After a wild day of upsets and expected results seemingly alternating, the Playoff picture is (mostly) clear: Michigan will face Georgia, and Alabama will face Cincinnati.
The question is, in which order do the seeds appear? Alabama looks like the top seed, but it's not impossible for Michigan, after beating Iowa 42-3, could take the top spot. And based on the order on top, Georgia and Cincinnati will swap positions and the Bulldogs finish in the #4 spot. Either order is defensible and would make sense.
According to our projection there is some chance of Notre Dame or Baylor slipping in, but the actual mechanism is hard to determine. If Cincinnati is #4, Notre Dame isn't getting in. Only if Georgia is #4 can the Irish possibly slip past the Bulldogs, and that's a long shot itself. Baylor is a Power Five conference champ, something that Georgia, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame are not, but they also have 2 losses. Their best possible finish seems like slipping up to #5 ahead of Notre Dame, a move that is also very defensible as they have wins over Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and BYU.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee projection: Final projection before Committee meeting (CFP = previous CFP ranking)
LW Rnk Team CFP Rec %Odds %Chg ±Chg This weekend: 5 1. Alabama 3 12-1 100.0 +62.0 up 4 W Georgia 41-24 2 2. Michigan 2 12-1 97.7 +14.8 --- W Iowa 42-3 1 3. Georgia 1 12-1 76.4 -18.5 dn 2 L Alabama 41-24 4 4. Cincinnati 4 13-0 66.9 +18.8 --- W Houston 35-20 6 5. Notre Dame 6 11-1 31.0 +0.8 up 1 11 6. Baylor 9 11-2 21.5 +19.9 up 5 W Oklahoma St 21-16 3 7. Oklahoma St 5 11-2 4.7 -72.5 dn 4 L Baylor 21-16 8 8. Ohio State 7 10-2 0.8 -5.0 --- 9 9. Mississippi 8 10-2 0.6 -2.8 --- 16 10. Pittsburgh 15 11-2 0.3 +0.3 up 6 W Wake Forest 45-21 12 11. Michigan St 11 10-2 <0.1 -1.3 up 1 13 12. Brigham Young 12 10-2 <0.1 -1.0 up 1 20 13. Utah 17 10-3 <0.1 0.0 up 7 W Oregon 38-10 14 14. Oklahoma 14 10-2 <0.1 -0.7 --- 7 15. Oregon 10 10-3 <0.1 -12.7 dn 8 L Utah 38-10 18 16. NC State 18 9-3 0.0 0.0 up 2 19 17. Clemson 20 9-3 0.0 0.0 up 2 15 18. Iowa 13 10-3 0.0 -0.3 dn 3 L Michigan 42-3 10 19. Wake Forest 16 10-3 0.0 -2.0 dn 9 L Pittsburgh 45-21 21 20. Louisiana-Laf. 24 12-1 0.0 0.0 up 1 W Appalachian St 24-16 22 21. Arkansas 22 8-4 0.0 0.0 up 1 23 22. Kentucky 23 9-3 0.0 0.0 up 1 25 23. Texas A&M 25 8-4 0.0 0.0 up 2 24 24. Houston 21 11-2 0.0 0.0 --- L @ Cincinnati 35-20 -- 25. Utah St -- 10-3 0.0 0.0 New W @San Diego St 46-13 Dropped out: #17 San Diego State (19 CFP)
The odds listed by our projection are heavily influenced by rank position, so it's safe to say that Michigan is a 100% lock. The odds for Georgia and Cincinnati are probably low in certainty, but we don't know for sure what the Committee will do with Georgia, so Notre Dame and Baylor have some percentage chance of slipping in. Everything from Oklahoma State on down should be considered 0%; there's always a trail-off of percentages just to cover all the bases. Formulas round off and show a small percentage chance when there is none. Sorry Ole Miss, there's no hope.
The top 12 looks pretty clear-cut. Utah will come close, but at #13 they should be behind BYU who beat them. The only other mystery is who will replace San Diego State in the top 25, or whether the Aztecs will hang on.
In short, it really looks like the pairings are set. They aren't going to run a replay of Alabama-Georgia in the first round, so the #3 and #4 will be determined by who they choose as the #1 seed. With of course, a small chance for a surprise from Notre Dame or Baylor that would be pretty controversial.
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