It's the last weekend of college football before the bowl season and the Playoff picture is pretty well sorted out:
- #1 Georgia needs to beat Alabama and they're the #1 seed. Lose and no one's 100% sure what will happen but we think they'll stay in at #3.
- #2 Michigan has to beat Iowa and they're in. Lose and they're out, opening up the door for an 11-2 Alabama or Notre Dame.
- #3 Oklahoma State jumps Cincinnati for the #3 spot with a win. A loss knocks them out of contention, with Alabama, Notre Dame, and even Baylor and Oregon fighting for the last spot.
- #4 Cincinnati has to beat Houston and hope Georgia beats Alabama, and they're in, but probably at #4. If they lose they're out and this is the weirdest scenario of all. It probably gives an 11-2 Oregon its most hope, as putting 11-1 Notre Dame in the playoff ahead of 12-1 Cincinnati would be awkward to say the least.
The magnitude of Alabama's loss determines a lot of what happens to the Tide. A close loss—which we project—puts them at #5. A larger loss puts them below Notre Dame, and a blowout means they fall below Notre Dame and maybe even Ohio State. Mississippi provides a floor even if they lose 59-0. What if they lose in triple overtime? That's their hope for staying in at #4, but the Committee may be loathe to have a rematch in the first round, so unless there are other upsets that let them put Alabama at #3 the Tide may be out of luck without a win over Georgia.
Notre Dame is in a tough spot as an upset by Baylor or Iowa doesn't mean they won't be jumped by those teams. A win by Oregon might put the Ducks in front of the Irish. Their best hope is for an Oregon loss and upsets for everyone other than Georgia. It's not clear whether a Cincinnati loss helps or hurts them, either. It theoretically clears a spot, but maybe not.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee final standings projection w/current CFP rank
Rnk Team CFP Rec Proj %Odds This weekend: 1. Georgia 1 12-0 13-0 94.8 vs. #5 Alabama 2. Michigan 2 11-1 12-1 82.9 vs. #15 Iowa 3. Oklahoma St 5 11-1 12-1 77.2 vs. #11 Baylor 4. Cincinnati 4 12-0 13-0 48.1 #24 Houston 5. Alabama 3 11-1 11-2 38.1 vs. #1 Georgia 6. Notre Dame 6 11-1 11-1 30.2 7. Oregon 10 10-2 11-2 12.7 vs. #20 Utah 8. Ohio State 7 10-2 10-2 5.8 9. Mississippi 8 10-2 10-2 3.4 10. Wake Forest 16 10-2 11-2 2.0 vs. #16 Pittsburgh 11. Baylor 9 10-2 10-3 1.6 vs. #4 Oklahoma St 12. Michigan St 11 10-2 10-2 1.3 13. Brigham Young 12 10-2 10-2 1.0 14. Oklahoma 14 10-2 10-2 0.7 15. Iowa 13 10-2 10-3 0.3 vs. #2 Michigan 16. Pittsburgh 15 10-2 10-3 <0.1 vs. #10 Wake Forest 17. San Diego St 19 11-1 12-1 <0.1 Utah State 18. NC State 18 9-3 9-3 <0.1 19. Clemson 20 9-3 9-3 <0.1 20. Utah 17 9-3 9-4 0.0 vs. #7 Oregon 21. Louisiana-Laf. 24 11-1 12-1 0.0 Appalachian St. 22. Arkansas 22 8-4 8-4 0.0 23. Kentucky 23 9-3 9-3 0.0 24. Houston 21 11-1 11-2 0.0 at #4 Cincinnati 25. Texas A&M 25 8-4 8-4 0.0
Oregon needs to beat Utah of course and needs some help. Wins by Georgia, and Iowa would help a lot, as would a Cincy loss. Baylor beating Oklahoma State might keep the Bears ahead of them in the Committee rankings, but an Oklahoma State win would definitely have the Cowboys ahead of them. They might need to beat Utah about as badly as the Utes beat them a few weeks ago.
Ohio State and Mississippi are pretty much out of luck; their odds listed here will only decrease next week. Ohio State isn't going to pass a 2-loss Michigan and Iowa might move past them with a win. Mississippi is stuck behind a 2-loss Alabama no matter what. Chaos in the form of a Baylor upset just means Baylor moves past both teams. Only a Cincinnati loss helps either team, and it's not enough to put them close enough.
Wake Forest is in a 50/50 game with Pittsburgh for the ACC title. They sit at 16th and 15th in the Committee rankings and the winner probably finishes around #10 since winning the ACC isn't a big deal but it's still a major conference championship. No matter the chaos it's a hard sell to see either team getting much closer, as both are pretty far down the 2-loss-team pecking order.
Baylor has some upside potential with a win over Oklahoma State, however. Coupled with a big Georgia win over Alabama and a Houston upset of Cincinnati, it could be enough to get the Bears in the top four. A loss by Oregon would help.
Iowa is 13th in the Committee rankings and although there might be a path to the top four but it isn't obvious, and would require the Hawks to find an offense and blow out the Wolverines. Getting past Notre Dame and Alabama will be tough. Georgia has to beat Alabama in a big way, and an Oregon loss would be good.
One of the more interesting questions is: what happens to Cincinnati and Houston if the Cougars win? It's unlikely that Houston would pass Cincinnati even with both at 12-1 and Houston winning the head to head, unless it were a very solid win. What would this result mean for the New Year's Six bowl? Presumably Houston would be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion, but if Cincy were still ahead of them, and in the top 12, would they also make it?
Other projected ranked Group of Five teams include San Diego State and Louisiana, who might both finish 12-1, but without the big win that a 12-1 Houston would have.
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