Not many people were looking at Friday night's games as very crucial, nor will most remark that Wyoming pulled off a major upset against Air Force, but the Cowboys' win spoils a potential undefeated season by the Falcons.
Air Force was a 15 point favorite, ranked #39 to Wyoming's #119 in our Baysian-updated power rating. Air Force started the year #56 but two solid wins—48-17 over FCS power Northern Iowa, and 41-10 over Pac-12's Colorado—upgraded their outlook enough that we projected them to get past Boise State for the Mountain division title, and top Fresno for the MWC championship at 13-0. At least, game-by-game, that's what they had the potential to do.
Obviously that's in the past now. We had them projected 18th in the final Playoff standings, too, with a decent chance to be the New Year's Six rep from the non-Power Five conferences. That, too, is in serious doubt.
Air Force's rosy forecast depended mainly on their easy schedule; they really only face one team—Boise State—that ranks in the top 50, so that game with their only big hurdle to 12-0, it seemed. Another top 50 foe—Fresno State—awaited if they made the conference championship game.
But losing to what looks like a bottom 25 opponent in Wyoming makes their odds of beating Boise a lot lower, and introduced the possibility of many more losses along the way. Air Force seemed to have the perfect conditions—a strong team with a very weak schedule—for an undefeated season, but either the Falcons are not nearly as good as their first few games indicated, they lack consistency, or they got overconfident quickly and felt Wyoming wasn't a serious threat.
It's also possible that they just aren't a good road team. After racking up over 1,000 rushing yards in their first two (home) games, the Falcons had under 50 yards rushing at the half.
And maybe Wyoming is a lot better than we think; they're 3-1 now after we projected a 2-10 season for the Cowboys.
As always, two games is not enough to tell how a team is going to do; there are a LOT of big surprises in game three, it seems. And it leaves Air Force a big question mark going forward.
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