Two week remain before the Committee makes their choices, and the Big Ten and Big 12 are really wide open. Three Big Ten teams control their destiny to the conference crown, while three Big 12 teams still have a chance to play for the Big 12 title. The pairings in most of the other conferences are pretty well set.
#3 Ohio State is once again in the biggest game of the week, playing at #7 Michigan in a Playoff eliminator. The winner will likely face #17 Wisconsin who is now potentially the biggest spoiler in the country. If either the Buckeyes or Wolverines finishes 12-1 they are guaranteed a Playoff spot, with Ohio State a possible though unlikely #1.
Unlike their Big Ten counterpart, a 12-1 Big 12 finisher isn't a lock. #4 Oklahoma State is pretty close to a lock at 12-1, but #13 Oklahoma might be in a battle with Georgia and Cincinnati for the last two spots if Alabama wins out. This week's matchup in Stillwater will determine the Big 12 title game contestants: If Oklahoma State wins they will face #11 Baylor. If Oklahoma wins they will have to face Oklahoma State again to "prove" it.
538's simulator has both 12-1 Oklahoma teams and Cincinnati well ahead of a 12-1 Georgia; ESPN/Allstate's predictor has 12-1 Georgia a lock with Cincy and the Big 12 winner left out. We see a 12-1 Georgia in at #3 and 12-1 Oklahoma State at #4, but Cincy may be at #4 ahead of a 12-1 Oklahoma. (Note that Georgia is projected at 12-1 below and #1, but that's due to their overall odds. Next week the projection will 'commit' to a scenario rather than using overall odds)
#1 Georgia has another presumably easy task ahead at Georgia Tech, while #2 Alabama has a tougher job at Auburn but is still a heavy favorite. #5 Cincinnati should have an easy time at East Carolina as should #6 Notre Dame at Stanford. As we've mentioned, Notre Dame is lacking a straightforward scenario where they make it in. They seem to be in fair shape if they go 11-1 but the likely potential scenarios block them one way or another. Without a Cincy loss and either Wisconsin winning the Big Ten or Baylor the Big 12, they're probably out of luck.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee final standings projection
Rnk Team CFP Rec Proj %Odds This weekend: 1. Georgia 1 11-0 12-1 78.9 @ Georgia Tech 2. Alabama 3 10-1 12-1 76.2 @ Auburn 3. Ohio State 2 10-1 12-1 71.4 @ #7 Michigan 4. Oklahoma St 7 10-1 12-1 64.5 #13 Oklahoma 5. Cincinnati 4 11-0 13-0 37.6 @ East Carolina 6. Notre Dame 6 10-1 11-1 30.7 @ Stanford 7. Michigan 5 10-1 10-2 12.9 #3 Ohio State 8. Oregon 11 9-2 11-2 7.8 Oregon State 9. Mississippi 9 9-2 10-2 6.2 @ Mississippi St 10. Wake Forest 18 9-2 11-2 4.6 @ Boston College 11. Baylor 8 9-2 10-3 3.0 Texas Tech 12. Brigham Young 13 9-2 10-2 1.9 @ USC 13. Oklahoma 10 10-1 10-2 1.4 @ #4 Oklahoma St 14. Iowa 16 9-2 10-2 1.0 @ Nebraska 15. Texas A&M 15 8-3 9-3 0.5 @ LSU 16. Pittsburgh 17 9-2 10-3 0.4 @ Syracuse 17. Wisconsin 14 8-3 9-4 0.3 @ Minnesota 18. UTSA 22 11-0 13-0 0.2 @ North Texas 19. Clemson 23 8-3 9-3 0.1 @ South Carolina 20. Utah 19 8-3 9-4 <0.1 Colorado 21. Michigan St 12 9-2 9-3 <0.1 #24 Penn State 22. Louisiana-Laf. -- 10-1 12-1 <0.1 Louisiana-Monroe 23. Houston 24 10-1 11-2 0.0 @ UConn 24. Penn State -- 7-4 8-4 0.0 @ #21 Michigan St 25. NC State 20 8-3 8-4 0.0 North Carolina
At #8 and lower we have the real long shots, as no 2-loss team has ever made it. But Oregon still has a modicum of hope assuming every team above them collapses. They just need to beat rival Oregon State and then beat #20 Utah in the rematch. The fact that they're in a rivalry game, and at home, probably saves them from suffering a letdown from last week's debacle. Not so for #21 Michigan State, who suffered an even worse beatdown (they were down 49-0 at one point) and host #24 Penn State who isn't really a rival. Hence they're a 1 point underdog while Oregon is favored. We think Michigan State's hangover is worse than a 1-point loss, thus the projected fall to #21, but we'll see.
Other ranked teams that are underdogs by the oddsmakers include #9 Mississippi (2 point dogs at rival Mississippi State) and #14 Iowa (1 point dogs at Nebraska). We have both these teams winning but finishing 10-2 doesn't do much for them Playoff-wise. Iowa does still have a shot at winning the West division if Wisconsin loses at Minnesota, but then they have to beat the OSU-Michigan winner.
Speaking of Conference winners, #10 Wake Forest and #16 Pittsburgh are on a collision course and it's a tough call who wins that one. Both have great offenses and questionable defense. Both should slip past their opponents this week, and their performances might tip our projection. Right now we favor Wake to beat Pitt but that could change, and the teams would likely swap places in the projection if Pitt goes 11-2 instead.
A few weeks ago there were six teams in our rankings that weren't in the Committee rankings; now that's down to just two. Four of their teams (Auburn, Mississippi State, Minnesota, and Fresno State) dropped out, and they replaced them with three of ours (UTSA, Utah, and Clemson); we added one of theirs (NC State), and they added another that we don't have (Arkansas), leaving just (21) San Diego State and (25) Arkansas among their teams that we don't rank. The Aztecs can impress us by upsetting Boise State this week, while Arkansas probably moves in with a win over Missouri to finish at 8-4. We already have the Razorbacks at 8-4, but it depends on what else happens.
Right now Arkansas could be left out if Penn State indeed beats Michigan State. Our other team unranked by the Committee is Louisiana; they just need to beat ULM to finish 11-1, but we don't expect they'll be ranked by the Committee until they lock up the Sun Belt at 12-1.
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