2021 Week 1 best and worst performances

Every single FBS team—all 130—played over the long weekend. Who did the best? Who did the worst in week one? Here we go.

Best (rankings are ours pre-season):

1. #1 Alabama 44-13 over #8 Miami (neutral): Sad to say but the best team had the best game. How's that for ruining any surprise going forward in the season? It wasn't unexpected—we pointed out how Alabama punishes teams in the first game, ruining both that's teams hope for a championship year, as well as the college football world's hope that things might be different this year. This was the best performance and it wasn't even close. The loss knocked Miami down to #12 in our early-season Bayesian power ratings.
2. #7 Iowa 34-6 over #11 Indiana: The Hawkeyes dominated from the start and led 31-3 at the half, getting two pick-sixes in the win. Iowa rose to #3 after this and Indiana fell to #16.
3. #21 Cincinnati 49-14 over #31 Miami Ohio: Part of this results is just the MAC teams being overrated in our pre-season, but there's no doubt Cincy took care of business in a big way regardless, moving up to #11 while Miami dropped to #39. They probably still have a lot farther to fall but we'll see.
4. #14 Texas A&M 41-10 over #34 Kent State: Another MAC overrating but another solid performance in a week where a lot of the best teams clearly underperformed. The Aggies rise to #8 and the Flashes fall to #40.
5. #43 Michigan 47-14 over #17 Western Mich: Three in a row from the MAC, and this one we expected Michigan to lose as we ranked them only #43 with the Broncos in the top 25! They fall to #28 while the Wolverines jump to #24, so at least their relative ranks have been corrected. Wolverine fans might not be seeing this as a big deal but it could be.
6. #9 Georgia 10-3 over #3 Clemson (neutral): Obviously a win over Clemson is a big deal, even in a close game where neither offense scored a touchdown. Despite the loss Clemon's performance would actually rank #11 if we had another spot, since losing to Georgia by only 7 is pretty great, too. Not much consolation for Tiger fans I fear as they fall to #4 and the Bulldogs jump to #5. It wasn't convincing enough for our Bayesian algorithm to put Georgia in front yet.
7. #10 Ohio State 45, #26 Minnesota 14 (road): Most observers saw this as a weak Buckeye performance but since we only had them #10—and had Minnesota #26—we weren't surprised, and in the end it wasn't as close as we expected. Either way we see beating the Gophers in Minneapolis to be a tough feat. Minnesota holds at #26, though, as Ohio State climbs to #6.
8. #22 Penn State 16, #6 Wisconsin 10 (road): Another Big Ten road win, this one an upset by Penn State who jumps to #15 while Wisconsin falls just to #7 after losing by less than a touchdown. The Badgers could have dominated this game if their offense could have functioned in the red zone but Penn State wasn't having it, getting two consecutive late picks defending their goal.
9. #30 Texas 38, #25 Louisiana-Lafayette 18: Texas was ranked lower but we expected a close win at home; instead the Longhorns won convincingly over a top 25 team. ULL remains at #25 while Texas, having proved they are better to the satisfaction of our Bayesian formula, jumps to #20.
10. #24 Auburn 60, #114 Akron 10: Another MAC victim, but this one isn't overrated at #114 (though they do slip to #118 after). The Tigers avoided the first-game jitters that caused a lot of the top-ranked teams to lose or almost lose. 

Now for the five worst. Few surprises here:

1. #129 UConn 28, Holy Cross 38: This loss caused a coach to resign and then essentially get fired afterwards. Losing at home to an FCS team will do that sometimes.
2. #128 UMass 7, #50 Pittsburgh 51: UMass actually exceeded expectations with this terrible game. As a result Pitt actually fell a couple of spots for not dominating enough. Should have gotten the shutout, Panthers!
3. #119 Navy 7, #85 Marshall 49: Navy got destroyed at home by Marshall who rose to #67 as a result. Navy only dropped to #120 though, since the spacing at the bottom is pretty wide.
4. #130 New Mexico State 3, #126 UTEP 30: Not the biggest blowout loss but it came to the #126 team at home. It still didn't change either team's ranking as New Mexico State can't go any lower.
5. #124 Temple 14, #33 Rutgers 61: The Owls laid an egg in their first game as Rutgers—ranked #33 in our pre-season but never feared as a team that should put up 60+ points—took it to them all day. The Scarlet Knights jumped to #27 while Temple held at #124 (which is reasonable for having the #126 performance)