2021 Pre-season #51-75

51. North Carolina State Wolfpack (ACC #6; Atlantic #3)
    2020 Rank: #66 (8-4)  Off: #55  Def: #64
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #65  Def: #52
    Recruiting (20-21): #41
    Verdict: The Wolfpack drops on offense but the defensive gain offsets it; in fact, in points it exceeds the offense's loss by quite a bit, boosting the team overall. Schedule: South Florida should be a pretty easy opener, followed by a very tough road game at Mississippi State and a gimme vs. Furman. And of course they play Clemson as their first ACC game so the Wolfpack will probably be just 2-2 in September. They should beat Louisiana Tech after that, but they go on the road vs. Boston College and Miami so they could start 0-3 in the ACC. Their conference schedule is tough; we give them Louisville, Florida State, and Syracuse to finish 3-5, and 6-6 overall. Hope: They need some upsets to break up the early losses or discouragement might set in.
52. Nevada Wolf Pack (Mtn West #3; West #2)
    2020 Rank: #72 (7-2)  Off: #71  Def: #65
    2021 Projection: 11-1 (11-2)  Off: #52  Def: #42
    Recruiting (20-21): #105
    Verdict: The Wolf Pack return over 90% of production on both offense and defense and are generously rewarded in our system, jumping around 20 spots in both measures and exactly 20 spots overall. If not for poor recruiting the jump would be even bigger, as it's hard to move up too much when your freshmen aren't in the top 100. Schedule: The opener at California will be a good test for how much Nevada has improved (for Cal, too). We think the Wolf Pack edge past the Bears. Idaho State should be an easy win afterwards, and Kansas State another good road test (that they should pass). New Mexico State is another cupcake and Nevada could be 4-0 in the non-conference season. Boise State and San Jose State are ranked ahead of Nevada in the Mountain West but they play San Jose State at home. Boise State might be Nevada's only loss (and they would get a rematch in the MWC title game). Hope: Let's hope moving their practices to Stanford (due to air quality issues in Reno) doesn't disrupt the team too much, as they have a chance for a great season. That said, I think we've given them enough close games; an undefeated season is a bit of a stretch.
53. Oregon Ducks (Pac-12 #5; North #1)  AP#11
    2020 Rank: #46 (4-3)  Off: #39  Def: #59
    2021 Projection: 9-3 (9-4)  Off: #48  Def: #80
    Recruiting (20-21): #7
    Verdict: The Ducks were 4-3 last year, look worse this year with a worse offense and worse defense. Yet they still might play for the Pac-12 title since the North subdivision is so weak. Also, having top ten recruiting over the last two years doesn't hurt, and makes up for most of the 30% production the Ducks lose across the board. Schedule: The opener at Fresno State is a warmup for what comes next: a trip to Ohio State. We don't think Oregon wins that one, but they'll take out their frustrations on Stony Brook the week after. Can the Ducks reach the Pac-12 title game? They draw UCLA and Utah—both on the road—from the South which might mess up their plans, but 6-2 will probably get the job done considering they face their main North rivals (Washington State and California) at home. Hope: A 9-3 finish won't put them in the playoff, but an upset win in the championship game would take the Ducks to a major bowl. That would be expected of a team that AP ranks at #11 in their pre-season poll.
54. Appalachian State Mountaineers (Sun Belt #3; East #2)
    2020 Rank: #55 (9-3)  Off: #74  Def: #35
    2021 Projection: 9-3  Off: #78  Def: #25
    Recruiting (20-21): #78
    Verdict: Last year the Mountaineers went 9-3, losing to 7-3 Marshall, 11-1 Coastal Carolina, and 10-1 Louisiana-Lafayette. They're just as good this year, with an even stronger defense offsetting some losses on offense. Schedule: The Mountaineers host East Carolina, then travel to Miami; after hosting Elon they should be 2-1 when they rematch Marshall at home, and 3-1 afterwards. They probably won't beat Coastal Carolina at home nor Louisiana-Lafayette on the road, but they should win every other Sun Belt game. Hope: We don't see a big chance of upsetting Miami on the road; beating the Chanticleers would pit them against the Ragin' Cajuns for the Sun Belt title.
55. Boston College Eagles (ACC #7; Atlantic #4)
    2020 Rank: #60 (6-5)  Off: #69  Def: #51
    2021 Projection: 10-2  Off: #51  Def: #67
    Recruiting (20-21): #49
    Verdict: The Eagles are basically the same team they were last year, with the offense and defense ranks switched. That's because they return a lot on offense and a lot less on D. A top 40 2021 recruiting class pulls the team up overall. Schedule: BC knows how to ease into the football season: Start with Colgate (FCS), progress to UMass (#129), visit Temple (#124), then see if you're ready for Missouri (#71) at home. A 4-0 start would be well-deserved, I'd say. Trouble is, the very next game is at Clemson so the bubble is going to burst. But the Eagles get NC State at home, they avoid Miami, UNC, and Pitt, and should beat Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and FSU. A 6-2 ACC finish would be their best in quite a while (ever, I think). Hope: We won't suggest upsetting Clemson, but maybe at 10-1 they're a bit fired up when they host Wake Forest?
56. Liberty Flames (Independent #3)
    2020 Rank: #70 (10-1)  Off: #52  Def: #79
    2021 Projection: 10-2  Off: #32  Def: #63
    Recruiting (20-21): #99
    Verdict: Three years ago Liberty was just joining the FBS and was the kind of team you'd schedule to guarantee a win; that backfired on some folks last year. Though they finished 10-1 Liberty only ranked #70 in Strength as they played a weak schedule and barely won most of their games; still, they beat Coastal Carolina and they'll only be better this year as most of the offense and defense are back leading to a generous upgrade. Schedule: The Flames play another easy slate with a few challenges at the end. If they get past Troy on the road in game two as expected they could start 9-0 with wins over Campbell, Old Dominion, Syracuse, UAB, MTSU, ULM, North Texas, and UMass. Note that three of our bottom six are included there plus an FCS team; in all, six of the nine rank #110 or lower. Finally in November Liberty travels to Mississippi and will have to earn that one; we don't expect they'll come away with a win there or at home vs. Louisiana-Lafayette the next week. They end hosting Army. Hope: A 9-0 start is pretty hopeful, but they started 8-0 last year. And they were a point away from undefeated with last year's team. 
57. West Virginia Mountaineers (Big Twelve #7)
    2020 Rank: #37 (6-4)  Off: #89  Def: #13
    2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #83  Def: #47
    Recruiting (20-21): #39
    Verdict: West Virginia's fall from #37 to #57 is almost entirely on their defense, which loses over 40% of its key players. Only three of ten teams topped 21 points vs. WVa last season while the offense topped 27 points only thrice itself. Schedule: West Virginia opens at Maryland who is going to be much improved this year, followed by Long Island (easy win), and Virginia Tech who we have rated almost exactly the same as the Mountaineers, who should win the home game. The Big Twelve starts at Oklahoma and we see only three wins (Texas Tech, Kansas State, Kansas) for West Virginia. Hope: Obviously they'll want to pick up a game somewhere to get to six wins; Baylor is probably more likely than Maryland for that.
58. Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC #8; Coastal #4)
    2020 Rank: #45 (5-6)  Off: #37  Def: #61
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #49  Def: #66
    Recruiting (20-21): #61
    Verdict: The Hokies suffer larger-than-average personnel losses that dump the team out of the top 50; the damage is particularly harsh on the offensive side and very "average" recruiting only reinforces their fate. Schedule: The Hokies start the season at North Carolina, a likely loss, before embarking on a four-game non-conference slate. They should handle MTSU at home as well as Richmond, but the road game at West Virginia and especially at home vs. Notre Dame look like losses. After the UNC loss VT's next ACC game is Pittsburgh which could be a close home win; Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and Duke should be victories as well, but unfortunately they get Boston College and Virginia on the road. Hope: West Virginia is a close call that could bounce the Hokies' way, as is Virginia.
59. Purdue Boilermakers (Big Ten #12; West #6)
    2020 Rank: #40 (2-4)  Off: #30  Def: #62
    2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #26  Def: #95
    Recruiting (20-21): #55
    Verdict: Purdue drops a lot after ranking #40 despite a mediocre 2-4 2020 (consisting of a win over Iowa and four losses by an average of a touchdown). Purdue's offense returns a lot and moves up while the defense is dismantled and drops from average to probably dismal. Schedule: Purdue has Oregon State at home and UConn on the road to offset a trip to Notre Dame in week three. That should make them 2-1 when they embark on the Big Ten schedule which isn't friendly to them. They probably won't beat Iowa this year but should still beat Illinois and even Michigan State. That's a 2-7 run for a 4-8 overall finish. Hope: Maybe they'll beat Iowa and and someone else and be bowl-eligible?
60. Wyoming Cowboys (Mtn West #4; Mountain #2)
    2020 Rank: #81 (2-4)  Off: #108  Def: #30
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #99  Def: #8
    Recruiting (20-21): #116
    Verdict: Wyoming makes a big jump from #81 to #60 on the strength of their defense, which returns practically every component from a decent unit and sails into the top ten. The offense moves up quite a bit too, as the team overall loses very few key players. The Cowboys don't climb far into the top 60 though as their recruiting is very subpar. Schedule: Like all smart teams Wyoming scheduled an FCS team as well as UConn, giving them two guaranteed wins. They probably thought two MAC teams would make easy marks, but we have Ball State in the top 25(!) and see Northern Illinois winning a close one in DeKalb. In conference play only San Jose State and Boise State beat the Cowboys as they get Hawaii at home and avoid Nevada. Hope: No game is really out of reach here; the Cowboys could compete for the Mountain West crown with a little luck. 
61. Washington State Cougars (Pac-12 #6; North #2)
    2020 Rank: #94 (1-3)  Off: #70  Def: #105
    2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #61  Def: #65
    Recruiting (20-21): #58
    Verdict: Normally here is where we'd give a disclaimer, that Washington State's 2020 ranking is based on just four games so take it with a grain of salt—but they're ranked #94 for 2020. That's a pretty low ranking, and probably accurate. Their ascension to #61 is propelled by returning talent on both offense and defense. Defense, especially, where 95% are back, possibly upgrading a terrible defense to average. In fact, the team looks very average now: on offense, defense, and overall. Even recruiting is average. Schedule: The Cougars should win their first two games, Utah State and Portland State, handily, but the other non-conference game is BYU. Going into the Pac-12 season WSU unfortunately draws Cal, Washington, and Oregon on the road, leaving just wins over Oregon State, Stanford, and Arizona to count on. Hope: If four games is a small sample, then maybe they were underrated for last year? If so, finding a sixth win shouldn't be hard.
62. Northern Illinois Huskies (MAC #9; West #6)
    2020 Rank: #73 (0-6)  Off: #62  Def: #75
    2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #81  Def: #35
    Recruiting (20-21): #90
    Verdict: There's little doubt we rank Northern Illinois higher than almost anyone, and it's due to the MAC's overall high ratings, spawned by small sample sizes and inbred gameplay. Northern Illinois went 0-6 last season but still finished #73 in our Strength ratings. True, they only lost to one losing team and played 7-1 Ball State close, but they only played other MAC teams. They lose half their offense but return almost all their defense, and end up with an improved rating. We'll see. Schedule: We might be alone in picking NIU to beat Georgia Tech on the road, and we also favor the Huskies to win a close one at home over Wyoming. We don't take them at Michigan, but beating Maine puts them, possibly, at 3-1. In the MAC however they only play one of the three teams ranked below them, Bowling Green. Hope: NIU should hope they're as good as our projection thinks they'll be, and that they can go 3-1 out of conference. 4-8 is probably realistic though—just replace a few of the non-conference wins with MAC wins. 
63. UCF Knights (American #2)
    2020 Rank: #41 (6-4)  Off: #13  Def: #99
    2021 Projection: 10-2 (10-3)  Off: #7  Def: #115
    Recruiting (20-21): #67
    Verdict: WIth 80% of their offense back the Knights could power into the top ten there, while the porous defense loses 1/3 of its production and could get even worse, overwhelming the gains on offense. The end result is an even more schizophrenic team that drops to merely average overall—but still could vie for an American title. Schedule: UCF has two easy games—Bethune Cookman and in November, UConn—and two tough ones, the opener hosting Boise State and traveling to Louisville. We have the Knights splitting those two by just barely edging the Cardinals. In the AAC UCF is #2 but vulnerable on the road to five teams below them. But in a turn of scheduling luck, UCF plays Tulane, East Carolina, and Memphis at home and avoids Tulsa and Houston altogether. That means their only loss is probably Cincinnati. Hope: UCF should get a second shot at Cincinnati for the AAC title, but both games will be road games for the Knights.
64. California Golden Bears (Pac-12 #7; North #3)
    2020 Rank: #88 (1-3)  Off: #113  Def: #42
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #106  Def: #32
    Recruiting (20-21): #31
    Verdict: The Cal Bears' 2020 stats are based on just four games, so drawing conclusions is a fool's errand. But here we go: Cal was very weak on offense in those four games and should improve as there's nowhere to go but up. The defense also returns nearly 90% of production and should be even better. Recruiting has been pretty solid especially considering last year's partial season. Schedule: If we could project a 1-1-1 start we would, but there are no ties in college football any more. The home game vs. Nevada is a close one we have to call a loss; TCU is a solid loss; and Sacramento State a solid win. In the Pac-12 the Bears should split the Washington teams, probably winning the home game (Washington State); they get Colorado at home too, and should beat Oregon State, Stanford, and Arizona for a 5-4 finish. Hope: Last year's sample was small and Cal might finally be putting things together under Justin Wilcox. That's the hope at least.
65. Ohio Bobcats (MAC #10; East #4)
    2020 Rank: #49 (2-1)  Off: #56  Def: #47
    2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #47  Def: #58
    Recruiting (20-21): #117
    Verdict: Ohio's offense and defense practically switch rankings, with the offense moving up and the defense down. Which should leave them in about the same place but dismal recruiting sabotages that notion. Note that Ohio played just three games last year so their ratings are based on a very small sample. Schedule: Ohio hosts Syracuse and they can beat the Orange; they should also beat Duquesne before losing road games to Louisiana-Lafayette and Northwestern. It's a bad year to be mediocre in the MAC; we see Ohio beating Akron, then losing six straight before topping Bowling Green. Hope: Again, Ohio's 2020 rating is based on three games, so they could be much more competitive in-conference (let's not mention that they also might be much worse).
66. Virginia Cavaliers (ACC #9; Coastal #5)
    2020 Rank: #54 (5-5)  Off: #57  Def: #52
    2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #55  Def: #82
    Recruiting (20-21): #42
    Verdict: It looks like a drop in defense—where more than 1/3 of production moves on—is what could sink the Cavs in 2021. Schedule: Virginia opens vs. William and Mary and Illinois, and should start 2-0; later in the year they face BYU and Notre Dame, two likely losses. The ACC slate might start with four losses as they have Louisville on the road, but they ought to beat Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech at home. Hope: One way or another the Cavs should end up within striking distance of bowl eligibility as their wins are pretty solid.
67. Kentucky Wildcats (SEC #10; East #3)
    2020 Rank: #53 (5-6)  Off: #93  Def: #22
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #96  Def: #51
    Recruiting (20-21): #27
    Verdict: It's a sign of how poor the SEC East is compared to the West that the #10 team in the conference is #3 in the East. Kentucky drops in our estimation due to losses on defense; though they lose nearly 40% on both sides of the ball it just keep the offense stagnant, while the formerly excellent D drops to barely above-average. Solid recruiting prevents a meltdown, but for conference purposes the Wildcats rank just #11 over the last two cycles. Schedule: Whoever made Kentucky's pre-SEC schedule deserves a gold star. The Wildcats host 0-10 ULM, FCS Tennessee-Chattanooga, and in November, hapless New Mexico State. That's three guaranteed wins in most universes. They end playing at Louisville which is a tossup but 3-1 ain't bad when you need wins. They can't expect many in conference as the 10th best team. But again the scheduling gods are extremely kind. Playing Missouri at home is a boon, as they'd be an underdog on the road. They also play Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina, the only other teams they might beat. Of course since all those teams reside in the weak East, UK will always play them. A 4-4 finish in the SEC puts Kentucky at 7-5 and solidly bowl eligible. Hope: First, they can beat Louisville which as we said is really a tossup. But Florida, LSU, Georgia, and even Mississippi State don't look like good possibilities.
68. Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (Mtn West #5; West #3)
    2020 Rank: #90 (5-4)  Off: #90  Def: #81
    2021 Projection: 8-5  Off: #79  Def: #33
    Recruiting (20-21): #128
    Verdict: Hawaii improves quite a bit on offense but the defense—where 99% of production returns—could make a quantum leap from average to very solid. The team itself rises from a mediocre #90 to a respectable #68, hampered only by terrible recruiting, #128 out of 130 teams over the last two cycles under new coach Todd Graham. Schedule: The Warriors face two Pac-12 teams this season, UCLA and Oregon State, both on the road. Both look like losses but the Oregon State game could be very close. They also host Portland State and New Mexico State which should be easy home wins (they play the Aggies on the road, too, which they should also win!) More than perhaps any other team, home vs. road matters to Hawaii, so a tough game vs. Wyoming becomes tougher in Laramie while a narrow win over San Diego State becomes even more likely when played in Honolulu. Hawaii avoids Boise State this year but probably falls to San Jose State (even at home), Nevada, and Wyoming to finish 5-3. Hope: It's Todd Graham's third year at Hawaii and sometime's three's a charm for teams learning a coach's system. Most of the "losses" we have for the team aren't out of reach.
69. Tulane Green Wave (American #3)
    2020 Rank: #74 (6-6)  Off: #46  Def: #84
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #39  Def: #87
    Recruiting (20-21): #72
    Verdict: Tulane's already-solid offense should get a bit better as 85% of production returns; the defense is roughly the same and the team overall improves marginally, putting them within striking distance of the AAC championship game—or not, depending on the close games. Schedule: Home vs. Road is more important in the American than any other league given the logjam of parity we forecast. But first the pre-conference season: Tulane hosts Oklahoma and travels to Mississippi, two very tall orders. But they host Morgan State and UAB which should be a wide victory and a much closer one. In the AAC the #3 Wave likely lose to #1 Cincinnati and draw #2 Central Florida on the road; they also travel to East Carolina and Memphis, which could leave the 3rd best AAC team just 4-4 in conference play. Hope: Three of the four conference losses we see for Tulane are very close games, so they could make the championship game, but Cincy seems to rule the American this year.
70. Washington Huskies (Pac-12 #8; North #4) AP #20
    2020 Rank: #75 (3-1)  Off: #73  Def: #66
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #59  Def: #91
    Recruiting (20-21): #23
    Verdict: Washington returns a lot of their offense but not nearly enough defense, resulting in a schizm between their now-average offense and newly well-below-average defense. Overall the Huskies climb, and that's due to their latest recruiting classes which average out to top 25 quality, with the 2020 class being the much more impressive. Schedule: The Huskies should go 2-1 in pre-conference, beating Montana and Arkansas State at home and probably losing at Michigan. They get a scheduling boost from playing California and Washington State at home, but the scheduling gods take it right back with probably road losses to Colorado and Oregon State. They should also beat Arizona and Stanford to finish around 4-5. Hope: Any team that played only four games is hard to judge, so Washington might be much better—or worse—than we project. Probably better, since they rank at #20 in the AP poll! And with several close calls in the Pac-12 the Huskies could easily go 8-4 or better overall.
71. Missouri Tigers (SEC #11; East #4)
    2020 Rank: #65 (5-5)  Off: #53  Def: #69
    2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #53  Def: #93
    Recruiting (20-21): #40
    Verdict: Looks like another middling year for Missouri; they went 5-5 last season and slipped a bit since then, with all of the decline on the defensive side of the ball where a full third of production is lost. Recruiting hasn't been bad, unless you compare it to the rest of the SEC where 10 of the 14 teams rank in the top 25. Schedule: Missouri's non-conference slate is pretty tough, starting with Central Michigan who ranks outrageously high in our pre-season numbers. Count the game at Boston College as a loss, too, and Mizzou is 2-2 after beating Southeast Missouri and North Texas. In the SEC the Tigers travel to Kentucky but get Tennessee at home, and should also beat Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Hope: Though we have Mizzou a game short of bowl eligible, our MAC projection is probably inflated so Central Michigan could be that sixth win; otherwise they need to win game 2 at Kentucky.
72. Troy Trojans (Sun Belt #4; East #3)
    2020 Rank: #91 (5-6)  Off: #103  Def: #68
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #98  Def: #31
    Recruiting (20-21): #91
    Verdict: Troy's offense returns enough experience to get a slight upgrade but remains poor; the defense returns almost intact, making a respectable defense into a near top-25 platoon. This lifts the team from mediocre to near average nationally, and puts them in the top half of the Sun Belt. Schedule: We see wins vs. Southern (at home) and Southern Miss and South Carolina (both on the road). Liberty at home looks like a competitive loss. In the Sun Belt the Trojans are #4 behind Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Appalachian State, all of whom they play. They also get Georgia State on the road so a 4-4 finish is likely. Hope: Winning the close ones (Liberty, Georgia State) would make for a very solid season.
73. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American #4)
    2020 Rank: #52 (6-3)  Off: #94  Def: #21
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #89  Def: #26
    Recruiting (20-21): #126
    Verdict: Tulsa doesn't look so bad on paper; they return 75% of production, with the offense staying about the same, the defense dropping but hovering around top 25 level. But where they lose ground is recruiting. The previous two classes bring new blood—and importantly, quality backups—into the program. When recruiting is bad—and #126 in the nation is bad—even a quality team can be "thin" and lose games due to fatigue and get worse as the season progresses. Schedule: Cal-Davis is often a tough FCS team but Tulsa should win at home; the next two road games, Oklahoma State and Ohio State, are even tougher challenges to say the least. The Hurricane should even the slate at 2-2 with a win over Arkansas State though. In the American, Tulsa is part of a six-team parity logjam and plays three of the others: they get Houston and Memphis at home, and Tulane on the road. Their only other loss is Cincinnati, putting them at 6-2. Hope: They could make it to the AAC championship game, but they'd have to play Cincy again.
74. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten #13; West #7)
    2020 Rank: #83 (2-6)  Off: #68  Def: #86
    2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #62  Def: #72
    Recruiting (20-21): #79
    Verdict: The Illini should be quite a bit better this year as they return about 5/6 of last year's production. It will be very interesting to see how Bret Bielema does in his first year with the team, and how he recruits; the transition year class wasn't great but it improved on 2020's class. Schedule: Bielema probably won't win the home opener against Nebraska but should get his first win the next week against UTSA. They travel to Virginia for a probable close loss, but later they host Charlotte and that should be another win. In the Big Ten, after the Nebraska loss there's plenty more where that came from; we don't see a Big Ten win on the schedule. Hope: Illinois hasn't had a winning program in some time, and Bielema is the latest hope. Sometimes a new coach revitalizes a team immediately, and even getting a few Big Ten wins would give fans something to look forward to. If it happens in week one vs. Nebraska that would be a big deal, and if they can edge Virginia the Illini might start the season 3-0!
75. Houston Cougars (American #5)
    2020 Rank: #82 (3-5)  Off: #66  Def: #83
    2021 Projection: 10-2  Off: #64  Def: #71
    Recruiting (20-21): #76
    Verdict: Houston returns a decent amount on both sides of the ball, with the defense getting more benefit as that was the weaker of the two areas last year. The Cougars played predictably last season, losing to every team that finished with a winning record. Schedule: Houston opens with the Red Raiders in Houston; though it's not strictly a home game, it really is and the Cougars should win. They should also beat Rice on the road in week 2, Grambling at home in week 3, and UConn on the road in the last game of the season. That's a 4-0 sweep of their non-conference slate. In the American Houston hits a few road bumps: They get Tulsa and Tulane on the road (they'd be favored at home against both), but they avoid Cincinnati and get East Carolina, SMU, and Memphis at home. If they go 6-2 that's a 10-2 season. Hope: Both those losses are very close—like I said, they'd be favored at home—so it's not impossible for Houston to go 12-0. It's unlikely they'd beat Cincy in the championship game if they got there, however.