It seems like we just got done explaining why Cincinnati is still a relative long shot, that everything has to go right for them to get in, that there are so many pitfalls and everything has to fall into place perfectly.
Then, our very next projection shows a snapshot of everything falling into place for the Bearcats.
Losses by Iowa and Arizona State, coupled with a projected perfect storm in the Big Ten and no rising stars yet from the ACC, puts Cincinnati at #4 in our newest projection. Granted, they aren't at the magic 50% rate yet so there is much uncertainty, but uncertainty is a given in this game. On one hand, you have the fact that any of the three Big Ten teams below them could crowd past them, not to mention Michigan/Michigan State, a surging Wake Forest or resurgent Oregon. But on the other hand, a surging Notre Dame could still aid them, and if Alabama loses again there's another spot open for any "surging" teams listed in the previous sentence. 43.9% feels about right for Cincy, taking into account that they still have to win out, though that seems more predictable than anything else about the situation.
Oklahoma inhabits our #1 spot still, and the Sooners had their first convincing win over an FBS opponent to boot. Alabama and Georgia rolled on toward their inevitable showdown. But #4 Iowa bit the dust in a bad way, losing to Purdue at home in an ugly game, the kind the Committee hates to see. The Hawkeyes only fall to #6 but erase over 30% of their odds. Still, they pretty much control their own destiny for the Playoff, along with #5 Ohio State (now projected to win the Big Ten) and #7 Penn State. But our projection of each of these teams suffering another loss opens the door for Cincinnati to rise to #4.
Clemson still tracks as ACC champion, a status that won't last much longer if they keep living on the edge, though their win over Syracuse was pretty much par for the course even in their Playoff years. Mississippi also rises a spot to #9 with hopes to finish 11-1 and steal a Playoff spot in a chaotic year.
2021 College Football Committee projected final standings, post-week 7 (thru Oct. 16)
LW Rnk Team Rec %Odds %Chg Chg Results: 1 1. Oklahoma 13-0 78.3 +2.6 --- W TCU 52-31 2 2. Alabama 12-1 67.8 +9.8 --- W @ Mississippi St 49-9 3 3. Georgia 12-1 64.2 +9.8 --- W Kentucky 30-13 6 4. Cincinnati 13-0 43.9 +18.4 up 2 W UCF 56-21 8 5. Ohio State 11-2 22.9 +12.6 up 3 dnp 4 6. Iowa 10-2 17.3 -31.6 dn 2 L Purdue 24-7 7 7. Penn State 10-2 13.7 +1.9 --- dnp 9 8. Clemson 11-2 12.1 +2.4 up 1 W @ Syracuse 17-14 10 9. Mississippi 10-2 11.5 +2.4 up 1 W @ Tennessee 31-26 23 10. Oklahoma St 10-2 11.0 +10.0 up 13 W @ Texas 32-24 12 11. Notre Dame 10-2 10.4 +2.2 up 1 dnp 5 12. Arizona St 11-2 9.8 -31.6 dn 7 L @ Utah 35-21 13 13. UCLA 10-2 9.2 +1.6 --- W @ Washington 24-17 14 14. Wake Forest 10-2 8.6 +1.5 --- dnp 16 15. Coastal Carolina 13-0 4.6 +0.5 up 1 dnp 17 16. Texas-San Antonio 13-0 4.0 +0.4 up 1 W Rice 45-0 20 17. Iowa St 9-4 2.3 +1.3 up 3 W @ Kansas St 33-20 -- 18. Michigan St 9-3 1.7 +1.7 new W @ Indiana 20-15 22 19. Texas A&M 9-3 1.4 +0.4 up 2 W @ Missouri 35-14 11 20. Brigham Young 10-2 1.3 -7.4 dn 9 L @ Baylor 38-24 -- 21. Utah 9-3 1.2 +1.2 new W Arizona St 35-21 15 22. Boston College 9-3 1.0 -5.6 dn 7 L NC State 33-7 25 23. Kentucky 9-3 0.9 -0.1 up 2 L @ Georgia 30-13 -- 24. Nevada 12-1 0.7 +0.7 new @ Hawaii 34-7 -- 25. Houston 11-2 0.5 +0.5 new dnp Dropped out: #18 Texas, #19 Indiana, #21 Wisconsin, #24 Oregon
The big winner this week was Oklahoma State, who went from an also-ran 9-3 with poor prospects to the #10 slot, up 13 places. Their win at Texas marked a bad few weeks for the Longhorns as they went from the verge of beating Oklahoma and joining the elite to falling out of the projected field entirely. Still undefeated, the Cowboys move up a lot but their odds are only 11% reflecting the fact that they might need two wins over the Sooners. Oklahoma State splitting games with Oklahoma might be a nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, or it might be just what the doctor ordered, it's hard to say.
Speaking of the Bearcats, it's looking like Notre Dame is mattering less and less to their fortunes. Partly because the Irish schedule is getting weaker by the week and an 11-1 Irish might not give Cincy much "push" after all. And it seems like people are getting used the idea of Cincinnati in the Playoff. We don't know yet if that's the case with the Committee; if they aren't drinking the Kool-Aid, then Cincy needs Notre Dame to keep winning.
Arizona State is the week's other big loser after Iowa, and they fall a lot farther as our projection doesn't seem to value a Pac-12 title win over a 9-4 Oregon very much. The Sun Devils lost to Utah, who make their first appearance at #21. ASU's previous win over UCLA stops their descent at #12; the Bruins beat Washington to hang on to their meager hope for a miracle bid or at least a top ten finish in the rankings. The Pac-12 appears to be out of luck again unless Oregon comes alive, which we don't seem to think is very likely; they fall out of the projection after barely surviving Cal at home last Friday. Another ding for the Pac-12 is that BYU lost again, this time to Baylor of the Big 12; the Cougars, who have wins over ASU and Utah, fall to #20 as a 10-2 BYU will be treated like a 3-loss Power Five team.
Wake Forest is another sleeper team, and the ACC is the real sleeper conference as far as the Playoff is concerned. Unlike the Pac-12 they have several theoretically viable teams, though only the Demon Deacons show up here. Boston College joins Clemson at 2 losses (projected to have 3) and falls to #22. But the team that beat them 33-7, North Carolina State, is 5-1 as is Pittsburgh. Both can break into the rankings if they win next week, and both would have a real shot at the Playoff if they go 12-1. Wake Forest at 13-0 would be a Playoff shoo-in I think, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. If we're projecting a lot of chaos for the Big Ten, it certainly could crimp the ACC as well. It just hasn't happened yet, while the Pac-12's demise is almost complete for this year.
The projected undefeated Group of Five duo Coastal Carolina and UTSA sit at #15 and #16, up a spot each. They cling together here but how will the Committee see them? The Chanticleers are viewed with much more prestige after last year's success, and the eye-test (and power ratings) show them to be the better team, so there will probably be some separation between the two. If so, look for UTSA to be lower than we project, rather than Coastal being higher, as both have weak schedules; Coastal beat Kansas and UTSA topped Arizona for their only Power Five wins.
#17 Iowa State bides its time hoping to upset Oklahoma twice for...some consolation prize, I guess, though it's not impossible for a 2-loss team to finish in the top 4—a 2-loss team has finished #5 three times out of the 7 Playoff years. Texas A&M is in the same boat, with 2 losses but plugging away. But new entry Michigan State has potential. At last "over the hump" after surviving at Indiana (who finally drops out), the Spartans next face Michigan, who still isn't respected here but will be if they beat the their in-state rivals. The Big Ten picture could change radically over the next few weeks for us. Note that after Iowa's loss Wisconsin is even back in our Big Ten title game, but all that does is give them another loss and drop them off the chart despite beating Army over the weekend. So many good teams, and we have them all feasting on each other.
Kentucky became our first #25 team to survive to the next weekend, and in spite of a pretty big loss. They're in the same boat as Mississippi, hoping to finish 11-1 which probably won't put them in the SEC title game, but could possibly put them in the Playoff if their SOS is compared to a team like, say, Cincinnati. The 30-13 loss doesn't look great, but it's not disqualifying.
Finally, Nevada re-enters at #24 (they were #25 a few weeks ago), followed by Houston's debut at #25. A projected 2-loss Group of Five team normally wouldn't make it near our radar, but Houston's 2nd loss is projected to be in the C-USA title game to Cincinnati, and now that the Bearcats are "in" the Playoff, the loss is discounted for the Cougars. Unlike SMU, Houston doesn't play Cincy during the regular season.
Comments