It wasn't a super-eventful college football weekend but there's a lot of change in our projections for the final College Football Playoff Committee rankings. Oregon increased their odds by double digits, Mississippi jumped, Texas re-entered the top 25 in a big way, and Washington and USC gave the Pac-12 five teams in the mix.
The top three were unchanged as they all won by 41, 56, and 35 points. The fourth place battle between projected 1-loss Clemson and 1-loss Alabama flipped for now to Clemson; as a conference champ they should have an advantage, and right now we have Georgia beating Alabama fairly handily. Not as handily as they beat Oregon, however, and that's why even with a Pac-12 title the Ducks are on the outside looking in.
But Oregon's solid win over BYU did increase their rating enough to tip the Pac-12 title game to the Ducks from Utah, who falls out of the top ten.
Projected Final Playoff Committee Top 25: post-week 3 (Sept 18)
LW Rnk Team Rec %Odds %Chg Chg Losses projected (actuals in bold) 1 1. Georgia 13-0 75.1 +0.4 2 2. Ohio State 13-0 73.7 +0.3 3 3. Oklahoma 13-0 70.3 +0.3 5 4. Clemson 12-1 40.0 +3.5 ↑1 @Notre Dame 4 5. Alabama 12-1 32.6 -11.3 ↓1 @Georgia 9 6. Oregon 12-1 23.1 +15.7 ↑3 @Georgia 7 7. Michigan 11-1 11.4 +0.2 @OhioSt 20 8. Mississippi 11-1 10.0 +8.1 ↑12 Alabama 8 9. NC State 11-1 9.6 -0.3 ↓1 @Clemson 10 10. Tennessee 10-2 7.2 +0.1 Alabama, @Georgia new 11. Texas 10-3 6.8 +6.8 + Alabama, =OK, =OK 6 12. Utah 10-3 6.4 -8.2 ↓6 @Fla, @Oregon, =Oregon 13 13. Oregon St 10-2 6.0 0.0 @Utah, Oregon 11 14. Penn State 10-2 5.6 -1.2 ↓3 @Michigan, OhioSt 15 15. Miami FL 10-3 4.2 -1.1 @TexAM, @Clem, =Clem 16 16. Pittsburgh 10-2 3.8 -1.2 Tenn, @Miami new 17. Washington 10-2 3.4 +3.4 + OreSt, @Oregon 22 18. Notre Dame 10-2 3.0 +1.8 ↑4 @OhioSt, Marshall 12 19. BYU 10-2 2.6 -3.8 ↓7 @Oregon, =Notre Dame 21 20. Kentucky 9-3 2.2 +0.6 ↑1 @Miss, @Tenn, Georgia 24 21. Baylor 9-3 1.3 +0.9 ↑3 @BYU, @OK, @Texas new 22. USC 9-3 0.9 +0.9 + @OreSt, @Utah, Notre Dame new 23. TCU 9-3 0.5 +0.5 + OK, @Texas, @Baylor 23 24. Cincinnati 12-1 0.3 -0.4 ↓1 @Arkansas new 25. Wisconsin 9-4 0.1 +0.1 + WashSt, @OhioSt, @MichSt, =OhioSt
Dropped out: #14 Marshall (11-2); #17 Purdue (8-4); #18 Air Force (10-2); #19 Arkansas (7-5); #25 Toledo (11-2)
Mississippi made a big jump too, from #20 to #8. Beating Georgia Tech 42-0 puts them at #10 in our power ratings and makes them the favorite in road games vs. Texas A&M and Arkansas. The Rebels join Michigan and NC State as 1-loss teams that miss their conference title games.
Texas soars back in out of nowhere, too. It's more due to Kansas State's upset loss to Tulane, which gave the Longhorns the win in their future matchup. Texas still loses to Oklahoma twice in our projection, but coupled with their near-miss vs. Alabama they would place near the top 10, still with a shot at the top four.
Washington upset Michigan State—well, we call it an upset, though they oddsmakers favored the Huskies—and now project to 10-2. They're not the only new Pac-12 team in the mix as USC makes their debut, too. Originally #60 in our power rating, the Trojans have moved up each week and now sit at #34 with a 9-3 projection. The Trojans really shine in unbiased power ratings, where none of last season's baggage is considered: they're #2 in our early Strength power rating. Next week we start to integrate some of those results into our projection, and if USC keeps up the good work they might find themselves Playoff contenders pretty soon.
BYU got beat by Oregon, which we expected, but the margin was greater than anticipated and flipped their future neutral-field game with Notre Dame to the Irish, leaving the Cougars at 10-2 and pretty much out of the race if that holds. Even at 11-1 they didn't have the best odds. Miami's loss to Texas A&M hardly moved their needle at all but of course it doesn't help.
Notre Dame is a lynchpin for many teams. The Irish weren't very impressive in their 24-17 win over Cal but they picked up a projected neutral-field win over BYU as the Cougars slipped. Now projected 10-2, the Irish still have "wins" over Clemson, BYU, and USC in their future! The question is, what are the odds of the Irish winning all three of those games, which even in our best-case scenario are 1-3 point victories. The Irish also need to win close games vs. UNC and Syracuse to go 10-2, which is why they aren't higher than #18 despite all this projected good fortune. Notre Dame started at #5 in our power rating and have only slipped to #16, which is probably too high. As we integrate the Strength power rating into our projections, we will see Notre Dame's true quality revealed; they also have their first road game against North Carolina to get through.
Several non-power five schools had a bad weekend and dropped out. Projected conference champs Marshall, Air Force, and Toledo all bit the dust. The first two were upset by poor competition, while Toledo got blasted so bad by Ohio State it gave them a loss next week to San Diego State. Marshall and Toledo are still projected as Sun Belt and Mac champs, while Air Force lost their Mountain West spot to Boise State.
Other dropouts include Purdue (upset by Syracuse) and Arkansas (now projected just 7-5 after a poor showing vs. Missouri State. Filling their shoes are TCU and a re-entry from Wisconsin, once again pegged as the Big Ten West champ following a 66-7 win over New Mexico State. Who says running up the score doesn't help?
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