***See entire pre-season rankings #1 to #130 and explanation***
- Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC #1; West #1) AP: #1
2020 Rank: #1 (13-0) Off: #1 Def: #4
2021 Projection: 12-0 (13-0) Off: #8 Def: #3
Recruiting (20-21): #1
Verdict: We hate to be boring, we tried to stir things up by allowing teams with a small sample of games to be treated as if they'd played a full season, and to not worry about lack of conference interplay. It got us one surprise team in the top 4 and a bunch of MAC squads in our top 25. But the #1 team is pretty much everyone else's #1 team, and the same as last year's #1 team. Even losing 2/3 of their offensive production can't stop them (because they are #1 in recruiting). They lose over 20% on defense but move up a notch. They're almost 8 points worse than last year but still rank better than every other team, and remain top 10 in both offense and defense. Schedule: As they do every so often Alabama opens against a top 25 opponent on a neutral field; this time it's Miami in Atlanta. In 2017 they beat #3 FSU 24-7; in 2016, #20 USC 52-6; 2012, #8 Michigan 41-14. The Tide tend to make a statement at these games and that's bad news for Miami. They face Mercer a week later, then Southern Miss and (in November) New Mexico State round out the non-conference teams. In the SEC they have Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Auburn on the road, and it doesn't make a difference. Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, and Arkansas at home. They don't face Georgia until the SEC title game, and we favor the Tide by more than a touchdown even in Atlanta. Hope: This is everything Tide fans want: another undefeated year, another entry into the College Football Playoff. They're winning a title every other year over the past 12 years, so the only question is, is this an on-year or an off-year? - Oklahoma Sooners (Big Twelve #1) AP: #2
2020 Rank: #4 (9-2) Off: #8 Def: #10
2021 Projection: 12-0 (13-0) Off: #4 Def: #20
Recruiting (20-21): #9
Verdict: Our number two team matches the AP poll as well. The Sooners return enough on offense to jump from #8 to #4 and while the defense slips it remains in the top 20. Top ten recruiting fills the gaps. Schedule: Oklahoma opens the season at Tulane, then returns home for Western Carolina and then Nebraska. If this were 1971 or 1995 that would mean trouble but in 2021 it's just another game and probably not a competitive one. They have to watch out though, Oklahoma has a propensity to get upset once they are in national title talk. They'll be favored in every Big Twelve game, too, from West Virginia to the Red River Showdown against Texas to their last two, Iowa State and at Oklahoma State. They'll have to beat one of those last two again, probably Iowa State, in the Big Twelve championship game. Hope: It's been a generation since an Oklahoma national championship, so long that they'd actually be a big relief from the constant Clemson/Alabama/some-other-SEC-team/maybe-Ohio-State endless repetition. - Clemson Tigers (ACC #1; Atlantic #1) AP: #3
2020 Rank: #3 (10-2) Off: #4 Def: #12
2021 Projection: 12-0 (13-0) Off: #11 Def: #9
Recruiting (20-21): #5
Verdict: Three for three so far in agreement with the AP unfortunately. Clemson was a breath of fresh air many years ago but now they're another team we're getting tired of seeing in the Playoff. But they're set to return in 2021 despite losing 50% of their offensive production. That knocks their offense from #4 to #11 while the defense actually gets better. Recruiting is stellar as it has been for years. And the ACC is pretty weak once again making their schedule navigable. Schedule: That's not to say the Tigers don't take some chances such as the Georgia opener. On a neutral field the Tigers should win the battle of top ten teams. The other non-conference foes are South Carolina State, UConn, and South Carolina. In the ACC Clemson's two toughest foes are in the other division and they don't meet. That means Clemson's toughest ACC game is probably Wake Forest at home or Pitt on the road. We can easily see them going 8-0, meeting Miami in the ACC championship game, and emerging 13-0. Hope: Fans already expect to make the Playoff, they're just hoping this is one of the years where they win it. After all they haven't won since 2018, the fan base is getting restless! - Arizona State Sun Devils (Pac-12 #1; South #1) AP: #25
2020 Rank: #19 (2-2) Off: #14 Def: #33
2021 Projection: 12-0 (13-0) Off: #9 Def: #7
Recruiting (20-21): #37
Verdict: Here's where we veer from the consensus with a surprise Playoff contender: Arizona State. Just in time for NCAA investigations into their recruiting practices, too. But let's not worry about that right now. Last year's team was just 2-2 but ranked #19 as the losses were close and the wins were blowouts, including a 70-7 mopping of Arizona. A 4-game sample is good enough for 2021 and helps shake things up. But it's not just that: ASU returns 89% of its offense and, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly, 100% of their relevant defense (every player in the 2020 defensive stats section in Phil Steele's review is in bold). That puts the Sun Devils in the top 10 across the board and into our #4 position. Recruiting wasn't quite at that level or they might have been #3 or better. They also wouldn't be in trouble with the NCAA if they had kept recruiting under control. Schedule: Two easy home games—Southern Utah and UNLV—are followed by a trip to BYU. That would have spelled trouble last year but ASU is a lot better while BYU is a lot worse. Then the Sun Devils play 9 Pac-12 conference games and based on our numbers no one can touch them. Barring upsets, the Sun Devils are 12-0 and win the Pac-12 championship game against someone (Oregon maybe? it doesn't really matter). Hope: ASU fans hope we're right about the team. And they hope the NCAA investigations don't result in a post-season ban this year. We'll be honest, we hope so too in both cases because there needs to be some new blood in the playoff! - Iowa State Cyclones (Big Twelve #2) AP: #7
2020 Rank: #8 (9-3) Off: #19 Def: #9
2021 Projection: 11-1 (11-2) Off: #10 Def: #11
Recruiting (20-21): #53
Verdict: Everyone's on board the Cyclone hype-train and we're no exception. With 94% of their offense back that unit is top ten worthy, and the defense is at the same level. Schedule: Iowa State hosts Northern Iowa in the opener and unlike some years where they've had a problem with the Panthers that shouldn't be the case this season—unless they're looking ahead too much to the top ten showdown with Iowa the next week. That's one of two key games that determines how far the Cyclones go this season. We have the Cyclones beating Iowa at home and trouncing UNLV to start 3-0. The Big Twelve offers some challenges; they lost at Oklahoma State last year but they get the Cowboys at home. The big game of course is Oklahoma on the road in November and we have that marked as Iowa State's only loss—that is, until the championship game rematch in Arlington, where we have to favor the Sooners again. Hope: Well, the Cyclones get two shots to beat Oklahoma, and only the 2nd game really counts. - Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten #1; West #1) AP: #12
2020 Rank: #17 (4-3) Off: #43 Def: #3
2021 Projection: 12-0 (12-1) Off: #36 Def: #2
Recruiting (20-21): #19
Verdict: Something always goes wrong for Wisconsin. Keep that in mind as we rank them #6, up from last year's #17. The offense and defense return 80%+ from strong 2020 units and recruiting has been good under Paul Chryst lately. Schedule: The Badgers host Penn State in the opener and should win that one at home, and even if Eastern Michigan is better than normal they won't beat Wisconsin in Madison. Then they face Notre Dame in Chicago; we don't consider the Irish to be a huge threat this year. The other non-conference game is Army and that should make for a hard-fought 4-0 season outside the Big Ten. Inside the Big Ten the only major threat in the West is Iowa, and the Badgers play the Hawkeyes at home. So we project a perfect season for Wisconsin. But remember something always goes wrong, and in this case it's the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis, where Wisconsin would face Indiana. It's not strictly a home game for the Hoosiers but it's enough to project an upset that keeps Wisconsin out of the College Football Playoff. Hope: Obviously going 13-0 would be great. But let's be real: there are a number of tough games on the slate. Between Penn State, Notre Dame, Iowa, and the Big Ten title game against either Indiana or Ohio State, that's a lot to ask of a team with a history of always finding the one loss that excludes them from the national title picture. - Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten #2; West #2) AP: #18
2020 Rank: #5 (6-2) Off: #18 Def: #5
2021 Projection: 10-2 Off: #27 Def: #4
Recruiting (20-21): #26
Verdict: We think everyone's sleeping on the Hawkeyes. While Iowa State is all the buzz this preseason, last year the Hawks fell off the radar after opening 0-2. After that they beat six Big Ten opponents by an average of 36-14. The offense was good and the defense was great. This year the offense loses some key components (1/3 of production) but slips marginally while the defense should be just as good. Recruiting is typical for Iowa, borderline top 25. Schedule: Iowa hosts Indiana in the opener and should win at home but it will be a huge test. Then they travel to rival Iowa State to face the #5 Cyclones. A 2-0 start would be fantastic for the Hawks ranking but just avoiding 0-2 would be fine. They host a tougher-than-expected Kent State, then Colorado State and should be 3-1 before the rest of the conference season. They're capable of beating everyone in the Big Ten at home but they draw Wisconsin on the road, leaving them out of the Big Ten title picture. Hope: With three very tough games on the schedule winning 2 of 3 is all they can hope for. Fans might prefer to beat Iowa State but beating the Badgers would put them in the Big Ten Championship and possibly the Playoff. - Miami Hurricanes (ACC #2; Coastal #1) AP: #14
2020 Rank: #24 (8-3) Off: #20 Def: #36
2021 Projection: 11-1 (11-2) Off: #14 Def: #22
Recruiting (20-21): #15
Verdict: Miami is starting to look like Texas: every year they're projected to be "back" and after a solid start things fizzle at the end when the competition gets tougher. This year might be different for a couple of reasons. First, they really do look good on paper, with 91% of both their offense and defense back from a top 25 team and solid recruiting filling in the gaps. And second, their big challenges come early this season so at least they won't form the same disappointing pattern. Schedule: Miami takes on #1 Alabama in Atlanta, and it really wouldn't matter if the game were in Miami, we just don't see them being quite good enough; Alabama tends to crush dreams in the season opener. Appalachian State is no slouch and the Canes can't fall victim to a letdown game, but they should win that and beat Michigan State and Central Connecticut of course. The ACC season has one huge challenge: North Carolina on the road. We think Miami wins that one to finish 8-0 in conference, meeting Clemson and losing the ACC title game. Hope: Miami might end up playing both Alabama and Clemson; winning one of the two is not impossible, but beating both doesn't seem realistic. Beating the Tigers could put them in the Playoff, so that's the one fans should choose. - Georgia Bulldogs (SEC #2; East #1) AP: #5
2020 Rank: #6 (8-2) Off: #16 Def: #7
2021 Projection: 11-1 (11-2) Off: #15 Def: #37
Recruiting (20-21): #2
Verdict: We don't expect Georgia to be better than last year's 8-2 team as they lose half their relevant players on defense, sinking a top ten unit to #37. Great recruiting—#2 over the past two years—will insure that the D improves throughout the year and it keeps the Bulldogs from slipping out of the top ten. And the offense still looks strong with 80% of production back. Schedule: The year starts with a bang as Georgia plays Clemson in Charlotte with Playoff implications immediately. We don't see the Bulldogs quite passing the test as the defense will be at its weakest early on. Georgia's other non-conference foes, UAB, Charleston Southern, and Georgia Tech, won't put up much of a fight. In the SEC Georgia dominates the much weaker East, beating all five opponents handily, even Florida in Jacksonville. From the West they draw Arkansas (home) and Auburn (road) and should win both. That puts them at 8-0 and in the championship game vs. Alabama. Even if we give them home advantage for playing in state in Atlanta it isn't enough to close the gap. Hope: They might beat Clemson...or they might beat Alabama in the title game. Both is too much to ask of a team that loses half its defense. - Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten #3; East #1) AP: #4
2020 Rank: #2 (7-1) Off: #2 Def: #14
2021 Projection: 11-1 Off: #5 Def: #62
Recruiting (20-21): #3
Verdict: Here's where we depart from the AP top 4—Ohio State doesn't make it to the playoff. That's what happens when you return only about 50% of production on both sides of the ball. The #2 offense is still in the top 5, but the #14 defense falls to average and that's what hurts the team. Of course stellar recruiting will shore up the defense enough to keep the team from sinking farther than #10, if falling to #10 is considered sinking. For Ohio State it is! Schedule: We don't suppose the Buckeyes will have any problem against Oregon (whom we consider overrated), Tulsa, or Akron. In the Big Ten the Buckeyes avoid playing the two teams ranked ahead of them, Wisconsin and Iowa, but they play Indiana on the road and that's what keeps them from going undefeated. It also keeps them out of the Big Ten championship game and ultimately out of the College Football Playoff. Hope: Obviously the hope of Ohio State fans is the same every year—a national title. But we don't think it's in the cards this year. Even if they beat the Hoosiers they won't win the Big Ten, and even if they win the Big Ten they won't win the Playoff, as the defense is hit too hard. - Indiana Hoosiers (Big Ten #4; East #2) AP: #17
2020 Rank: #16 (6-2) Off: #42 Def: #2
2021 Projection: 11-1 (12-1) Off: #43 Def: #1
Recruiting (20-21): #56
Verdict: Indiana came within a touchdown of beating Ohio State last year which is probably why the AP ranks them in 2021. It makes sense as they should be roughly as good on both offense and defense this year. We ranked the Hoosiers #2 on defense for 2020 and they move up to the #1 spot this year. Schedule: Indiana has a very tough road opener at Iowa and it could start the Hoosiers off at 0-1. They go back to Bloomington to face Idaho before hosting Cincinnati in another killer game; we think they edge the Bearcats though at home. Beating Western Kentucky should put the Hoosiers at 3-1. The rest of the way is Big Ten season. Penn State on the road is a huge test they might just barely pass, and they get Ohio State at home this year and could get the job done this time. That puts them at 8-0 and into the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis against Wisconsin. If that counts as home field advantage, they might even beat Wisconsin there. Hope: For this schedule an 11-1 finish would be magnificent They can't be even disappointed at 8-4. - Toledo Rockets (MAC #1; West #1) AP: NR
2020 Rank: #21 (4-2) Off: #24 Def: #24
2021 Projection: 11-1 Off: #22 Def: #6
Recruiting (20-21): #69
Verdict: How did Toledo get here? By being part of the MAC nexus in a limited 2020 season (see Ball State below for more details). The Rockets lost to Ball State and Western Michigan by just 3 points each, enough to settle them at #21 last year. With 81% of the offense and a whopping 97% on defense coming back, Toledo rockets up to #12. Even recruiting isn't that terrible. They are truly an oblique pick for a near top-10 pick, but we decided to let the MAC teams stay where they are rather than "correct" their placement using previous seasons or watering down low game totals. Schedule: Toledo is ranked so high they are favored to cruise through the non-conference schedule, beating Norfolk State, then edging Notre Dame in South Bend. After that, Colorado State and UMass are afterthoughts. Seriously, if the Rockets upset Notre Dame it will be huge; we think they might give them a scare at best but officially we have the Rockets 4-0 non-conference. In the MAC the Rockets are top dog but home field advantage is a thing; just two weeks after "beating" Notre Dame they lose to Ball State on the road. In our world that sets up a 3-way tie at 7-1 between Toledo, Ball State, and Western Michigan that probably resolves to the Broncos. So even our super-inflated version of Toledo doesn't even win the MAC in the end. Hope: If Toledo really is this good they could go 8-0 in the MAC and then win the title. At the same time, we already gave them the Notre Dame game; a 12-0 run is a bit much for a team that went 6-6 in 2019. - Ball State Cardinals (MAC #2; West #2) AP: #(36)
2020 Rank: #15 (7-1) Off: #15 Def: #16
2021 Projection: 11-1 Off: #12 Def: #12
Recruiting (20-21): #108
Verdict: Are 2nd-ranked MAC team is probably the only one that gets some support from the outside world. Ball State was 7-1 last year with a dominant 34-13 win over San Jose State in the Arizona Bowl, one of the MAC's two games (both wins) outside of conference play. It's the game that boosted the MAC to outrageous heights in our power ratings, but it was a legit win by a strong Ball State squad who also handed Buffalo their only loss. And most of the team is back in 2021 with over 80% of production returning on offense and almost 90% on defense. The Cards will be solid on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and that's why a handful of AP writers gave Ball State some Top 25 support. Call us crazy for having four MAC teams in the top 25 but this one isn't so far-fetched. Schedule: The Cardinals open with Western Illinois and then it's on to Penn State where they hope to make waves in the college football world. We do (barely...had to double check) pick them to win on the road but if it's even a close game people might take notice. We also pick the Cardinals to beat Wyoming and Army. In the MAC they're #2 to Toledo but they get the Rockets at home; unfortunately they don't run the table as they face Western Michigan on the road. This projects to a 3-way tie at 7-1 in the West that we can't figure out; Ball State might win the tiebreaker but probably it's Western Michigan. Hope: Beating Penn State would be a huge deal. And if that happens going 13-0 isn't an impossibility; that would put the Cardinals in a New Year's Day bowl. But let's be real, 10-2 would be great, too. - Texas A&M Aggies (SEC #3; West #2) AP: #6
2020 Rank: #11 (9-1) Off: #21 Def: #8
2021 Projection: 10-2 Off: #60 Def: #5
Recruiting (20-21): #6
Verdict: We drop the Aggies a few spots from last year's results (#11 to #14) due to a large decline in their offensive ranking spurred by the loss of more than half their productive personnel from 2020. Great recruiting should shore up the offense somewhat. Defense is where they excelled last year holding teams under 15 points in five games, and that side of the ball might be even better this season. Schedule: A breezy non-conference schedule features Kent State as their toughest test, though they do travel to Colorado in game two. New Mexico and Prairie View A&M round out what should be an easy 4-0. In the SEC they play Alabama of course and probably lose to Mississippi on the road. Hope: Without a better offense the Aggies are limited by playing in the tough SEC West. 11-1 might be their ceiling, as even if they upset Alabama at home the Ole Miss and Auburn games are potential losses. - North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC #3; Coastal #2) AP: #10
2020 Rank: #22 (8-4) Off: #10 Def: #73
2021 Projection: 11-1 Off: #6 Def: #68
Recruiting (20-21): #14
Verdict: Everyone's gaga about North Carolina this year, and it's hard to determine exactly why. Sure, we put them at #15 based on last year's 8-4 result, returning almost 80% of production, and very solid recruiting lately. But the AP puts them in the top 10 seemingly because they're the flavor of the month. Believe the hype? On offense it's justified as they scored over 40 points seven times last year. The defense needs help though if they want to be a top ten squad. Schedule: Here's a good reason to put UNC in the top ten: their easy schedule. The Tar Heels play Georgia State and Wofford in strictly non-conference games; they do travel to Notre Dame but we see that as a win even in South Bend (very close, though). In the ACC the key is that UNC avoids Clemson and gets Miami at home. We don't give them the win over Miami but it puts it in play. Hope: 11-1 isn't bad but 12-0 and a shot at Clemson would be better. We don't think they can beat the Tigers but they might get the chance to try. More likely the split the Notre Dame and Miami games, winning one and losing the other. - Mississippi Rebels (SEC #4; West #3) AP: #(27)
2020 Rank: #30 (5-5) Off: #9 Def: #97
2021 Projection: 10-2 Off: #3 Def: #77
Recruiting (20-21): #22
Verdict: Ole Miss had a mixed 2020; they didn't beat a good team until upsetting Indiana in the Outback Bowl. Their offense shined, scoring 40+ points five times, but the defense gave up that total five times as well. Most of the offense is back and even more of the defense, and recruiting is top 25 level commensurate with SEC membership. Schedule: Ole Miss opens against Louisville in Atlanta, then hosts Austin Peay and Tulane before the SEC starts. That's when they travel to Alabama and pick up their first loss. We take them against Arkansas, Tennessee, and LSU but not Auburn on the road. They have their only non-conference test against Liberty (10-1 last year) but we see the Rebels 4-0 outside of the SEC. Finishing up, we give them the nod vs. Texas A&M at home for a 6-2 SEC finish, 10-2 overall. Hope: They'll need a much better defense if they want to do any better than 10-2, and regardless beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa still seems out of reach this year. - Western Michigan Broncos (MAC #3; West #3) AP: NR
2020 Rank: #23 (4-2) Off: #5 Def: #89
2021 Projection: 11-1 (12-1) Off: #2 Def: #60
Recruiting (20-21): #86
Verdict: MAC team #3 is Western Michigan; they were 4-2 last year with losses to Eastern Michigan and Ball State, and wins over newly-ranked Toledo and Central Michigan. They averaged 42 points a game which gave them a top 5 offensive ranking which jumps to #2 in the nation with 80% of production returning. The defense improves even more—it has to, they gave up 34ppg—returning 96% and moving into respectable territory. Schedule: Each MAC team has its "moment" when they will be exposed or shock a national power; for Western Michigan, it's the road game at Ann Arbor. If the Broncos beat the Wolverines, the reaction will probably be "Michigan sucks this year" which might be true. If WMU goes on to beat Pitt and San Jose State to open 4-0, it will be hard to ignore them. On the other hand, a 1-3 start is possible too and that would expose last year's MAC fluke for what it likely was! In any case, on to the MAC schedule where Western Michigan gets Ball State and Central Michigan at home, and could therefore end up 7-1 in conference with a loss to Toledo. They still could end up in the MAC title game though due to the convoluted Mid-American tie-breaker. Hope: If they make the MAC title game they should win but 12-1 is clearly the best they can hope for. Beating Toledo in the regular season is a possibility, but winning all six of their tough games is a little too much to ask. In fact, a 6-6 finish would be nothing to be ashamed of. - Central Michigan Chippewas (MAC #4; West #4) AP: NR
2020 Rank: #29 (3-3) Off: #25 Def: #40
2021 Projection: 9-3 Off: #21 Def: #15
Recruiting (20-21): #101
Verdict: The 4th and last of our overachieving MAC teams (all MAC West, too), the Chippawas return almost 90% of their offense and over 95% of their defense to leap above their already-inflated figures from 2020's weird truncated season, where they lost 3 games—to the teams ranked above them this year. So at least this madness is somewhat self-consistent. Schedule: The opener at Missouri will immediately tell whether Central Michigan is anything special this year, and if that doesn't do it the LSU game will. Our rankings favor the Chippewas in both; I have a feeling the will be brought back down to earth in one if not both, but we officially predict a 4-0 start for CMU along with more reasonable win picks vs. Robert Morris and Florida International at home. In the MAC they play Western Michigan and Ball State on the road, so all three teams above them beat them for a 5-3 finish in the West. Hope: Really, even if they lose to both Missouri and LSU a 9-3 finish isn't off the table as they aren't far removed from the top three MAC teams. - Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (Sun Belt #1; East #1) AP: #22
2020 Rank: #25 (11-1) Off: #29 Def: #27
2021 Projection: 12-0 (13-0) Off: #25 Def: #13
Recruiting (20-21): #88
Verdict: With around 90% of production returning to borderline top 25 offense and defense, Coastal Carolina is set to be better than last year's 11-1 team. According to the AP they fall from last year's #14 finish to #22 which is just wrong, but I understand the sentiment—there's no guarantee they'll replicate last year's success even if they're more talented. Schedule: Nothing on their schedule should prevent them from matching—or even exceeding—last year's run. The Citadel, Kansas, and UMass are jokes. Buffalo will be their only test; the Bulls might have beat the Chanticleers in Buffalo last year but they won't be nearly as good in '21. The Sun Belt should be an 8-0 breeze especially since Coastal Carolina won't face Louisiana-Lafayette until the Sun Belt championship game. Last year's contest was cancelled and this year's winner will be determined by home field advantage. With two 8-0 teams, the higher-ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings will host the game. That should be Coastal Carolina, but if ULL has managed to go undefeated—beating Texas—they'll get the nod. Hope: In any case, if the Chanticleers go 13-0 they've got a great chance to be the Group of Five New Year's Day bowl rep. They're our projected favorite. - UCLA Bruins (Pac-12 #2; South #2) AP: #(42)
2020 Rank: #48 (3-4) Off: #27 Def: #76
2021 Projection: 11-1 Off: #19 Def: #50
Recruiting (20-21): #30
Verdict: Here's another surprise pick: UCLA in the top 25 (they did get a few votes in the AP poll). The Bruins were mediocre in 2020 and haven't been good for a while so there's a reason no one's hyping them. But they were within a touchdown per game of going 7-0 last year and they're more than a touchdown better this year as they return 95% on offense and 90% on defense per Bill Connelly. That puts the offense firmly in the top 25 and the defense becomes at least competant. Schedule: The Bruins should handle Hawaii pretty easily at home, but it's the LSU game that will determine whether our take is correct. Most places rank LSU in the top 25 and put UCLA at #45, but we have it the other way around. Fresno State makes for a 3-0 start, then comes the Pac-12 where only Arizona State beats them, at least in our scenario. Hope: Beating ASU is pretty far off; we've already given UCLA every benefit of the doubt. - Cincinnati Bearcats (American #1) AP: #8
2020 Rank: #18 (9-1) Off: #33 Def: #11
2021 Projection: 10-2 (11-2) Off: #38 Def: #19
Recruiting (20-21): #44
Verdict: I'm a little surprised the AP kept Cincy at #8, when they usually take any excuse to drop a non-Power team at least a few notches. We think Cincy was a bit overrated last year and they lose over a quarter of their production on both offense and defense. And it's not like they're setting the recruiting world on fire, either. Schedule: The Bearcats host Miami of Ohio and Murray State and should be 2-0 when they travel to Indiana and Notre Dame. Here's where they make their run for the playoff: win both of those and they're an early favorite. But we have the Hoosiers ranked higher and Notre Dame good enough to win at home. Cincy enters the American conference season at 2-2. There, no one can touch the Bearcats home or away, and they finish up 8-0 and win the AAC title game too. Hope: Win those two early games and who knows what happens. - Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten #5; East #3) AP: #19
2020 Rank: #28 (4-5) Off: #31 Def: #28
2021 Projection: 7-5 Off: #34 Def: #28
Recruiting (20-21): #17
Verdict: Like so many big-name teams the AP has given Penn State a pass on its 4-5 outing in 2020, preferring to harken back to the 11-2 days of 2019 when ranking the Lions. We don't do that—we use last year as the starting point, but even that 4-5 team ranked #28. They return a reasonable amount of talent and good recruiting makes up the rest. Schedule: Penn State's slate is pretty wild. The start at Wisconsin, which should set them back to 0-1. Then they host Ball State—you know, top 25 team Ball State? And battle to a multi-overtime loss according to our numbers. 0-2. Then Auburn comes to town and the Nittany Lions finally get a W. Then comes Villanova and they even their record at 2-2. The rest of the season is all Big Ten, which adds losses to Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State for a 7-5 finish on a wild ride that ends with four straight wins. Hope: You can argue that giving them a loss to Ball State is ridiculous, but we gave them the Auburn game; 7-5 is not an implausible result against this schedule, though it certainly could end up better with some luck. - Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big Twelve #3) AP: #(26)
2020 Rank: #20 (8-3) Off: #26 Def: #18
2021 Projection: 9-3 Off: #41 Def: #21
Recruiting (20-21): #32
Verdict: The AP poll basically agrees with this ranking as they make the Cowboys the #1 team in "others receiving votes" or unofficially #26 in the Top 25. Our ranking basically leave last year's 8-3 team where they were, though losing 1/3 of their offensive production knocks them down a few rungs. Schedule: The Cowboy schedule starts at Cupcake (Missouri State), moves to Warmup (Tulsa) and progresses to Challenge (Boise State on the road) but Oklahoma State should emerge 3-0. In the Big Twelve logic would dictate a 7-2 run with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa State, but they play Texas on the road so we have them 6-3. Hope: If they could have one of the three losses turned to a win, of course it would be Oklahoma at home. - Auburn Tigers (SEC #5; West #4) AP: #(30)
2020 Rank: #26 (6-5) Off: #45 Def: #15
2021 Projection: 8-4 Off: #50 Def: #23
Recruiting (20-21): #11
Verdict: Auburn had a middling 2020 but they were actually pretty good especially on defense, losing to the better SEC teams and Northwestern (and South Carolina but let's ignore that one). They return enough talent to tread water and with the addition of solid recruiting over the past two years they float up into the top 25. Schedule: Akron and Alabama State will offer little resistance, but when the Tigers travel to Penn State things get interesting, with the Lions probably taking the win at home in an early SEC/Big Ten comparison. Georgia State is their third home victim. In the SEC Auburn has its usual problem: the West is tough as nails. Luckily they get Ole Miss at home, and they should also beat LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. Hope: There are too many clear losses to expect a title run, but if they had to pick one game you know it would be beating Alabama at home. - Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (Sun Belt #2; West #1) AP: #23
2020 Rank: #36 (10-1) Off: #48 Def: #43
2021 Projection: 11-1 (11-2) Off: #31 Def: #16
Recruiting (20-21): #73
Verdict: We have to give credit again to the AP for recognizing Louisiana Lafayette when most of the time Group of Five conference teams that have a good year are ignored the next. We think ULL is better than last year's 10-1 team by quite a bit, as evidenced by their >90% returning offense and >95% returning defense. Schedule: ULL opens at Texas and we almost pick them to win, but the home advantage gives the Longhorns a one-point win. They'll beat Nicholls State at home, as well as Ohio—the MAC's not that good. Their final non-conference game? Liberty, on the road, in November. We take the Cajuns handily there as Liberty doesn't crack our top 50. In the Sun Belt ULL is 2nd best, but the Cajuns should go 8-0 as they don't play Coastal Carolina. Fine, all the more buildup to the championship game. Hope: The Cajuns could beat Texas to go undefeated, and if they do that they'd probably have home advantage against Coastal Carolina. If they go 13-0 you have to wonder how far away from the College Football Playoff they'd be.
Comments