2021 Final Playoff Standings projection post-week 13: Michigan In, Ohio State out

Finally some surprises! And near-surprises, too. After last week we were wondering if everything were just going to play out as expected. But Michigan pulled off the big upset and shook up the projections, while Auburn almost caused another earthquake in the top four. As it turns out, though, not only does Michigan replace Ohio State but Georgia is finally solidly favored to beat Alabama which puts the Tide just outside a likely top four finish. So we have two new teams expected in the Playoff: Michigan and Cincinnati.

Georgia is still #1 but this time they're expected to be 13-0 and end up in the Playoff with almost any result next Saturday vs. Alabama. We'll delve into that some more when previewing next week's games but another other than a blowout loss probably keeps them in at #3. It's also the only way Cincinnati misses out now, as even a very narrow loss by Alabama drops the Tide to #5. Probably.

Oklahoma State remains #3 after escaping vs. Oklahoma. They're in if they beat Baylor on Saturday. All of this gives Cincinnati several ways to make it in and only a few unlikely scenarios where they miss out. They're still shy of 50% odds but if they do beat Houston in the American conference title game they will have more paths to the Playoff than paths that shut them out.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee final standings projection post week 13 (11/28/2021)

LW  Rnk Team            CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  %Chg ±Chg   Results:             
 1   1. Georgia          1   12-0  13-0   94.8 +16.0  ---   W @GTech 45-0
 7   2. Michigan         5   11-1  12-1   82.9 +69.9  up 5  W Ohio St 42-27
 4   3. Oklahoma St      7   11-1  12-1   77.2 +12.7  up 1  W Oklahoma 37-33
 5   4. Cincinnati       4   12-0  13-0   48.1 +10.4  up 1  W @E Carolina 35-13
 2   5. Alabama          3   11-1  11-2   38.1 -38.1  dn 3  W @Auburn 24-22 4OT
 6   6. Notre Dame       6   11-1  11-1   30.2  -0.5  ---   W @Stanford 45-14
 8   7. Oregon          11   10-2  11-2   12.7  +4.8  up 1  W Oregon St 38-29
 3   8. Ohio State       2   10-2  10-2    5.8 -65.6  dn 5  L @Michigan 42-27
 9   9. Mississippi      9   10-2  10-2    3.4  -2.9  ---   W @Miss State 31-21
10  10. Wake Forest     18   10-2  11-2    2.0  -2.7  ---   W @Boston Coll 41-10
11  11. Baylor           8   10-2  10-3    1.6  -1.4  ---   W Texas Tech 27-24
21  12. Michigan St     12   10-2  10-2    1.3  +1.3  up 9  W Penn State 30-27
12  13. Brigham Young   13   10-2  10-2    1.0  -0.9  dn 1  W @USC 35-31
13  14. Oklahoma        10   10-2  10-2    0.7  -0.8  dn 1  L @OK State 37-33
14  15. Iowa            16   10-2  10-3    0.3  -0.7  dn 1  W @Nebraska 28-21
16  16. Pittsburgh      17   10-2  10-3   <0.1  -0.4  ---   W @Syracuse 31-14
--  17. San Diego St    21   11-1  12-1   <0.1   0.0  new   W Boise State 27-16
25  18. NC State        20    9-3   9-3   <0.1   0.0  up 7  W UNC 34-30
19  19. Clemson         23    9-3   9-3   <0.1  -0.1  ---   W @S Carolina 30-0
20  20. Utah            19    9-3   9-4    0.0   0.0  ---   W Colorado 28-13
--  21. Kentucky        --    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  new   W @Louisville 52-21
22  22. Louisiana-Laf.  --   11-1  12-1    0.0   0.0  ---   W ULM 21-16
23  23. Houston         24   11-1  11-2    0.0   0.0  ---   W @UConn 45-17
17  24. Wisconsin       14    8-4   8-4    0.0  -0.3  dn 7  L @Minnesota 23-13
15  25. Texas A&M       15    8-4   8-4    0.0  -0.5  dn 10 L @LSU 27-24

Dropped out: #18 UTSA, #24 Penn State

The surprises didn't stop there—at least for us.

• Michigan State beat Penn State, which vaulted the Spartans back up to #12 and kicked the Nittany Lions out of the top 25 at 7-5.
• San Diego State beat Boise State, which puts the Aztecs in the Mountain West title game in a winnable game vs. Utah State. Their projection jumps from a pedestrian 10-2 to 12-1, enough for an approximate #17 finish.
• NC State beat North Carolina. Instead of 8-4 the Wolfpack finish 9-3 and jump to #18 instead of the expected drop to #25.
• Wisconsin was upset by Minnesota and kicked out of the Big Ten title game. They still finish with 4 losses but only 8 wins instead, and we'll see how far the Committee drops them (and whether they bring Minnesota in again). We assume the Badgers remain in.
• Texas A&M got beat by LSU and their status in the top 25 is unsure, but they were high enough to remain just inside. Again, Tuesday will answer this question.
• UTSA got beat by North Texas, and badly, 45-23. They're unlikely to get back in the top 25 even if they win the Sun Belt conference championship game and finish 12-1
• Kentucky beat Louisville to finish 9-3 which put them back in our top 25. Again, we'll soon know if the Committee sees it the same.

A lot could change with the conference title games and many of them are simply too close to call. Utah will probably be favored to beat Oregon but we have the Ducks winning; Pitt might be favored against Wake Forest but we have that a 50/50 game and give it to Wake Forest (we haven't been wrong about the Deacons yet this year, so there's that).

Iowa is certainly a spoiler vs. Michigan, and so is Baylor against Oklahoma State. Not to mention Houston against Cincinnati. The only conference title game where style points will matter is Georgia vs. Alabama, however. In every other case, it really only matters who wins, as even 59-0 wins couldn't put Iowa, Baylor, or Houston in the Playoff without massive chaos elsewhere. But margin of victory might decide if Georgia remains in the Playoff with a loss, and Alabama might hold on to the last spot if they play Georgia very close.