Bayesian update of pre-season ratings based on results through 9/17/2022 (week 3). Projected records based on resultant ratings.
Rnk Team Pre Wk2 Wk3 Rec-Proj Rating 1. Georgia 1 1 1 12-0 39.90 2. Ohio State 2 2 2 12-0 36.03 3. Alabama 3 3 3 12-0 30.99 4. Michigan 4 4 4 11-1 28.16 5. Oklahoma 6 7 5 12-0 25.13 6. Tennessee 7 5 6 10-2 24.81 7. Penn State 14 12 7 10-2 23.90 8. Oregon 26 11 8 11-1 22.96 9. Utah 8 6 9 10-2 21.98 10. Mississippi 19 17 10 11-1 20.93 11. North Carolina St 10 13 11 11-1 19.35 12. Cincinnati 15 8 12 11-1 19.12 13. Minnesota 29 23 13 9-3 18.92 14. Texas 23 19 14 10-2 18.66 15. Clemson 9 16 15 11-1 18.02 16. Notre Dame 5 10 16 10-2 17.57 17. Oregon St 41 30 17 10-2 17.29 18. Brigham Young 13 9 18 10-2 17.26 19. Purdue 25 18 19 8-4 17.09 20. Michigan St 12 14 20 8-4 16.69 21. Kentucky 22 21 21 9-3 16.60 22. Wisconsin 20 34 22 9-3 16.33 23. Mississippi St 16 15 23 7-5 16.01 24. Pittsburgh 21 26 24 10-2 15.77 25. Texas A&M 18 27 25 8-4 15.61 26. Baylor 35 22 26 9-3 15.31 27. Oklahoma St 11 20 27 7-5 15.05 28. Arkansas 32 25 28 7-5 14.65 29. Florida St 31 33 29 8-4 14.14 30. Syracuse 47 32 30 8-4 14.00 31. Miami FL 24 28 31 10-2 13.95 32. TCU 36 29 32 9-3 13.93 33. LSU 38 42 33 6-6 13.66 34. Southern Cal 60 44 34 9-3 13.66 35. Iowa 17 31 35 6-6 12.41 36. Kansas St 40 24 36 6-6 12.15 37. Washington 59 50 37 10-2 11.34 38. Iowa St 46 40 38 7-5 11.33 39. Louisville 30 38 39 6-6 10.22 40. North Carolina 37 41 40 7-5 10.21 41. Boise St 28 35 41 10-2 10.17 42. Maryland 49 47 42 6-6 9.22 43. SMU 39 45 43 8-4 8.83 44. Wake Forest 42 37 44 7-5 8.69 45. Central Florida 53 59 45 8-4 8.34 46. Texas Tech 54 53 46 4-8 7.52 47. Florida 43 43 47 6-6 7.28 48. Auburn 27 36 48 4-8 7.27 49. East Carolina 63 57 49 8-4 6.27 50. Air Force 56 39 50 10-2 6.12 51. West Virginia 70 71 51 2-10 6.00 52. South Carolina 50 49 52 5-7 5.82 53. Texas-San Antonio 45 54 53 10-2 5.58 54. Appalachian St 58 51 54 10-2 5.05 55. Washington St 64 63 55 6-6 4.96 56. Tulane 82 72 56 9-3 4.87 57. UCLA 44 52 57 7-5 4.74 58. Kansas 80 74 58 4-8 4.67 59. Fresno St 34 48 59 9-3 4.59 60. Illinois 66 60 60 4-8 4.49 61. California 61 66 61 6-6 4.24 62. Houston 48 46 62 7-5 3.99 63. Marshall 77 55 63 10-2 3.71 64. Army 81 81 64 8-4 2.55 65. James Madison 84 64 65 9-2 2.26 66. Alabama-Birmingham 67 65 66 9-3 2.04 67. Nebraska 33 56 67 4-8 1.94 68. Missouri 51 61 68 4-8 1.85 69. Stanford 52 67 69 3-9 1.55 70. Virginia Tech 57 62 70 5-7 1.25 71. Liberty 79 76 71 9-3 1.07 72. Memphis 71 69 72 7-5 0.68 73. Arizona St 55 58 73 2-10 0.15 74. Arizona 91 80 74 4-8 -0.32 75. Western Kentucky 74 77 75 9-4 -1.57 76. Toledo 62 70 76 10-2 -2.17 77. South Alabama 109 84 77 9-3 -2.46 78. UNLV 98 89 78 7-5 -2.53 79. Louisiana-Lafayette 78 68 79 8-4 -2.93 80. San Diego St 65 82 80 7-5 -3.06 81. Virginia 72 79 81 5-7 -3.34 82. Rutgers 68 73 82 4-8 -3.46 83. Boston College 73 78 83 3-9 -3.64 84. South Florida 75 88 84 2-10 -3.76 85. Indiana 85 83 85 3-9 -4.38 86. Old Dominion 90 85 86 4-8 -4.61 87. Vanderbilt 102 90 87 3-9 -4.61 88. Southern Miss 103 96 88 8-4 -4.76 89. Troy 87 94 89 5-7 -4.95 90. Georgia St 69 75 90 4-8 -5.57 91. Tulsa 94 99 91 5-7 -5.75 92. San Jose St 96 91 92 8-4 -6.93 93. Western Michigan 97 93 93 5-7 -7.58 94. Eastern Michigan 99 112 94 8-4 -7.61 95. Northwestern 89 87 95 2-10 -7.71 96. Florida Atlantic 107 86 96 6-6 -8.55 97. Georgia Southern 114 97 97 3-9 -8.90 98. Louisiana Tech 112 101 98 7-5 -8.94 99. Coastal Carolina 92 98 99 5-7 -8.95 100. Northern Illinois 76 92 100 6-6 -9.46 101. Middle Tennessee St 110 113 101 6-6 -9.74 102. New Mexico 119 108 102 5-7 -9.75 103. Bowling Green 100 110 103 7-5 -9.96 104. Kent St 106 106 104 6-6 -10.20 105. Colorado 83 95 105 0-12 -10.50 106. Miami OH 101 107 106 7-5 -10.53 107. Arkansas St 122 105 107 4-8 -10.81 108. Duke 123 111 108 3-9 -11.05 109. Central Michigan 104 102 109 5-7 -11.52 110. Rice 120 117 110 4-8 -11.87 111. Wyoming 117 119 111 5-7 -12.08 112. Colorado St 86 103 112 4-8 -13.24 113. North Texas 93 100 113 4-8 -13.48 114. Utah St 88 114 114 2-10 -13.65 115. Georgia Tech 105 104 115 2-10 -13.75 116. Ball St 111 118 116 4-8 -14.24 117. UTEP 95 109 117 3-9 -14.50 118. Ohio U. 116 115 118 4-8 -14.91 119. Nevada 121 120 119 4-8 -15.52 120. Buffalo 113 116 120 2-10 -16.30 121. Navy 108 121 121 1-11 -18.91 122. UNC-Charlotte 115 126 122 2-10 -19.37 123. Louisiana-Monroe 129 123 123 2-10 -21.51 124. Texas St-San Marcos 127 127 124 2-10 -22.87 125. Connecticut 126 124 125 3-9 -23.30 126. Akron 118 125 126 1-11 -23.63 127. Temple 128 129 127 2-10 -24.02 128. Massachusetts 125 128 128 2-10 -24.46 129. New Mexico St 124 122 129 3-9 -24.61 130. Hawai`i 130 130 130 1-12 -31.13 131. Florida Int'l 131 131 131 1-11 -40.96
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