The big upset didn't happen; Alabama just got past Texas. But as the 2nd full week of results rolled in, teams exceeded or fell short of expectations and there was lots of re-ordering in our College Football Playoff Committee projections.
A New Top Seed
First order of business, we have a new top seed: Georgia, moving to #1 with Ohio State slipping to #2. The reasons for this are obvious: Notre Dame lost, and Oregon had a big rebound, making the Buckeyes' win over the Irish less important and the Bulldogs 49-3 crushing of the Ducks more significant.
Oklahoma chugged along with a clear rival yet to emerge from the Big Twelve pack. Alabama escaped intact, and while Clemson didn't impress they remained in contention for the last spot. With Notre Dame's loss they rise a spot, and Utah is now likely to lose the road game at Oregon, making them 11-2. So two of Clemson's rivals odds dropped, but the Tigers are still expected to lose to the Irish on the road and thus are a slight underdog to take the last spot in the Playoff at this time. If they indeed lose to Notre Dame, how can they get in ahead of 1-loss BYU, who is expected to beat the Irish, and undefeated Marshall, who already did? With Notre Dame less imposing, it also makes the loss stand out compared to Alabama's projected loss to Georgia.
Oregon's rebound comes from their monster 70-14 win over Eastern Washington, year-to-year a very good FCS team, which erases a lot of the bad taste left by their big loss to Georgia. It tips the Oregon State game in their favor as well as UCLA and the regular season Utah game at home. They still lose the Pac-12 championship game to the Utes but it gives them hope. The question now is which Oregon team shows up the rest of the way?
SportsRatings Projected Final College Football Playoff Committee Standings: post-week 2
LW Rnk Team Rec %Odds %Chg Diff Proj Losses (actuals bold) 2 1. Georgia 13-0 74.7 +3.8 ↑1 1 2. Ohio State 13-0 73.3 +1.1 ↓1 3 3. Oklahoma 13-0 70.0 +2.4 4 4. Alabama 12-1 43.9 +7.6 @Georgia 6 5. Clemson 12-1 36.6 +12.9 ↑1 @Notre Dame 7 6. Utah 11-2 14.6 -5.7 ↑1 @Florida, @Oregon 8 7. Michigan 11-1 11.3 +0.3 ↑1 @OhioSt 9 8. NC State 11-1 9.9 -0.8 ↑1 @Clemson new 9. Oregon 11-2 7.5 +7.5 + @Georgia, =Utah 12 10. Tennessee 10-2 7.1 +1.0 ↑2 Alabama, @Georgia 13 11. Penn State 10-2 6.8 +1.0 ↑2 @Michigan, OhioSt 17 12. BYU 11-1 6.4 +2.8 ↑5 @Oregon 10 13. Oregon St 10-2 6.0 -2.5 ↓3 @Utah, Oregon new 14. Marshall 13-0 5.7 +5.7 + 14 15. Miami FL 10-3 5.3 -0.1 ↓1 @TexA&M, @Clem, =Clem 15 16. Pittsburgh 10-2 4.9 -0.2 ↓1 Tennessee, @Miami new 17. Purdue 10-2 4.6 +4.6 + PennSt, @Minnesota new 18. Air Force 13-0 3.2 +3.2 + new 19. Arkansas 9-3 2.3 +2.3 + Alabama, @MissSt, @BYU 19 20. Mississippi 9-3 2.0 -0.5 ↓1 @TexA&M, Alabama, @Ark 20 21. Kentucky 9-3 1.6 -0.5 ↓1 @Miss, @Tenn, Georgia 5 22. Notre Dame 9-3 1.2 -27.8 ↓17 @OhioSt, Marshall, =BYU new 23. Cincinnati 12-1 0.6 +0.6 + @Arkansas 22 24. Baylor 9-4 0.4 -0.9 ↓2 @BYU, @OK, @Texas, =OK new 25. Toledo 12-1 0.2 +0.2 + @OhioSt
Dropped out: #11 Texas A&M; #16 UCLA; #18 SMU; #21 Michigan St; #23 Oklahoma St; #24 Wisconsin; #25 Minnesota
BYU, Marshall, Air Force jump
Tennessee kept their hopes alive with an overtime win at Pitt, which was expected, as was BYU's home win over Baylor, also in overtime. What wasn't expected was Marshall's win at Notre Dame, and it pushed the Herd to a 13-0 projection. It also made BYU the projected winner against Notre Dame, which could have made them 12-0 except that Oregon is now marked as a loss for the Cougars. Still, they're 3-1 against projected top 25 teams now that Arkansas has moved in. This makes BYU and Marshall very hard to rank for the Committee, as BYU plays a half-Power Five schedule and Marshall doesn't play close to a Power Fiver schedule. But they have the win over the Irish, though with Notre Dame picked to be 9-3 now that won't carry them to the Playoff the way it did Cincinnati last season.
Air Force has played two great games and with their paltry schedule they're looking like 13-0 is a possibility. There aren't any big wins unless you count Boise State or Fresno State. The Falcons replace the Broncos in the projected MWC championship game, just as Oregon replaces Oregon State in our Pac-12 projection. The only other shift is Minnesota replacing Wisconsin in the Big Ten West.
Arkansas enters as they project to 9-3, now expected to beat Texas A&M. Speaking of stumbles, seven teams fall out of the top 25 this week, including the Aggies who fell at home to Appalachian State; UCLA, now only 9-3 now due to Oregon's rise; SMU who loses twice to a resurgence Cincinnati; Wisconsin, who lost to Washington State at home and is now expected to be just 6-6; and Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and Minnesota, all still expected to be have 3 losses but pushed out due to teams barging in.
Those new teams include Purdue, who beats Wisconsin now and goes 10-2; Cincinnati, who as mentioned regains the two "wins" over SMU including the AAC title game after crushing Kennesaw State 63-10 while SMU beat much inferior Lamar just 45-16 (this early in the season, we make judgements with the data we have); and Toledo, who has won two games by a combined 92-10 so far. True, their opponents were LIU and UMass, but with their schedule they're good enough to go 12-1. They face Ohio State and San Diego State next; the first game is a likely blowout loss, while the 2nd is probably very close.
Check back next week to see if the standings are more stable. But at this time of the year, every game adds information that changes the pre-conceived (pre-season) notions about pretty much every team, so the turnover will likely continue for several more weeks.
Comments