Week Four Five is when things should start getting serious. But across the country, big matchups are still relatively few and far between.
The biggest game on our radar is #4 Oklahoma at #22 TCU, a game that could quickly end most of Oklahoma's hopes and make the Horned Frogs a contender. The Sooners' loss last week was a blow but not a fatal one as they still outrank a slew of Big Twelve hopefuls including TCU, #21 Baylor, and #22 Kansas State. A TCU win would put Oklahoma in the same "wannabe" category, and weighed down by two losses. TCU is a bit of a mystery still, having played just two games against FBS opponents, one of those being hapless Colorado. Oklahoma is about a touchdown favorite and I expect an even tougher challenge than that. But Baylor has a tough challenge too, being only a 2 point favorite vs. 3-0 Oklahoma State, and Kansas State doesn't have a gimme itself vs. Texas Tech. The Big 12 has a lot of parity and it may keep the conference out of the Playoff again.
The other clash between top 25 Playoff Contenders is #12 Clemson and #18 NC State. Just a few weeks ago this was a much bigger game—it looked like NC State's only loss, and the one that prevented then from winning the ACC and going 13-0. Since then, NC State's forecast has faded to include 3 losses, while Clemson looks like a 10-2 team also possibly shut out of the conference title game. The winner here has the inside track to challenge #6 FSU as the new ACC favorite. The Seminoles have a "prove it" game against Wake Forest, as in, "prove you deserve to be forecast to finish 12-1!" Their road to the ACC title is full of razor-close wins so at any point we might see their odds drop, which is an opening for either Clemson or NC State to take advantage.
SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings with projected record & Line for next opponent
Rnk Team Rec Proj Line Opponent 1. Georgia 4-0 13-0 -28.0 @ Missouri 2. Ohio State 4-0 13-0 -40.5 Rutgers 3. Alabama 4-0 12-1 -17.5 @ Arkansas 4. Oklahoma 3-1 12-1 -6.5 @ #22 TCU 5. Oregon 3-1 12-1 -17.0 Stanford 6. Florida St 4-0 12-1 -7.0 Wake Forest 7. Michigan 4-0 11-1 -11.0 @ Iowa 8. Minnesota 4-0 12-1 -12.5 Purdue 9. USC 4-0 11-1 -25.5 Arizona St 10. Tennessee 4-0 10-2 ----- idle 11. Washington 4-0 11-1 -2.5 @ UCLA 12. Clemson 4-0 10-2 -6.5 #18 NC State 13. Utah 3-1 10-3 -10.5 Oregon St 14. Penn State 4-0 9-3 -26.5 Northwestern 15. Notre Dame 2-2 9-3 ----- idle 16. BYU 3-1 10-2 -24.5 Utah St 17. Pittsburgh 3-1 10-3 -22.0 Georgia Tech 18. NC State 4-0 9-3 +6.5 @ #12 Clemson 19. Texas A&M 3-1 9-3 +4.0 @ Miss State 20. Cincinnati 3-1 12-1 -9.5 @ Tulsa 21. Baylor 3-1 9-4 -2.0 Oklahoma St 22. TCU 3-0 9-3 +6.5 #4 Oklahoma 23. Kansas St 3-1 9-3 -8.0 Texas Tech 24. Wisconsin 2-2 9-3 -7.0 Illinois 25. South Alabama 3-1 12-1 -9.0 @ UL-Lafayette
Other close games include #11 Washington at UCLA. Both are 4-0 but the Huskies became darlings of our projection recently while UCLA fell to a 7-5 outlook. The Bruins could help reverse that with a win Saturday. Washington has the lowest projection of any 11-1 team partly due to uncertainty they can pull it off, and also lack of big wins if they do. As well as having #5 Oregon and #9 USC project to 11-1, with #13 Utah currently the tiebreaker winner to play in the conference title game. Unlike the parity-ridden Big 12, the Pac-12 has a lot of separation between the haves and have-nots, which gives them several good candidates for the Playoff—provided that one comes out of the pack relatively unscathed. For that, Washington and USC are the conference's best hope as they are still unbeaten. #13 Utah has a loss to Florida and faces tough Oregon State next. #5 Oregon has a terrible loss on the books so it might be best for the conference if they lost to Stanford, though that would be a considerable upset.
Texas A&M is a slight underdog to Mississippi State, and their 9-3 projection includes that as a loss. In other words, the Aggies can improve their ranking with a win over the Bulldogs, who are highly-rated but projected 8-4 vs. a very tough schedule. Ultimately A&M still controls their fate due to future games with Alabama and then, if they've done really well, Georgia. Both the Tide and the Bulldogs have road games where they're strongly favored, basically jockeying for position in the top three of any ranking system.
The Big Ten became more interesting with the surge of #8 Minnesota. The Gophers look to be for real and they can solidify that against Purdue. #7 Michigan, like Minnesota, looks capable of sweeping their schedule outside of #3 Ohio State. But first they have to win at Iowa, something that hasn't been easy for them in a while. The spread looks about right from our vantage point—not easy, but a solid, low-scoring win. #14 Penn State is quietly waiting for their chance in the big games, while #24 Wisconsin is already a long-shot at 2-2 and faces another potential upstart team in Illinois, who ranks #12 in Strength right now! We'll see if that holds up.
Outside the Power Five: our only interlopers are #20 Cincinnati and #25 South Alabama, both projected to go 12-1 but facing fairly solid challenges at Tulsa and Louisiana-Lafayette this weekend. The odds look about right for both—neither is a gimme. After outperforming all season, the lines might have finally caught up to the Jaguars; they would have been hefty underdogs had this game been played in week one.
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