One of Malcolm Gladwell's famous books is The Tipping Point, referring to the point at which a very subtle shift triggers a major change. Well, our College Football Committee final standings projections had one of those after this weekend.
Oklahoma's loss, which we figured would drop the Sooners from #2 to #4, instead pushed them from 13-0 to a projected 10-2 and all the way down to #13. The reason is that the game at Oklahoma State became a loss, and with that the Big 12 Championship Game no longer includes Oklahoma. Instead it's Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, with the Cowboys the projected winner. They finish 12-1 and #4 in our projection, up from #9 last week.
Oklahoma State has been playing lights out since their 24-21 loss at Iowa State. They beat Kansas 55-3—the same Kansas team that almost upset the Sooners and did upset Texas on Saturday. They handled West Virginia 24-3 on the road, then blasted TCU 63-17 the week after the Horned Frogs had upset Baylor.
Their improvement is as much responsible for the switch as Oklahoma's noted struggles, but without the Baylor upset Oklahoma would still make the Big 12 title game and possibly still win on a neutral field. That was Oklahoma's best 12-1 scenario. Now they have to beat Oklahoma State twice, and beating the same team twice in a row just doesn't have the same impact on the Committee (who already ranked them pretty low at #8). It also devalues your main conquest. So Oklahoma's chances going forward are definitely compromised. They'd be better off winning a rematch with Baylor, but that would require Oklahoma State to lose next week to Texas Tech.
Georgia and Ohio State moved up to #2 and #3 after beating Tennessee and Purdue, two solid wins. Alabama beat the 51-point spread against woeful New Mexico State and remained #1. Cincinnati remained outside looking in at #5, with Notre Dame and Oregon following at #6 and #7.
SportsRatings Projected Final College Football Committee rankings, post-week 11
(11/14/2021, with last week's CFP ranking and weekend results):
LW Rnk Team CFP Rec Proj %Odds %Chg ±Chg Results: 1 1. Alabama 2 9-1 12-1 72.8 +1.5 --- W NM State 59-3 3 2. Georgia 1 10-0 12-1 70.7 +5.1 up 1 W @Tenn 41-17 4 3. Ohio State 4 9-1 12-1 66.5 +6.9 up 1 W (19)Purdue 59-31 9 4. Oklahoma St 10 9-1 12-1 60.2 +50.3 up 5 W TCU 63-17 5 5. Cincinnati 5 10-0 13-0 35.4 +0.5 --- W @USF 45-28 6 6. Notre Dame 9 9-1 11-1 29.1 +0.2 --- W @Virginia 28-3 7 7. Oregon 3 9-1 11-2 12.5 -0.1 --- W Wash St 38-24 11 8. Wake Forest 12 9-1 11-2 10.4 +2.2 up 3 W (16)NC State 45-42 16 9. Michigan 6 9-1 10-2 9.2 +8.2 up 7 W @#13 Penn St 21-17 17 10. Baylor 13 8-2 10-3 8.1 +7.1 up 7 W #2 Oklahoma 27-14 8 11. Mississippi 15 8-2 10-2 7.0 -3.7 dn 3 W #21 Texas A&M 29-19 10 12. BYU 14 8-2 10-2 5.8 -3.2 dn 2 idle 2 13. Oklahoma 8 9-1 10-2 4.7 -64.8 dn 11 L @#17 Baylor 27-14 12 14. Iowa 20 8-2 10-2 3.6 -3.7 dn 2 W Minnesota 27-22 14 15. Michigan St 7 9-1 9-3 0.9 -1.4 up 1 W Maryland 40-21 18 16. UTSA 23 10-0 13-0 0.8 0.0 up 2 W So. Miss 27-17 19 17. Wisconsin 18 7-3 9-4 0.7 0.0 up 2 W Nwestern 35-7 20 18. Pittsburgh 21 8-2 9-3 0.6 +0.1 up 2 W UNC 30-23 OT 15 19. Clemson -- 7-3 9-3 0.4 -1.1 dn 4 W UConn 44-7 21 20. Texas A&M 11 7-3 9-3 0.3 -0.1 up 1 L @#8 Ole Miss 29-19 22 21. Utah 24 7-3 9-4 0.2 -0.2 up 1 W @Arizona 38-29 23 22. Arizona St -- 7-3 9-3 0.1 -0.2 up 1 W @Washington 35-30 24 23. Louisiana-Laf. -- 9-1 12-1 <0.1 -0.2 up 1 W @Troy 35-21 25 24. Houston -- 9-1 11-2 <0.1 0.0 up 1 W @Temple 37-8 13 25. Penn State -- 6-4 8-4 0.0 -3.2 dn 12 L #16 Michigan 21-17 Dropped out: none
Michigan's win over Penn State was an "upset" by our projections so it helped the Wolverines as much as Baylor's win did them; both jumped 7 spots and are projected 10-2, neither making their conference title games. The Nittany Lions suffered their 4th loss but held on to our #25 spot since they're still pegged to beat Michigan State in 2 weeks.
Wake Forest beat NC State and jumped from #11 to #8, and this change is even weirder than a "tipping point"—it's a bug fix. Our projection had been wallowing under the mistaken impression that, since North Carolina is in the ACC, Wake Forest's loss to the Tar Heels—which had been projected all season—would count as a conference loss. But it turns out it's a non-conference game. Which means Wake Forest is the Atlantic winner (and should have been for several weeks). This gives them a conference title, beating Virginia and finishing 11-2. Mississippi falls to #11 despite beating Texas A&M because of Wake's technicality and being passed by the 2 other 10-2 teams from behind. BYU and Iowa are also pushed down 2 spots from the surging duo, while Michigan State falls just one spot to #15.
And since Clemson no longer gets to the ACC title game they become a typical 9-3 team and slip accordingly, allowing UTSA, Wisconsin, and Pittsburgh, all of whom won a game one way or another, to rise a bit but without increasing their tiny odds of making the Playoff.
The rest of the list moves up a spot due to Penn State's slide from #13 to #25. This includes Texas A&M (who lost to Mississippi), Utah (who escaped Arizona's upset bid), Arizona State (who beat Washington and made them fire their coach), Louisiana-Lafayette who beat Troy, and Houston who handled Temple easily.
No teams fell out of the projection this week, the first time that's happened. Penn State is still projected to be 8-4, and with Auburn losing and now projected to be 7-5, Penn State held on at #25. Teams that are in our Projection but not the Committee's top 25 went 4-1 this week after going 6-0 last week for a cumulative 10-1.
On the other hand, teams only in the Committee's top 25 and not in our Final Projection went 2-3 after a 2-4 outing last week, for a 4-7 record. This weekend (16) NC State, (17) Auburn, and (19) Purdue all lost, while (22) San Diego State won and (25) Arkansas edged LSU in overtime.
That makes room for 2 or 3 new teams in the upcoming Committee top 25. It doesn't look like any of the five in our projection are ripe for entry necessarily. Certainly Penn State won't make their debut this week, and there's no compelling reason for a 3-loss Clemson or ASU yet. 9-1 Louisiana? Maybe. 9-1 Houston is probably the most likely of the five to show up on Tuesday.
As for the opposite: Considering they keep losing, there's not much reason for the Committee's teams to show up in our projection. Of the only two that won this week, San Diego State is projected 10-2 so they're on the brink but probably need to beat Boise State in 2 weeks to make the Mountain West title game. Arkansas is actually #26 at a projected 8-4, so they might make it next week even if they lose to Alabama. And if they beat Alabama, they'll jump in for sure.
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