Week 3 is here and we're still plagued with FBS vs. FCS matchups. When will they go away? At least among our top teams—our projected final finish for the Playoff—there are only three of those. But there are only two games between top 25 teams
Our #9 team, Oregon, hosts #12 BYU in a huge game for both teams. For BYU we consider it their only probable loss. A win at Oregon puts them on track for 12-0, and into a grey area for Playoff consideration. Now that Notre Dame has 2 losses, a win over the Irish won't get them there, and Oregon already lost to Georgia 49-3. So even going 12-0, the Cougars probably need one of their other opponents—Baylor, or Arkansas—to win their conference, or nearly so, to push BYU into the top 4. This game is big for Oregon because it really reveals what kind of team we'll be looking at the rest of the season: the one who got destroyed by Georgia, or the one who beat Eastern Washington 70-14.
Rnk Team Rec? This week Line 1. Georgia 13-0 @South Carolina -24.5 2. Ohio State 13-0 #25 Toledo -31.0 3. Oklahoma 13-0 @Nebraska -13.5 4. Alabama 12-1 UL-Monroe -49.5 5. Clemson 12-1 Louisiana Tech -33.0 6. Utah 11-2 San Diego St -21.0 7. Michigan 11-1 UConn -47.0 8. NC State 11-1 Texas Tech -9.5 9. Oregon 11-2 #12 BYU -4.0 10. Tennessee 10-2 Akron -47.5 11. Penn State 10-2 @Auburn -3.0 12. BYU 11-1 @#9 Oregon +3.5 13. Oregon St 10-2 Montana St (-18.5) 14. Marshall 13-0 @Bowling Green -18.0 15. Miami FL 10-3 @Texas A&M +6.0 16. Pittsburgh 10-2 @Western Mich -11.0 17. Purdue 10-2 @Syracuse +1.0 18. Air Force 13-0 @Wyoming -15.5 19. Arkansas 9-3 Missouri St (-20.0) 20. Mississippi 9-3 @Georgia Tech -14.5 21. Kentucky 9-3 Youngstown St (-33.5) 22. Notre Dame 9-3 California -10.0 23. Cincinnati 12-1 @Miami Ohio -21.0 24. Baylor 9-4 Texas State -31.0 25. Toledo 12-1 @#2 Ohio State -31.0
Any Major Upsets?
Other than that game it's a pretty dull week on paper, which is why we need upsets. We're looking at our #25, Toledo, vs. #2 Ohio State. Can the Rockets shock the world? If they do, they're a potential 13-0 which would make them a potential Playoff team, given a win over Ohio State. We can dream can't we? The Buckeyes are a 31 point favorite, much more than Notre Dame was vs. Marshall. In all likelihood both teams remain right where they are in our rankings.
The other upset alert we can see is #3 Oklahoma at Nebraska. Nebraska is like a wounded animal right now, cornered in its den. Oklahoma is the predator, but not particularly hungry. Do the Sooners really want to beat up on the Cornhuskers right now? Is there any time in the last 50 years they've cared less about this game? Nebraska is a wild card, they might fold like a deck of cards and lose by 50 or come out fighting and keep it close. They're good at keeping things close, that's been they're style all last year and so far this year. Ironically, they might get the last bounce right after Scott Frost is gone.
A few other games are interesting, too: #15 Miami travels to Texas A&M and is the underdog to the ailing Aggies. It's one of two games we expect the Hurricanes to lose, so a win here really boosts them. A&M is projected to be just 4-8 by ESPN's FPI, while we still have them going 8-4, so this home game will answer a lot of questions. And while our projection favors #17 Purdue slightly, the oddsmakers have Syracuse winning at home.
There are a few huge lines here: Alabama favored by almost 50 over ULM, Michigan -47 vs. UConn, and Tennessee by 47.5 over Akron. All three of those dwarf the estimates we make for the FCS matchups this week: We see #13 Oregon State beating a solid Montana State team by less than 20, which is about what #19 Arkansas should do vs. Missouri State. #21 Kentucky is a near-5-touchdown favorite over Youngstown State but far short of the biggest spreads on the board.
How About Minor Upsets?
A few other games on the board have single-digit odds. #11 Penn State is a very slight favorite at Auburn. And #8 NC State is a pretty slim favorite at Texas Tech. We agree with the former but don't rate the Red Raiders very highly and make them 2-touchdown underdogs. But the Wildcats have yet to prove themselves, slipping just a bit each week so far.
And speaking of proving themselves, #22 Notre Dame isn't a guarantee at home vs. California. But I have the feeling they'll be in "Must Win" mode this weekend and cover easily. They need to get their new coach his very first victory, and if they don't rise to the occasion now the whole season is a bust.
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