Not much happened to shake up the Projected Playoff picture, which meant that the long-shot teams—which have been drying up for weeks—are downright starved anymore. But first let's look at the top of the Projection:
The top four were unchanged, all gaining a small amount because "business as usual" is good for the top teams. Former #5 TCU hit a major bump because of what Kansas State did to Oklahoma State. A Wildcat win was figured into the projection already, when K-State was #23 and Oklahoma State #14. But nothing like 48-0. That win made K-State the favorite to beat TCU in the Big Twelve title game; the last meeting between the teams ended in a TCU home win, 38-28. The Horned Frogs aren't the favorite to beat Baylor anymore. Parity is killing the Big Twelve, which looks very likely to miss out on a Playoff spot. But who knows, things can change fast and TCU is 8-0 so they control their destiny.
The main recipient of TCU's lost odds went to Tennessee, who at 8-0 has a number of ways to get to the Playoff and not a lot has to happen for them to be favored to get a spot. Their most likely trajectory is an 11-1 finish, losing to 13-0 Georgia which isn't a bad spot to be in. Or, if they beat Georgia and lose to Alabama they're got a hell of a résumé at 12-1 and a win over the Bulldogs and the Tide. And of course they could win out and guarantee the top spot. Right now they're still a touch behind Pac-12 fave USC who only has one path. #6 Michigan and #7 Alabama's odds improved, but they also have fewer paths than the Vols. After that we have teams with major résumé flaws (Oregon), teams whose path playing out is unlikely (Mississippi, UCLA), and teams that are counting on chaos (Penn State). Yet all of these teams still show a fairly high Odds% because there is such a limited set of teams that appear to be headed for a decent finish!
SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 9 (10/31)
LW Rnk Team Rec Proj %Odds %Chg Losses (actuals in bold) 1 1. Georgia 8-0 13-0 80.3 +1.8 2 2. Ohio State 8-0 13-0 78.6 +1.7 3 3. Clemson 8-0 13-0 74.8 +1.6 4 4. USC 7-1 12-1 47.3 +1.0 L@Utah 43-42 6 5. Tennessee 8-0 11-1 39.6 +23.4 @Georgia 7 6. Michigan 8-0 11-1 16.7 +4.2 @OhioSt 8 7. Alabama 7-1 11-2 13.0 +2.1 @Tenn 52-49, =Georgia 15 8. Oregon 7-1 11-2 8.9 +5.9 @Georgia 49-3, =USC 10 9. Mississippi 8-1 10-2 8.2 +0.8 @LSU 45-20, Alabama 11 10. UCLA 7-1 10-2 7.5 +0.7 @Oregon 45-30, USC 9 11. Penn State 6-2 10-2 6.7 -1.3 @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31 23 12. Kansas St 6-2 10-3 4.8 +4.6 Tulane 17-10, @TCU 38-28, @Baylor 5 13. TCU 8-0 10-3 4.1 -34.6 @Texas, @Baylor, =KState 16 14. Illinois 7-1 10-3 3.4 +1.0 @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt 13 15. Utah 6-2 9-3 2.1 -3.4 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Oregon 20 16. UNC 7-1 10-3 1.3 +0.9 @Notre 45-32, @Wake, =Clemson 12 17. Syracuse 6-2 9-3 0.6 -5.5 @Clemson 27-21, Notre 41-24, @Wake 19 18. LSU 6-2 9-3 0.5 -0.1 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, Alabama new 19. Duke 5-3 9-3 0.4 +0.4 @Kans 35-27, @GTech 23-20ot, UNC 38-35 21 20. Texas 5-3 8-4 0.3 +0.1 Alab20-19, TTech37-34ot, @Okst41-34, @KSt new 21. Baylor 5-3 8-4 0.2 +0.2 @BYU26-20ot, OKst36-25, @WVa43-40, @Tex 18 22. Wake Forest 6-2 8-4 0.1 -0.5 Clem 51-45ot, @Lou 48-21, @NCSt, @Duke 14 23. Oklahoma St 6-2 8-4 0.1 -3.6 @TCU 43-40ot, @KSt 48-0, @Kans, @Okla new 24. Oregon St 6-2 8-4 0.1 +0.1 USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash, Ore new 25. Purdue 5-3 8-4 0.1 +0.1 @PSU 35-31, @Syr 32-29, @Wisc 35-24, @ILL
Dropped out: #17 NC State (8-4), #22 Tulane (10-3), #24 FSU (8-4), #25 Washington State (8-4)
And the further down the chart we go, the more actual losses these teams have and we also run into a slew of projected 8-4 teams. Normally at this stage there are a lot more teams with some real hope. The teams projected to be 8-4 might only have one loss (like North Carolina), or more of the teams with two losses have a decent probability of winning out. Not right now; the teams at the bottom of the Projection have several losses and more are on their way. They have a token Percentage to make the Playoff based on their Top 25 finish and that's really it. Normally a team projected to finish #20 after week 9 has at least a 1.0% chance, but our #20 is Texas, who is 5-3 and really has 0% chance. And they're projected to lose another game! For comparison, last year's final Committee standings ranked just one 8-4 team.
The glut of projected 8-4 teams means that the bottom of the Top 25 here is essentially random; teams will move in and out as they have good or bad performances, and any one team is so close to another there's no real separation. Why Purdue and not 8-4 Wisconsin who beat them? Why Oregon State and not 8-4 Washington who is projected to beat them? Just a 1/100th of a point here or there in the formula really. And the Committee of course will do what it does. The first Committee Standings coming out tomorrow will actually help a lot in sorting out the bottom of our Projected Final Top 25, by showing exactly where they stand right now relative to other teams. The 3-loss teams won't appear in it, but where the 2-loss teams are placed will reveal their current value.
The list also has no Group of Five teams for the first time with the exit of Tulane. It's a curious case, too. The Green Wave didn't even play and their projected record fell from 12-1 to 10-3. Here's where it gets weird: Tulane beat Kansas State, who had the biggest win of their season beating Oklahoma State. You would think that would cause Tulane's Strength rating to get pulled upward in concert, but no: almost all of Tulane's other opponents did worse than expected. Especially Alcorn State, who lost to lowly Grambling, a loss that hurt Tulane even more than K-State's huge win!
The upshot was that Tulane now narrowly loses to Cincinnati. Which gives Cincy home field for the American title game. Hence Tulane's 3 losses. But why isn't Cincy in the Final Top 25 then? They lost this weekend to UCF and project to 11-2 which keeps them just outside.
When we start factoring in the Committee's current top 25 there will be some change here, but not that much: more of that happens later, since the Committee's view of things becomes more and more relevant each week, as there are fewer games left to be played.
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