in, there's lots of parity and the Sooners have to play the easier teams on the road, just enough to turn them into losses. No, they probably won't go 3-9 but any wins they get are now considered upsets.
Notre Dame beat BYU but interestingly the Irish a few spots while BYU came back in. Strange, yes, but the 28-20 loss was expected for BYU and actually improved their rating a bit, enough to put them past Arkansas who got crushed 40-17 by Mississippi State this weekend. Now projected at 10-2 the Cougars will remain as long as they win, but both those losses are already real so they won't be threatening to make a run for the top four spots. Notre Dame looked to be 9-3 with only a future loss to USC, but after last week's action Clemson is also a loss; they fall to 8-4 but the wins over BYU and Syracuse keep them on the Committee radar.
New Group of Five Champs: UCF clubbed SMU 41-19 on Wednesday which not only put the Knights in the projected AAC championship, but made them the favorite over Cincinnati. If UCF can go 12-1 they'll definitely finish in the Committee Top 25, but well short of the top four barring real insanity. If they'd beaten Louisville they'd still be a long shot. San Jose State is new on the projection at 12-1 as Mountain West champs, but with their terrible SOS #23 might be the best they can do. The loss to Auburn is looking worse by the day, too. In addition to BYU, two more teams also entered the rankings despite losing this weekend: Florida State got back on the list with four losses to ACC foes, two of which have already occurred. Washington State also joined at #24 with two losses already, but a projected 9-3 record which is getting rarer by the week, as three ranked teams now have projected 8-4 records.
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