So far the college football season is alternating weekends of high profile showdowns and likely snoozefests.
Week one had Clemson vs. Georgia; week two had what seemed like the entire FBS vs. the FCS.
Week three had tough tests for all the top teams; week four has...Southern Miss at Alabama?
We don't think #1 Alabama (a 45 point favorite) will be tested like they were last weekend at Florida. #2 Oklahoma is a 17 point favorite, #3 Iowa a 23 point favorite, and #4 Georgia a 5 touchdown favorite. In fact of our top 7 teams it's surprisingly #5 Clemson that is set to have the toughest test, at North Carolina State.
But there is one marquee game this weekend: #9 Wisconsin vs. #15 Notre Dame. The game is in Chicago and the Badgers are almost a touchdown favorite; we have them by 10 points but they've only played 2 games so it's hard to know what to expect from them. If Notre Dame gets the upset, suddenly the Irish are a Playoff threat with only a few hurdles on their way to a 12-0 season that would almost certainly put them in the top four. The Badgers have already lost—to Penn State—and realistically need to win out and win the Big Ten to get in the Playoff. A 1-loss Notre Dame is likely outside looking in but you never know.
2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection: week four preview
Rnk Team Rec %Odds This weekend: 1. Alabama 13-0 70.9 Southern Miss 2. Oklahoma 13-0 69.5 West Virginia 3. Iowa 11-1 45.0 Colorado St 4. Georgia 12-1 39.6 @ Vanderbilt 5. Clemson 12-1 32.2 @ NC State 6. Brigham Young 12-0 26.8 USF 7. Arizona St 12-1 23.4 Colorado 8. Indiana 11-2 9.0 @ W Kentucky 9. Wisconsin 11-2 8.6 vs. #15 Notre Dame 10. Ohio State 10-2 8.2 Akron 11. Mississippi 10-2 7.8 idle 12. Texas A&M 10-2 7.4 vs. Arkansas 13. Iowa St 10-3 7.0 @ Baylor 14. North Carolina 10-2 6.6 @ GA Tech 15. Notre Dame 10-2 6.2 vs. #9 Wisconsin 16. UCLA 10-2 5.8 @ Stanford 17. Miami FL 10-3 5.4 Central Conn 18. Wake Forest 10-2 5.0 @ Virginia 19. Boston College 10-2 4.6 Missouri 20. Oregon 10-3 4.2 Arizona 21. Cincinnati 12-1 2.3 idle 22. Coastal Carolina 13-0 1.9 UMass 23. Penn State 9-3 0.8 Villanova 24. Oklahoma St 9-3 0.8 Kansas St 25. TCU 9-3 0.8 SMU
Not much excitement beyond that. #12 Texas A&M plays Arkansas in Arlington and is a slim 5-point favorite. #13 Iowa State is a touchdown favorite vs. undefeated Baylor. And #16 UCLA is likewise favored by less than a score vs. Stanford. Any of those upsets would sink the already meager Playoff hopes of the favorites. And speaking of meager Playoff hopes....
Last Stand for Wake Forest, Boston College?
Wake Forest and Boston College are currently #18 and #19 in our projection, and not because our power ratings think they're all that good. Most of their ranking comes from having very easy schedules and a much higher-than-normal likelihood of having very few losses. So far they've done well enough—they haven't lost. But neither has really impressed that much. Wake Forest travels to Virginia where they are a 4 point underdog, and our Bayesian power rating concurs, suggesting Virginia will win by a point. Boston College is 1 1/2 point underdog by Vegas and a half-point underdog in our books.
I wouldn't count them out yet though. People have been underestimating Wake Forest a lot already this year. They pounded FSU 35-14 last week after being a pretty slim favorite. Boston College has played a very weak schedule so far. They won handily every game but let UMass score 28, and only scored 28 themselves vs. Temple. Missouri is a big step up but the Eagles are at home.
If they both lose, their projected records will fall to 9-3 and with their weak schedules, they'll probably be considered the weakest of the 3-loss teams and fall out of consideration (or very nearly so). So this could be the last time you see Wake and/or BC on our list.
Cincinnati waiting...
Cincinnati just joined our list last week and this week they're idle. Next up? Notre Dame. The Bearcats really need Notre Dame to beat Wisconsin this week. A 1-loss Notre Dame—with their sole loss being to Cincinnati—is probably the only recipe for a Bearcat trip to the Playoff.
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