In week three, two of our projected top four lost—both to non-Power Five squads that could cause future headaches for the Committee.
The College Football Playoff Committee has never shown much liking for non-Power Five schools and the bulk of the criticism they get is for their handling of these schools, like UCF in 2017 and 2018 and Cincinnati last year.
Cincinnati is at it again this year, beating Indiana 38-24. Meanwhile BYU knocked off Arizona State 27-17. This sent the Hoosiers and Sun Devils spinning down several notches each, with ASU's odds dropping by 41 percentage points. BYU is a true wild card now, projected to win out at 12-0 but with no conference championship game. They're not the lock at 12-0 that Notre Dame would be, but they're obviously ahead of a 12-1 projected Pac-12 winning Arizona State. But UCLA's loss devalued the Pac-12 quite a bit, so ASU fell to #7, BYU rose to #6.
The five teams ahead of them are #1 Alabama, slim victor over Florida; #2 Oklahoma, who struggled with Nebraska; as well as #5 Clemson, up two spots despite very nearly losing to Georgia Tech. We still have the Tigers winning the ACC, and conference championships are important to the Committee. Despite that fact, neither of our two new entries in the top four is projected to win their conference: #3 Iowa (11-1) and #4 Georgia (12-1). It's telling that both of their percentages are below 50%, so there is much uncertainty here. The Bulldogs would only have a loss to Alabama and have a win over Clemson, so that one makes since. Iowa is an enigma at 11-1, not even playing in the Big Ten title game, only losing to Wisconsin but having beaten Indiana. The Big Ten picture is odd right now with Ohio State in the running and Penn State too but neither in the title game. It seems that a Big Ten team is very likely to get in, but which one? Our projection essentially says "Iowa. For now."
College Football Playoff final standings projection: 9/21/2021 (post-week 3)
LW Rnk Team Rec %Odds %Chg chg Results: 1 1. Alabama 13-0 70.9 +1.3 --- W @Florida 31-29 2 2. Oklahoma 13-0 69.5 +1.3 --- W Nebraska 23-16 5 3. Iowa 11-1 45.0 +18.5 up 2 W Kent St 30-7 6 4. Georgia 12-1 39.6 +18.5 up 2 W S Carolina 40-13 7 5. Clemson 12-1 32.2 +14.4 up 2 W GA Tech 14-8 10 6. Brigham Young 12-0 26.8 +18.9 up 4 W Arizona St 27-17 3 7. Arizona St 12-1 23.4 -41.4 dn 4 L @BYU 27-17 4 8. Indiana 11-2 9.0 -24.9 dn 4 L Cincinnati 38-24 9 9. Wisconsin 11-2 8.6 +0.3 --- idle 12 10. Ohio State 10-2 8.2 +1.0 up 2 W Tulsa 41-20 13 11. Mississippi 10-2 7.8 +1.0 up 2 W Tulane 61-21 14 12. Texas A&M 10-2 7.4 +1.0 up 2 W New Mexico 34-0 17 13. Iowa St 10-3 7.0 +1.7 up 4 W @UNLV 48-3 15 14. North Carolina 10-2 6.6 +0.5 up 1 W Virginia 59-39 16 15. Notre Dame 10-2 6.2 +0.5 up 1 W Purdue 27-13 8 16. UCLA 10-2 5.8 -10.6 dn 8 L Fresno St 40-37 11 17. Miami FL 10-3 5.4 -2.1 dn 6 L Michigan St 38-17 18 18. Wake Forest 10-2 5.0 0.0 --- W Florida St 35-14 19 19. Boston College 10-2 4.6 0.0 --- W @Temple 28-3 20 20. Oregon 10-3 4.2 0.0 --- W Stony Brook 48-7 -- 21. Cincinnati 12-1 2.3 +2.3 new W @Indiana 38-24 21 22. Coastal Carolina 13-0 1.9 -0.6 dn 1 W @Buffalo 28-25 22 23. Penn State 9-3 0.8 -0.7 dn 1 W Auburn 28-20 23 24. Oklahoma St 9-3 0.8 -0.3 dn 1 W @Boise St 21-20 24 25. TCU 9-3 0.8 +0.1 dn 1 idle dropped out: #25 Florida
Ole Miss and Texas A&M are SEC also-rans at this point but rise to #11 and #12 and will get their shots later in the season. Iowa State won easily but what bumps them up 4 spots is the fact that their three projected losses are all to Playoff teams Iowa and Oklahoma. North Carolina and Notre Dame both move up a spot as UCLA and Miami tumble. The Bruins lost to a Fresno State team that wasn't projected to do well at all this year; the same for Miami and Michigan State. If the Bulldogs and Spartans have good seasons that will lessen the blow for each team but UCLA loses a lot of destiny control while Miami has to wonder if they're really very good this year.
Wake Forest and Boston College hold steady, waiting to see how the ACC shakes out and whether they'll be standing when it does. Both have kind schedules in general and both took care of business over the weekend. Oregon also won easily and holds at #20, and their path looks easier as they are now the only undefeated Pac-12 team, but right now things look bleak for the Pac-12 once again, likely to be left out of the Playoff again.
Jumping in at #21 is Cincinnati. The Bearcats don't play anything close to a Power Five schedule so don't expect much love from the Committee even at 12-1. But if they beat Notre Dame in a few weeks they'll be ranked higher than both the Irish and the Hoosiers. Remember last year when Louisiana beat Iowa State but was ranked well below them? That's how we see a 1-loss Cincy. They have to be undefeated to be a real threat to make the Playoff, and Notre Dame winning out (while losing to Cincy) is their best bet.
Coastal Carolina won't make the Playoff even at 13-0, and Cincy's arrival drops them a spot. Penn State and Oklahoma State both had good wins but also fall a spot, as does TCU. And last week's #25 Florida shouldn't have been penalized for threatening #1 Alabama but the world isn't fair. We still project them to be 9-3 but they get pushed to #26. They'll be back in if a team above them is upset or if they get a win they weren't supposed to and go to 10-2.
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