Oregon got destroyed again by Utah, 38-10, eliminating perhaps the shortest of the longshots to make the Playoff. An Oregon win likely put them at #7 in the final standings, one spot ahead of Ohio State and made them our top-ranked 2-loss Power Five conference winner. They had little chance of slipping in—12.7% given the chance for chaos—but that was more than anyone else south of #6 Notre Dame.
Now with the Ducks relegated to the nether regions of the top 25 and 3-loss Utah unlikely to advance past #12 BYU—who beat the Utes earlier in the season—it leaves Ohio State our most likely longshot given the outcomes we project. And the Buckeyes have very little chance as a 10-2 team without a conference championship. They're up to 8.1%, mainly from finishing fairly close to the prize at #7, but that will dwindle in our final output tomorrow after all the games have been played.
It mainly took pressure off Notre Dame and Alabama's fears of being passed by an 11-2 Oregon, something that wasn't too likely to start with. But now if Alabama loses a close game to Georgia they don't have to worry about Oregon, at least.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee projection: partial update after Friday games (12/03/2021)
LW Rnk Team CFP Rec Proj %Odds %Chg ±Chg This weekend: 1 1. Georgia 1 12-0 13-0 97.0 +2.2 --- vs. #5 Alabama 2 2. Michigan 2 11-1 12-1 85.1 +2.2 --- vs. #15 Iowa 3 3. Oklahoma St 5 11-1 12-1 78.8 +1.6 --- vs. #10 Baylor 4 4. Cincinnati 4 12-0 13-0 49.2 +1.1 --- (H) #24 Houston 5 5. Alabama 3 11-1 11-2 38.7 +0.6 --- vs. #1 Georgia 6 6. Notre Dame 6 11-1 11-1 30.3 +0.1 --- 8 7. Ohio State 7 10-2 10-2 8.1 +2.3 up 1 9 8. Mississippi 8 10-2 10-2 4.1 +0.7 up 1 10 9. Wake Forest 16 10-2 11-2 2.2 +0.2 up 1 vs. #19 Pittsburgh 11 10. Baylor 9 10-2 10-3 1.9 +0.3 up 1 vs. #4 Oklahoma St 12 11. Michigan St 11 10-2 10-2 1.6 +0.3 up 1 13 12. Brigham Young 12 10-2 10-2 1.3 +0.3 up 1 20 13. Utah 17 10-3 10-3 0.8 +0.8 up 7 W Oregon 38-10 14 14. Oklahoma 14 10-2 10-2 0.5 -0.2 --- 15 15. Iowa 13 10-2 10-3 0.3 0.0 --- vs. #2 Michigan 17 16. San Diego St 19 11-1 12-1 <0.1 0.0 up 1 (H) Utah State 7 17. Oregon 10 10-3 10-3 <0.1 -12.7 dn 10 L Utah 38-10 18 18. NC State 18 9-3 9-3 <0.1 0.0 --- 16 19. Pittsburgh 15 10-2 10-3 <0.1 0.0 dn 3 vs. #9 Wake Forest 19 20. Clemson 20 9-3 9-3 0.0 0.0 dn 1 21 21. Louisiana-Laf. 24 11-1 12-1 0.0 0.0 --- (H) Appalachian St 22 22. Arkansas 22 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 --- 23 23. Kentucky 23 9-3 9-3 0.0 0.0 --- 24 24. Houston 21 11-1 11-2 0.0 0.0 --- at #4 Cincinnati 25 25. Texas A&M 25 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 ---
Overall it's a pretty small piece of clarity. In our projection it also had the odd effect of knocking Pittsburgh down a few more spots, but Pitt can compensate for that by beating Wake Forest and they'll end up in the top 10 instead.
The other game tonight saw UTSA beat Western Kentucky 49-41 to finish 12-1 and with the C-USA. That gives them a small chance to break into the top 25 but their loss to North Texas was too resounding and recent for them to push Texas A&M out, and their win too narrow. Their best bet is for Louisiana-Lafayette to lose to Appalachian State, which would knock the Ragin' Cajuns out and open up a slot for the Roadrunners. Houston's #24 finish assumes a loss to Cincinnati already.
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