Nothing changed at the top of our Playoff Projection; the top four teams either won (#2 Ohio State, #3 Clemson) or didn't play (#1 Georgia, #4 USC). But those outside and looking in had some bad news, though it was nothing they did wrong.
The problem was previous #9 Texas's loss to Oklahoma State, which set up the Cowboys as TCU's opponent in the Big 12 title game. TCU survived against Kansas State and now looks again like a 12-1 conference champ, putting them roughly on par with #4 USC. That's bad news for the 11-1 teams that aren't projected to make their conference title game, like Tennessee and Michigan, whose odds drop by double digits and slide a spot along with now-#8 Alabama. TCU moves from #10 to #5, just outside the Playoff zone.
Note that all of these teams—TCU, Tennessee, Michigan, and Alabama—control their destiny to the Playoff. Even Mississippi holds a key to the SEC championship game and a guaranteed Playoff berth. That's why their upset loss to #19 LSU doesn't knock them down more than a few spots. #9 Penn State takes advantage of their loss, and UCLA's expected loss to Oregon, to move to #9. The Nittany Lions don't control their destiny however.
SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 8 (10/24)
LW Rnk Team Rec Proj %Odds %Chg Losses (actuals in bold) 1 1. Georgia 7-0 13-0 78.5 +2.6 2 2. Ohio State 7-0 13-0 76.9 +2.5 3 3. Clemson 8-0 13-0 73.2 +2.4 4 4. USC 6-1 12-1 46.4 +5.6 L@Utah 43-42 10 5. TCU 7-0 12-1 38.7 +29.5 @Texas 5 6. Tennessee 7-0 11-1 16.2 -15.0 @Georgia 6 7. Michigan 7-0 11-1 12.5 -13.1 @OhioSt 7 8. Alabama 7-1 11-2 10.9 -7.2 @Tenn 52-49, =Georgia 12 9. Penn State 6-1 10-2 8.1 +2.0 @Michigan 41-17, OhioSt 8 10. Mississippi 7-1 10-2 7.4 -2.9 @LSU 45-20, Alabama 11 11. UCLA 6-1 10-2 6.8 +0.1 @Oregon 45-30, USC 13 12. Syracuse 6-1 10-2 6.1 +0.6 @Clemson 27-21, @Wake 14 13. Utah 5-2 10-2 5.4 +0.6 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32 new 14. Oklahoma St 6-1 10-3 3.7 +3.7 @TCU 43-40ot, @KState, =TCU 15 15. Oregon 6-1 10-3 3.1 -0.3 @Georgia 49-3, Utah, =USC 16 16. Illinois 6-1 10-3 2.4 -0.3 @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt 17 17. NC State 5-2 9-3 1.2 -0.5 @Clemson 30-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou 18 18. Wake Forest 6-1 9-3 0.6 -0.4 Clemson 51-45ot, @Lou, @NCSt 25 19. LSU 6-2 9-3 0.5 +0.4 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, Alabama 21 20. UNC 6-1 9-4 0.4 0.0 @Notre 45-32, @Wake, @NCst, =Clem 9 21. Texas 5-3 9-3 0.3 -9.5 Alabama 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34 new 22. Tulane 7-1 12-1 0.2 +0.2 SMiss 27-24 new 23. Kansas St 5-2 8-4 0.2 +0.2 Tulane 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Texas, @Baylor 24 24. Florida St 4-3 8-4 0.1 0.0 Wake 31-21, @NCSt 19-17, Clem 34-28, @Syr new 25. Washington St 4-3 8-4 0.1 +0.1 Ore 44-41, @USC 24-10, @OreSt 24-10, Utah
Dropped out: #19 UCF (9-4), #20 South Alabama (11-2), #22 Purdue (8-4), #23 Minnesota (8-4)
Beyond that, not too much happened that changed things in a big way. As mentioned Oregon was supposed to beat UCLA, and Clemson was supposed to get past Syracuse (an Orange win would have really shaken things up). Due to the Oklahoma State loss knocking Texas to #21, UCLA and Syracuse's odds actually bumped up a bit, while Oklahoma State's entry at #14 pushed Oregon's odds down. LSU's upset win improved their odds from nearly impossible to just-a-little-less impossible.
In the lower rungs, Kansas State came back in the top 25 despite losing to TCU. The key was Tulane's surge into the top 25. And the key to that was UCF's terrible 34-13 loss to East Carolina. That loss knocked UCF out of consideration and made Tulane the go-to team from the American at 12-1, with a bonus win at K-State. And suddenly that loss doesn't hurt the Wildcats like it did before.
And Washington State peeks in at #25, at least for now. The Cougars have three losses already, so their ranking reflects where they might end up, not any alleged odds of making the Playoff (even 0.1% is too generous). They get in because Purdue and Minnesota both rank below Wisconsin (now projected at 8-4 again), who Washington State beat.
And finally South Alabama falls out after losing to Troy. They still look like the Sun Belt winners to us, but that's probably not going to get them in the Final Committee Top 25.
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