Taking the 2022 Pre-season Projections a step further and projecting the conference championship game winners, here's a look at where we think the teams might end up after December 3rd in the College Football Playoff Committee's estimation.
SportsRatings 2022 pre-season College Football Playoff Projections
Rnk Team Rec Odds% Losses 1. Ohio State 13-0 70.2% 2. Georgia 13-0 68.9% 3. Oklahoma 13-0 65.6% 4. Utah 13-0 60.2% 5. Alabama 12-1 24.8% L@Georgia 6. Notre Dame 11-1 16.4% L@Ohio St 7. Clemson 12-1 13.1% L@Notre Dame 8. Michigan 11-1 11.8% L@Ohio St 9. North Carolina St 11-1 11.5% L@Clemson 10. Oklahoma St 11-2 8.0% L@Oklahoma, =Oklahoma 11. Cincinnati 13-0 7.7% 12. Tennessee 10-2 5.9% LAlabama, @Georgia 13. Penn State 10-2 5.6% L@Michigan, Ohio St 14. UCLA 10-2 5.3% L Utah, @Oregon 15. Brigham Young 11-1 4.2% L=Notre Dame 16. Boise St 12-1 3.9% L BYU 17. Texas A&M 9-3 3.2% L@Miss St, @Alabama, @Auburn 18. Miami FL 10-3 2.9% L@Texas A&M, @Clemson, =Clemson 19. Mississippi 9-3 2.5% L@Texas A&M, Alabama, @Arkansas 20. Kentucky 9-3 2.2% L@Ole Miss, @Tenn, Georgia 21. Texas 9-3 1.9% L@Alabama, =Oklahoma, @OK State 22. Texas-San Antonio 12-1 1.6% L@Texas 23. Louisville 9-3 1.3% L@Clemson, NC State, @Kentucky 24. Michigan St 9-3 1.0% L Ohio St, @Michigan, @Penn St 25. Wisconsin 9-4 0.5% L@Ohio St, @Mich St, @Iowa, =Ohio St
Even though Georgia is our pre-season #1 team, we think that if everything goes exactly to plan with wins and losses, Ohio State will end up with the top Playoff seed due to their schedule: they'd end up having the only wins over 11-1 Notre Dame and 11-1 Michigan, as well as #13 Penn State, #24 Michigan State, and twice over #25 Wisconsin. Georgia would have a huge win over Alabama in the SEC championship game, but other than that their slate isn't too rough, meeting #12 Tennessee and #20 Kentucky along the way.
Two other Power 5 schools end up 13-0 in our projection, making things easy for the Committee (from the pre-season standpoint of course!): Oklahoma and Utah. The Sooners would have to beat Oklahoma State twice to do that, and they also meet Texas as usual. Utah would really rest their argument with being an undefeated Power Five champ, which would be enough, but if they slip up anywhere there's a lot of doubt as their biggest win is #14 UCLA.
#5 Alabama has the best chance of making it as a 1-loss team if they keep things close vs. Georgia. They look to be #1 in the polls throughout the season and a close loss might give them an opening, but if there are four 13-0 teams their odds aren't favorable. Their resume beats any other 1-loss team though, with wins over #12 Tennessee, #17 Texas A&M, #19 Ole Miss, and a non-conference win over #21 Texas.
Notre Dame's chances pivot on their game at Ohio State; win that and they're undefeated and in the Playoff. But they also have to beat #15 BYU and #7 Clemson. The Tigers look to bounce back and win the ACC; they'll need to beat #9 NC State, #23 Louisville, and probably #18 Miami twice, as well as beat Notre Dame, to be assured of a Playoff spot.
Michigan and NC State are in the same boat: the 2nd best team in their conference, and in the same division as their biggest foe (Ohio State and Clemson respectively). Winning those games is their ticket to the Playoff. Michigan has tough games vs. Penn State and Michigan State but they host both of those; NC State's toughest hurdle other than the Tigers is #23 Louisville.
Oklahoma State loses to Oklahoma twice in this scenario, and obviously the 2nd game is more important. #21 Texas is their biggest hurdle otherwise in sort of an off-year for the Big Twelve.
Following their great Playoff season in 2021, #11 Cincinnati doesn't look like a contender even if they repeat at 13-0. The reasons are two-fold: 1) at #15 in our pre-season rankings, they don't appear to be the top ten team they clearly were last season, let alone top 5; and 2) they will have no marquee win like last year's Notre Dame.
Tennessee ranks #7 in our pre-season list but they face both Georgia and Alabama, and a win over #20 Kentucky would be their best selling point, so they finish at #12 here. #13 Penn State has a similar résumé with losses to Ohio State and Michigan, and a win over #24 Michigan State. UCLA is the opposite case, placing just #44(!) in our pre-season rankings but has a very easy schedule in a Pac-12 off-year. We have them losing to Utah and also to unranked Oregon, finishing 10-2 at #14.
BYU is another non-Power-Five team that could make some waves; they play a partial Power Five schedule with 4 of 12 games meeting that designation including a game in Las Vegas vs. Notre Dame that might be their only loss. They also play at #16 Boise State which would be their biggest win—unless they top the Irish, in which case they become a Committee Problem. The Broncos wouldn't be a problem even at 13-0 as they'd have no big wins other than BYU. They rank #28 in our pre-season rankings but have an easy schedule conducive to a lower-level Committee placement.
Texas A&M plays at Alabama which looks like a loss—also an opportunity—and we have them falling short at Mississippi State and Auburn, too; showing how tough the SEC is, neither of those teams make the final 25. They look to beat #19 Ole Miss and meet #18 Miami in a non-conference showdown. The Hurricanes are the 4th best team in the ACC but avoid everyone except Clemson, which should get them to the ACC championship game where the Tigers beat them again. Mississippi and Kentucky are two SEC also-rans looking for a big break. The Rebels lose to A&M, Alabama, and at Arkansas, but do beat Kentucky and rival Mississippi State, who actually outranks them in our pre-season rankings, #16 to #19. Kentucky falls to Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Georgia but should beat #23 Louisville.
At #21 we have Texas. It's an annual tradition for Texas to be overrated in the pre-season; will it happen again? We place them 23rd in our pre-season Top 131 but an early game vs. Alabama will probably leave them devastated right away. They also face Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, so their biggest win might be UTSA which finishes at #22 here. The Roadrunners could go 12-1 and end up in the top 25 despite being only our #45 team by strength.
Louisville gives the ACC a 4th team in the top 25, but they probably fall to Clemson, NC State, and Kentucky in a non-conference game. They also rank outside our top 25 in strength, at #30, so we aren't too confident in their ability to pull of upsets.
Michigan State and Wisconsin round out our list. The Spartans lose at Michigan and Penn State, while the Badgers fall at unranked Iowa. Both lose to Ohio State, and although Michigan State probably beats Wisconsin in Lansing, the Badgers win their division and face Ohio State a 2nd time, hence the 9-4 record.
Four teams in the Top 25 Playoff Projection aren't among the top 25 in our pre-season rankings: #14 UCLA is only #44; #16 Boise State is #28; #22 UTSA is just #45; and #23 Louisville is #30.
The four best teams that miss our Top 25 Playoff Projection are: #16 Mississippi State (projected to go 8-4); #17 Iowa (8-4); #22 Pittsburgh (9-3); and #25 Purdue (9-3). Pittsburgh ranks above both Miami and Louisville but plays both on the road.
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