2021 Pre-season #76-100

76. Colorado Buffaloes (Pac-12 #9; South #5)
    2020 Rank: #76 (4-2)  Off: #59  Def: #85
    2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #71  Def: #78
    Recruiting (20-21): #50
    Verdict: The Buffs stay at #76 as their offense takes a dip while the defense upgrades. Recruiting, poor for the Big Twelve, is good enough to keep them from slipping but not good enough to push them forward (some consistency at head coach will probably help). Schedule: The Buffs play three home games in the pre-conference season; they should beat Northern Colorado but Texas A&M is too tough and Minnesota looks very improved. In the Pac-12 look for wins over Arizona and Oregon State, and since they get Washington at home that should be a close win. The Buffs are #5 in the South and the top four teams in the conference are from the South unfortunately. Hope: California should be a close road game, but it's hard to see where a sixth win and bowl eligibility comes from. They'd probably need to beat either USC at home or Oregon on the road.
77. Georgia State Panthers (Sun Belt #5; East #4)
    2020 Rank: #89 (6-4)  Off: #51  Def: #103
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #28  Def: #89
    Recruiting (20-21): #110
    Verdict: With almost the entire offense back a strong unit might become nearly a top 25 force; defense, too should improve but still not be average for the FBS. Overall the team could be a touchdown better than least season. Schedule: The Panthers host Army, and we think they can win that one, as well as Charlotte two weeks later. North Carolina and Auburn are both on the road and both very tough games to win. In the Sun Belt Georgia State avoids Louisiana-Lafayette and plays Troy at home, pretty much their best possible schedule. They likely lose only to Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina, finishing 6-2 and 8-4 overall. Hope: Like we said, they got the best schedule they can hope for; they have three very solid losses on the slate, with Appalachian State at home being the best shot at a 9th win. If they do that, they would play for the Sun Belt title championship.  
78. East Carolina Pirates (American #6)
    2020 Rank: #99 (3-6)  Off: #81  Def: #107
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #66  Def: #70
    Recruiting (20-21): #82
    Verdict: We're looking for big improvements at East Carolina both on offense and defense where about 90% of production returns, turning mediocre units into reasonably solid platoons. Schedule: The Pirates probably don't beat Appalachian State in Charlotte or Marshall on the road (thought that one should be close), but South Carolina and certainly Charleston Southern might go their way. In the American Athletic there's a logjam of teams in the middle and home vs. away is crucial. The Pirates should beat Tulane, South Florida, and Temple (all at home), and Navy on the road. Hope: Road losses to UCF, Memphis, and Houston will be competitive.
79. Kansas State Wildcats (Big Twelve #8)
    2020 Rank: #69 (4-6)  Off: #61  Def: #67
    2021 Projection: 3-9  Off: #46  Def: #98
    Recruiting (20-21): #54
    Verdict: K-State was about average on offense and defense last year, and this season the offense should be pretty good while the defense takes a bigger step back. Schedule: We favor K-State over Stanford in the Arlington opener; likewise they should beat Southern Illinois but not Nevada. In the Big Twelve K-State ranks 8th out of 10 teams, playing both of the teams below them on the road. They should still beat Kansas but probably not Texas Tech for a 1-8 finish. Hope: If the Wildcats are as unpredictable as last season (losing to Arkansas State, beating Oklahoma, starting 4-1 and finishing 0-5) then getting three more wins for bowl eligibility is definitely on the table.
80. San Diego State Aztecs (Mtn West #6; West #4)
    2020 Rank: #64 (4-4)  Off: #100  Def: #20
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #103  Def: #43
    Recruiting (20-21): #77
    Verdict: SDSU loses about 30% across the board in production but with the offense already poor, it's the solid defense that takes a hit. Schedule: The Aztecs open hosting New Mexico State, an almost-certain win, and they probably win at Arizona too. Utah probably beats them in San Diego, while Towson should give the Aztecs a 3-1 start. In the Mountain West they should go 4-4, probably beating New Mexico, Air Force, Fresno State, and UNLV. Hope: No game on their schedule is that far out of reach, so upsets are in play all year.
81. Memphis Tigers (American #7)
    2020 Rank: #92 (8-3)  Off: #87  Def: #92
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #94  Def: #54
    Recruiting (20-21): #57
    Verdict: We see a dip in offense (where <60% of production returns) and a great leap forward on defense where 93% returns. Decent recruiting adds to the boost. But will that translate to better than last year's record? Schedule: Memphis should win three of four in the non-conference season, beating Nicholls State, Arkansas State on the road, and edging UTSA at home while falling to Mississippi State at home. In the American conference, it's all about where the games are played. Memphis should beat Temple and Navy regardless of location, but wins over SMU, East Carolina, and Tulane are due to playing at home. That should yield a 5-3 finish, not bad for the #7 team. Hope: Houston, UCF, and Tulsa are not much better than Memphis, though all three are road games. They avoid Cincinnati which means an undefeated conference season is not impossible.
82. UAB Blazers (CUSA #1; West #1)
    2020 Rank: #71 (6-3)  Off: #80  Def: #55
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #77  Def: #57
    Recruiting (20-21): #104
    Verdict: Returning production is about average for the Blazers, but poor recruiting doesn't add much. Still, UAB might be the best team in the CUSA. Schedule: Unfortunately the Blazers go on the road to face the 2nd and 3rd best teams in their conference, meaning they might not get to the championship game at 6-2. In non-conference play the opener vs. Jacksonville State looks like a win but the Blazer probably lose at Georgia and Tulane, and at home to Liberty. Hope: As the "best" team in the conference, they'd just have to beat UTSA on the road to get to the championship game where they could claim their crown. 
83. Louisville Cardinals (ACC #10; Atlantic #5)
    2020 Rank: #50 (4-7)  Off: #47  Def: #57
    2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #57  Def: #100
    Recruiting (20-21): #43
    Verdict: Louisville takes a 30% hit on offense and a bigger one on defense, dumping the Cards from #50 all the way to #83 overall. Schedule: The Cardinals host a much-improved Mississippi team in the opener, so that doesn't look like a win. Eastern Kentucky should be a win, and they've got a shot at UCF at home but probably come up short. They might, however, edge Kentucky at home in the season finale. That split would put them at 2-2 outside the ACC, where we see them beating Florida State, Syracuse, and Duke. Hope: One more win gets them to 6-6; the UCF game isn't out of reach by any means, and Virginia at home is another coin flip they could win.
84. Oregon State Beavers (Pac-12 #10; North #5)
    2020 Rank: #85 (2-5)  Off: #58  Def: #96
    2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #44  Def: #96
    Recruiting (20-21): #81
    Verdict: There should be improvement on offense where almost 90% of production returns, but the defense may remain poor and very bad recruiting for a Power Five member keeps the Beavers stuck in the mud. Schedule: Oregon State probably can't count on beating Purdue on the road, but they should be able to (just barely!) overcome a visiting Hawaii squad and beat Idaho too. In the Pac-12 we'll give them Washington at home (again, just barely!) and Stanford for two wins. Hope: We're already giving them two close games over better teams because they're at home; anything more will require a true upset.
85. Marshall Thundering Herd (CUSA #2; East #1)
    2020 Rank: #62 (7-3)  Off: #97  Def: #23
    2021 Projection: 11-1 (12-1)  Off: #85  Def: #48
    Recruiting (20-21): #109
    Verdict: Marshall defense was top 25 quality last year as they held every team they played to 22 point or less and four to 10 or fewer. That may be a thing of the past as they lose over 30% of defensive production. The offense could get a bit better and it might be enough for the Herd to win the CUSA championship. Schedule: Marshall could start 3-0 with wins at Navy and over North Carolina Central and East Carolina at home, though the latter will be close. They travel to Appalachian State, a likely loss. In the CUSA they might run the table as they face UAB at home. Hope: Winning the East would put them in the CUSA championship game, probably against UTSA, and the Herd may end up CUSA champions despite their apparent decline.
86. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC #12; East #5)
    2020 Rank: #68 (3-7)  Off: #77  Def: #48
    2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #88  Def: #81
    Recruiting (20-21): #16
    Verdict: It looks like another (re)building year for the Vols as they lose about 40% of production on both sides of the ball, leading to big drops especially on defense. Overall they plummet from #68 to #86 and it would be much worse without good recruiting, especially their top ten 2020 class. Schedule: The non-conference schedule is manageable; they host Bowling Green, Pitt, and Tennessee Tech early, then South Alabama on November. We give them three wins of the four (minus Pitt) but the SEC is not as kind to the Vols. Luckily they play Vanderbilt and South Carolina so they can get two more wins. Hope: To reach bowl eligibility they just need one more; Missouri would be a win at home but they'll have to beat the Tigers on the road.
87. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big Twelve #9)
    2020 Rank: #80 (4-6)  Off: #50  Def: #93
    2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #54  Def: #102
    Recruiting (20-21): #64
    Verdict: Texas Tech loses about 25% of production across the board leading to declines on both offense and defense, and middling recruiting doesn't pick up the slack. Schedule: The Raiders should win two of three early as they open at Houston but come home for Stephen F Austin and Florida International. Ranked 9th in the Big Twelve they should beat Kansas and could get a 2nd win as they play Kansas State at home. Hope: Anything more than four wins requires getting some upsets.
88. UTSA Roadrunners (CUSA #3; West #2)
    2020 Rank: #100 (7-5)  Off: #106  Def: #88
    2021 Projection: 10-2 (10-3)  Off: #93  Def: #59
    Recruiting (20-21): #84
    Verdict: The Roadrunners get a big boost on both sides of the ball as 90+% of their production returns and even recruiting helps them improve over last year's 7-5 team. Schedule: We don't think UTSA will beat Illinois or Memphis on the road, but Lamar and UNLV at home are fairly sure bets. The CUSA could be theirs for the taking; they rank #2 in the West but get UAB and Rice at home and avoid Marshall, giving them a shot at an 8-0 run. Hope: The Roadrunners could win the West and end up in the CUSA championship (probably vs. Marshall).
89. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten #14; East #7)
    2020 Rank: #77 (2-5)  Off: #79  Def: #71
    2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #69  Def: #104
    Recruiting (20-21): #45
    Verdict: The Spartans were a disappointing 2-5 last year despite wins over Michigan and Northwestern. The offense is back for the most part and should improve but losses on defense sink the team's prospects and consistently mediocre recruiting can't bail them out. Schedule: The season kicks off at Northwestern and the Spartans probably don't get the win this year; in fact, we don't see a win in the Big Ten for our #14 ranked Spartans. They host Youngstown State and Western Kentucky and those should be wins, and travel to Miami for a probable loss. Hope: It's unlikely MSU will go 0-9 in Big Ten play, as they'll get at least a couple of upsets like they did last season.
90. SMU Mustangs (American #8)
    2020 Rank: #84 (7-3)  Off: #36  Def: #106
    2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #56  Def: #106
    Recruiting (20-21): #63
    Verdict: SMU scored a lot last year but allowed a lot too, and they lose about 40% of their offensive production. That could mean less scoring while their defense remains just as bad. Schedule: The early slate is forgiving, with probable wins over Abilene Christian and North Texas at home and Louisiana Tech on the road. TCU is not as forgiving, nor is the American where we only see wins over South Florida and Navy. This means SMU could start the season 5-1 and end up 5-7. Hope: There are six teams ranked just above SMU in the American, so wins over anyone other than Cincinnati are possible, especially the home games vs. Tulane, UCF, and Tulsa.
91. Fresno State Bulldogs (Mtn West #7; West #5)
    2020 Rank: #98 (3-3)  Off: #85  Def: #102
    2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #73  Def: #86
    Recruiting (20-21): #83
    Verdict: The Bulldogs see improvement on both offense and defense as about 85% of production returns. Schedule: Fresno State plays Oregon and UCLA from the Pac-12, both on the road. But they get UConn and Cal Poly at home which should see them start 2-2. They draw the worst possible Mountain West schedule however, playing all six teams that rank ahead of them; we have the Bulldogs beating UNLV and New Mexico to finish 2-6. Hope: They need upsets, pure and simple. Beating Oregon or UCLA would be great; so would moving up in the MWC pecking order.
92. Army Black Knights (Independent #4)
    2020 Rank: #78 (9-3)  Off: #102  Def: #41
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #102  Def: #49
    Recruiting (20-21): #115
    Verdict: Army was 9-3 last year but counted among their wins Abilene Christian, The Citadel, and Mercer, as well as 0-10 ULM. They did beat beat Navy and Air Force but they won't be quite as good this year and the schedule is tougher. Schedule: There are some easy picking on the slate, including Western Kentucky, UConn, Bucknell, and UMass, so despite going from three FCS teams to one, they play some of the worst FBS teams. But they also have Wisconsin, Wake Forest, and Liberty to deal with. We pick Army over Navy again this year while the game vs. #93 Air Force is a tossup that we give Army for their 6th win.  Hope: They need to beat Air Force. The Knights also play two MAC teams (Miami, Ball State) which we rate high, but if they aren't as good those could be wins, too.
93. Air Force Falcons (Mtn West #8; Mountain #3)
    2020 Rank: #63 (3-3) Off: #99  Def: #19
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #109  Def: #45
    Recruiting (20-21): #106
    Verdict: Air Force loses a big chunk of production on both offense and defense and recruiting can't make up the difference, leading to a big drop from #63 to #93. Note that the armed service academies tend to have a lot of turnover and recruiting ratings don't mean as much. Schedule: Air Force hosts Lafayette as well as Florida Atlantic and both should be wins. They travel to Navy in game two and probably don't win that one, and Army in Arlington is a coin flip game that we just barely have Air Force losing. In the Mountain West the Falcons could go 4-4 with wins over Utah State, New Mexico, Colorado State, and UNLV. Hope: Army beat Air Force 10-7 last year at West Point, and this year's neutral field game could be even closer. There's no reason Air Force can't get the win and with it more bowl insurance.
94. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC #11; Coastal #6)
    2020 Rank: #96 (3-7)  Off: #88  Def: #98
    2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #80  Def: #103
    Recruiting (20-21): #35
    Verdict: The Yellow Jackets lose an average amount, just over 20% on offense and defense, which leaves their offense looking a touch better, the defense a bit worse, and the team about the same overall. Recruiting is a (relatively) bright spot for the future, particularly the 2020 class. Schedule: The first two games are winnable but we rank the MAC teams really high, Northern Illinois included, and if that's right Georgia Tech will have to wait for Kennesaw State for their first win. In the ACC they avoid all the worst teams except for Duke, meaning they could go 1-7. The year ends with contests at Notre Dame and vs. Georgia. Hope: Win the opener vs. Northern Illinois, then get some upsets. And hope that Geoff Collins' system is clicking in its third year.
95. Syracuse Orange (ACC #12; Atlantic #6)
    2020 Rank: #97 (1-10)  Off: #112  Def: #70
    2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #108  Def: #64
    Recruiting (20-21): #59
    Verdict: The Orange return just over 80% of production across the board, leading to small gains, and recruiting helps a bit though it's pretty sub-par for a Power Five school. Syracuse only won one game last year (Georgia Tech) and ranks near the bottom of the ACC again. Schedule: Normally playing Ohio, Rutgers, and Liberty might mean three wins but we have them losing all three as they travel to Ohio, Rutgers looks decent, and Liberty is downright good. That leaves Albany as the sole non-conference win, and in conference we don't see any wins. The Orange don't play Georgia Tech this year and travel to Florida State. Hope: A few more early wins and beating FSU would be great, but still might leave the Orange winless in the 2nd half of the season.
96. Rice Owls (CUSA #4; West #3)
    2020 Rank: #93 (2-3) Off: #120  Def: #32
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #120  Def: #34
    Recruiting: #93
    Verdict: Rice looks about the same as last year, but last year may be misleading due to lack of games played. The Owl offense might not be as bad as advertised, nor the defense quite as good, but that's what we get. Schedule: The Owls play four area teams in September, Arkansas, Houston, Texas, and Texas Southern. The last one should be a win. In the CUSA the schedule is much friendlier and the Owls could go 6-2 with road losses to UAB and UTSA. Hope: With their toughest opponents on the road a 6-2 conference finish and bowl bid might be the best-case scenario for Rice.
97. Florida State Seminoles (ACC #13; Atlantic #7)
    2020 Rank: #95 (3-6)  Off: #78  Def: #100
    2021 Projection: 3-9  Off: #68  Def: #113
    Recruiting (20-21): #20
    Verdict: It looks like the rebuilding continues at FSU in 2021; they offense looks better but the defense could slip further, and the team overall looks much the same as last year. Recruiting has been top 25 level the past two years which bodes well for the future. Schedule: The 'Noles open against Notre Dame and finish the season at Florida, but two other games should be wins as they host Jacksonville State (whom they beat 41-24 last year) and hapless UMass. In the ACC we rank them lower than every team other than Duke whom they don't play, but they should beat Syracuse in Tallahassee.  Hope: Recruiting. If the players from the last two years step up it could make for a whole different team, especially by the end of the season. 
98. Stanford Cardinal (Pac-12 #11; North #6)
    2020 Rank: #79 (4-2)  Off: #76  Def: #72
    2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #101 Def: #90
    Recruiting (20-21): #28
    Verdict: Stanford wasn't great last year—they won four games by a total of 10 points—and they lose a big chunk of talent, including over 50% on offense, which dumps them to #101 on that side of the ball. The defense slips a lot, too, while recruiting (especially a solid 2020 class) keeps them from dropping even farther. Still, they end up last in the North in our projections. Schedule: Stanford's non-conference slate starts against Kansas State in Arlington, heads to Vanderbilt, then ends hosting Notre Dame in the season finale. The first two games are winnable, but we give K-State the edge. In the Pac-12 Stanford ranks lower than all the teams in the North and doesn't play Arizona, so they might go 0-8. This looks like a rebuilding year. Hope: The opener in Arlington is winnable, and the Pac-12 is a tough conference to pick due to last year's truncated schedule. There will be wins available, and Stanford normally gets a few upsets, too.
99. Florida Atlantic Owls (CUSA #5; East #2)
    2020 Rank: #105 (5-4)  Off: #126  Def: #54
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #123  Def: #36
    Recruiting (20-21): #74
    Verdict: Last year Florida Atlantic held three teams to single digits in 9 games, but were held to 10 or fewer points in four games themselves. The Owls return almost all of their offense and most of the defense, too; the O shouldn't be quite as awful, while the defense might be very good. Schedule: The opener at Florida isn't promising, but the next three could all be wins as they host Georgia Southern and Fordham, then travel to Air Force. We give them the home games. In the CUSA the only losses we see are UAB and Marshall so the Owls should easily be bowl eligible. Hope: A really good season is possible if the Owls can upset Air Force on the road, and in conference winning the East is not out of the question as they get Marshall at home.
100. Colorado State Rams (Mtn West #9; Mountain #4)
     2020 Rank: #108 (1-3)  Off: #95  Def: #113
     2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #91  Def: #83
     Recruiting (20-21): #97
     Verdict: The Rams get a boost on defense mainly, enough to put them just inside the top 100, as they return over 90% on that side of the ball. Schedule: The Rams kick off the season with two tough but winnable games: South Dakota State and Vanderbilt. The Jackrabbits might be better than the Rams, and we rank Vanderbilt just a few places lower at #103, but we give the edge to Colorado State at home in both. Realistically they might split the two, and road games at Toledo and Iowa look like losses. In the Mountain West we see wins over New Mexico and Utah State. 4-8 would match 2019's record. Hope: The Rams' 2020 season consisted of just four games, three on the road; if that small sample gave a poor impression, then Colorado State could be a lot better. But either way, winning both of their first two games would put them on the road toward more wins.