There's not a lot of change in our projections this week, which isn't a surprise since all the favored teams—the ones we favored at least—won as expected. Since ours is a Projection, those results were mostly already taken into account, whereas the Committee will have a lot of revising to do on Tuesday we don't.
Three teams had a chance to establish themselves as favorites to become 12-1 Power conference champions: Oregon, Wake Forest, and Michigan State. All three failed, often spectacularly. Of the three only the Spartans moved a lot from last week. Oregon, 3rd in the Committee rankings, was #7 last week on our projection and drops one spot. Wake Forest was #8 and falls to #10.
In Oregon's case it was the magnitude of the loss: 38-7 doesn't play well with the Committee. It also puts a lot of doubt as to whether the Ducks can win the rematch, but they're still (barely) pencilled in as Pac-12 champs. That could change.
Wake Forest was only 10th per the Committee, so after dropping for their big loss to Clemson they'll be lucky to claw their way back in the top ten. The loss was expected but another result—Pitt's win over Virginia—changed their ACC Coastal foe and made it a much tougher proposition to finish 11-2. It's close to 50/50 vs. Pittsburgh for the ACC title.
Meanwhile, while we're saying there are no changes, somehow there is a new #1 team. Georgia moves into the top spot for the first time this year in a paradoxical move: they're still pegged to (barely) lose the SEC title game to Alabama, but their odds to make the Playoff are greater than Alabama's given the potential scenarios. That is, a 12-1 Georgia is very likely still in, an 11-2 Alabama is very likely out. So while the Bulldogs only finish at the top if they go 13-0, their odds have moved them there despite a forecast 12-1 finish, and they gain more in odds percentage than any team this week. Alabama's difficulties vs. Arkansas didn't make the prospect of beating Georgia any more likely, that's for sure.
Ohio State and Oklahoma State hold as the other entrants. The Buckeyes demolished Michigan State almost exactly parallel, quarter for quarter, the way Georgia did to Charleston Southern. And the Cowboys blanked Texas Tech, which doesn't happen often. The Red Raiders were averaging over 33 points per game and hadn't been shut out since 1997.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee Rankings final projection: post-week 12 (11/22/2021 w/last week's CFP ranking, current and projected record)
LW Rnk Team CFP Rec Proj %Odds %Chg ±Chg Results: 2 1. Georgia 1 11-0 12-1 78.9 +8.2 up 1 W Charleston 56-7 1 2. Alabama 2 10-1 12-1 76.2 +3.4 dn 1 W Arkansas 42-35 3 3. Ohio State 4 10-1 12-1 71.4 +5.0 --- W Michigan St 56-7 4 4. Oklahoma St 9 10-1 12-1 64.5 +4.4 --- W @Texas Tech 23-0 5 5. Cincinnati 5 11-0 13-0 37.6 +2.2 --- W SMU 48-14 6 6. Notre Dame 8 10-1 11-1 30.7 +1.6 --- W Georgia Tech 55-0 9 7. Michigan 6 10-1 10-2 12.9 +3.7 up 2 W @Maryland 59-18 7 8. Oregon 3 9-2 11-2 7.8 -4.7 dn 1 L @Utah 38-7 11 9. Mississippi 12 9-2 10-2 6.2 -0.7 up 2 W Vanderbilt 31-17 8 10. Wake Forest 10 9-2 11-2 4.6 -5.7 dn 2 L @Clemson 48-27 10 11. Baylor 11 9-2 10-3 3.0 -5.1 dn 1 W @Kansas St 20-10 12 12. Brigham Young 14 9-2 10-2 1.9 -4.0 --- W @GA Southern 34-17 13 13. Oklahoma 13 10-1 10-2 1.4 -3.3 --- W Iowa State 28-21 14 14. Iowa 17 9-2 10-2 1.0 -2.6 --- W Illinois 33-23 20 15. Texas A&M 16 8-3 9-3 0.5 +0.2 up 5 W Prairie View 52-3 18 16. Pittsburgh 18 9-2 10-3 0.4 -0.2 up 2 W Virginia 48-38 17 17. Wisconsin 15 8-3 9-4 0.3 -0.4 --- W Nebraska 35-28 16 18. UTSA 22 11-0 13-0 0.2 -0.6 dn 2 W UAB 34-31 19 19. Clemson -- 8-3 9-3 0.1 -0.3 --- W Wake Forest 48-27 21 20. Utah 23 8-3 9-4 <0.1 -0.2 up 1 W Oregon 38-7 15 21. Michigan St 7 9-2 9-3 <0.1 -0.9 dn 6 L @Ohio State 56-7 23 22. Louisiana-Laf. -- 10-1 12-1 <0.1 0.0 up 1 W @Liberty 48-14 24 23. Houston 24 10-1 11-2 0.0 0.0 up 1 W Memphis 31-13 25 24. Penn State -- 7-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 up 1 W Rutgers 23-0 -- 25. NC State 20 8-3 8-4 0.0 0.0 new W Syracuse 41-17 Dropped out: #22 Arizona State
Cincinnati and Notre Dame are #5 and #6 but despite close percentage numbers, their realities are pretty far apart. It's true that the Irish are putting up good performances—55-0 vs. Georgia Tech is something Georgia is unlikely to accomplish next week—but they are almost in a position of needing the Bearcats to lose to have any hope. There are many ways a spot can open up for Cincinnati, but even two spots opening up doesn't mean Notre Dame gets in. If spots are guaranteed for Georgia-Alabama, Ohio State-Michigan, and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State if they win out, then Cincinnati is well-situated to take the last slot—if the losing SEC team doesn't. But any chaos—a Wisconsin Big Ten win, or Baylor winning the Big 12—puts Cincy in but the Irish are either #5 or #6 without a Cincinnati loss.
In other words, it isn't difficult to make a scenario where Cincinnati is in. But building a Notre Dame scenario is a lot tougher, even though they're next in line. The "roadblock" effect, along with not having a conference championship, is all the difference.
Michigan moves up to #7 with hopes to unseat Ohio State next weekend. Note that only the top seven teams increased their odds of making the Playoff while everyone else dipped; that's because it's crunch time and the results are coming in. There are not many points left for potential.
Michigan State the biggest loser, Texas A&M the big winner
Michigan State suffers the biggest fall, from #15 to #21. They remain projected at 9-3 which includes a loss next week to Penn State, so they still have opportunity on their side. But without a chance for a conference title they have no real chance at all. The Spartans were supposed to lose, but they weren't supposed to lose 56-7 and the Committee really hates blowout losses.
Texas A&M meanwhile moves up from #20 to #15, all due to the Committee's ranking of 16th from last week. Can't argue with the actual ranking when you're projecting...the actual ranking. Five spots for beating Prairie View A&M is a pretty good deal. They also gain a tiny amount of odds, up from 0.3% to 0.5% to make the Playoff, but that's basically a rounding error saying they have no hope.
Pittsburgh pulled off the only real 'upset' according to our projections, and that puts them at 10-2 instead of the 9-3 we had before. But they're just on the wrong end of the ACC title game vs. Wake Forest so they still have three losses and jump only to #16. This leaves open a shot to move up further in the final rankings of course.
Clemson didn't get the same boost. The Tigers already have three losses and they didn't make the conference title game and stay at a projected #19. They haven't made the actual Committee rankings yet so this may proved to be too high.
Utah only marginally boosted their profile as they'll have to beat Oregon again to win the Pac-12 and beating a team twice—even one you beat 38-7—is tough. This one won't be a home game either. Mostly the Utes will be playing "what if" as in, what if we hadn't lost in overtime to San Diego State, and hadn't let Oregon State come back on us...then the Pac-12 championship would likely be for a Ute Playoff berth.
Three non-Committee teams left
Now that once-promising Arizona State has exited the stage for good, and there might not be any new teams in the Committee's list this week, there are only three teams on our list that aren't on theirs (and vice versa). We covered Clemson; a 9-3 Clemson will probably make a token appearance in the final or penultimate rankings. Penn State will make it in if they beat Michigan State, and won't if they don't. That leaves Louisiana-Lafayette, 10-1 now after an impressive 48-14 road win at Liberty. There's no room this week but if the Ragin' Cajuns go 12-1 they'll be in the final poll.
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