Just one week (or really, one and a half weeks) of college football and the Playoff picture gets skewed. Not that anything is close to certain, but our pre-season projection conveniently had four Power Five teams going 13-0, making the Playoff field obvious. With Florida's upset of Utah, the 4th spot is now anyone's guess even if our game-by-game projections go exactly to plan.
Top Teams Roll, Mostly
Ohio State kept a lock on the top spot by beating Notre Dame, even if it wasn't pretty. The Irish aren't downgraded for the loss, which was expected; in fact they move up a spot due to Utah's loss to Florida. Every other top contender did well: Georgia really made an impression by beating Oregon 49-3. Oklahoma didn't struggle vs. UTEP, Alabama rolled vs. Utah State, and Clemson beat Georgia Tech 42-10 Monday night.
This leaves the top three unchanged, as Ohio State's resume still tops a surging Georgia, and 13-0 Oklahoma is close behind. But the 4th spot is up for grabs among four teams. Clemson and Utah (who still looks like the Pac-12's best team) would be 1-loss conference champs which should give them the edge over Notre Dame and Alabama. With Clemson's schedule topping Utah's, the Tigers would seem in line for the fourth spot—but their projected loss is to the Irish. And then the question becomes, does a 12-1 Alabama who just lost to Georgia outrank an 11-1 Notre Dame with a very solid résumé?
It would be a very close call, and our odds numbers reflect that. It depends on how much the SEC continues to dominate the pre-conference season (favoring Alabama of course), and also whether USC emerges as a contender (favoring Notre Dame and Utah). And obviously Clemson could render the issue moot by beating Notre Dame.
2022 Projected Final College Football Playoff Standings - post week 1
LW Rnk Team Rec %Odds %Chg Chg Losses (projected; actuals in bold) 1 1. Ohio State 13-0 72.2 +2.1 2 2. Georgia 13-0 70.9 +2.0 3 3. Oklahoma 13-0 67.6 +2.0 5 4. Alabama 12-1 36.4 +11.5 ↑1 @Georgia 6 5. Notre Dame 11-1 29.0 +12.6 ↑1 @OhioSt 7 6. Clemson 12-1 23.7 +10.6 ↑1 @Notre Dame 4 7. Utah 12-1 20.4 -39.9 ↓3 @Florida 8 8. Michigan 11-1 11.0 -0.8 @OhioSt 9 9. NC State 11-1 10.7 -0.8 @Clemson new 10. Oregon St 11-2 8.6 +8.6 + @Utah, =Utah 17 11. Texas A&M 10-2 6.4 +3.3 ↑6 @MissSt, @Alabama 12 12. Tennessee 10-2 6.1 +0.2 Alabama, @Georgia 13 13. Penn State 10-2 5.8 +0.2 @Michigan, OhioSt 18 14. Miami FL 10-3 5.4 +2.6 ↑4 @TexA&M, @Clemson, =Clemson new 15. Pittsburgh 10-2 5.1 +5.1 + Tennessee, @Miami 14 16. UCLA 10-2 4.8 -0.5 ↓2 Utah, @Oregon 15 17. BYU 11-1 3.6 -0.6 ↓2 =Notre Dame new 18. SMU 13-0 3.2 +3.2 + 19 19. Mississippi 9-3 2.4 -0.1 @TexA&M, Alabama, @Arkansas 20 20. Kentucky 9-3 2.1 -0.1 @Miss, @Tenn, Georgia 24 21. Michigan St 9-3 1.8 +0.8 ↑3 OhioSt, @Michigan, @PennSt new 22. Baylor 9-4 1.2 +1.2 + @BYU, @Oklahoma, @Texas, =Oklahoma 10 23. Oklahoma St 9-3 0.9 -7.2 ↓13 @Baylor, @TCU, @Oklahoma 25 24. Wisconsin 9-4 0.6 +0.1 ↑1 @OhioSt, @MichSt, @Iowa, =OhioSt new 25. Minnesota 9-3 0.2 +0.2 + @MichSt, @PennSt, @Wisconsin
Dropped out: #11 Cincinnati; #16 Boise State; #21 Texas; #22 UTSA; #23 Louisville
Suddenly: Oregon State (and Texas A&M and Pitt)
Michigan (who handily beat Colorado State) and NC State (who barely escaped East Carolina) didn't see their hopes of upsetting Ohio State and Clemson increase and remain at #8 and #9. But Oregon State's fortune's took a surprising turn. Projected 8-4 in the pre-season, the Beavers upset Boise State on Saturday and now look capable of edging Oregon and Fresno State. That puts them at 11-1 and in the Pac-12 title game vs. Utah in the new no-divisional setup.
Texas A&M picked up some speed leaping to #11. The Aggies now project to 10-2 (up from 9-3) which gets them within striking range if they can get past the Mississippi State road game. And Pittsburgh also moves to 10-2; pre-season, they were expected to drop the Louisville game but the Cardinals laid an egg last week against Syracuse, dropping them out of the projection and putting Pitt in at #15.
Tennessee and Penn State did about as well as expected and hold their spots. Miami did too, and moves up riding on the updrafts from the Aggies (whom they lose to) and Pitt (whom they have a future win over). With more viable teams making the grade, BYU and UCLA are pushed down a few spots.
Conference Championship Games Re-aligned
The Pac-12 wasn't the only projected conference championship game that changed hands. In addition to Oregon State replacing Oregon as the Pac-12 runner-up:
- Baylor replaces Oklahoma State as Big 12 runner-up
- UAB replaces Western Kentucky in the C-USA championship (another no-divisions league)
- Miami Ohio replaces Bowling Green as the projected East rep in the MAC title game
- Marshall replaces Appalachian State in the Sun Belt title game
In four of the fives cases the projected winner remains the same, but Marshall is now favored to win the Sun Belt over Louisiana-Lafayette.
And more importantly, in the American conference, SMU is expected to win its home game vs. Cincinnati, which would give the Mustangs home field in the conference championship game. The effect of this is that SMU is now picked to go 13-0, and they bolt into the projection at #18. They don't get the same consideration at 13-0 that Cincinnati would, obviously.
Oklahoma State's weak first game allows Baylor to slip into the Big 12 title game, but the main effect is that the Cowboys look vulnerable also vs. TCU and now project to 9-3; that drops them in a hurry to #23, down 13 spots! Minnesota sneaks in at #25, as they are not slight favorites to beat both Nebraska and Iowa and finish 9-3.
Five new teams enter at the expense of five that drop out: Cincinnati, Boise State, Texas, UTSA, and Louisville. Four of the five lose their first games, all upsets by our pre-season rankings.
Cincinnati is the big one; as mentioned, their loss also tips both SMU games against them and they now project to 10-3. Boise State's loss to Oregon State leaves them at 11-2 and outside the rankings, but both their losses are to top 25 teams. UTSA lost to Houston but can still win the C-USA and go 11-2; they play Texas in a few weeks. The Longhorns didn't lose last week, in fact they did pretty well but Kansas State did very well and now looks like they'll edge Texas in Manhattan, making the Longhorns 8-4. Louisville had the worst opening week of any of our "ranked" teams, falling 31-7 to Syracuse. The Cardinals now project to 7-5.
Comments