2021 Week 2 Bayesian Power Rating

Week 2 had fewer big games and it seemed that half the FBS played FCS teams. As such, these games are hard to rate performance-wise for a lot of reason.

First, FCS teams are harder to scout in a normal year let along the past few. Normally we use last year's rating for an FCS team, but many FCS team played in the spring or didn't play at all, so we are using spring values or 2019 ratings.

Second, and more importantly, the expected spreads for these games is often astronomical. If a team doesn't win by that astronomical amount, their rating declines. Is it their fault that they didn't win by 63, but instead only 49? Our reasoning: you shouldn't be scheduling a team you have to beat by 63 to keep your rating.

Our top two teams (Alabama, Oklahoma) are good examples of this. Alabama played Mercer and was a 69 point favorite in our ratings. They won 48-14 (34 points) so they underperformed greatly. Is it reasonable that their rating declined? They remain #1, but the margin between Alabama and Oklahoma tightened significantly. No, we shouldn't encourage running up the score but not getting a shutout says something. When a team can't keep its intensity up against a far inferior opponent, that says something. And again, we shouldn't encourage matchups like this.

Oklahoma faced Western Carolina and our power rating said they should win by 72. That's completely unreasonable to expect a team to win any game by that much. But Oklahoma won 76-0. So they basically tread water from last week.

In action among real teams, Iowa beat Iowa State and moved up to #3. The Cyclones even moved up two spots due to bad performances from Ohio State (loss), and Texas A&M and Miami (very tight wins). Penn State launched into the top ten after dominating Ball State, who fell out of our top 25. In a few weeks all the MAC teams will be where they should be, I think.

The Iowa, Penn State, and Oklahoma games were the #2, #3, #4 best-rated performances of the week. The best? Georgia's 56-7 beatdown of UAB. That moved the Bulldogs ahead of previous victim Clemson into #4.

Big Movers: Houston (beat Rice 44-7) up 20 from #87 to #67 ; Arkansas (beat Texas 40-21) up 15 from #36 to #21; and Oregon (beat Ohio State 35-28) up 13 from #53 to #40. In other words, Oregon is still well outside the top 25 in our power rating.

Big Losers: USC (lost to Stanford 42-28) down 20 from #38 to #58; Ohio (lost to Duquesne 28-26) down 16 from #78 to #94; and Louisiana-Lafayette (beat SE Louisiana 45-42) down 15 from #24 to #39.

The award for worst performance goes to UConn, who fell into dead-last #130 after losing to Purdue at home 49-0 in their first game with interim coach Lou Spanos.

2021 Week 2 Bayesian modification to pre-season ratings

W1	W2	Team	W2 Rating
1	1	Alabama	30.96
2	2	Oklahoma	27.62
4	3	Iowa	27.33
5	4	Georgia	25.93
3	5	Clemson	24.03
7	6	Wisconsin	23.30
15	7	Penn State	20.90
8	8	Arizona St	19.57
11	9	Iowa St	19.11
9	10	Texas A&M	19.09
12	11	Toledo	18.95
6	12	Ohio State	18.68
10	13	Miami FL	18.46
19	14	North Carolina	17.89
16	15	UCLA	17.38
13	16	Cincinnati	17.14
18	17	Auburn	16.93
14	18	Indiana	15.77
17	19	Mississippi	15.48
26	20	Michigan	13.18
36	21	Arkansas	12.82
28	22	Notre Dame	12.65
25	23	Minnesota	12.49
21	24	Coastal Carolina	11.63
23	25	Central Michigan	11.56
20	26	Texas	11.48
30	27	Rutgers	11.15
22	28	Ball St	10.79
39	29	Kent St	10.66
27	30	Western Michigan	10.51
29	31	TCU	10.13
35	32	Brigham Young	9.56
31	33	Eastern Michigan	9.44
34	34	Maryland	9.12
32	35	Oklahoma St	9.12
37	36	Miami OH	9.03
33	37	Florida	8.81
49	38	Nebraska	8.44
24	39	Louisiana-Lafayette	8.31
53	40	Oregon	7.75
48	41	Appalachian St	7.55
43	42	Wake Forest	6.47
50	43	Liberty	6.39
46	44	Boise St	5.87
47	45	Virginia Tech	5.66
41	46	LSU	5.60
45	47	Utah	5.56
42	48	North Carolina St	5.56
51	49	Baylor	5.20
54	50	West Virginia	5.04
57	51	Mississippi St	4.78
40	52	Buffalo	4.74
52	53	Pittsburgh	4.63
44	54	Nevada	4.53
64	55	Virginia	4.37
56	56	Wyoming	4.28
60	57	Central Florida	4.06
38	58	Southern Cal	4.04
59	59	Tulane	4.01
55	60	Northwestern	3.78
58	61	Purdue	3.49
66	62	California	2.42
63	63	San José St	1.94
71	64	Colorado	1.78
61	65	Missouri	1.53
62	66	Troy	1.07
87	67	Houston	1.01
68	68	Kentucky	0.94
65	69	Northern Illinois	0.32
67	70	Washington	-0.03
70	71	Marshall	-0.23
74	72	Michigan St	-1.19
84	73	Oregon St	-1.20
83	74	Texas-San Antonio	-2.02
79	75	Memphis	-2.02
82	76	Louisville	-2.25
72	77	Kansas St	-2.35
69	78	Boston College	-3.08
86	79	SMU	-3.27
85	80	Tennessee	-3.29
73	81	Army	-3.59
88	82	Syracuse	-3.70
75	83	Alabama-Birmingham	-3.75
91	84	Tulsa	-3.76
93	85	San Diego St	-3.93
76	86	Illinois	-3.99
80	87	Washington St	-4.11
77	88	Texas Tech	-4.28
81	89	East Carolina	-4.35
98	90	Stanford	-5.02
94	91	Georgia Tech	-5.44
97	92	Florida Atlantic	-5.76
89	93	Hawai`i	-5.77
78	94	Ohio U.	-6.62
90	95	Fresno St	-6.64
95	96	Georgia St	-8.41
92	97	Florida St	-8.61
99	98	Air Force	-10.06
100	99	Arkansas St	-11.31
104	100	South Carolina	-11.92
101	101	Middle Tennessee St	-11.93
96	102	Rice	-12.37
103	103	Colorado St	-13.34
102	104	South Alabama	-13.61
109	105	UNLV	-15.38
106	106	Texas St-San Marcos	-15.49
114	107	Utah St	-16.15
112	108	Louisiana Tech	-16.80
111	109	Vanderbilt	-17.24
105	110	Arizona	-17.40
119	111	Duke	-18.68
107	112	Georgia Southern	-18.75
110	113	Southern Miss	-19.17
113	114	Florida Int'l	-19.47
108	115	New Mexico	-19.92
118	116	Western Kentucky	-20.72
115	117	North Texas	-21.58
117	118	South Florida	-22.63
122	119	UNC-Charlotte	-27.26
116	120	Akron	-27.78
121	121	Bowling Green	-28.16
125	122	Temple	-28.42
120	123	Navy	-28.81
124	124	Kansas	-28.86
123	125	UTEP	-30.83
127	126	Old Dominion	-31.96
126	127	Louisiana-Monroe	-33.35
129	128	Massachusetts	-42.97
130	129	New Mexico St	-43.71
128	130	Connecticut	-44.46