It's week 12 (some call this week 13, but those in the know call the first mini-weekend of games "week 0") and we're getting down to the nitty-gritty in the College Football Playoff. From here on out there are going to be high-leverage games all over the place. This week's big games feature three 1-loss teams that are all underdogs both by the oddsmakers and our projections; if they win these games it would radically change our Playoff landscape.
The Marquee Event: Ohio State vs. Michigan State
This top-line game, featuring the Committee's 4th and 7th-ranked teams, will get all the attention, as it should. Ohio State is our #4 and Michigan State is just #15—partly because they're supposed to lose this game and ours is a final rankings projection. A win by the Spartans would put them firmly in the Big Ten driver's seat, and bump them into our top ten—still expected to lose to Penn State, however. Ohio State would have a 2nd loss which would crush their Playoff hopes. A Buckeye win keeps them on track and would mean that Michigan control their own destiny for the Big Ten title and therefore, the Playoff.
The rest of our top four has a mixed bag of challenges. #1 Alabama, after a week of rest vs. New Mexico State, faces Arkansas who is 21st on the Committee's list. At a projected 8-4 they're right on the verge of making our list, win or lose (of course, "win" gets them there much quicker). #4 Oklahoma State travels to Texas Tech, which is no gimme. #2 Georgia is the only one that gets a bye week, taking on Charleston Southern. But regardless of how daunting the other teams' challenges seem, the oddsmakers don't have much confidence in their challengers: all three are double-digit favorites, with Alabama a 20 1/2 point favorite, while Ohio State is a remarkable 19 point favorite over Michigan State.
SportsRatings Playoff final rankings projection w/current CFP Committee ranking and next game
Rnk Team CFP Rec Proj %Odds This weekend: 1. Alabama 2 9-1 12-1 72.8 Arkansas(21) 2. Georgia 1 10-0 12-1 70.7 Charleston So. 3. Ohio State 4 9-1 12-1 66.5 #15 Michigan St 4. Oklahoma St 9 9-1 12-1 60.2 @ Texas Tech 5. Cincinnati 5 10-0 13-0 35.4 SMU 6. Notre Dame 8 9-1 11-1 29.1 Georgia Tech 7. Oregon 3 9-1 11-2 12.5 @ #21 Utah 8. Wake Forest 10 9-1 11-2 10.4 @ #19 Clemson 9. Michigan 6 9-1 10-2 9.2 @ Maryland 10. Baylor 11 8-2 10-3 8.1 @ Kansas State 11. Mississippi 12 8-2 10-2 7.0 Vanderbilt 12. BYU 14 8-2 10-2 5.8 @ GA Southern 13. Oklahoma 13 9-1 10-2 4.7 Iowa State 14. Iowa 17 8-2 10-2 3.6 Illinois 15. Michigan St 7 9-1 9-3 0.9 @ #3 Ohio State 16. UTSA 22 10-0 13-0 0.8 UAB 17. Wisconsin 15 7-3 9-4 0.7 Nebraska 18. Pittsburgh 18 8-2 9-3 0.6 Virginia 19. Clemson -- 7-3 9-3 0.4 #8 Wake Forest 20. Texas A&M 16 7-3 9-3 0.3 Prairie View A&M 21. Utah 23 7-3 9-4 0.2 #7 Oregon 22. Arizona St -- 7-3 9-3 0.1 @ Oregon State 23. Louisiana-Laf. -- 9-1 12-1 >0.1 @ Liberty 24. Houston 24 9-1 11-2 >0.1 Memphis 25. Penn State -- 6-4 8-4 0.0 Rutgers
Just outside the top 4—with the Committee as well—is Cincinnati who hosts SMU. A while back this was supposed to be their "big game" and another notch in their belt if they win. It's not a bad win still, but at 8-2 SMU isn't the skin they would be at 10-0 as everyone seemed to expect from them. Cincy is a low-double-digit favorite as is #6 Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech.
Oregon and Wake Forest: Far Away, So Close
9-1 Oregon is 3rd in the Committee rankings, while 9-1 Wake Forest is 10th. We have them much closer, at #7 and #8 because we're projecting both to lose this weekend, recover and win the title of their weak conference (Pac-12 and ACC respectively). Interestingly the oddsmakers also favor #21 Utah to beat Oregon and #19 Clemson (remember Clemson?) to top the Demon Deacons. So our scenario isn't so outrageous after all.
If Oregon prevails, we'll have them at 12-1 and much closer to the Committee's #3 seeding. If Wake Forest wins they'll probably project to 12-1 also, which puts them somewhere around #5 to #7. They might be ahead of Cincinnati, but they also might remain behind Notre Dame. It's a tough call, one of the toughest. And while Utah is pretty firmly entrenched as the Pac-12 South winner, currently we project Wake's ACC title game foe as Virginia, when that could change if Pittsburgh beats them as the oddsmakers widely expect. A Pitt-Wake ACC final is as close to a tossup as you can get.
We still have Utah losing in the Pac-12 title game even with the projected regular-season home win over Oregon. And Clemson (remember Clemson?) is pretty well shut out of the ACC title game and a win over Wake Forest just means they finish 9-3 and finally make the Committee's top 25.
Best of the Rest: Baylor, Oklahoma, UTSA, ASU, and Louisiana face tests
#9 Michigan is a double-digit favorite over Maryland, as is #12 BYU over Georgia Southern, #14 Iowa over Illinois, and #17 Wisconsin over Nebraska. But there are some games that are in doubt. Both #10 Baylor and #13 Oklahoma have tough games, with the Bears even money at Kansas State and the Sooners a narrow favorite over Iowa State at home. #16 Texas-San Antonio is a five-point favorite at home vs. UAB. And Arizona State is favored by less than a field goal at Oregon State.
One team that's going to have a very easy time moving up in our projections is Texas A&M. We projected their loss to Mississippi last week, and they even moved up a spot for their trouble. This week they play Prairie View A&M and they'll move up quite a bit more—due to the Committee's rankings where the Aggies are #16. They're #16 at 7-3 and we project them to be at #20 at 9-3. That doesn't really jibe, so unless Prairie View pulls off an upset for the ages the Aggies will make a big jump commensurate with their Committee ranking.
Louisiana-Lafayette is our projected #23 team but they've yet to crack the Committee's rankings. Maybe a game with 7-3 Liberty would help their cause? It could, but it might also knock them out of our rankings instead. The Ragin' Cajuns are a solid 4 point road dog against the Flames.
Now there are only four teams in our rankings that aren't in the Committee's, as Houston joined at #24, the same place we have them. We project the Cougars to finish 11-2, which is obviously what you get if you win two more games then lose to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference title game. The four not-on-our-list teams are (with Committee ranking):
- (19) San Diego State (9-1) travels to UNLV this week but faces Boise State in their last game
- (20) NC State (7-3) who faces Syracuse and then North Carolina, where we expect their fourth loss
- (21) Arkansas (7-3) - we've covered them with regard to Alabama above
- (25) Mississippi State (6-4) has a gimme vs. Tennessee State then faces rival Mississippi after that
This is why we think the future doesn't bode well for these teams. They face a very tough opponent either this week or next. Still, we note that Arkansas's loss is expected and they might slide in anyway, and San Diego State might still be ranked at 10-2 even with a loss to Boise.
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