Just Don't Lose.
Sounds like a poor man's Nike slogan, but it should be the mantra for teams vying to make the College Football Playoff. As long as you don't lose, you're helping your chances. Because there will always be a slew of other teams that do lose, and that will help your own odds.
Many of the teams in our projection won ugly, but they won, and that's (almost) all that matters. There were a handful that won with style, but those were usually mitigated by sorry competition anyway. Case in point: #1 Alabama, who beat Southern Miss 63-14, only a few points shy of our Bayesian power rating's 51-point spread. And #4 Georgia, who has taken pole position in our early Strength Power Rating, beat Vanderbilt 62-0 and moved up to #2 in our Bayesian rankings. The Bulldogs have also taken over from Alabama at #1 in ESPN's FPI and SP+ rankings.
But our other two projected Playoff teams didn't fare as well. #3 Iowa was losing 14-7 at the half to Colorado State, and #2 Oklahoma needed a last-second field goal to avoid overtime vs. West Virginia—at home. That's dropped the Sooners and Hawkeyes from many people's 4-team list, but we're looking at the long game and until they actually lose they're not going anywhere.
The big winner of the weekend was of course Notre Dame, who pulled away from Wisconsin in the 4th quarter to finish with a gaudy 41-13 win. This puts the Irish at 11-1 projected and right in the thick of things. Given the close calls in the top teams, the Irish could move into the 4-team field any week, but they have to beat Cincinnati first. And only going undefeated would secure them a spot, as other undefeated and 1-loss teams could pass them and keep a 1-loss Notre Dame outside looking in.
The Irish got an assist from North Carolina State who booted Clemson in double overtime. The Tigers fall from #5 to #10, disgorging over 23 percentage points that Notre Dame gobbled up. With 2 losses, the Tigers are hard-pressed to have a Playoff chance even if they win the ACC now. They're in the bad position of having to hope for chaos.
2021 SportsRatings projected Final College Playoff Committee standings post-week 4 (9/27/2021)
LW Rnk Team Rec %Odds %Chg Chg Results: 1 1. Alabama 13-0 72.9 +2.0 --- W Southern Miss 63-14 2 2. Oklahoma 13-0 71.5 +1.9 --- W West Virginia 16-13 3 3. Iowa 11-1 46.1 +1.1 --- W Colorado St 24-14 4 4. Georgia 12-1 40.7 +1.1 --- W Vanderbilt 62-0 15 5. Notre Dame 11-1 33.3 +27.0 up 10 W =Wisconsin 41-13 6 6. Brigham Young 12-0 27.8 +1.0 --- W South Florida 35-27 7 7. Arizona St 12-1 24.4 +1.0 --- W Colorado 35-13 8 8. Indiana 11-2 9.5 +0.5 --- W @Western KY 33-31 10 9. Ohio State 10-2 9.1 +0.9 up 1 W Akron 59-7 5 10. Clemson 11-2 8.6 -23.6 dn 5 L @NC State 27-21 2OT 11 11. Mississippi 10-2 8.2 +0.4 --- idle 16 12. UCLA 10-2 7.8 +2.0 up 4 W @Stanford 35-24 18 13. Wake Forest 10-2 7.3 +2.3 up 5 W @Virginia 37-17 19 14. Boston College 10-2 6.9 +2.3 up 5 W Missouri 41-34 OT 20 15. Oregon 10-3 6.5 +2.2 up 5 W Arizona 41-19 21 16. Cincinnati 12-1 4.3 +2.0 up 5 idle 22 17. Coastal Carolina 13-0 3.9 +2.0 up 5 W UMass 53-3 23 18. Penn State 9-3 2.6 +1.8 up 5 W Villanova 38-17 9 19. Wisconsin 10-3 2.2 -6.4 dn 10 L =Notre Dame 41-13 17 20. Miami FL 10-3 1.7 -3.7 dn 3 W Central Conn 66-0 13 21. Iowa St 9-4 1.3 -5.7 dn 8 L @Baylor 31-29 24 22. Oklahoma St 9-3 0.9 +0.1 up 2 W Kansas St 31-20 14 23. North Carolina 9-3 0.9 -5.7 dn 9 L @Georgia Tech 45-22 12 24. Texas A&M 9-3 0.9 -6.5 dn 12 L =Arkansas 20-10 -- 25. Florida 9-3 0.9 +0.8 new W Tennessee 38-14
Dropped out: #25 TCU
The rest of the top ten did what it had to do: they didn't lose. Again, sometimes it was ugly, like BYU beating USF by 8 to hold at #6, or Indiana holding at #8 by escaping Western Kentucky with a 2 point win. At this point, Indiana is clearly a spoiler more than anything else, but our projection stubbornly holds onto hope the Hoosiers figure it out. Arizona State dispatched Colorado and Ohio State gained a spot by drubbing Akron 59-7, but most importantly, they didn't lose.
Neither did #11 Mississippi, who didn't play. Smart. The Rebels are followed by a raft of teams that didn't lose their games and took advantage of the fact that so many others did lose.
Wake, BC Get the Job Done, Now Represent ACC
Last week we noted that Wake Forest and Boston College were underdogs in games the projection was counting on them to win. We also noted that our pre-season rankings didn't think very much of either team, just that their schedules were weak. But both performed well—by not losing.
Wake Forest was actually impressive—again—and is starting to get noticed, making the AP Top 25 for the first time this season. They crushed Virginia on the road as a 4-point underdog. Boston College did just enough to beat Missouri in overtime, but that bucked the oddsmakers too. With Clemson's downfall and Miami and North Carolina facing difficulties, these teams might be the best hope for the conference. Both move up five spots.
UCLA jumps four spots after tackling Stanford on the road. Fellow Pac-12 member Oregon finally put weakling Arizona away and jumps 5 spots as well to #15. Cincinnati didn't lose, since they didn't play, but they move up the same 5 spots as big winners Coastal Carolina and Penn State.
The Nittany Lions are followed by former Big Ten hope Wisconsin, now 1-2 and down 10 spots to #19. Iowa State faltered against 4-0 Baylor and drops to #21; North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech and fell 9 spots to #23; and finally Texas A&M got beat by 4-0 Arkansas and dropped a full dozen spots to #24. These unexpectedly undefeated teams (Baylor, Arkansas) are not yet considered to have any long-term potential by our projection; they'll have to earn it over time!
Miami proved the exception to the slogan. They didn't lose, yet they fell three spots to #20. Clemson's loss is to blame, as even a potential win over Clemson is not longer the sudden trigger up the charts that it used to be. North Carolina can still beat Notre Dame and become semi-relevant again, so they didn't fall as far as Texas A&M, who needs Arkansas to continue to play well to soften that loss's blow.
The #25 Spot Is Jinxed
Oklahoma State didn't lose, so they moved up a bit. Florida didn't lose either and find themselves back in at #25 because TCU did lose, 42-34, to SMU. It's the 4th week out of four that our #25 team has lost and fallen out of the rankings.
Western Michigan was our first #25 team; they lost big (47-14) at Michigan and were replaced by fellow MAC hope Ball State, who was subsequently crushed 44-13 by Penn State and knocked out.
Florida was next in week 3. They actually played well against their favored opponent, losing to Alabama by just 2 points, but other developments nudged them out. And now TCU got upset so the Gators re-enter at #25. Can they buck the trend next week? Stay tuned.
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