A Playoff Eliminator is a scheduled game where the winner makes the College Football Playoff and the loser does not, and necessarily, the teams' fates would be flipped if the outcome were changed. For example, last year's Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati game was a Playoff Eliminator; had Notre Dame won, they would have taken Cincy's playoff spot. A Playoff Eliminator can only be recognized in retrospect. Even though it seemed very important at the time, there was no guaranteed that both teams would go undefeated from that point forward, making it into "just another game."
In terms of our expectations and projections for the two teams, however, Notre Dame at Ohio State on Saturday is a Playoff Eliminator. We expect that the winner will make the Playoff and the loser won't. The Buckeyes are #2 in our pre-season power rating and are projected to finish #1 in the Playoff rankings, while Notre Dame is #5 and projected at #6, close but no cigar at 11-1.
No other games are nearly as important. Although, in retrospect, it's possible that Notre Dame - Ohio State is "just another game" and a different game—perhaps Georgia vs. Oregon—is actually a Playoff Eliminator. Here is a rundown on this weekend's games and their ramifications:
Rnk Team Proj Rec Opponent Line 1. Ohio State 13-0 vs. #6 Notre Dame -17.0 2. Georgia 13-0 vs. Oregon -17.0 3. Oklahoma 13-0 vs. UTEP -31.5 4. Utah 13-0 @ Florida -3.0 5. Alabama 12-1 vs. Utah St -41.5 6. Notre Dame 11-1 @ #1 Ohio State +17.0 7. Clemson 12-1 @ GA Tech -21.5 8. Michigan 11-1 vs. Colo St -30.5 9. North Carolina St 11-1 @ East Carolina -11.5 10. Oklahoma St 11-2 vs. Central Mich -21.5 11. Cincinnati 13-0 @ Arkansas +6.5 12. Tennessee 10-2 vs. Ball St -35.0 13. Penn State 10-2 @ Purdue -3.5 14. UCLA 10-2 vs. Bowling Green -23.5 15. BYU 11-1 @ South Florida -12.0 16. Boise St 12-1 @ Oregon St +2.5 17. Texas A&M 9-3 vs. Sam Houston (-23) 18. Miami FL 10-3 vs. Bethune-Cookman (-59) 19. Mississippi 9-3 vs. Troy -21.5 20. Kentucky 9-3 vs. Miami OH -16.0 21. Texas 9-3 vs. UL-Monroe -37.5 22. UTSA 12-1 vs. Houston +4.0 23. Louisville 9-3 @ Syracuse -4.5 24. Michigan St 9-3 vs. Western Mich -22.5 25. Wisconsin 9-4 vs. Illinois St (-36)
• #1 Ohio State vs. #6 Notre Dame
• #2 Georgia vs. Oregon
Like we said, this is the big one. Ohio State is a huge favorite; if Notre Dame wins the Irish will immediately hop to #1 in our projected Final Top 25, since they're have wins over two projected Power Fiver conference champs (Ohio State and Clemson). The Buckeyes would probably fall to #5 since they'd have a conference championship unlike Alabama.
Georgia is similarly favored to beat Oregon, but we have them winning by about 23, as the Bulldogs are our top-rated team and Oregon is just #26. The Pac-12 is in tenuous shape this year and an Oregon win would go a long way to cementing the hopes of the Pac-12 champ, whoever that may be. Right now Utah gets in at 13-0 but probably not at 12-1. Oregon would become another real contender with a win; right now we project them at 9-4, losing to Utah in the title game.
• #3 Oklahoma vs. UTEP
• #5 Alabama vs. Utah State
Two likely blowouts by the oddsmakers, these are really introductions to the new versions of each team. Oklahoma has more to prove as they're only #9 in the AP poll; we have them #6. Alabama is an almost-universal #1 (though we rank them #3). Any difficulty with UTEP will cast further doubt on the Sooners. Alabama struggling at all would be a shock but probably be excused as "looking ahead" to Texas.
• #4 Utah at Florida
Utah is only our #8-rated team but the easy Pac-12 schedule puts them in the Playoff. It also means they're vulnerable to a loss, or being downgraded due to schedule. The Utes have their biggest non-conference test against Florida; we expect them to win by nearly 10 points but the oddsmakers have them by just three. Losing this game would due huge damage to Utah's chances and to the Pac-12 overall. It would hurt them a lot more than a loss would hurt Ohio State, for example.
• #7 Clemson at Georgia Tech
• #8 Michigan vs. Colorado State
• #9 NC State at East Carolina
•#10 Oklahoma State vs. Central Michigan
These teams are all expected to lose one regular-season game, which generally ends up killing their Playoff hopes. Clemson can still win the ACC but miss the playoff, while Michigan and NC State wouldn't be able to win their conference title. Oklahoma State still makes the Big 12 final but loses again to Oklahoma
So that being the case, obviously they can't afford an unexpected 2nd loss at the beginning of the year to a double-digit underdog. For Clemson, a close call due to a poor offensive showing would evoke memories of last season's struggles, Michigan, NC State, and OK State want to start the year off on a good note, too.
• #11 Cincinnati at Arkansas
This is a hugely important game for Cincinnati, and represents their only hope of repeating as a Playoff team. They need to beat Arkansas, and then hope Arkansas has a fantastic season. Like Notre Dame going 11-1 pushed 13-0 Cincy to the Playoff last year, a 12-1 Arkansas could put 13-0 Cincy in the Playoff this year. The trick is that we have the Razorbacks as 6-6 this year, and the oddsmakers have Arkansas a 6 1/2 point favorite. A 12-1 Cincinnati not only doesn't make the Playoff, they might not even finish in the Committee's top 25 and even a 12-1 finish is no guarantee of the Big Six bowl bid that goes to the top non-Power Five team.
• #12 Tennessee vs. Ball State
• #14 UCLA vs. Bowling Green
Two more teams with a lot to prove. Tennessee is a stellar #7 in our pre-season, so they've got a lot to live up to. UCLA is just #44 but their slight schedule puts them at 10-2. Obviously there's not a lot of room for error for the Bruins to hit that mark. These opening games against outmatched opponents will be the first indication if we overrate Tennessee and/or have way too high expectations for a mediocre UCLA.
• #13 Penn State at Purdue
• #23 Louisville at Syracuse
The Nittany Lions are favored by just over a field goal but our ratings suggest this is an overtime game (double overtime!) waiting to happen. And it falls the Boilermakers way, a lot of things change immediately in our Big Ten projections. First, Purdue goes from 9-3 to 10-2. Second, that makes Purdue the winner of the West division instead of Wisconsin, making the Badgers 9-3 instead of 9-4. Also that makes Purdue 10-3 since they add a loss to Ohio State. With Penn State updated to 9-3, you can see there would be a lot of 3-loss Big Ten teams jockeying for position in the bottom half of our projected Final Committee Top 25.
Louisville also opens with a conference game on the road, and similarly are just a slight favorite. The Cardinals are just 30th in our ratings so we're curious to see how they start the year.
• #15 BYU at South Florida
• #16 Boise State at Oregon State
Two non-Power Five teams hoping for a Big Six bowl bid or, in BYU's case, maybe even better. With Cincinnati in the mix for that bid, every win helps. And since the two teams play each other it will probably be settled on the field with a Big Six Bowl eliminator in November. But in week one both teams face challenges, and both still have to prove that they're even going to be good this season. BYU ranks #13 in our pre-season ratings due to scads of returning talent, while Boise State is #28 but has an easier schedule. The Cougars play Notre Dame so they have a legit shot at becoming a Playoff contender, where going undefeated is a must. Boise State's stakes aren't that high, and they are an underdog in week one (though not in our book, where the Broncos win by a point).
• #17 Texas A&M vs. Sam Houston State
• #18 Miami vs. Bethune-Cookman
• #25 Wisconsin vs. Illinois State
Several years ago the Power Five conferences floated the ridiculous idea of only playing other Power Five teams, decided that was stupid, but went right on scheduling FCS teams. Here we have three cases of various blowout potential, from Miami being a 59 point favorite (by our numbers) to Sam Houston State being a reasonable challenge for the Aggies. The Bearkats went 11-1 last season and if they're still good this year they might keep it within three touchdowns against Texas A&M. We have Wisconsin beating Illinois State by around 5 TDs.
• #19 Mississippi vs Troy
• #20 Kentucky vs. Miami Ohio
• #21 Texas vs. ULM
• #23 Michigan State vs. Western Michigan
These are the also-rans, teams expected to have good years but not threaten to make the Playoff. Losing any of these games would be an elimination. Texas, in particular, is one to watch here as they're rated high as usual and any sign of struggle vs. ULM will be jumped on (if Alabama struggles, they were "looking ahead" to Texas, but if Texas struggles, that won't apply).
• #22 UTSA vs. Houston
Finally, an important game for UTSA's shot at a top 25 finish, and also for Houston. We have UTSA finishing 11-1 and Houston 10-2, and if the Cougars win that flips around and Houston has the better chance of being on the Committee's final list.
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