The first update to our College Football Playoff projections is...interesting to say the least. We have a new entry in the top four, as Clemson falls out to make room for...Indiana?
Indiana, who got beat by Iowa? Yes, Indiana. The Hoosiers were expected to lose that game, but that's the only one, and if they indeed beat Ohio State down the road and win the Big Ten, they have a very good chance of making the Playoff. Of course, we didn't expect a 34-6 drubbing which puts a lot of doubt as to whether Indiana is remotely good enough to pull that off, but one bad game doesn't change our forecast. Due to Clemson's unexpected loss the Hoosiers slide up and gain 12.4% to their previous odds.
Clemson's loss does put the Tigers in danger with their poor schedule. They fall to #6, right behind #5 Georgia who beat them. The Bulldogs have a great chance to get in (25.6%, up 16.2%), even if they lose as projected in the SEC final to Alabama. In fact, it's very close between Indiana, Georgia, and Clemson if those events occur. Indiana and Clemson would have conference titles, which Georgia would not, and the Committee is very high on conference titles. But the Bulldogs have a win over Clemson, and Indiana's 28-point Saturday loss would count heavily against them. Presumably if Georgia ran the table and lost a very tight game to Alabama they'd be in. Otherwise it would be Indiana, unless Clemson could match Alabama's drubbing of projected ACC title foe Miami.
Three of the top four remain from last week, though only #1 Alabama played like a title contender. #2 Oklahoma survived a crazy comeback scare at Tulane, and new #3 Arizona State was...adequate...in dispatching FCS Southern Utah. But no one remembers these close calls or poor opening day games by the end of the season. All three of these teams have >50% odds as all are projected to go undefeated, but Oklahoma raised some doubts and ASU is very unproven despite our lofty prediction.
College Football Playoff final standings projection: 9/7/2021 (post-week 1)
LW Rnk Team Rec chg %Odds %chg Results 1 1. Alabama 13-0 --- 69.5 +1.7 W =Miami 44-13 2 2. Oklahoma 13-0 --- 68.1 +1.7 W @Tulane 40-35 4 3. Arizona St 13-0 up 1 64.8 +7.0 W S Utah 41-14 5 4. Indiana 12-1 up 1 32.9 +12.4 L @Iowa 34-6 12 5. Georgia 12-1 up 7 25.6 +16.2 W =Clemson 10-3 3 6. Clemson 12-1 dn 3 20.2 -42.9 L =Georgia 10-3 7 7. Ohio State 11-1 --- 16.9 +5.0 W @Minn 45-31 8 8. UCLA 11-1 --- 15.6 +5.0 W LSU 38-27 11 9. Iowa St 11-2 up 2 15.2 +5.6 W N Iowa 16-10 13 10. Brigham Young 11-1 up 3 7.9 +1.4 W =Ariz 24-16 6 11. Wisconsin 11-2 dn 5 7.5 -7.6 L Penn St 16-10 14 12. Iowa 10-2 up 2 7.2 +1.0 W Indiana 34-6 9 13. Miami FL 11-2 dn 4 6.9 -3.4 L =Alabama 44-13 15 14. Mississippi 10-2 up 1 6.5 +0.6 W L'ville 43-24 16 15. Texas A&M 10-2 up 1 6.2 +0.6 W Kent St 41-10 10 16. North Carolina 10-2 dn 6 5.9 -4.1 L VA Tech 17-10 17 17. Wake Forest 10-2 --- 5.5 +0.3 W Old Dom 41-10 18 18. Boston College 10-2 --- 5.2 +0.2 W Colgate 51-0 19 19. Coastal Carolina 13-0 --- 3.4 0.0 W Citadel 52-14 20 20. Notre Dame 9-3 --- 2.4 -0.1 W @FSU 41-38 OT 21 21. Oklahoma St 9-3 --- 2.1 -0.1 W Mizz St 23-16 22 22. TCU 9-3 --- 1.7 -0.1 W Duquesne 45-3 23 23. Florida 9-3 --- 1.4 -0.2 W Fla Atl 35-14 24 24. Oregon 9-4 --- 1.1 -0.2 W Fresno St 31-24 -- 25. Ball St 11-1 new 0.4 +0.4 W West IL 31-21 dropped out: #25 Western Michigan
Ohio State and UCLA stayed at #7 and #8 but each added 5% to their odds as Clemson disgorged 43 percentage points, from 63.1% to 20.2%. The Buckeyes actually did better than we projected, and UCLA was a bit weaker, opposite the conventional wisdom. Of course we ranked OSU only #10 pre-season and UCLA #20 when they weren't in the AP top 25 (they entered at #16 after beating LSU).
#9 Iowa State moved up two spots, and #10 BYU three despite poor games by both teams. The Cyclones were very nearly upset by in-state FCS rival Northern Iowa while BYU was tested by lowly Arizona. But a win is a win and that's all Iowa State needs to keep their dream season alive. And BYU gets a Power Five win which is very important to them. Iowa also moves up but they deserve their move after beating Indiana soundly. But even Iowa moved up due to other losses: #6 Wisconsin falling to #11, #9 Miami falling to #13, and #10 North Carolina falling to #16.
The Badgers lost to Penn State at home, Miami to Alabama on a neutral field, and UNC to Virginia Tech on the road. Wisconsin and UNC were supposed to win so the losses hurt their odds but their situations are not unrecoverable given enough chaos. Miami was supposed to lose, but losing 44-13 hurts them with the Committee. Luckily it's the first game and they can still recover. The problem is that both North Carolina and Clemson were upset this weekend, devaluing them; UNC was supposed to be Miami's signature win of the year, and Clemson is a possible ACC title game foe. With Clemson no longer undefeated, Miami doesn't "count" as a 1-loss team anymore (conference title game losses to undefeated teams are nominally discounted), so now they're lumped in with the regular two-time losers.
Mississippi and Texas A&M both moved up one spot due to UNC's loss, while Wake Forest and Boston College held steady below the Tar Heels (Wake is expected to lose to UNC, BC to Wake). The projected 9-3 teams held steady though they all lose a tiny bit of their percentage as all projected 3-loss teams will do as the season progresses (we miscalculated Notre Dame's value previously). #24 Oregon survived a scare but it doesn't matter—a win's a win when it's all said and done.
Western Michigan lost—and lost bad—to Michigan, dumping them out of the projected top 25 replaced by fellow MAC team Ball State. The Cardinals were yet another unimpressive first week team, barely beating FCS Western Illinois and putting their 11-1 projection in major doubt.
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