SportsRatings: College Football

2021 Week 5 Preview: Cincy, Ole Miss, Boston College take their shot

Week Five

You know it's a good one because it's odd-numbered. Week 1 and 3 were full of great matchups while 2 and 4 were lame. But this one might be the best so far with 5 intra-top 25 games in our projected College Football Playoff list, and several other teams taking on 4-0 squads looking to make their mark. Here's what's going on:

• #5 Notre Dame (4-0) vs. #16 Cincinnati (3-0): This is the big one for a lot of reasons, mainly because it's Cincy's last hurdle to being undefeated. Notre Dame just got a boost from upsetting Wisconsin and they'd give that all back if they lose to the Bearcats. Cincinnati would be forecast at 13-0 with a win, though they would still need Notre Dame to finish with 1-loss to really have a great chance at the Playoff. Beating an eventual 9-3 Irish team wouldn't be quite as impressive.
• #7 Arizona State (3-1) at #12 UCLA (3-1): The Sun Devil loss to BYU and UCLA loss to Fresno took a bit of shine off this one. It once was a Playoff eliminator, but it's still considered the Pac-12 championship game by our projection. The oddsmakers favor UCLA, and that would shake things up a bit, hurting BYU's chances almost as much as ASU's.
• #1 Alabama (4-0) vs. #11 Mississippi (3-0): The #1 team is involved but it's hard to put this one higher than 3rd most interesting game because the Tide are a 2-touchdown favorite. Thought Ole Miss has a great offense and defense is Bama's weak spot this year, the Tide are at home and they often punish teams when stuff happens like people start to say Georgia is a better team than they are. An upset here would really screw up the SEC title picture as Ole Miss would be favored to get in the title game vs. Georgia, probably giving them a loss and keeping Alabama ahead of them in the final rankings ironically—unless they win by blowout, a very unlikely scenario.
• #10 Clemson (2-2) vs. #14 Boston College (4-0): Boston College comes in with a much better record, though Clemson is still our favorite to win the ACC in the end. The Tigers need this one to stay at all relevant, but for Boston College it's a huge opportunity. Win this and they are a 1-loss team and probably make the ACC title game...things start to get interesting. But are they really any good? We still don't know. We do know that Clemson is vulnerable since they apparently have no offense.
• #8 Indiana (2-2) at #18 Penn State (4-0): This one should help clarify the Big Ten picture for our projection, which stubbornly holds out Indiana as a contender. The Lions are a 12 1/2 point favorite and would close the door on the Hoosiers if it isn't already. Now just watch Indiana come alive and keep things convoluted. We look at our projection of Indiana right now as being an embodiment of "chaos" at work. Upsets do happen.

2021 College Football Playoff Committee Projected Final Standings pre-week 5

Rnk  Team               Rec   %Odds  This weekend:
 1.  Alabama            13-0   72.9  #11 Mississippi
 2.  Oklahoma           13-0   71.5  @ Kansas State
 3.  Iowa               11-1   46.1  @ Maryland
 4.  Georgia            12-1   40.7  Arkansas
 5.  Notre Dame         11-1   33.3  #16 Cincinnati
 6.  Brigham Young      12-0   27.8  @ Utah State
 7.  Arizona St         12-1   24.4  @ #12 UCLA
 8.  Indiana            11-2    9.5  @ #18 Penn State
 9.  Ohio State         10-2    9.1  @ Rutgers
10.  Clemson            11-2    8.6  #14 Boston College
11.  Mississippi        10-2    8.2  @ #1 Alabama 
12.  UCLA               10-2    7.8  #7 Arizona State
13.  Wake Forest        10-2    7.3  Louisville
14.  Boston College     10-2    6.9  @ #10 Clemson
15.  Oregon             10-3    6.5  @ Stanford
16.  Cincinnati         12-1    4.3  @ #5 Notre Dame 
17.  Coastal Carolina   13-0    3.9  Louisiana-Monroe
18.  Penn State          9-3    2.6  #8 Indiana
19.  Wisconsin          10-3    2.2  Michigan
20.  Miami FL           10-3    1.7  Virginia
21.  Iowa St             9-4    1.3  Kansas
22.  Oklahoma St         9-3    0.9  Baylor
23.  North Carolina      9-3    0.9  Duke
24.  Texas A&M           9-3    0.9  Mississippi St
25.  Florida             9-3    0.9  @ Kentucky

And if those five games aren't enough to whet your appetite, we also have:

• #3 Iowa (4-0) at Maryland (4-0)
• #4 Georgia (4-0) vs. Arkansas (4-0)
• #19 Wisconsin (2-2) vs. Michigan (4-0)
• #22 Oklahoma State (4-0) vs. Baylor (4-0)
• #25 Florida (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0)

The downside for the ranked teams is obvious, as our projection favors the ranked team in each case. But which of these undefeated teams will make an appearance with a win? Not Maryland. We picked them to be 4-0 at this point—and to finish 5-7. It will take more than an upset of Iowa for them to get on our radar. Nor Michigan. Though the Wolverines are 2 wins ahead already of where we thought they'd be, beating Wisconsin isn't going to carry enough weight just yet.

Arkansas has a chance. If they can beat Georgia they'll be projected at 8-4, which might be near the bottom of our rankings. They're already a game ahead after upsetting Texas A&M last week. Baylor would also be at 8-4 if they beat Oklahoma State, following the Iowa State upset last week. As would Kentucky, though we had them 4-0 at this point so they haven't deviated from the 7-5 we picked for them yet.

Interestingly the oddsmakers favor all of our ranked teams over the 4-0 teams, so the undefeated upstarts—even Michigan—have something to prove to Vegas as well as to our pre-season prognostications.

Everyone Else

We don't know what to expect from #2 Oklahoma this week at Kansas State, and #6 BYU looked bad last week too. That probably means both have blowout wins this time around. Will #9 Ohio State get the scare this week instead against a tough 3-1 Rutgers?

Wake Forest hosts Louisville and is just a 7 point favorite, which once again feels a bit insulting. We have the Deacs by 14 in either of our power ratings (early Strength or Bayesian updates). #15 Oregon travels to unpredictable Stanford, while #17 Coastal Carolina hosts ULM who amazingly just upset Troy.

Miami is playing Virginia Thursday night, while Iowa State should have a breather vs. Kansas and UNC the same vs. Duke. Texas A&M is a touchdown favorite vs. Mississippi State.

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection post-week 4: Notre Dame is a contender; Clemson tumbles

Just Don't Lose.

Sounds like a poor man's Nike slogan, but it should be the mantra for teams vying to make the College Football Playoff. As long as you don't lose, you're helping your chances. Because there will always be a slew of other teams that do lose, and that will help your own odds.

Many of the teams in our projection won ugly, but they won, and that's (almost) all that matters. There were a handful that won with style, but those were usually mitigated by sorry competition anyway. Case in point: #1 Alabama, who beat Southern Miss 63-14, only a few points shy of our Bayesian power rating's 51-point spread. And #4 Georgia, who has taken pole position in our early Strength Power Rating, beat Vanderbilt 62-0 and moved up to #2 in our Bayesian rankings. The Bulldogs have also taken over from Alabama at #1 in ESPN's FPI and SP+ rankings. 

But our other two projected Playoff teams didn't fare as well. #3 Iowa was losing 14-7 at the half to Colorado State, and #2 Oklahoma needed a last-second field goal to avoid overtime vs. West Virginia—at home. That's dropped the Sooners and Hawkeyes from many people's 4-team list, but we're looking at the long game and until they actually lose they're not going anywhere.

The big winner of the weekend was of course Notre Dame, who pulled away from Wisconsin in the 4th quarter to finish with a gaudy 41-13 win. This puts the Irish at 11-1 projected and right in the thick of things. Given the close calls in the top teams, the Irish could move into the 4-team field any week, but they have to beat Cincinnati first. And only going undefeated would secure them a spot, as other undefeated and 1-loss teams could pass them and keep a 1-loss Notre Dame outside looking in.

The Irish got an assist from North Carolina State who booted Clemson in double overtime. The Tigers fall from #5 to #10, disgorging over 23 percentage points that Notre Dame gobbled up. With 2 losses, the Tigers are hard-pressed to have a Playoff chance even if they win the ACC now. They're in the bad position of having to hope for chaos.

2021 SportsRatings projected Final College Playoff Committee standings post-week 4 (9/27/2021)

LW   Rnk  Team               Rec   %Odds   %Chg   Chg    Results:
 1    1.  Alabama            13-0   72.9   +2.0   ---    W Southern Miss 63-14
 2    2.  Oklahoma           13-0   71.5   +1.9   ---    W West Virginia 16-13
 3    3.  Iowa               11-1   46.1   +1.1   ---    W Colorado St 24-14
 4    4.  Georgia            12-1   40.7   +1.1   ---    W Vanderbilt 62-0
15    5.  Notre Dame         11-1   33.3  +27.0   up 10  W =Wisconsin 41-13 
 6    6.  Brigham Young      12-0   27.8   +1.0   ---    W South Florida 35-27
 7    7.  Arizona St         12-1   24.4   +1.0   ---    W Colorado 35-13
 8    8.  Indiana            11-2    9.5   +0.5   ---    W @Western KY 33-31
10    9.  Ohio State         10-2    9.1   +0.9   up 1   W Akron 59-7
 5   10.  Clemson            11-2    8.6  -23.6   dn 5   L @NC State 27-21 2OT
11   11.  Mississippi        10-2    8.2   +0.4   ---      idle
16   12.  UCLA               10-2    7.8   +2.0   up 4   W @Stanford 35-24
18   13.  Wake Forest        10-2    7.3   +2.3   up 5   W @Virginia 37-17
19   14.  Boston College     10-2    6.9   +2.3   up 5   W Missouri 41-34 OT
20   15.  Oregon             10-3    6.5   +2.2   up 5   W Arizona 41-19
21   16.  Cincinnati         12-1    4.3   +2.0   up 5     idle
22   17.  Coastal Carolina   13-0    3.9   +2.0   up 5   W UMass 53-3
23   18.  Penn State          9-3    2.6   +1.8   up 5   W Villanova 38-17
 9   19.  Wisconsin          10-3    2.2   -6.4   dn 10  L =Notre Dame 41-13
17   20.  Miami FL           10-3    1.7   -3.7   dn 3   W Central Conn 66-0
13   21.  Iowa St             9-4    1.3   -5.7   dn 8   L @Baylor 31-29
24   22.  Oklahoma St         9-3    0.9   +0.1   up 2   W Kansas St 31-20
14   23.  North Carolina      9-3    0.9   -5.7   dn 9   L @Georgia Tech 45-22
12   24.  Texas A&M           9-3    0.9   -6.5   dn 12  L =Arkansas 20-10
--   25.  Florida             9-3    0.9   +0.8   new    W Tennessee 38-14

Dropped out: #25 TCU

 

The rest of the top ten did what it had to do: they didn't lose. Again, sometimes it was ugly, like BYU beating USF by 8 to hold at #6, or Indiana holding at #8 by escaping Western Kentucky with a 2 point win. At this point, Indiana is clearly a spoiler more than anything else, but our projection stubbornly holds onto hope the Hoosiers figure it out. Arizona State dispatched Colorado and Ohio State gained a spot by drubbing Akron 59-7, but most importantly, they didn't lose.

Neither did #11 Mississippi, who didn't play. Smart. The Rebels are followed by a raft of teams that didn't lose their games and took advantage of the fact that so many others did lose.

Wake, BC Get the Job Done, Now Represent ACC

Last week we noted that Wake Forest and Boston College were underdogs in games the projection was counting on them to win. We also noted that our pre-season rankings didn't think very much of either team, just that their schedules were weak. But both performed well—by not losing.

Wake Forest was actually impressive—again—and is starting to get noticed, making the AP Top 25 for the first time this season. They crushed Virginia on the road as a 4-point underdog. Boston College did just enough to beat Missouri in overtime, but that bucked the oddsmakers too. With Clemson's downfall and Miami and North Carolina facing difficulties, these teams might be the best hope for the conference. Both move up five spots.

UCLA jumps four spots after tackling Stanford on the road. Fellow Pac-12 member Oregon finally put weakling Arizona away and jumps 5 spots as well to #15. Cincinnati didn't lose, since they didn't play, but they move up the same 5 spots as big winners Coastal Carolina and Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are followed by former Big Ten hope Wisconsin, now 1-2 and down 10 spots to #19. Iowa State faltered against 4-0 Baylor and drops to #21; North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech and fell 9 spots to #23; and finally Texas A&M got beat by 4-0 Arkansas and dropped a full dozen spots to #24. These unexpectedly undefeated teams (Baylor, Arkansas) are not yet considered to have any long-term potential by our projection; they'll have to earn it over time!

Miami proved the exception to the slogan. They didn't lose, yet they fell three spots to #20. Clemson's loss is to blame, as even a potential win over Clemson is not longer the sudden trigger up the charts that it used to be. North Carolina can still beat Notre Dame and become semi-relevant again, so they didn't fall as far as Texas A&M, who needs Arkansas to continue to play well to soften that loss's blow.

The #25 Spot Is Jinxed

Oklahoma State didn't lose, so they moved up a bit. Florida didn't lose either and find themselves back in at #25 because TCU did lose, 42-34, to SMU. It's the 4th week out of four that our #25 team has lost and fallen out of the rankings. 

Western Michigan was our first #25 team; they lost big (47-14) at Michigan and were replaced by fellow MAC hope Ball State, who was subsequently crushed 44-13 by Penn State and knocked out. 

Florida was next in week 3. They actually played well against their favored opponent, losing to Alabama by just 2 points, but other developments nudged them out. And now TCU got upset so the Gators re-enter at #25. Can they buck the trend next week? Stay tuned.

2021 Week 4 Preview: Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin is only game in town

So far the college football season is alternating weekends of high profile showdowns and likely snoozefests.

Week one had Clemson vs. Georgia; week two had what seemed like the entire FBS vs. the FCS.

Week three had tough tests for all the top teams; week four has...Southern Miss at Alabama?

We don't think #1 Alabama (a 45 point favorite) will be tested like they were last weekend at Florida.  #2 Oklahoma is a 17 point favorite, #3 Iowa a 23 point favorite, and #4 Georgia a 5 touchdown favorite. In fact of our top 7 teams it's surprisingly #5 Clemson that is set to have the toughest test, at North Carolina State.

But there is one marquee game this weekend: #9 Wisconsin vs. #15 Notre Dame. The game is in Chicago and the Badgers are almost a touchdown favorite; we have them by 10 points but they've only played 2 games so it's hard to know what to expect from them. If Notre Dame gets the upset, suddenly the Irish are a Playoff threat with only a few hurdles on their way to a 12-0 season that would almost certainly put them in the top four. The Badgers have already lost—to Penn State—and realistically need to win out and win the Big Ten to get in the Playoff. A 1-loss Notre Dame is likely outside looking in but you never know.

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection: week four preview

Rnk Team                 Rec   %Odds  This weekend:
 1. Alabama              13-0   70.9  Southern Miss	
 2. Oklahoma             13-0   69.5  West Virginia 
 3. Iowa                 11-1   45.0  Colorado St 	
 4. Georgia              12-1   39.6  @ Vanderbilt 	
 5. Clemson              12-1   32.2  @ NC State 	
 6. Brigham Young        12-0   26.8  USF 		
 7. Arizona St           12-1   23.4  Colorado 	
 8. Indiana              11-2    9.0  @ W Kentucky 	
 9. Wisconsin            11-2    8.6  vs. #15 Notre Dame 	
10. Ohio State           10-2    8.2  Akron 	
11. Mississippi          10-2    7.8   idle
12. Texas A&M            10-2    7.4  vs. Arkansas 	
13. Iowa St              10-3    7.0  @ Baylor 	
14. North Carolina       10-2    6.6  @ GA Tech 	
15. Notre Dame           10-2    6.2  vs. #9 Wisconsin 	
16. UCLA                 10-2    5.8  @ Stanford 	
17. Miami FL             10-3    5.4  Central Conn 	
18. Wake Forest          10-2    5.0  @ Virginia 	
19. Boston College       10-2    4.6  Missouri 	
20. Oregon               10-3    4.2  Arizona 	
21. Cincinnati           12-1    2.3   idle
22. Coastal Carolina     13-0    1.9  UMass 	
23. Penn State            9-3    0.8  Villanova 	
24. Oklahoma St           9-3    0.8  Kansas St 	
25. TCU                   9-3    0.8  SMU 

Not much excitement beyond that. #12 Texas A&M plays Arkansas in Arlington and is a slim 5-point favorite. #13 Iowa State is a touchdown favorite vs. undefeated Baylor. And #16 UCLA is likewise favored by less than a score vs. Stanford. Any of those upsets would sink the already meager Playoff hopes of the favorites. And speaking of meager Playoff hopes....

Last Stand for Wake Forest, Boston College?

Wake Forest and Boston College are currently #18 and #19 in our projection, and not because our power ratings think they're all that good. Most of their ranking comes from having very easy schedules and a much higher-than-normal likelihood of having very few losses. So far they've done well enough—they haven't lost. But neither has really impressed that much. Wake Forest travels to Virginia where they are a 4 point underdog, and our Bayesian power rating concurs, suggesting Virginia will win by a point. Boston College is 1 1/2 point underdog by Vegas and a half-point underdog in our books.

I wouldn't count them out yet though. People have been underestimating Wake Forest a lot already this year. They pounded FSU 35-14 last week after being a pretty slim favorite. Boston College has played a very weak schedule so far. They won handily every game but let UMass score 28, and only scored 28 themselves vs. Temple. Missouri is a big step up but the Eagles are at home.

If they both lose, their projected records will fall to 9-3 and with their weak schedules, they'll probably be considered the weakest of the 3-loss teams and fall out of consideration (or very nearly so). So this could be the last time you see Wake and/or BC on our list.

Cincinnati waiting...

Cincinnati just joined our list last week and this week they're idle. Next up? Notre Dame. The Bearcats really need Notre Dame to beat Wisconsin this week. A 1-loss Notre Dame—with their sole loss being to Cincinnati—is probably the only recipe for a Bearcat trip to the Playoff.

2021 Week 3 Bayesian Power Rating

Recently we posted our first Strength power rating, and as expected after just 3 weeks (and for most teams, only two FBS opponents), there were a lot of odd results.

Our Bayesian updates to our pre-season ratings are a lot more reliable at this point—even though it's partly based on last year's weird season—but we will compare them with the Strength power rating to see where they agree.

First, the big upward movers:

• Wyoming, up 20 to #36 for beating Ball State 45-12
• USC, up 19 to #39 after beating Washington State 45-14
• Michigan State, up 16 to #56 after winning at Miami 38-17
• Washington, up 13 to #57 after beating Arkansas State 52-3
• Georgia Tech, up 13 to #78 after almost upsetting Clemson, losing 14-8

Now let's compare lists. #1 is still Alabama; they are only #14 in the early Strength ranking. Iowa has made it all the way to #2 below, and is #10 in Strength. Oklahoma slips to #3 and is #18 in Strength. Georgia is almost a match: #4 in Bayesian and #2 in Strength!

So far what we can see going on is that our initial ranking has had an effect. The top four teams are objectively playing well—all top 20—but our prior knowledge of these teams has put them closer to where they "should" be. In other words, Strength can tell these teams are pretty good, but can't conclude that they are top level.

And there are outliers. #5 below is Wisconsin, and they are just #53 in Strength. Partly that's because they've played just two games, and also, maybe we overrated Wisconsin in our pre-season rankings. Penn State beat Wisconsin but is behind them at #6—mostly because they started at #22 and have been working their way up. They're #28 in Strength, not very good but well above Wisconsin there.

#7 Iowa State is at #24, #8 Clemson is #20, #9 Cincinnati is #16, and #10 Mississippi is #3 in Strength. So there is some correspondence, but generally 10-20 places difference. The reality probably lies somewhere in between the two rankings.

The top teams in Strength are Michigan, Georgia, Mississippi, Washington, and North Carolina. Michigan has made it up to #14 in our Bayesian ranking, so the Wolverines look legit though #1 might be quite a stretch. #2 Georgia is #4 in Bayesian and #2 in the AP poll and many other power ratings like ESPN's FPI, so that one looks accurate for both ratings. Mississippi is #10 below, and #13 in the AP so they could be a legit top ten team.

Washington's #4 rating in Strength stems from their weird season so far, which includes a huge loss to Michigan and a 49 point win over Arkansas State. It's a great example of how a small sample can make things go awry. The power rating basically "decided" that Michigan is so great that Washington's loss to them doesn't hurt the Huskies. They did move up a lot in our Bayesian rating but they're only #57. It's probably very safe to say Washington is somewhere between #4 and #57. Not very helpful, but it's hard to be accurate this early for a team with such an erratic start.

North Carolina ranks 5th in Strength and #11 below, so that's a pretty tight range. They already lost to Virginia Tech but both power ratings are saying that might have been a fluke. And since the Hokies rank #6 in Strength, it doesn't need to be much of a fluke there, but they're only #47 below, so the jury is definitely out.

Each passing week should bring the two systems closer together, until we abandon the Bayesian system altogether in about a month.

2021 Bayesian power rating update for week 3

W2	W3	Team	W3 Rating
1	1	Alabama	28.88
3	2	Iowa	27.68
2	3	Oklahoma	25.66
4	4	Georgia	24.13
6	5	Wisconsin	23.30
7	6	Penn State	20.96
9	7	Iowa St	20.86
5	8	Clemson	20.66
16	9	Cincinnati	19.15
19	10	Mississippi	18.61
14	11	North Carolina	18.26
12	12	Ohio State	18.06
10	13	Texas A&M	18.03
20	14	Michigan	17.76
8	15	Arizona St	17.51
17	16	Auburn	16.86
23	17	Minnesota	15.34
26	18	Texas	15.31
18	19	Indiana	13.76
15	20	UCLA	13.56
13	21	Miami FL	12.94
22	22	Notre Dame	12.82
21	23	Arkansas	12.81
11	24	Toledo	12.47
32	25	Brigham Young	11.62
24	26	Coastal Carolina	11.58
37	27	Florida	10.89
30	28	Western Michigan	10.59
38	29	Nebraska	10.40
27	30	Rutgers	10.39
29	31	Kent St	10.31
39	32	Louisiana-Lafayette	10.29
31	33	TCU	10.13
46	34	LSU	9.40
35	35	Oklahoma St	9.28
56	36	Wyoming	8.78
34	37	Maryland	8.30
25	38	Central Michigan	7.75
58	39	Southern Cal	7.33
42	40	Wake Forest	6.77
28	41	Ball St	6.29
49	42	Baylor	6.13
48	43	North Carolina St	5.89
44	44	Boise St	5.72
50	45	West Virginia	5.43
36	46	Miami OH	5.42
45	47	Virginia Tech	5.27
33	48	Eastern Michigan	5.07
40	49	Oregon	5.06
41	50	Appalachian St	4.91
47	51	Utah	4.81
62	52	California	4.79
52	53	Buffalo	4.79
43	54	Liberty	4.65
53	55	Pittsburgh	4.56
72	56	Michigan St	4.33
70	57	Washington	4.25
51	58	Mississippi St	4.11
55	59	Virginia	3.99
61	60	Purdue	3.33
57	61	Central Florida	2.84
63	62	San José St	1.91
54	63	Nevada	1.48
65	64	Missouri	1.27
59	65	Tulane	0.88
77	66	Kansas St	0.69
60	67	Northwestern	0.54
66	68	Troy	0.48
73	69	Oregon St	-0.89
67	70	Houston	-0.92
76	71	Louisville	-1.02
64	72	Colorado	-1.07
81	73	Tennessee	-1.28
83	74	Alabama-Birmingham	-1.29
75	75	Memphis	-1.36
71	76	Marshall	-1.68
74	77	Texas-San Antonio	-1.94
91	78	Georgia Tech	-2.07
68	79	Kentucky	-2.12
88	80	Texas Tech	-2.49
79	81	Boston College	-2.69
94	82	Fresno St	-2.82
89	83	East Carolina	-2.89
84	84	Tulsa	-3.15
86	85	Illinois	-3.17
85	86	San Diego St	-3.18
90	87	Stanford	-3.86
69	88	Northern Illinois	-4.26
80	89	SMU	-4.28
82	90	Army	-5.26
78	91	Syracuse	-5.39
93	92	Hawai`i	-5.74
92	93	Florida Atlantic	-6.34
103	94	Colorado St	-6.87
87	95	Washington St	-7.41
97	96	Florida St	-8.91
95	97	Ohio U.	-9.36
96	98	Georgia St	-9.83
100	99	South Carolina	-10.13
98	100	Air Force	-11.76
101	101	Middle Tennessee St	-12.01
104	102	South Alabama	-12.24
107	103	Utah St	-14.45
111	104	Duke	-15.44
99	105	Arkansas St	-15.59
108	106	Louisiana Tech	-15.79
102	107	Rice	-16.20
105	108	UNLV	-17.13
109	109	Vanderbilt	-18.40
106	110	Texas St-San Marcos	-18.41
113	111	Southern Miss	-18.58
112	112	Georgia Southern	-18.74
115	113	New Mexico	-18.85
118	114	South Florida	-19.54
116	115	Western Kentucky	-20.72
110	116	Arizona	-21.04
114	117	Florida Int'l	-21.26
117	118	North Texas	-24.04
119	119	UNC-Charlotte	-25.84
121	120	Bowling Green	-26.46
120	121	Akron	-28.05
123	122	Navy	-28.81
122	123	Temple	-28.82
124	124	Kansas	-29.79
126	125	Old Dominion	-30.23
125	126	UTEP	-30.83
127	127	Louisiana-Monroe	-33.83
128	128	Massachusetts	-38.61
130	129	Connecticut	-42.79
129	130	New Mexico St	-42.80

 

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection post-week 3: BYU, Cincinnati will cause Committee headaches

In week three, two of our projected top four lost—both to non-Power Five squads that could cause future headaches for the Committee.

The College Football Playoff Committee has never shown much liking for non-Power Five schools and the bulk of the criticism they get is for their handling of these schools, like UCF in 2017 and 2018 and Cincinnati last year.

Cincinnati is at it again this year, beating Indiana 38-24. Meanwhile BYU knocked off Arizona State 27-17. This sent the Hoosiers and Sun Devils spinning down several notches each, with ASU's odds dropping by 41 percentage points. BYU is a true wild card now, projected to win out at 12-0 but with no conference championship game. They're not the lock at 12-0 that Notre Dame would be, but they're obviously ahead of a 12-1 projected Pac-12 winning Arizona State. But UCLA's loss devalued the Pac-12 quite a bit, so ASU fell to #7, BYU rose to #6.

The five teams ahead of them are #1 Alabama, slim victor over Florida; #2 Oklahoma, who struggled with Nebraska; as well as #5 Clemson, up two spots despite very nearly losing to Georgia Tech. We still have the Tigers winning the ACC, and conference championships are important to the Committee. Despite that fact, neither of our two new entries in the top four is projected to win their conference: #3 Iowa (11-1) and #4 Georgia (12-1). It's telling that both of their percentages are below 50%, so there is much uncertainty here. The Bulldogs would only have a loss to Alabama and have a win over Clemson, so that one makes since. Iowa is an enigma at 11-1, not even playing in the Big Ten title game, only losing to Wisconsin but having beaten Indiana. The Big Ten picture is odd right now with Ohio State in the running and Penn State too but neither in the title game. It seems that a Big Ten team is very likely to get in, but which one? Our projection essentially says "Iowa. For now."

College Football Playoff final standings projection: 9/21/2021 (post-week 3)

LW  Rnk Team                 Rec  %Odds   %Chg  chg   Results:
 1   1. Alabama              13-0  70.9   +1.3  ---   W @Florida 31-29
 2   2. Oklahoma             13-0  69.5   +1.3  ---   W Nebraska 23-16
 5   3. Iowa                 11-1  45.0  +18.5  up 2  W Kent St 30-7
 6   4. Georgia              12-1  39.6  +18.5  up 2  W S Carolina 40-13
 7   5. Clemson              12-1  32.2  +14.4  up 2  W GA Tech 14-8
10   6. Brigham Young        12-0  26.8  +18.9  up 4  W Arizona St 27-17
 3   7. Arizona St           12-1  23.4  -41.4  dn 4  L @BYU 27-17
 4   8. Indiana              11-2   9.0  -24.9  dn 4  L Cincinnati 38-24
 9   9. Wisconsin            11-2   8.6   +0.3  ---     idle
12  10. Ohio State           10-2   8.2   +1.0  up 2  W Tulsa 41-20
13  11. Mississippi          10-2   7.8   +1.0  up 2  W Tulane 61-21
14  12. Texas A&M            10-2   7.4   +1.0  up 2  W New Mexico 34-0
17  13. Iowa St              10-3   7.0   +1.7  up 4  W @UNLV 48-3
15  14. North Carolina       10-2   6.6   +0.5  up 1  W Virginia 59-39
16  15. Notre Dame           10-2   6.2   +0.5  up 1  W Purdue 27-13
 8  16. UCLA                 10-2   5.8  -10.6  dn 8  L Fresno St 40-37
11  17. Miami FL             10-3   5.4   -2.1  dn 6  L Michigan St 38-17
18  18. Wake Forest          10-2   5.0    0.0  ---   W Florida St 35-14
19  19. Boston College       10-2   4.6    0.0  ---   W @Temple 28-3
20  20. Oregon               10-3   4.2    0.0  ---   W Stony Brook 48-7
--  21. Cincinnati           12-1   2.3   +2.3  new   W @Indiana 38-24
21  22. Coastal Carolina     13-0   1.9   -0.6  dn 1  W @Buffalo 28-25
22  23. Penn State            9-3   0.8   -0.7  dn 1  W Auburn 28-20
23  24. Oklahoma St           9-3   0.8   -0.3  dn 1  W @Boise St 21-20
24  25. TCU                   9-3   0.8   +0.1  dn 1    idle

dropped out: #25 Florida

Ole Miss and Texas A&M are SEC also-rans at this point but rise to #11 and #12 and will get their shots later in the season. Iowa State won easily but what bumps them up 4 spots is the fact that their three projected losses are all to Playoff teams Iowa and Oklahoma. North Carolina and Notre Dame both move up a spot as UCLA and Miami tumble. The Bruins lost to a Fresno State team that wasn't projected to do well at all this year; the same for Miami and Michigan State. If the Bulldogs and Spartans have good seasons that will lessen the blow for each team but UCLA loses a lot of destiny control while Miami has to wonder if they're really very good this year.

Wake Forest and Boston College hold steady, waiting to see how the ACC shakes out and whether they'll be standing when it does. Both have kind schedules in general and both took care of business over the weekend. Oregon also won easily and holds at #20, and their path looks easier as they are now the only undefeated Pac-12 team, but right now things look bleak for the Pac-12 once again, likely to be left out of the Playoff again.

Jumping in at #21 is Cincinnati. The Bearcats don't play anything close to a Power Five schedule so don't expect much love from the Committee even at 12-1. But if they beat Notre Dame in a few weeks they'll be ranked higher than both the Irish and the Hoosiers. Remember last year when Louisiana beat Iowa State but was ranked well below them? That's how we see a 1-loss Cincy. They have to be undefeated to be a real threat to make the Playoff, and Notre Dame winning out (while losing to Cincy) is their best bet.

Coastal Carolina won't make the Playoff even at 13-0, and Cincy's arrival drops them a spot. Penn State and Oklahoma State both had good wins but also fall a spot, as does TCU. And last week's #25 Florida shouldn't have been penalized for threatening #1 Alabama but the world isn't fair. We still project them to be 9-3 but they get pushed to #26. They'll be back in if a team above them is upset or if they get a win they weren't supposed to and go to 10-2.

Early no-priors Power Rating notes (for results thru week 3)

A few years ago when the NCAA college basketball NET ratings debuted, there was a firestorm of rage. The ratings were horrible, said people on Twitter, since they didn't at all match the AP top 25 at the time, nor power ratings like Sagarin or Ken Pomeroy. They have to throw them away and start all over! Said Twitter basketball.

The thing the Twitterverse didn't understand is that the NET ratings used no priors from the previous season, just the early results of that very season. And every power rating, no matter how good, looks goofy early on. That's just how it works. When you don't discriminate by your biases of how good a team should be, it's hard—or impossible—to tell how good the teams are with only a few weeks of results. It just is. Sagarin and Pomeroy for years have used last season's data and slowly "eased" it out of the formula so their early rankings aren't goofy. People who make power ratings know this. Twitter did not (surprising both Nate Silver and Jerry Palm were two of the more clueless critics).

I'm not saying NET is a great thing, but any power rating without priors looks ridiculous early on. Which brings us to our Strength power rating result after three weeks. Two issues here are: there have only been 3 weeks of games; and, there are a lot of FBS vs. FCS games that reveal very little about either team. The latter does reveal the pecking order, with FBS teams on top, but the game itself isn't great data at this stage and leaves only 2 FBS vs. FBS games for most teams and that doesn't make for consistent results.

Yet here we go: our All-Division ratings top 10 after three weeks of play.

Michigan is our surprise, or no-so-surprise #1. They've probably moved up the most in our Bayesian power rating (the one we use until the Strength power rating is ready, usually at about 6-7 weeks). They've definitely exceeded our expectations more than any team; we started them at #43 in our pre-season projections. So far they've crushed Western Michigan 47-14, Washington 31-10, and Northern Illinois 63-10. When it's too early to tell how good the competition is, nothing beats three blowouts.

Georgia is #2, almost 13 points behind the Wolverines. The Bulldogs beat Clemson which is great as long as you know that Clemson is a good team (the power rating sort of does, putting the Tigers #20, 4th best in the ACC). They also beat UAB 56-7 and South Carolina 40-13, so they have some blowouts of their own.

Mississippi is #3 after beating Louisville 43-24, Austin Peay 54-17, and Tulane 61-21. The latter is particularly helpful as Tulane almost beat Oklahoma, who ranks #18—in essence, that last result makes Ole Miss 35 points better than the Sooners who only won by 5 points.

Washington (1-2) is next at #4. Huh? Blame Michigan, whose rating is so hight that even Washington's 31-10 loss doesn't look bad. Or blame Washington's 52-3 blowout of Arkansas State for making the Huskies look good despite a 13-7 loss to Montana. Or blame Montana for only having 2 games so far, the other a 42-7 win. Either way, all this information converges to Washington at #4, and Montana at #7. 

Strength power rating top ten: September 19, 2021

  #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Michigan                    3-0   98.12   75.63 [  2]  -22.49 [  4]
  2. Georgia                     3-0   85.86   73.50 [  3]  -12.35 [ 12]
  3. Mississippi                 3-0   81.37   68.44 [  8]  -12.92 [ 11]
  4. Washington                  1-2   79.59   62.41 [ 27]  -17.18 [  6]
  5. North Carolina              2-1   79.43   78.22 [  1]   -1.21 [ 51]
  6. Virginia Tech               2-1   79.04   51.58 [ 82]  -27.45 [  1]
  7. Montana                     2-0   78.22   53.30 [ 70]  -24.92 [  2]
  8. Texas-San Antonio           3-0   77.16   64.86 [ 16]  -12.29 [ 13]
  9. Virginia                    2-1   73.61   67.54 [  9]   -6.07 [ 26]
 10. Iowa                        3-0   73.33   52.95 [ 74]  -20.38 [  5]

Looking for Alabama? The close Florida win is probably what pins them at #14, one spot below James Madison. Also Miami's close call with Appalachian State and big loss to Michigan State took the shine of the Tide's 44-13 win.

The Crimson Tide are just a few spots ahead of the 1-0 Harvard Crimson, who beat Georgetown 44-9. If your team can do that, right now you should sit at #20 based on that one result. Are they ranked too high? Time will tell with more games, but we're going to assume that yes, Harvard is not a top 25 team. But if Notre Dame had played Georgetown they might have reached the same score, and no one would question Notre Dame being at #20. Fun note: Notre Dame is actually at #101 right now, due to their overtime scare vs. 0-3 FSU, their three point home scare vs. Toledo, and 27-13 win over Purdue.

What's the takeaway? There's not much so far. Michigan might be very, very good—or they might just be good. Washington may have an excuse for their terrible play so far, but not as much as this ranking gives them. UTSA isn't a top ten team but the teams on their schedule should probably take note. 

Three or four weeks from now the Strength power rating will look pretty good, and where it looks confusing, it will be telling you something you should watch out for. Right now where it's confusing? That's just because it's confused. If you didn't know anything about any of these teams, you'd have a hard time making heads or tails of the results so far, too.

2021 Week 3 Preview: Indiana's gut-check; BYU's big opportunity

In week 2, none of our top teams faced any kind of challenge at all (Ohio State wasn't a top team), playing weak foes. The top two teams—and four of the top six—played FCS opponents!

That changes in week 3 as our current top four all play teams that are at least somewhat challenging, some even downright dangerous. And this time only one FCS opponent in the entire top 25. 

Let's start with the top two teams, Alabama and Oklahoma, who play Florida and Nebraska. Some years ago both would be considered deadly opponents and probably 50/50 games. Playing at Florida was an impossible task; Nebraska was the game on the schedule marked for Game of the Year. But these days, with Alabama's ascent to every-other-season national champ, even a foray to The Swamp isn't much to fear. And mostly due to Nebraska's decline, the Sooners probably don't have much to worry about. Both teams are around 20 point favorites by our Power Ratings, and 15 and 22 point favorites by Vegas. Still, this beats Mercer and Western Carolina, and the threat of an upset is still there in both cases.

The real Games of the Week concern our #3 and #4 teams, Arizona State and Indiana

First, Indiana. We projected the Hoosiers to lose to Iowa then win out. So far they've proven they can definitely lose to Iowa. The rest? Not so much. Their first hurdle comes when they host Cincinnati. It's a put-up or shut-up moment. Win and they show the college football world they're still alive. Lose, and at 1-2 we will have to admit we were wrong about them and they will tumble down the projection to a much more realistic spot. We still favor them to win by a couple points, but Vegas has soured on them and favors Cincinnati by a field goal. It's also a big moment for Cincinnati, as it's one of the two games they're most likely to lose (along with Notre Dame). They need to win to be considered a real Playoff contender; right now we have them losing both games and, as a result, not even finishing in the top 25 come Committee decision time. That can change Saturday.

Arizona State has underperformed too, against poor opponents. How will they do against their first real live foe in Brigham Young? Obviously they need a win to live up to our extremely lofty expectations, but the real onus is on BYU. ASU could conceivably lose to BYU, win out and win the Pac-12 by beating Oregon, and still make the Playoff. BYU almost needs to go undefeated to get any consideration. Even at a projected 11-1 they finish #10; with no conference title game they finish behind every 1-loss Power Five school. But if they go undefeated against their majority-Power Five schedule, and have a signature win against Arizona State? It might get them to the Playoff—if ASU, or Utah, or one of their other Pac-12 victims wins that conference. This is really more about BYU than ASU. We have the Sun Devils by a touchdown, and Vegas has them by a field goal.

Current projection of final College Football Playoff standings: this week's opponents, with projected losses in bold

Rnk   Team                 Rec   %Odds   This weekend:
 1.   Alabama              13-0   69.6   @ Florida 
 2.   Oklahoma             13-0   68.2   Nebraska 
 3.   Arizona St           13-0   64.9   @ BYU
 4.   Indiana              12-1   33.9   Cincinnati
 5.   Iowa                 11-1   26.5   Kent State
 6.   Georgia              12-1   21.2   South Carolina
 7.   Clemson              12-1   17.8   Georgia Tech
 8.   UCLA                 11-1   16.4   Fresno State
 9.   Wisconsin            11-2    8.3   --
10.   Brigham Young        11-1    7.9   Arizona State (L)
11.   Miami FL             11-2    7.5   Michigan State
12.   Ohio State           10-2    7.2   Tulsa
13.   Mississippi          10-2    6.8   Tulane
14.   Texas A&M            10-2    6.4   New Mexico
15.   North Carolina       10-2    6.1   Virginia
16.   Notre Dame           10-2    5.7   Purdue
17.   Iowa St              10-3    5.4   @ UNLV
18.   Wake Forest          10-2    5.0   Florida State
19.   Boston College       10-2    4.6   @ Temple
20.   Oregon               10-3    4.3   Stony Brook
21.   Coastal Carolina     13-0    2.5   @ Buffalo
22.   Penn State            9-3    1.4   Auburn
23.   Oklahoma St           9-3    1.1   @ Boise State
24.   TCU                   9-3    0.7   --
25.   Florida               9-3    0.7   Alabama (L)

Really, the rest of the Top 25 doesn't face all that much challenge. Iowa, Georgia, Clemson, and UCLA are all hefty favorites and Wisconsin is idle. That's the top ten.

Some teams that are only single-digit favorites include #11 Miami who hosts 2-0 Michigan State;  #15 North Carolina (vs. 2-0 Virginia); #16 Notre Dame who hosts 2-0 Purdue; and #18 Wake Forest who hosts 0-2 Florida State. Note that this is Vegas's pronouncement; we have all these teams as double-digit winners, but they've all lost games or shown some weakness (except Wake), and their opponents are 2-0 (except FSU...looks like Wake Forest will never be a big favorite against FSU).

That's the top 20. We need to go to the last five to see a few interesting games. The first is Coastal Carolina who travels to Buffalo. If this were last year's Buffalo team we'd call it for the Bulls most likely, and we still se a close game with the Chanticleers winning by 3. Vegas has them a much wider two-touchdown victor.

Penn State vs. Auburn is a big game for both teams. We projected Penn State at 7-5 pre-season and Auburn was counted as a win. We stand by that but it looks close, with Auburn about a touchdown underdog (Vegas agrees). The Tigers are currently projected at 8-4 and winning here would put them on our radar (and knock Penn State off for now).

Finally, Oklahoma State at Boise State is the most likely "upset" on this page. The Cowboys have looked pretty average so far. They haven't lost and it's only a 2-game sample so there's nothing to worry about yet, but also nothing to suggest that 9-3 isn't a ceiling. And that best-case is going to be tested, as our current power rating sees a very close game and probable Cowboy loss. Vegas sees that too, making Boise a 4 1/2 point favorite. Boise won't get on our list with a win—they already lost to UCF which hurt them a lot—but Oklahoma State would be booted.

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection post-week 2: Iowa jumps, Ohio State falls

With most of the top ten playing FCS teams or FBS cupcakes it didn't look like there'd be much change at the top of our College Football Playoff projection. But upsets happen, and they happened concerning Big Ten teams Iowa and Ohio State, sending them in opposite directions but leaving our top four unchanged.

Alabama and Oklahoma are everyone's top Playoff contestants and they were unchallenged. Likewise our two wild card entries, Arizona State and Indiana, had little trouble with their easy assignments. Georgia and Clemson also crushed cans on Saturday, but they both got pushed down a spot by surging Iowa, who moved to a projected 11-1 after a minor upset of rival Iowa State.

Would an Indiana team that wins out and wins the Big Ten stay ahead of the Iowa team that beat them 34-6? Maybe, with the conference title under their belt. Would both Big Ten teams be ranked ahead of a 12-1 Georgia and Clemson? Only Clemson would have a conference title. Really, this outcome would make for a fitful decision by the committee and our formula assigns all of them less than 50% but still double-digit odds along with #8 UCLA. The 2nd projected loss is what causes a pretty big drop in percentage odds; until then, all the motley possibilities for these 1-loss teams could put them in almost any order.

College Football Playoff final standings projection: 9/13/2021 (post-week 2)

Lw   Rnk  Team                 Rec   chg  %Odds   %chg  Results
1    1.   Alabama              13-0  ---   69.6   +0.1  W Mercer 48-14
2    2.   Oklahoma             13-0  ---   68.2   +0.1  W W. Carolina 76-0 
3    3.   Arizona St           13-0  ---   64.9   +0.1  W UNLV 37-10
4    4.   Indiana              12-1  ---   33.9   +1.0  W Idaho 56-14
12   5.   Iowa                 11-1  up 7  26.5  +19.3  W @Iowa State 27-17
5    6.   Georgia              12-1  dn 1  21.2   -4.4  W UAB 56-7
6    7.   Clemson              12-1  dn 1  17.8   -2.4  W S Carolina St 49-3
8    8.   UCLA                 11-1  ---   16.4   +0.9    dnp
11   9.   Wisconsin            11-2  up 2   8.3   +0.7  W Eastern Mich 34-7
10  10.   Brigham Young        11-1  ---    7.9    0.0  W Utah 26-17
13  11.   Miami FL             11-2  up 2   7.5   +0.7  W App State 25-23
7   12.   Ohio State           10-2  dn 5   7.2   -9.7  L Oregon 35-28
14  13.   Mississippi          10-2  up 1   6.8   +0.3  W Austin Peay 54-17
15  14.   Texas A&M            10-2  up 1   6.4   +0.2  W @Colorado 10-7
16  15.   North Carolina       10-2  up 1   6.1   +0.2  W Georgia St 59-17
20  16.   Notre Dame           10-2  up 4   5.7   +3.3  W Toledo 32-29
9   17.   Iowa St              10-3  dn 8   5.4   -9.9  L Iowa 27-17
17  18.   Wake Forest          10-2  dn 1   5.0   -0.5  W Norfolk St 41-16
18  19.   Boston College       10-2  dn 1   4.6   -0.6  W @UMass 45-28
24  20.   Oregon               10-3  up 4   4.3   +3.2  W @Ohio State 35-28
19  21.   Coastal Carolina     13-0  dn 2   2.5   -0.9  W Kansas 49-22
--  22.   Penn State            9-3  new    1.4   +1.4  W Ball State 44-13
21  23.   Oklahoma St           9-3  dn 2   1.1   -1.0  W Tulsa 28-23
22  24.   TCU                   9-3  dn 2   0.7   -1.0  W Cal 34-32
23  25.   Florida               9-3  dn 2   0.7   -0.7  W @USF 42-20

dropped out: #25 Ball State

Wisconsin, like Indiana, gained a small amount from Iowa's win that wasn't offset negatively by Ohio State's loss it seems. The Buckeyes of course were supposed to beat Oregon but instead fall five spots to #12, allowing Miami to rise a bit despite their near-loss and BYU to remain steady at #10 after their expected win over Utah. At least we expected it—it got them some national attention which can't hurt but unless they go unbeaten they're still in no-conference limbo.

Ole Miss and North Carolina won and move up a spot, as does Texas A&M who avoided losing to Colorado; that performance will be forgotten in time. Notre Dame's near loss to Toledo was actually an upset in our book and propels the Irish up four spots. Finally Iowa State lands at #17, down 8; with the loss, they can't lose the first game to Oklahoma and win the 2nd, they need both. Wake Forest and Boston College tread water below.

At #20, up four spots is Oregon. Everyone else is clamoring to usher the Ducks into one of the four Playoff slots, but we don't see it yet. They rate well below Arizona State, and if you don't buy that, there's UCLA who is on their proper schedule. We picked them as North champ and obviously still do, but that just gives them a 3rd loss at this point. Coastal Carolina is nudged down a few spots with the newly-charged Power Five teams pushing past them.

Penn State makes their debut on the list after crushing Ball State. Remember they have a win over Wisconsin, too, and play the three other teams on this list too. Oklahoma State, TCU, and Florida round off the list as projected good-but-not-great finishers. Two of the three nearly lost but close doesn't really count for that much—just don't lose.

The top teams had an easy week and there still managed to be some big movement; the coming Saturday games hold a lot more intrigue with much better matchups in the top line.

 

2021 Week 2 Bayesian Power Rating

Week 2 had fewer big games and it seemed that half the FBS played FCS teams. As such, these games are hard to rate performance-wise for a lot of reason.

First, FCS teams are harder to scout in a normal year let along the past few. Normally we use last year's rating for an FCS team, but many FCS team played in the spring or didn't play at all, so we are using spring values or 2019 ratings.

Second, and more importantly, the expected spreads for these games is often astronomical. If a team doesn't win by that astronomical amount, their rating declines. Is it their fault that they didn't win by 63, but instead only 49? Our reasoning: you shouldn't be scheduling a team you have to beat by 63 to keep your rating.

Our top two teams (Alabama, Oklahoma) are good examples of this. Alabama played Mercer and was a 69 point favorite in our ratings. They won 48-14 (34 points) so they underperformed greatly. Is it reasonable that their rating declined? They remain #1, but the margin between Alabama and Oklahoma tightened significantly. No, we shouldn't encourage running up the score but not getting a shutout says something. When a team can't keep its intensity up against a far inferior opponent, that says something. And again, we shouldn't encourage matchups like this.

Oklahoma faced Western Carolina and our power rating said they should win by 72. That's completely unreasonable to expect a team to win any game by that much. But Oklahoma won 76-0. So they basically tread water from last week.

In action among real teams, Iowa beat Iowa State and moved up to #3. The Cyclones even moved up two spots due to bad performances from Ohio State (loss), and Texas A&M and Miami (very tight wins). Penn State launched into the top ten after dominating Ball State, who fell out of our top 25. In a few weeks all the MAC teams will be where they should be, I think.

The Iowa, Penn State, and Oklahoma games were the #2, #3, #4 best-rated performances of the week. The best? Georgia's 56-7 beatdown of UAB. That moved the Bulldogs ahead of previous victim Clemson into #4.

Big Movers: Houston (beat Rice 44-7) up 20 from #87 to #67 ; Arkansas (beat Texas 40-21) up 15 from #36 to #21; and Oregon (beat Ohio State 35-28) up 13 from #53 to #40. In other words, Oregon is still well outside the top 25 in our power rating.

Big Losers: USC (lost to Stanford 42-28) down 20 from #38 to #58; Ohio (lost to Duquesne 28-26) down 16 from #78 to #94; and Louisiana-Lafayette (beat SE Louisiana 45-42) down 15 from #24 to #39.

The award for worst performance goes to UConn, who fell into dead-last #130 after losing to Purdue at home 49-0 in their first game with interim coach Lou Spanos.

2021 Week 2 Bayesian modification to pre-season ratings

W1	W2	Team	W2 Rating
1	1	Alabama	30.96
2	2	Oklahoma	27.62
4	3	Iowa	27.33
5	4	Georgia	25.93
3	5	Clemson	24.03
7	6	Wisconsin	23.30
15	7	Penn State	20.90
8	8	Arizona St	19.57
11	9	Iowa St	19.11
9	10	Texas A&M	19.09
12	11	Toledo	18.95
6	12	Ohio State	18.68
10	13	Miami FL	18.46
19	14	North Carolina	17.89
16	15	UCLA	17.38
13	16	Cincinnati	17.14
18	17	Auburn	16.93
14	18	Indiana	15.77
17	19	Mississippi	15.48
26	20	Michigan	13.18
36	21	Arkansas	12.82
28	22	Notre Dame	12.65
25	23	Minnesota	12.49
21	24	Coastal Carolina	11.63
23	25	Central Michigan	11.56
20	26	Texas	11.48
30	27	Rutgers	11.15
22	28	Ball St	10.79
39	29	Kent St	10.66
27	30	Western Michigan	10.51
29	31	TCU	10.13
35	32	Brigham Young	9.56
31	33	Eastern Michigan	9.44
34	34	Maryland	9.12
32	35	Oklahoma St	9.12
37	36	Miami OH	9.03
33	37	Florida	8.81
49	38	Nebraska	8.44
24	39	Louisiana-Lafayette	8.31
53	40	Oregon	7.75
48	41	Appalachian St	7.55
43	42	Wake Forest	6.47
50	43	Liberty	6.39
46	44	Boise St	5.87
47	45	Virginia Tech	5.66
41	46	LSU	5.60
45	47	Utah	5.56
42	48	North Carolina St	5.56
51	49	Baylor	5.20
54	50	West Virginia	5.04
57	51	Mississippi St	4.78
40	52	Buffalo	4.74
52	53	Pittsburgh	4.63
44	54	Nevada	4.53
64	55	Virginia	4.37
56	56	Wyoming	4.28
60	57	Central Florida	4.06
38	58	Southern Cal	4.04
59	59	Tulane	4.01
55	60	Northwestern	3.78
58	61	Purdue	3.49
66	62	California	2.42
63	63	San José St	1.94
71	64	Colorado	1.78
61	65	Missouri	1.53
62	66	Troy	1.07
87	67	Houston	1.01
68	68	Kentucky	0.94
65	69	Northern Illinois	0.32
67	70	Washington	-0.03
70	71	Marshall	-0.23
74	72	Michigan St	-1.19
84	73	Oregon St	-1.20
83	74	Texas-San Antonio	-2.02
79	75	Memphis	-2.02
82	76	Louisville	-2.25
72	77	Kansas St	-2.35
69	78	Boston College	-3.08
86	79	SMU	-3.27
85	80	Tennessee	-3.29
73	81	Army	-3.59
88	82	Syracuse	-3.70
75	83	Alabama-Birmingham	-3.75
91	84	Tulsa	-3.76
93	85	San Diego St	-3.93
76	86	Illinois	-3.99
80	87	Washington St	-4.11
77	88	Texas Tech	-4.28
81	89	East Carolina	-4.35
98	90	Stanford	-5.02
94	91	Georgia Tech	-5.44
97	92	Florida Atlantic	-5.76
89	93	Hawai`i	-5.77
78	94	Ohio U.	-6.62
90	95	Fresno St	-6.64
95	96	Georgia St	-8.41
92	97	Florida St	-8.61
99	98	Air Force	-10.06
100	99	Arkansas St	-11.31
104	100	South Carolina	-11.92
101	101	Middle Tennessee St	-11.93
96	102	Rice	-12.37
103	103	Colorado St	-13.34
102	104	South Alabama	-13.61
109	105	UNLV	-15.38
106	106	Texas St-San Marcos	-15.49
114	107	Utah St	-16.15
112	108	Louisiana Tech	-16.80
111	109	Vanderbilt	-17.24
105	110	Arizona	-17.40
119	111	Duke	-18.68
107	112	Georgia Southern	-18.75
110	113	Southern Miss	-19.17
113	114	Florida Int'l	-19.47
108	115	New Mexico	-19.92
118	116	Western Kentucky	-20.72
115	117	North Texas	-21.58
117	118	South Florida	-22.63
122	119	UNC-Charlotte	-27.26
116	120	Akron	-27.78
121	121	Bowling Green	-28.16
125	122	Temple	-28.42
120	123	Navy	-28.81
124	124	Kansas	-28.86
123	125	UTEP	-30.83
127	126	Old Dominion	-31.96
126	127	Louisiana-Monroe	-33.35
129	128	Massachusetts	-42.97
130	129	New Mexico St	-43.71
128	130	Connecticut	-44.46

2021 Week 2 Preview: Playoff ramifications in Iowa

Can Week 2 match Week 1 for big matchups? 

No, not at all. In fact it's chock-full of laughers and cupcake opponents. Still, there are a few key games to watch.

Let's take a look at our current Playoff Projection:

Rnk   Team                Rec   %Odds   This week:
 1.   Alabama             13-0   69.5   Mercer 
 2.   Oklahoma            13-0   68.1   W. Carolina
 3.   Arizona St          13-0   64.8   UNLV
 4.   Indiana             12-1   32.9   Idaho  
 5.   Georgia             12-1   25.6   UAB
 6.   Clemson             12-1   20.2   S Carolina St
 7.   Ohio State          11-1   16.9   Oregon
 8.   UCLA                11-1   15.6   --
 9.   Iowa St             11-2   15.2   Iowa 
10.   Brigham Young       11-1    7.9   Utah
11.   Wisconsin           11-2    7.5   Eastern Mich
12.   Iowa                10-2    7.2   @Iowa State (L) 
13.   Miami FL            11-2    6.9   Appalachian St
14.   Mississippi         10-2    6.5   Austin Peay
15.   Texas A&M           10-2    6.2   @Colorado (Denver)
16.   North Carolina      10-2    5.9   Georgia State
17.   Wake Forest         10-2    5.5   Norfolk State
18.   Boston College      10-2    5.2   @Massachusetts
19.   Coastal Carolina    13-0    3.4   Kansas
20.   Notre Dame           9-3    2.4   Toledo (L)
21.   Oklahoma St          9-3    2.1   Tulsa
22.   TCU                  9-3    1.7   California
23.   Florida              9-3    1.4   @South Florida
24.   Oregon               9-4    1.1   @Ohio State (L)
25.   Ball St             11-1    0.4   @Penn State

Read em and weep:

Mercer, Western Carolina, UNLV, Idaho, UAB, and South Carolina State.

Those are the opponents for our top six Playoff contenders. If any of the contenders lose this week they are in big, big trouble. To be brief, there are no big games to match Alabama vs. Miami or Clemson vs. Georgia this week.

Add in #8 UCLA being idle and the only game of interest in the top 8 is #7 Ohio State hosting #24 Oregon. And since we rank Ohio State #6 in our Bayesian power rating and Oregon has fallen to a dismal #53, we don't expect this to be that much of a game either. But if the Ducks do manage to win they'll get a big boost while the Buckeyes will slide to the middle of the pack. Oregon would still have three more expected losses on their slate, including a Pac-12 title game loss, but it would be a good start—and maybe prove to our power rating that they're a good team.

Probably the real game of the week is Iowa visiting Iowa State. We stick with the Cyclones winning this one in our CFP projection but our Bayesian power rating now has Iowa #3 and Iowa State #14, making the Hawkeyes the favorite there. But don't just look at last week's results (Iowa 34-6 over Indiana, Iowa State 16-10 over Northern Iowa) and expect a dominant Hawkeye win. Many times in the past Iowa State has struggled with (or even lost to) Northern Iowa then turned around and given Iowa a dogfight, win or lose. This is going to be a close game.

If Iowa wins it would put their projection at 11-1 and they'd join the likes of Ohio State and UCLA as 1-loss teams that don't (yet) make their conference championship game. Iowa State losing would mean the Cyclones have 3 projected losses total, and they'd have to beat Oklahoma two times to end up with just 1 loss. That's asking a lot.

#10 BYU has a very important game against Utah, their 2nd straight Pac-12 foe. It's nice to have a win over Arizona but Utah is ranked in the AP Top 25 and that would be a big plus. Or a big minus if they lose, as any loss puts them in a bad spot as an independent with no conference title game to shoot for. #13 Miami has a potentially tough rebound game hosting Appalachian State, but if they can shake off the effects of the Bama beatdown they should be fine. Any hangover from last week could really short circuit the Canes' season.

We hit another major soft patch with #11 Wisconsin facing Eastern Michigan, #14 Mississippi hosting Austin Peay, #16 North Carolina vs. Georgia State, #17 Wake Forest vs. Norfolk State, #18 Boston College vs. UMass, #20 Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa, and #23 Florida at South Florida. Even #15 Texas A&M facing Colorado and #19 Coastal Carolina vs. Kansas are mismatches despite the Power Five opponents. That's a lot of surefire wins—or at least the favored teams better hope. California should at least be a bit of a challenge for #22 TCU.

The MAC's Last Stand

That leaves two more games that matter. #20 Notre Dame takes on Toledo, the only MAC team that did well last week of the four(!) in our pre-season top 25 power rating. Since Toledo is up to #10 in our Bayesian ratings while Notre Dame fell to #29, we still expect a Toledo win. Notre Dame therefore has an opportunity to move up in our rankings with an "upset." If Toledo wins it would cause quite a stir as most people would put this game in the category above—easy win for the more prominent team. The MAC has one more chance to pull off a big surprise.

Or maybe two chances, since #25 Ball State travels to Penn State this week. Our Playoff projections count this as a win for Ball State, but our Bayesian rankings no longer agree as Ball State dropped to #23 and Penn State is up to #15 since beating Wisconsin. We might say goodbye to Ball State, and if that's the case the Nittany Lions would project to 9-3 and likely enter our forecast this coming Monday.

2021 Week 1 Bayesian power rating

Before our regular Strength power rating starts making a modicum of sense (about 3-4 weeks in), we modify our pre-season ratings with a Bayesian modification based on game results. With no further ado, here's the post-week 1 rankings:

• Alabama started the season about a field goal ahead of Oklahoma; after Alabama's thrashing of Miami and Oklahoma's near-loss at Tulane that's already grown to more than a touchdown
• Iowa was a big mover, up 3 to #4 after their 34-6 win over previous #11 (now #14) Indiana
• Georgia was six spots and 6 points behind Clemson to start the year; their 10-3 win wasn't enough to put them in front but it closed the gap to 2 spots and less than 4 points
• Ohio State passed Big Ten rival Wisconsin who lost at home to new #15 Penn State 16-10
• Arizona State's 41-14 win over Southern Utah was deemed unimpressive and dropped the Aztecs to #8
• Toledo was the only of our four(!) MAC teams to rise; they beat Norfolk State 49-10, while #13 Ball State fell 9 spots, #18 Central Michigan fell 5 spots, and #17 Western Michigan fell 10 spots. The latter two lost while Ball State beat Western Illinois just 23-13.

Best upward movers overall were Army, from #92 to #73 after beating Georgia State 43-10; Michigan, #43 to #26 for beating Western Mich 47-14; Marshall #85 to #70 for beating Navy 49-7; and Michigan State #89-#74 for beating Northwestern 38-21.

Worst downward movers include Hawaii (#68 to #89), who underperformed in two games: a 44-10 loss to UCLA and a 49-35 win over Portland State; Tulsa, who fell from #73 to #91 after a 19-17 loss to UC Davis; Washington State (#61 to #80) after a 26-23 loss to Utah State; and San Jose State (#44 to #63), another 1-1 team that underperformed twice, beating Southern Utah 45-14 and losing to USC 30-7.

2021 Week One Bayesian Modification of Pre-season rankings

PRE	W1	Team	W1Rating
1	1	Alabama	35.36
2	2	Oklahoma	27.12
3	3	Clemson	26.82
7	4	Iowa	26.45
9	5	Georgia	23.29
10	6	Ohio State	22.25
6	7	Wisconsin	21.70
4	8	Arizona St	21.48
14	9	Texas A&M	20.89
8	10	Miami FL	20.53
5	11	Iowa St	19.99
12	12	Toledo	19.91
21	13	Cincinnati	19.42
11	14	Indiana	18.18
22	15	Penn State	18.00
20	16	UCLA	17.38
16	17	Mississippi	17.32
24	18	Auburn	16.36
15	19	North Carolina	15.85
30	20	Texas	15.01
19	21	Coastal Carolina	14.46
13	22	Ball St	13.69
18	23	Central Michigan	13.38
25	24	Louisiana-Lafayette	12.87
26	25	Minnesota	12.81
43	26	Michigan	12.47
17	27	Western Michigan	12.47
27	28	Notre Dame	11.68
28	29	TCU	11.67
33	30	Rutgers	11.37
29	31	Eastern Michigan	11.04
23	32	Oklahoma St	11.02
36	33	Florida	9.80
35	34	Maryland	9.51
32	35	Brigham Young	9.31
38	36	Arkansas	9.29
31	37	Miami OH	8.71
49	38	Southern Cal	8.47
34	39	Kent St	8.25
39	40	Buffalo	7.70
45	41	LSU	7.46
51	42	North Carolina St	7.44
37	43	Wake Forest	6.97
52	44	Nevada	5.89
40	45	Utah	5.81
47	46	Boise St	5.74
58	47	Virginia Tech	5.67
54	48	Appalachian St	5.48
42	49	Nebraska	5.47
56	50	Liberty	5.35
48	51	Baylor	5.11
50	52	Pittsburgh	4.20
53	53	Oregon	4.18
57	54	West Virginia	4.03
41	55	Northwestern	3.77
60	56	Wyoming	3.19
46	57	Mississippi St	2.90
59	58	Purdue	2.74
69	59	Tulane	2.65
63	60	Central Florida	2.32
71	61	Missouri	2.21
72	62	Troy	2.10
44	63	San José St	1.94
66	64	Virginia	1.68
62	65	Northern Illinois	1.41
64	66	California	0.89
70	67	Washington	0.68
67	68	Kentucky	0.26
55	69	Boston College	0.15
85	70	Marshall	0.00
76	71	Colorado	-0.02
79	72	Kansas St	-0.28
92	73	Army	-0.66
89	74	Michigan St	-0.95
82	75	Alabama-Birmingham	-1.11
74	76	Illinois	-1.30
87	77	Texas Tech	-1.36
65	78	Ohio U.	-1.74
81	79	Memphis	-1.89
61	80	Washington St	-1.98
78	81	East Carolina	-2.00
83	82	Louisville	-2.01
88	83	Texas-San Antonio	-2.47
84	84	Oregon St	-2.86
86	85	Tennessee	-2.86
90	86	SMU	-3.47
75	87	Houston	-3.51
95	88	Syracuse	-3.92
68	89	Hawai`i	-4.12
91	90	Fresno St	-4.36
73	91	Tulsa	-5.66
97	92	Florida St	-5.73
80	93	San Diego St	-6.26
94	94	Georgia Tech	-6.26
77	95	Georgia St	-6.38
96	96	Rice	-7.85
99	97	Florida Atlantic	-8.35
98	98	Stanford	-9.44
93	99	Air Force	-10.85
101	100	Arkansas St	-11.44
110	101	Middle Tennessee St	-11.95
104	102	South Alabama	-12.27
100	103	Colorado St	-12.48
106	104	South Carolina	-14.26
111	105	Arizona	-15.06
109	106	Texas St-San Marcos	-15.41
102	107	Georgia Southern	-16.17
107	108	New Mexico	-16.87
105	109	UNLV	-17.29
108	110	Southern Miss	-18.62
103	111	Vanderbilt	-18.84
115	112	Louisiana Tech	-19.18
112	113	Florida Int'l	-19.55
118	114	Utah St	-19.96
116	115	North Texas	-21.39
114	116	Akron	-23.59
113	117	South Florida	-23.62
120	118	Western Kentucky	-23.66
117	119	Duke	-24.58
119	120	Navy	-28.02
121	121	Bowling Green	-29.50
122	122	UNC-Charlotte	-30.00
126	123	UTEP	-30.70
123	124	Kansas	-31.69
124	125	Temple	-32.61
125	126	Louisiana-Monroe	-33.35
127	127	Old Dominion	-37.55
128	128	Connecticut	-43.70
129	129	Massachusetts	-46.20
130	130	New Mexico St	-46.76

2021 Week 1 best and worst performances

Every single FBS team—all 130—played over the long weekend. Who did the best? Who did the worst in week one? Here we go.

Best (rankings are ours pre-season):

1. #1 Alabama 44-13 over #8 Miami (neutral): Sad to say but the best team had the best game. How's that for ruining any surprise going forward in the season? It wasn't unexpected—we pointed out how Alabama punishes teams in the first game, ruining both that's teams hope for a championship year, as well as the college football world's hope that things might be different this year. This was the best performance and it wasn't even close. The loss knocked Miami down to #12 in our early-season Bayesian power ratings.
2. #7 Iowa 34-6 over #11 Indiana: The Hawkeyes dominated from the start and led 31-3 at the half, getting two pick-sixes in the win. Iowa rose to #3 after this and Indiana fell to #16.
3. #21 Cincinnati 49-14 over #31 Miami Ohio: Part of this results is just the MAC teams being overrated in our pre-season, but there's no doubt Cincy took care of business in a big way regardless, moving up to #11 while Miami dropped to #39. They probably still have a lot farther to fall but we'll see.
4. #14 Texas A&M 41-10 over #34 Kent State: Another MAC overrating but another solid performance in a week where a lot of the best teams clearly underperformed. The Aggies rise to #8 and the Flashes fall to #40.
5. #43 Michigan 47-14 over #17 Western Mich: Three in a row from the MAC, and this one we expected Michigan to lose as we ranked them only #43 with the Broncos in the top 25! They fall to #28 while the Wolverines jump to #24, so at least their relative ranks have been corrected. Wolverine fans might not be seeing this as a big deal but it could be.
6. #9 Georgia 10-3 over #3 Clemson (neutral): Obviously a win over Clemson is a big deal, even in a close game where neither offense scored a touchdown. Despite the loss Clemon's performance would actually rank #11 if we had another spot, since losing to Georgia by only 7 is pretty great, too. Not much consolation for Tiger fans I fear as they fall to #4 and the Bulldogs jump to #5. It wasn't convincing enough for our Bayesian algorithm to put Georgia in front yet.
7. #10 Ohio State 45, #26 Minnesota 14 (road): Most observers saw this as a weak Buckeye performance but since we only had them #10—and had Minnesota #26—we weren't surprised, and in the end it wasn't as close as we expected. Either way we see beating the Gophers in Minneapolis to be a tough feat. Minnesota holds at #26, though, as Ohio State climbs to #6.
8. #22 Penn State 16, #6 Wisconsin 10 (road): Another Big Ten road win, this one an upset by Penn State who jumps to #15 while Wisconsin falls just to #7 after losing by less than a touchdown. The Badgers could have dominated this game if their offense could have functioned in the red zone but Penn State wasn't having it, getting two consecutive late picks defending their goal.
9. #30 Texas 38, #25 Louisiana-Lafayette 18: Texas was ranked lower but we expected a close win at home; instead the Longhorns won convincingly over a top 25 team. ULL remains at #25 while Texas, having proved they are better to the satisfaction of our Bayesian formula, jumps to #20.
10. #24 Auburn 60, #114 Akron 10: Another MAC victim, but this one isn't overrated at #114 (though they do slip to #118 after). The Tigers avoided the first-game jitters that caused a lot of the top-ranked teams to lose or almost lose. 

Now for the five worst. Few surprises here:

1. #129 UConn 28, Holy Cross 38: This loss caused a coach to resign and then essentially get fired afterwards. Losing at home to an FCS team will do that sometimes.
2. #128 UMass 7, #50 Pittsburgh 51: UMass actually exceeded expectations with this terrible game. As a result Pitt actually fell a couple of spots for not dominating enough. Should have gotten the shutout, Panthers!
3. #119 Navy 7, #85 Marshall 49: Navy got destroyed at home by Marshall who rose to #67 as a result. Navy only dropped to #120 though, since the spacing at the bottom is pretty wide.
4. #130 New Mexico State 3, #126 UTEP 30: Not the biggest blowout loss but it came to the #126 team at home. It still didn't change either team's ranking as New Mexico State can't go any lower.
5. #124 Temple 14, #33 Rutgers 61: The Owls laid an egg in their first game as Rutgers—ranked #33 in our pre-season but never feared as a team that should put up 60+ points—took it to them all day. The Scarlet Knights jumped to #27 while Temple held at #124 (which is reasonable for having the #126 performance)

 

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection: post-week 1: Georgia up big, but Indiana sneaks in

The first update to our College Football Playoff projections is...interesting to say the least. We have a new entry in the top four, as Clemson falls out to make room for...Indiana?

Indiana, who got beat by Iowa? Yes, Indiana. The Hoosiers were expected to lose that game, but that's the only one, and if they indeed beat Ohio State down the road and win the Big Ten, they have a very good chance of making the Playoff. Of course, we didn't expect a 34-6 drubbing which puts a lot of doubt as to whether Indiana is remotely good enough to pull that off, but one bad game doesn't change our forecast. Due to Clemson's unexpected loss the Hoosiers slide up and gain 12.4% to their previous odds.

Clemson's loss does put the Tigers in danger with their poor schedule. They fall to #6, right behind #5 Georgia who beat them. The Bulldogs have a great chance to get in (25.6%, up 16.2%), even if they lose as projected in the SEC final to Alabama. In fact, it's very close between Indiana, Georgia, and Clemson if those events occur. Indiana and Clemson would have conference titles, which Georgia would not, and the Committee is very high on conference titles. But the Bulldogs have a win over Clemson, and Indiana's 28-point Saturday loss would count heavily against them. Presumably if Georgia ran the table and lost a very tight game to Alabama they'd be in. Otherwise it would be Indiana, unless Clemson could match Alabama's drubbing of projected ACC title foe Miami.

Three of the top four remain from last week, though only #1 Alabama played like a title contender. #2 Oklahoma survived a crazy comeback scare at Tulane, and new #3 Arizona State was...adequate...in dispatching FCS Southern Utah. But no one remembers these close calls or poor opening day games by the end of the season. All three of these teams have >50% odds as all are projected to go undefeated, but Oklahoma raised some doubts and ASU is very unproven despite our lofty prediction.

College Football Playoff final standings projection: 9/7/2021 (post-week 1)

LW   Rnk  Team                Rec   chg  %Odds   %chg  Results
1    1.   Alabama             13-0  ---   69.5   +1.7  W =Miami 44-13
2    2.   Oklahoma            13-0  ---   68.1   +1.7  W @Tulane 40-35
4    3.   Arizona St          13-0  up 1  64.8   +7.0  W S Utah 41-14
5    4.   Indiana             12-1  up 1  32.9  +12.4  L @Iowa 34-6 
12   5.   Georgia             12-1  up 7  25.6  +16.2  W =Clemson 10-3
3    6.   Clemson             12-1  dn 3  20.2  -42.9  L =Georgia 10-3
7    7.   Ohio State          11-1  ---   16.9   +5.0  W @Minn 45-31 
8    8.   UCLA                11-1  ---   15.6   +5.0  W LSU 38-27 
11   9.   Iowa St             11-2  up 2  15.2   +5.6  W N Iowa 16-10 
13  10.   Brigham Young       11-1  up 3   7.9   +1.4  W =Ariz 24-16 
6   11.   Wisconsin           11-2  dn 5   7.5   -7.6  L Penn St 16-10 
14  12.   Iowa                10-2  up 2   7.2   +1.0  W Indiana 34-6 
9   13.   Miami FL            11-2  dn 4   6.9   -3.4  L =Alabama 44-13 
15  14.   Mississippi         10-2  up 1   6.5   +0.6  W L'ville 43-24
16  15.   Texas A&M           10-2  up 1   6.2   +0.6  W Kent St 41-10   
10  16.   North Carolina      10-2  dn 6   5.9   -4.1  L VA Tech 17-10
17  17.   Wake Forest         10-2  ---    5.5   +0.3  W Old Dom 41-10
18  18.   Boston College      10-2  ---    5.2   +0.2  W Colgate 51-0
19  19.   Coastal Carolina    13-0  ---    3.4    0.0  W Citadel 52-14
20  20.   Notre Dame           9-3  ---    2.4   -0.1  W @FSU 41-38 OT
21  21.   Oklahoma St          9-3  ---    2.1   -0.1  W Mizz St 23-16
22  22.   TCU                  9-3  ---    1.7   -0.1  W Duquesne 45-3
23  23.   Florida              9-3  ---    1.4   -0.2  W Fla Atl 35-14
24  24.   Oregon               9-4  ---    1.1   -0.2  W Fresno St 31-24
--  25.   Ball St             11-1  new    0.4   +0.4  W West IL 31-21

dropped out: #25 Western Michigan

Ohio State and UCLA stayed at #7 and #8 but each added 5% to their odds as Clemson disgorged 43 percentage points, from 63.1% to 20.2%. The Buckeyes actually did better than we projected, and UCLA was a bit weaker, opposite the conventional wisdom. Of course we ranked OSU only #10 pre-season and UCLA #20 when they weren't in the AP top 25 (they entered at #16 after beating LSU). 

#9 Iowa State moved up two spots, and #10 BYU three despite poor games by both teams. The Cyclones were very nearly upset by in-state FCS rival Northern Iowa while BYU was tested by lowly Arizona. But a win is a win and that's all Iowa State needs to keep their dream season alive. And BYU gets a Power Five win which is very important to them. Iowa also moves up but they deserve their move after beating Indiana soundly. But even Iowa moved up due to other losses: #6 Wisconsin falling to #11, #9 Miami falling to #13, and #10 North Carolina falling to #16.

The Badgers lost to Penn State at home, Miami to Alabama on a neutral field, and UNC to Virginia Tech on the road. Wisconsin and UNC were supposed to win so the losses hurt their odds but their situations are not unrecoverable given enough chaos. Miami was supposed to lose, but losing 44-13 hurts them with the Committee. Luckily it's the first game and they can still recover. The problem is that both North Carolina and Clemson were upset this weekend, devaluing them; UNC was supposed to be Miami's signature win of the year, and Clemson is a possible ACC title game foe. With Clemson no longer undefeated, Miami doesn't "count" as a 1-loss team anymore (conference title game losses to undefeated teams are nominally discounted), so now they're lumped in with the regular two-time losers.

Mississippi and Texas A&M both moved up one spot due to UNC's loss, while Wake Forest and Boston College held steady below the Tar Heels (Wake is expected to lose to UNC, BC to Wake). The projected 9-3 teams held steady though they all lose a tiny bit of their percentage as all projected 3-loss teams will do as the season progresses (we miscalculated Notre Dame's value previously). #24 Oregon survived a scare but it doesn't matter—a win's a win when it's all said and done. 

Western Michigan lost—and lost bad—to Michigan, dumping them out of the projected top 25 replaced by fellow MAC team Ball State. The Cardinals were yet another unimpressive first week team, barely beating FCS Western Illinois and putting their 11-1 projection in major doubt.

North Carolina takes early hit in 2021 Playoff run

Virginia Tech upset North Carolina 17-10 Friday night, the first ranked team to fall this weekend...there will probably be plenty more. But the Tar Heel loss is a good case to study how an unexpected loss affects longer-term projections.

So already we modify our Projected College Football Playoff Final Standings:

rnk  Team                       Rec
  1. Alabama                    13-0   
  2. Oklahoma                   13-0   
  3. Clemson                    13-0   
  4. Arizona St                 13-0   
  5. Indiana                    12-1   
  6. Wisconsin                  12-1   
  7. Ohio State                 11-1   
  8. UCLA                       11-1   
  9. Iowa St                    11-2   
 10. Miami FL                   11-2   
 11. Georgia                    11-2   
 12. Iowa                       10-2   
 13. Brigham Young              11-1   
 14. Mississippi                10-2   
 15. Texas A&M                  10-2   
 16. North Carolina             10-2   
 17. Wake Forest                10-2   
 18. Boston College             10-2   
 19. Coastal Carolina           13-0   
 20. Notre Dame                  9-3   
 21. Oklahoma St                 9-3   
 22. TCU                         9-3   
 23. Florida                     9-3   
 24. Oregon                      9-4   
 25. Western Michigan           12-1 

UNC was #10 in our Playoff projection at pre-season at 11-1, losing only to Miami. Now they're 0-1, projected to be 10-2, and fall to #16. They remain ahead of #17 Wake Forest and #20 Notre Dame, two teams they play in the middle of the season and are projected to beat.

North Carolina faces Miami, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest all in a row (with FSU before and Pitt following). So taking a loss now certainly isn't ideal. But their schedule gives the Tar Heels opportunity to get right back into the thick of it...providing they fix the problems they had against Virginia Tech. We had them the 15th best team, AP ranked them #10—but if they just aren't that good this year their schedule will crush them.

Outside of UNC there's not a lot of movement, as would be expected. Virginia Tech, only #58 in our pre-season rankings, is now projected to be 7-5, not good enough to make the Committee's radar. But because of North Carolina's loss, former #9 Miami falls to #10 because the value of their future projected win over UNC is diminished; this allows Iowa State to slide up a spot to #9.

Another game affected the rankings, too: BYU, instead of sliding up to #12, remains at #13 while Iowa jumps to #12. This happened because of Boise State's loss to Central Florida. Boise State was one of the biggest "skins" of BYU's schedule, and that loss makes that (projected) win less valuable.

There's a lot of season to go, and these minor shuffles—other than North Carolina's—will pretty much wash out in the long run, even by the end of this long weekend. With all the big games happening Saturday we're bound to see some major changes. The takeaway though, is that every game has some kind of effect on every other team, because that's how Strength of Schedule—a huge part of the Committee's focus—is determined.