After a more-mild-than-wild week 4 where most of the top teams underperformed, a few key developments created a couple of big new contenders, and some shifting in the Pac-12 left three teams pegged to finish with just one loss.
First things first, one team fell out of the top four, and it wasn't Oklahoma who lost to Kansas State. Instead it was Clemson, who beat Wake Forest in double overtime to remain unbeaten, but now looks likely to finish just 10-2 with a "new" loss to FSU. The Tigers fell to #12, down 33%. They rank just #20 in the power rating used for this projection.
Replacing the Tigers is Alabama, while Oklahoma hangs on at #4 though dropping 25% in odds. Oregon is #5 and Florida State is #6, both projected 12-1 conference champs which normally insures a bid, but both have a fatal flaw. Oregon's is their big loss to Georgia, while FSU wouldn't pass the "eye test." Alabama's projected loss to Georgia is much closer—barely a field goal—and Oklahoma's loss to Kansas State wasn't terrible. Meanwhile FSU rates as a borderline top 25 team; only their easy schedule makes a 12-1 run look likely and they will have to survive several close calls to get there.
While Georgia still takes the top spot, for the first time they aren't #1 in our power rating; now Ohio State is the favorite to win the national championship. But our Bayesian power rating disagrees with our FBS-only Strength and the All-Divisions Strength, with Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama the #1 teams in each.
SportsRatings Projected Final Standings for the College Football Playoff: post-week 4 (9/25/2022):
LW Rnk Team Rec Proj %Odds %chg Losses (actuals in bold) 1 1. Georgia 4-0 13-0 77.1 +2.1 2 2. Ohio State 4-0 13-0 75.7 +2.0 5 3. Alabama 4-0 12-1 50.8 +18.1 @Georgia 3 4. Oklahoma 3-1 12-1 45.3 -24.9 KansasSt 41-34 6 5. Oregon 3-1 12-1 37.9 +14.7 @Georgia 49-3 new 6. Florida St 4-0 12-1 27.9 +27.9 @NC State 7 7. Michigan 4-0 11-1 12.0 +0.6 @OhioSt new 8. Minnesota 4-0 12-1 10.6 +10.6 =OhioSt 22 9. USC 4-0 11-1 10.1 +9.2 @Utah 10 10. Tennessee 4-0 10-2 7.5 +0.3 Alabama, @Georgia 17 11. Washington 4-0 11-1 7.0 +3.6 @Oregon 4 12. Clemson 4-0 10-2 6.6 -33.4 @FSU, @NotreDame 12 13. Utah 3-1 10-3 6.2 -0.2 @Fla 29-26, @Ore, =Ore 14 14. Penn State 4-0 9-3 4.6 -1.0 @Mich, Minn, OhioSt 18 15. Notre Dame 2-2 9-3 4.2 +1.2 @OhioSt 21-10, Marshall 26-21, @USC 19 16. BYU 3-1 10-2 3.7 +1.1 @Oregon 41-20, =NotreDame 16 17. Pittsburgh 3-1 10-3 3.3 -0.5 Tenn OT, @Lou, =FSU 9 18. NC State 4-0 9-3 2.9 -6.8 @Clem, @Syr, @Lou new 19. Texas A&M 3-1 9-3 2.4 +2.4 AppSt 17-14, @MissSt, @Alabama 24 20. Cincinnati 3-1 12-1 1.4 +1.2 @Arkansas 31-24 21 21. Baylor 3-1 9-4 1.0 -0.3 @BYU OT, @Okla, @Texas, =Okla 23 22. TCU 3-0 9-3 0.8 +0.3 Oklahoma, @Texas, @Baylor new 23. Kansas St 3-1 9-3 0.6 +0.6 Tulane 17-10, @TCU, @Baylor 25 24. Wisconsin 2-2 9-3 0.4 +0.3 WashSt 17-14, @OhioSt 52-21, Minn new 25. South Alabama 3-1 12-1 0.2 +0.2 @UCLA 32-31
Dropped out: #8 Mississippi (8-4); #11 Texas (8-4); #13 Oregon St (8-4); #15 Miami FL (7-5); #20 Kentucky (8-4)
In addition to Florida State, who was projected at just 8-4 last week, #8 Minnesota made a huge debut. The Gophers were projected 9-3 last week but a 34-7 demolition of Michigan State added to their already-impressive resume to push their projection to 12-0 for the regular season! They're still not close to Ohio State so for now they're 12-1 but within striking distance of the Playoff.
And the Pac-12 candidates kept moving up, too. USC wasn't dominant against Oregon State but the Strength power rating loves them and that helped move them to #9 at 11-1, with Washington also set to be 11-1. Both however lose the Pac-12 tiebreaker to Utah to get in the conference championship game against Oregon. But that's how close things are, there are four teams vying to be 12-1 conference champs. Part of that is because the league is pretty weak this year, and the good teams are separating themselves from the bad ones.
Speaking of weak leagues...the ACC took a big hit with ex-#15 Miami's embarrassing loss to MTSU. Underperformances by Clemson and #17 Pitt allowed FSU to emerge as the conference champ, but that could change. NC State is pegged to beat FSU at home but still slipped to 9-3 with added losses to Syracuse and Louisville.
Other teams that dropped out include former #8 Mississippi, who struggled to beat Tulsa and now projects to just 8-4; #11 Texas who dropped an overtime game at Texas Tech to stand 2-2; Oregon State, who played well against USC but fell short; and #20 Kentucky, who beat Northern Illinois 31-23, weakness that dropped their projected record down a notch to 8-4.
More new entries: Texas A&M is back on the chart after a mild upset of Arkansas propped them back up to 9-3; Kansas State of course got a boost from beating Oklahoma—the Wildcats were looking like a 6-6 team after losing to Tulane and suddenly they are battling TCU and Baylor for the 2nd slot in the championship game. And South Alabama continues their impressive run of overperformance by beating Louisiana Tech 38-14. With their schedule 12-1 is not at all out of the question but won't get them much of a ranking. But it should get them in the final top 25, if their only loss is on the road by 1 point to UCLA.
Comments