Just when Notre Dame thought they had made their way into the the Playoff after Oklahoma State's loss, Alabama's win over Georgia coupled with Cincinnati's 35-20 win over Houston pushed the Irish back out. The Playoff Four right now seem pretty solid at Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, and Cincinnati.
Georgia is likely to stay in at #3 to avoid a matchup with #1 Alabama. There's a slight chance the Committee will put Michigan #1 and have Georgia #4. That thinking would give Notre Dame a better chance since the Irish won't be ahead of Cincinnati but they could conceivably be put in front of Georgia. That's unlikely; you could also argue for Baylor being ahead of Notre Dame since the Bears are conference champs and the Irish aren't.
Michigan still has to take care of business against Iowa; that remains the only real hope for the Irish unless the Committee exhibits some lateral thinking in terms of Georgia's fate.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee projection: partial update after 12/04 games as noted
LW Rnk Team CFP Rec Proj %Odds %Chg ±Chg This weekend: 5 1. Alabama 3 12-1 12-1 99.0 +61.0 up 4 W Georgia 41-24 2 2. Michigan 2 11-1 12-1 89.1 +6.2 --- vs. #15 Iowa 1 3. Georgia 1 12-1 12-1 75.4 -19.4 dn 2 L Alabama 41-24 4 4. Cincinnati 4 13-0 13-0 66.3 +18.2 --- W Houston 35-20 6 5. Notre Dame 6 11-1 11-1 31.5 +1.2 up 1 11 6. Baylor 9 11-2 11-2 22.4 +20.7 up 5 W Oklahoma St 21-16 3 7. Oklahoma St 5 11-2 11-2 6.1 -71.1 dn 4 L Baylor 21-16 8 8. Ohio State 7 10-2 10-2 1.3 -4.5 --- 9 9. Mississippi 8 10-2 10-2 2.1 -1.3 --- 10 10. Wake Forest 16 10-2 11-2 1.8 -0.1 --- vs. #19 Pittsburgh 12 11. Michigan St 11 10-2 10-2 1.5 +0.2 up 1 13 12. Brigham Young 12 10-2 10-2 1.3 +0.3 up 1 20 13. Utah 17 10-3 10-3 1.0 +1.0 up 7 W Oregon 38-10 14 14. Oklahoma 14 10-2 10-2 0.7 +0.1 --- 15 15. Iowa 13 10-2 10-3 0.5 +0.1 --- vs. #2 Michigan 7 16. Oregon 10 10-3 10-3 <0.1 -12.7 dn 9 L Utah 38-10 18 17. NC State 18 9-3 9-3 <0.1 0.0 up 1 16 18. Pittsburgh 15 10-2 10-3 <0.1 0.0 dn 2 vs. #9 Wake Forest 19 19. Clemson 20 9-3 9-3 <0.! 0.0 --- 21 20. Louisiana-Laf. 24 12-1 12-1 0.0 0.0 up 1 W Appalachian St 24-16 22 21. Arkansas 22 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 up 1 23 22. Kentucky 23 9-3 9-3 0.0 0.0 up 1 25 23. Texas A&M 25 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 up 2 24 24. Houston 21 11-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 --- L @ Cincinnati 35-20 -- 25. Utah St -- 10-3 10-3 0.0 0.0 New W @San Diego St 46-13 Dropped out: #17 San Diego State (19 CFP)
In other action Utah State upset San Diego State in a big way, knocking them from a projected #17 out of the field altogether. The Aztecs were 19th in the CFP last week but the 46-13 beatdown was probably too big for them to hang on at #25; instead it's likely the Aggies will move into the top 25. The other alternative is UTSA who finished 12-1 by beating Western Kentucky yesterday but that win wasn't as emphatic and the Roadrunners have major SOS issues.
Louisiana-Lafayette secured a spot for themselves by beating Appalachian State to finish 12-1 while winning the Sun Belt. We see them moving up to #20, essentially trading spots with Houston who should remain in the rankings as their loss to Cincy will be forgiven.
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