In week 2, none of our top teams faced any kind of challenge at all (Ohio State wasn't a top team), playing weak foes. The top two teams—and four of the top six—played FCS opponents!
That changes in week 3 as our current top four all play teams that are at least somewhat challenging, some even downright dangerous. And this time only one FCS opponent in the entire top 25.
Let's start with the top two teams, Alabama and Oklahoma, who play Florida and Nebraska. Some years ago both would be considered deadly opponents and probably 50/50 games. Playing at Florida was an impossible task; Nebraska was the game on the schedule marked for Game of the Year. But these days, with Alabama's ascent to every-other-season national champ, even a foray to The Swamp isn't much to fear. And mostly due to Nebraska's decline, the Sooners probably don't have much to worry about. Both teams are around 20 point favorites by our Power Ratings, and 15 and 22 point favorites by Vegas. Still, this beats Mercer and Western Carolina, and the threat of an upset is still there in both cases.
The real Games of the Week concern our #3 and #4 teams, Arizona State and Indiana
First, Indiana. We projected the Hoosiers to lose to Iowa then win out. So far they've proven they can definitely lose to Iowa. The rest? Not so much. Their first hurdle comes when they host Cincinnati. It's a put-up or shut-up moment. Win and they show the college football world they're still alive. Lose, and at 1-2 we will have to admit we were wrong about them and they will tumble down the projection to a much more realistic spot. We still favor them to win by a couple points, but Vegas has soured on them and favors Cincinnati by a field goal. It's also a big moment for Cincinnati, as it's one of the two games they're most likely to lose (along with Notre Dame). They need to win to be considered a real Playoff contender; right now we have them losing both games and, as a result, not even finishing in the top 25 come Committee decision time. That can change Saturday.
Arizona State has underperformed too, against poor opponents. How will they do against their first real live foe in Brigham Young? Obviously they need a win to live up to our extremely lofty expectations, but the real onus is on BYU. ASU could conceivably lose to BYU, win out and win the Pac-12 by beating Oregon, and still make the Playoff. BYU almost needs to go undefeated to get any consideration. Even at a projected 11-1 they finish #10; with no conference title game they finish behind every 1-loss Power Five school. But if they go undefeated against their majority-Power Five schedule, and have a signature win against Arizona State? It might get them to the Playoff—if ASU, or Utah, or one of their other Pac-12 victims wins that conference. This is really more about BYU than ASU. We have the Sun Devils by a touchdown, and Vegas has them by a field goal.
Current projection of final College Football Playoff standings: this week's opponents, with projected losses in bold
Rnk Team Rec %Odds This weekend: 1. Alabama 13-0 69.6 @ Florida 2. Oklahoma 13-0 68.2 Nebraska 3. Arizona St 13-0 64.9 @ BYU 4. Indiana 12-1 33.9 Cincinnati 5. Iowa 11-1 26.5 Kent State 6. Georgia 12-1 21.2 South Carolina 7. Clemson 12-1 17.8 Georgia Tech 8. UCLA 11-1 16.4 Fresno State 9. Wisconsin 11-2 8.3 -- 10. Brigham Young 11-1 7.9 Arizona State (L) 11. Miami FL 11-2 7.5 Michigan State 12. Ohio State 10-2 7.2 Tulsa 13. Mississippi 10-2 6.8 Tulane 14. Texas A&M 10-2 6.4 New Mexico 15. North Carolina 10-2 6.1 Virginia 16. Notre Dame 10-2 5.7 Purdue 17. Iowa St 10-3 5.4 @ UNLV 18. Wake Forest 10-2 5.0 Florida State 19. Boston College 10-2 4.6 @ Temple 20. Oregon 10-3 4.3 Stony Brook 21. Coastal Carolina 13-0 2.5 @ Buffalo 22. Penn State 9-3 1.4 Auburn 23. Oklahoma St 9-3 1.1 @ Boise State 24. TCU 9-3 0.7 -- 25. Florida 9-3 0.7 Alabama (L)
Really, the rest of the Top 25 doesn't face all that much challenge. Iowa, Georgia, Clemson, and UCLA are all hefty favorites and Wisconsin is idle. That's the top ten.
Some teams that are only single-digit favorites include #11 Miami who hosts 2-0 Michigan State; #15 North Carolina (vs. 2-0 Virginia); #16 Notre Dame who hosts 2-0 Purdue; and #18 Wake Forest who hosts 0-2 Florida State. Note that this is Vegas's pronouncement; we have all these teams as double-digit winners, but they've all lost games or shown some weakness (except Wake), and their opponents are 2-0 (except FSU...looks like Wake Forest will never be a big favorite against FSU).
That's the top 20. We need to go to the last five to see a few interesting games. The first is Coastal Carolina who travels to Buffalo. If this were last year's Buffalo team we'd call it for the Bulls most likely, and we still se a close game with the Chanticleers winning by 3. Vegas has them a much wider two-touchdown victor.
Penn State vs. Auburn is a big game for both teams. We projected Penn State at 7-5 pre-season and Auburn was counted as a win. We stand by that but it looks close, with Auburn about a touchdown underdog (Vegas agrees). The Tigers are currently projected at 8-4 and winning here would put them on our radar (and knock Penn State off for now).
Finally, Oklahoma State at Boise State is the most likely "upset" on this page. The Cowboys have looked pretty average so far. They haven't lost and it's only a 2-game sample so there's nothing to worry about yet, but also nothing to suggest that 9-3 isn't a ceiling. And that best-case is going to be tested, as our current power rating sees a very close game and probable Cowboy loss. Vegas sees that too, making Boise a 4 1/2 point favorite. Boise won't get on our list with a win—they already lost to UCF which hurt them a lot—but Oklahoma State would be booted.
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