According to the All-State College Football Playoff Predictor, it's no use speculating about LSU, Auburn, or Texas A&M going 13-0 since it can't happen. They won't give you that team's odds of making the Playoff at 13-0 because it doesn't meet their standard of reality. It simply Does Not Compute.
Their list of 16 teams to query is based on the Football Power Index (FPI) but for some reason you aren't supposed to be too excited about some teams' chances.
Obviously if any of those three teams goes 13-0 their odds of making the Playoff are 100%. They'd very likely have to beat both Alabama and Georgia to go 13-0, maybe twice in some cases. Auburn plays both the Tide and Bulldogs in the regular season, while LSU and Texas A&M play Alabama and would likely face Georgia in the SEC title game.
Other odds for team scenarios seem a bit "off" too. We're of the opinion that any Power Five team that goes 13-0 is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Playoff, with the caveat that there are five Power Five conferences. If there are five 13-0 teams, one would be left out, but the odds of that are less than 1%, so we'd say almost any 13-0 team is ">99%". What does All-State say?
- Ohio State: >99%
- Alabama: >99%
- Georgia: >99%
- Clemson: >99%
- Notre Dame: >99%
- Michigan: >99%
Here's the one section they get right. Obviously if any of these teams is 13-0 they are guaranteed a spot. I'd just say 100%, since Notre Dame plays both Ohio State and Clemson, if they go 12-0 that eliminates two others. Michigan plays Ohio State, and 12-0 Alabama and Georgia would play too. Anyone from this group going undefeated is in, period. 100%, no need for fudging. - Texas: 99%
- Oklahoma: 97%
- Miami: 99%
- Utah: 90%
- Oklahoma State: 91%
Here's where the sim starts to look silly. If Utah or Oklahoma State goes 13-0, they're in way more than 90% or 91% of the time. Where are you going to find a more deserving team? On the very, very unlikely chance that there's a 13-0 SEC team, a 13-0 Big Ten team (not Ohio State), and 13-0 ACC team (not Clemson), and Notre Dame is 12-0, then there could be six deserving undefeated teams. Even having 5 of these go undefeated is about a 1% chance if not lower. Utah and Oklahoma State should be marked 98% or 99% because that's the reality.
So even Oklahoma is underrated at 97%. Why do they have 3% doubt when Texas has just 1%? Texas plays Alabama and apparently without that win there is 3% doubt. What's really amazing is that Texas has a full 1% of doubt despite the win over Alabama. All of these teams should be at 99% or >99% if they win out.
Utah might be 98% as they have a very weak schedule that could possibly get weaker if the Pac-12 falters in the pre-conference season. And there are some scenarios where a strong 12-1 conference champ (such as Georgia last year, or Ohio State with a 1-point loss to 12-0 Notre Dame) comes in ahead of them. But there's certainly not 10% chance that a 13-0 Utah goes to the Rose Bowl instead of the CFP. - LSU: Impossible to go 13-0
- Auburn: Impossible to go 13-0
- Michigan State: 95%
- Penn State 95%
- Texas A&M: Impossible to go 13-0
...aaand here's where the list goes psycho. It can't comprehend some teams going 13-0 so it punts, instead of saying 100%, which is the accurate odds for an LSU, Auburn, or Texas A&M team that goes 13-0. Or any 13-0 team from the SEC for that matter.
Even Penn State and Michigan State get the shaft, with a silly 5% chance that a 13-0 team that has to beat both Michigan and Ohio State would be left out.
My thoughts are:
any SEC or Big Ten team that goes 13-0 is in, 100% of the time
Notre Dame going 12-0 this season is in >99% of the time
any ACC or Big 12 team going 13-0 is in 99% of the time
any Pac-12 team going 13-0 is in 98% of the time
Any other team* going 13-0 is in the CFP maybe 1% of time except Cincinnati, who at 13-0 might have a 10% chance this year (dependent on a dearth of 0- and 1-loss teams), and 12-0 BYU who may have a 20% chance (depending on Notre Dame's fortunes).
*granted, any 13-0 non-Power Five team that plays and beats a 12-1 Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, etc., would have a fair chance to make the Playoff, but those are cases in which it's actually fair to say, "impossible to 13-0" and punt. Some of these teams include Utah State, ULM, Kent State, Arkansas State, Toledo, Louisiana Tech, and Marshall.
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