Week Five
You know it's a good one because it's odd-numbered. Week 1 and 3 were full of great matchups while 2 and 4 were lame. But this one might be the best so far with 5 intra-top 25 games in our projected College Football Playoff list, and several other teams taking on 4-0 squads looking to make their mark. Here's what's going on:
- #5 Notre Dame (4-0) vs. #16 Cincinnati (3-0): This is the big one for a lot of reasons, mainly because it's Cincy's last hurdle to being undefeated. Notre Dame just got a boost from upsetting Wisconsin and they'd give that all back if they lose to the Bearcats. Cincinnati would be forecast at 13-0 with a win, though they would still need Notre Dame to finish with 1-loss to really have a great chance at the Playoff. Beating an eventual 9-3 Irish team wouldn't be quite as impressive.
- #7 Arizona State (3-1) at #12 UCLA (3-1): The Sun Devil loss to BYU and UCLA loss to Fresno took a bit of shine off this one. It once was a Playoff eliminator, but it's still considered the Pac-12 championship game by our projection. The oddsmakers favor UCLA, and that would shake things up a bit, hurting BYU's chances almost as much as ASU's.
- #1 Alabama (4-0) vs. #11 Mississippi (3-0): The #1 team is involved but it's hard to put this one higher than 3rd most interesting game because the Tide are a 2-touchdown favorite. Thought Ole Miss has a great offense and defense is Bama's weak spot this year, the Tide are at home and they often punish teams when stuff happens like people start to say Georgia is a better team than they are. An upset here would really screw up the SEC title picture as Ole Miss would be favored to get in the title game vs. Georgia, probably giving them a loss and keeping Alabama ahead of them in the final rankings ironically—unless they win by blowout, a very unlikely scenario.
- #10 Clemson (2-2) vs. #14 Boston College (4-0): Boston College comes in with a much better record, though Clemson is still our favorite to win the ACC in the end. The Tigers need this one to stay at all relevant, but for Boston College it's a huge opportunity. Win this and they are a 1-loss team and probably make the ACC title game...things start to get interesting. But are they really any good? We still don't know. We do know that Clemson is vulnerable since they apparently have no offense.
- #8 Indiana (2-2) at #18 Penn State (4-0): This one should help clarify the Big Ten picture for our projection, which stubbornly holds out Indiana as a contender. The Lions are a 12 1/2 point favorite and would close the door on the Hoosiers if it isn't already. Now just watch Indiana come alive and keep things convoluted. We look at our projection of Indiana right now as being an embodiment of "chaos" at work. Upsets do happen.
2021 College Football Playoff Committee Projected Final Standings pre-week 5
Rnk Team Rec %Odds This weekend: 1. Alabama 13-0 72.9 #11 Mississippi 2. Oklahoma 13-0 71.5 @ Kansas State 3. Iowa 11-1 46.1 @ Maryland 4. Georgia 12-1 40.7 Arkansas 5. Notre Dame 11-1 33.3 #16 Cincinnati 6. Brigham Young 12-0 27.8 @ Utah State 7. Arizona St 12-1 24.4 @ #12 UCLA 8. Indiana 11-2 9.5 @ #18 Penn State 9. Ohio State 10-2 9.1 @ Rutgers 10. Clemson 11-2 8.6 #14 Boston College 11. Mississippi 10-2 8.2 @ #1 Alabama 12. UCLA 10-2 7.8 #7 Arizona State 13. Wake Forest 10-2 7.3 Louisville 14. Boston College 10-2 6.9 @ #10 Clemson 15. Oregon 10-3 6.5 @ Stanford 16. Cincinnati 12-1 4.3 @ #5 Notre Dame 17. Coastal Carolina 13-0 3.9 Louisiana-Monroe 18. Penn State 9-3 2.6 #8 Indiana 19. Wisconsin 10-3 2.2 Michigan 20. Miami FL 10-3 1.7 Virginia 21. Iowa St 9-4 1.3 Kansas 22. Oklahoma St 9-3 0.9 Baylor 23. North Carolina 9-3 0.9 Duke 24. Texas A&M 9-3 0.9 Mississippi St 25. Florida 9-3 0.9 @ Kentucky
And if those five games aren't enough to whet your appetite, we also have:
- #3 Iowa (4-0) at Maryland (4-0)
- #4 Georgia (4-0) vs. Arkansas (4-0)
- #19 Wisconsin (2-2) vs. Michigan (4-0)
- #22 Oklahoma State (4-0) vs. Baylor (4-0)
- #25 Florida (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0)
The downside for the ranked teams is obvious, as our projection favors the ranked team in each case. But which of these undefeated teams will make an appearance with a win? Not Maryland. We picked them to be 4-0 at this point—and to finish 5-7. It will take more than an upset of Iowa for them to get on our radar. Nor Michigan. Though the Wolverines are 2 wins ahead already of where we thought they'd be, beating Wisconsin isn't going to carry enough weight just yet.
Arkansas has a chance. If they can beat Georgia they'll be projected at 8-4, which might be near the bottom of our rankings. They're already a game ahead after upsetting Texas A&M last week. Baylor would also be at 8-4 if they beat Oklahoma State, following the Iowa State upset last week. As would Kentucky, though we had them 4-0 at this point so they haven't deviated from the 7-5 we picked for them yet.
Interestingly the oddsmakers favor all of our ranked teams over the 4-0 teams, so the undefeated upstarts—even Michigan—have something to prove to Vegas as well as to our pre-season prognostications.
Everyone Else
We don't know what to expect from #2 Oklahoma this week at Kansas State, and #6 BYU looked bad last week too. That probably means both have blowout wins this time around. Will #9 Ohio State get the scare this week instead against a tough 3-1 Rutgers?
Wake Forest hosts Louisville and is just a 7 point favorite, which once again feels a bit insulting. We have the Deacs by 14 in either of our power ratings (early Strength or Bayesian updates). #15 Oregon travels to unpredictable Stanford, while #17 Coastal Carolina hosts ULM who amazingly just upset Troy.
Miami is playing Virginia Thursday night, while Iowa State should have a breather vs. Kansas and UNC the same vs. Duke. Texas A&M is a touchdown favorite vs. Mississippi State.
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