2021 Pre-season #26-50

26. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Big Ten #6; West #3)
    2020 Rank: #44 (3-4)  Off: #49  Def: #49
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #37  Def: #27
    Recruiting (20-21): #36
    Verdict: Remember how Minnesota was 11-2 in 2019? Apparently no one else does either, since the Gophers aren't getting any benefit of the doubt like other teams whose 2020 season is completely discounted as if it didn't happen. Minnesota wasn't great in 2020 but they weren't horrible and they return the bulk of the squad and recruiting pretty well to boot. For us it's enough to put them on the verge of a top 25 ranking while the AP gives them not a single vote. Schedule: The Gophers open with Ohio State and had better recover for Miami of Ohio who is going to put up more of a fight than expected. The Gophers should beat Colorado and Bowling Green too to start 3-1. After five wins in a row in the Big Ten the Gophers will be feeling great at 8-1 before losing to Iowa, Indiana, and Wisconsin to end up 8-4. Hope: A Thursday-night upset of Ohio State in Minneapolis might be a lot to ask, but it's possible and would quickly give the Gophers some respect in the polls.
27. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Independent #1) AP #9
    2020 Rank: #13 (10-2)  Off: #34  Def: #6
    2021 Projection: 9-3  Off: #70  Def: #14
    Recruiting (20-21): #12
    Verdict: Everyone's gaga over the Irish. While it's true they've had four great seasons in a row, it seems everyone is overlooking their production losses this year (over 50% on offense, over 33% on defense) or assuming that good recruiting will take care of that. We don't think so. Last year's offense wasn't great and this year's will be mediocre, and while the defense still looks good it won't control games like it sometimes did last year. Schedule: The Irish open at Florida State which should be a pretty easy win. Then they host Toledo. Here's where we see if the MAC is for real at all, as our numbers say the Rockets shock the Irish. Do we believe it? It's hard to swallow, but I won't be too surprised if Toledo gives them a scare. In any case, we have Notre Dame just 2-1 after beating Purdue. Then the Irish face Wisconsin and Cincinnati back to back. They are at home for Cincy so they edge them but lose to the Badgers in Chicago. That's 3-2. Virginia Tech and USC are wins but North Carolina looks like a close loss. 5-3. The Irish should run the table from there: Navy, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Stanford, and finish 9-3. Hope: Obviously everyone expects Notre Dame to beat Toledo, and the UNC game isn't out of reach; even with our lowly ranking, it's not hard to see the Irish in the National Championship hunt again if the ball bounces their way a few times. But 9-3 isn't far-fetched in an overall sense against this schedule, as they could easily drop the Cincy or USC game.
28. TCU Horned Frogs (Big Twelve #4)
    2020 Rank: #27 (6-4)  Off: #35  Def: #25
    2021 Projection: 9-3  Off: #29  Def: #46
    Recruiting (20-21): #38
    Verdict: Not much change for TCU—the offense moves up, the defense moves down, the team gets a bit better but falls a rung. Schedule: The Horned Frogs' easy non-conference slate consists of three home games: Duquesne, California, and SMU. As they play every Big Twelve team and rank #4 you'd expect a 6-3 finish, unless home field comes into play. As it turns out, TCU plays Oklahoma State on the road and Texas at home, so there's no change. Hope: Unless they can upset one of the top-tier teams this looks like the best the Frogs can do.
29. Eastern Michigan Eagles (MAC #5; West #5)
    2020 Rank: #34 (2-4)  Off: #28  Def: #56
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #20  Def: #56
    Recruiting (20-21): #103
    Verdict: We can guarantee this is the highest Eastern Michigan is ranked by anyone. The Eagles finished at #34 last year despite a 2-4 record because of the MAC being vastly overrated based on lack of inter-conference gameplay. Now, with 90+% returning on both offense and defense, they make their way even higher, to #29. The funny thing is, despite their high ranking they have to deal with other overranked teams in their own conference, limiting their win-loss projection. Schedule: Eastern Michigan opens against Saint Francis, a team we didn't recognize as FCS until we added "PA" to it. They also play UMass and Texas State as well as Wisconsin. Going 3-1 won't prove anything but if they don't it will reveal their limitations. Being in the MAC West the Eagles play all four teams ranked above them and lose all four. They get Miami Ohio at home so they win the other four. Hope: This could happen. The Eagles might go 7-5 even if they were ranked #69 instead of #29, so ultimately our projection isn't unrealistic. For reference, they were 6-6 in 2019 and 7-5 in 2018.
30. Texas Longhorns (Big Twelve #5) AP #21
    2020 Rank: #12 (7-3)  Off: #7  Def: #45
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #18  Def: #74
    Recruiting (20-21): #10
    Verdict: Every year the AP puts Texas in the top 25 and almost every year it's a bust. Although they have finally put together four winning seasons in a row for the first time since the Colt McCoy era. We ranked them #12 in Strength last year but that team is largely gone: they lost half the offense and 1/3 of the defense, tanking both units. Recruiting props them up and as usual is the source of the sportswriters' optimism, but we aren't buying it. Schedule: The opener will answer a lot of questions as the Longhorns host Louisiana-Lafayette; we have the Longhorns by a point. A blowout by Texas or a ULL win will be a big deal. Texas travels to Arkansas next and that's another close one, but we give it to the Razorbacks. Seriously, Texas could be 0-2 or 2-0 just as easily. Rice gives them a breather and their first sure thing. In the Big 12 they get Oklahoma State at home but face TCU on the road; Oklahoma and Iowa State are probably too good for Texas this year, too. They finish 6-3 in the Big Twelve, 8-4 overall. Hope: The Longhorns could pretty easily go 3-0 non-conference and pick up another Big 12 win for a 10-win season.
31. Miami Ohio RedHawks (MAC #6; East #1)
    2020 Rank: #32 (2-1)  Off: #40  Def: #38
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #30  Def: #24
    Recruiting (20-21): #89
    Verdict: How did Miami of Ohio get to #31? Easy: Start at #32 from last year based on a 2-1 record. The RedHawks were the only team to beat Ball State and only lost to 7-1 Buffalo (though that was 42-10). They were left with decent but unspectacular offense and defense rankings based on this, and since they return 89% on both sides of the ball that was bound to improve. Unfortunately their dismal recruiting weighed them down and they only moved up a spot—but they grade out at #1 in the MAC East. Schedule: The season probably starts with two road losses at Cincinnati and Minnesota, but whether those are competitive at all is the question. The RedHawks can beat Long Island at home. Everyone expects them to be 1-2 at this point, it's the Army road game that will demonstrate whether or not they deserve a decent ranking. In the MAC we see losses to Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, and Ball State from the West, as well as Kent State on the road in the East; that pretty much dashes their hopes for a MAC crown. Hope: It might be best to avoid another loss in the MAC title game; instead, upsetting Minnesota from the Big Ten would be a big moment for the MAC.
32. BYU Cougars (Independent #2)
    2020 Rank: #7 (11-1)  Off: #12  Def: #17
    2021 Projection: 11-1  Off: #24  Def: #44
    Recruiting (20-21): #75
    Verdict: 2020 was a great year for BYU football. They finished 11-1, losing only an oddly sluggish game at 11-1 Coastal Carolina, while beating Boise State 51-17 and UCF 49-23 along the way. The offense and defense were both top notch. This year is different however; the Cougars lose almost half their offensive production and 1/3 of their defense, and the result is a slide from the top 10 to #32. It still leaves BYU a solid team but their bowl ambitions are greatly reduced from what they were much of last season. Schedule: As a western independent BYU has an interesting slate: five Pac-12 opponents, two from the Mountain West, 1 Big Twelve (Baylor), and 1 ACC (Virginia). We see them going 4-1 against the Pac-12, losing to Arizona State but beating Arizona, Utah, Washington State, and even USC. They should beat both Utah State on the road and Boise State at home. We don't think Baylor or Virginia can hang with them, either. That leaves South Florida, Idaho State, and Georgia Southern to finish 11-1. Hope: That's about the best it can get. If the Cougars repeat at 11-1 with a much tougher schedule, despite losing so much talent, it will be amazing quite frankly.
33. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Big Ten #7; East #4)
    2020 Rank: #59 (3-6)  Off: #63  Def: #53
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #45  Def: #29
    Recruiting (20-21): #52
    Verdict: This isn't a case of last year's results gone wild—Rutgers rated as a mediocre team in 2020. But they return over 90% of production on both sides of the ball and deserve to be ranked correspondingly higher. They might surprise some people. Schedule: After three games (Temple, at Syracuse, Delaware) Rutgers should be 3-0; if they're not, then maybe we're wrong and Rutgers is having a typical Rutgers season. But if they beat Michigan on the road in nailbiter as we expect, then maybe people will start paying attention. Obviously Ohio State will bring 4-0 Rutgers back down to earth, but from there we expect wins over Michigan State, Illinois, and Maryland for their first bowl season since 2014. Hope: The game at Northwestern looks like a 5-overtime thriller that the Scarlet Knights lose; a win there would be nice.
34. Kent State Golden Flashes (MAC #7; East #2)
    2020 Rank: #38 (3-1)  Off: #3  Def: #119
    2021 Projection: 7-5 (7-6)  Off: #1  Def: #108
    Recruiting (20-21): #119
    Verdict: It's easy to see how Kent State got here: a 4-game sample size + averaging 50 points per game put their offense at #3 (while the defense gave up 38 and ranked #119). With 90% of their offense back, they jump to #1 in the nation (wow) while the defense is still bad but not among the very worst. The Flashes only gain a few rungs overall because dismal recruiting weighs them down. Schedule: Kent State has some good chances to rep the MAC this year, but mainly it's going to be interesting to see how their offense does against non-conference foes. Texas A&M is first and ranks #5 on defense; after VMI, they travel to Iowa who has our #4 defense. We expect Kent State to lose these games but if they can score on Texas A&M and Iowa then their offense is for real. They also travel to Maryland; that game should be a shootout that the Flashes could win, but probably not. The MAC is tough this year (so we say!) but at #2 in the East it should be Kent State-friendly. It helps that they get Miami and Buffalo at home, so their only expected losses are Western and Central Michigan, putting them in the MAC title game. Hope: It's doubtful they'll beat the West champ. Upsetting one of the non-conference foes would be nice, and the Maryland game should be close.
35. Maryland Terrapins (Big Ten #8; East #5)
    2020 Rank: #56 (2-3)  Off: #41  Def: #63
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #33  Def: #61
    Recruiting (20-21): #21
    Verdict: The Terrapins were mediocre in 2020 and return a respectable amount of talent, but it's their recruiting that boosts them into the top 40. Who realized Maryland was recruiting like a top 25 team under Mike Locksley? We didn't get the memo until now. Schedule: Maryland hosts West Virginia in the opener and should handle them, as well as Howard from the FCS the next week. Week four against Kent State is going to be the interesting one if our MAC projection is remotely true, as the Flashes are #34. The Terps should still win at home, but we'll see if it's close. With Illinois as their Big Ten opener Maryland should be 4-0 when they run into Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Indiana, and Penn State. Now they're 4-5. Beating Michigan and Michigan State gives them bowl eligibility as they fall to Rutgers on the road. Hope: It would be nice to not lose five straight games; Minnesota on the road or Penn State at home is their best bet.
36. Florida Gators (SEC #6; East #2) AP #13
    2020 Rank: #14 (8-4)  Off: #6  Def: #50
    2021 Projection: 9-3  Off: #23  Def: #79
    Recruiting (20-21): #8
    Verdict: The AP is in love with the Gators but we're not. While we downgrade them for losing well over half their relevant offensive production, and 1/3 on defense, the sportswriters keep them steady while we drop them 22 spots. Their stellar recruiting keeps a floor underneath them or they'd be out of the top 50. They remain one of the top teams in the SEC East, however, since there's not much to choose from there. Schedule: Florida only loses to Georgia in the East, but they face Alabama from the West as well as LSU on the road. The non-conference schedule is pretty much a joke, with Florida Atlantic, South Florida, and Samford. Hope: The Gators are capable of beating LSU for a 10th win, but Alabama and Georgia are probably beyond reach.
37. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (ACC #4; Atlantic #2)
    2020 Rank: #31 (4-5)  Off: #17  Def: #77
    2021 Projection: 10-2  Off: #13  Def: #75
    Recruiting (20-21): #65
    Verdict: Wake returns a respectable 80% or so of production which keeps their offense and defense rankings roughly the same—offense very good, defense poor—but they aren't recruiting at this level so their overall ranking slips a bit. Schedule: It's very favorable, both before and during conference play. Wake Forest eases into the season like a breeze, hosting Old Dominion and Norfolk State back to back. Later they travel to Army whom we don't think too highly of. The ACC season begins with FSU at home, another team we don't rate highly; after Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, and Duke, Wake could be 8-0 when they travel to North Carolina. The Tar Heels and Clemson might be the Deacs' only defeats. Hope: I'd say going from 4-5 to 10-2 is pretty much all fans could hope for. Don't get greedy.
38. Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC #7; West #5)
    2020 Rank: #51 (3-7)  Off: #44  Def: #58
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #67  Def: #41
    Recruiting (20-21): #24
    Verdict: Arkansas loses a lot of offense and returns a lot of defense. It looks like a wash until you add in recruiting which is responsible for most of the Razorbacks' rise from last year where they lost three games by 2 or 3 points. Schedule: The Razorbacks open with Rice, hosts Georgia Southern in game three, and play Pine Bluff mid-season. They also host Texas in game 2, a barnburner which we'll give to Arkansas in double overtime. That puts them at 4-0, and 3-1 worst case. In the deadly SEC West they draw LSU on the road but should beat Mississippi State at home, along with Missouri, but that's about it. Hope: With recruiting like this in the face of rapid coaching turnover, imagine how they'll recruit with some stability?
39. Buffalo Bulls (MAC #8; East #3)
    2020 Rank: #9 (6-1)  Off: #11  Def: #29
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #16  Def: #53
    Recruiting (20-21): #118
    Verdict: After a great 2020 the bottom falls out for Buffalo. If you'd told me I'd have a top 25 projection full of MAC teams I would have guessed for sure that Buffalo would be among them—they were 6-1 last year, losing only to 7-1 Ball State and beating 7-3 Marshall in the Camellia Bowl, and finished #9 in Strength with great offense and decent defensive rating. They scored 42+ points five times, so even big losses on offense leave their ranking in the top 25, but the defense tanks, and the entire coaching staff is new; recruiting was going well until Lance Leipold departed. As such they slide all the way to #39—still good historically for a MAC team, but not this year in our rankings! Schedule: The Bulls should beat Wagner easily and come this close to beating Nebraska. Coastal Carolina was another surprise Group of Five team from last year but they maintained their momentum and probably beat the Bulls in Buffalo. Old Dominion puts the Bulls at 2-2. The MAC schedule isn't kind as Buffalo misses two chances at wins by playing Miami and Kent State on the road. They should beat Ohio, Akron, Bowling Green, and Northern Illinois. Hope: That last year's success carries through more than we expect?
40. Utah Utes (Pac-12 #3; South #3) AP #24
    2020 Rank: #61 (3-2)  Off: #72  Def: #46
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #74  Def: #38
    Recruiting (20-21): #29
    Verdict: Utah makes a pretty big leap in our rankings from last year's 3-2 team, but it's hard to see why they're ranked in the AP top 25. Unless they're going back to 2019 for guidance, when the Utes were 11-3. It's like last season never happened! Schedule: Utah plays it's non-conference slate right up front: Weber State, then at BYU and at San Diego State. Obviously the first game is a snoozefest, but the 2nd one should be great and we favor BYU in Provo. The Utes should start 2-1. In the Pac-12 they get Oregon at home but USC on the road, so they should split those, and lose to UCLA and ASU as well for a 6-3 run. Hope: If Utah really is top 25 quality they should beat BYU, but the Pac-12 record is about what's expected of them anyway.
41. Northwestern Wildcats (Big Ten #9; West #4)
    2020 Rank: #10 (7-2)  Off: #54  Def: #1
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #95  Def: #10
    Recruiting (20-21): #47
    Verdict: Northwestern was great last year, going 6-2 in the Big Ten and beating Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. They had our #1 defense for the season, too, though the offense was mediocre. Most of that is gone, however, as somehow Northwestern managed to lose 2/3 of their offensive production and over 50% on defense! This downgrades the offense immensely while the defense slips to #10. And overall the Wildcats drop from #10 to #41, more in line with how they recruit lately. Schedule: Indiana State is an obvious win, Ohio is another though not quite as obvious, and Duke on the road should be somewhere in between. Northwestern opens hosting Michigan State so the Wildcats should start 4-0. They travel to Nebraska which may be a heartbreaking close loss, then host Rutgers which could be an amazing 5-overtime win. Michigan on the road? Another super-close loss. Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin all look like losses this year, but they end with Purdue and Illinois. Hope: Win those close games and it goes from a tepid 7-5 season to a memorable 9-3 one.
42. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Ten #10; West #5)
    2020 Rank: #42 (3-5)  Off: #60  Def: #39
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #76  Def: #40
    Recruiting (20-21): #18
    Verdict: If the Cornhuskers are going to get better this year under Scott Frost we're not seeing it on paper as we have them treading water. Losses on offense are offset by solid recruiting over that past two terms, leaving Nebraska right where they were last season. Schedule: Nebraska's non-conference slate is rough after Fordham; they host Buffalo who might beat the Huskers if it were on a neutral field. We give Nebraska that one, but they aren't ready to go into Norman and face Oklahoma as far as we can tell. The Big Ten isn't much kinder, but they get some scheduling breaks: they beat Illinois and Michigan State, get Northwestern and Michigan at home, and beat Purdue too. That's a solid 5-4, 7-5 overall, at least a bowl game, and gives Frost another season to really step it up. Hope: Seriously they get about all the scheduling breaks they can, other than having to play Oklahoma. But the Sooners have a habit of getting upset when they're ranked as high as they are this year, so who knows?
43. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten #11; East #6) 
    2020 Rank: #67 (2-4)  Off: #32  Def: #87
    2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #35  Def: #73
    Recruiting (20-21): #13
    Verdict: Michigan improves a lot but is still just #43, and 11th in the Big Ten. Ouch. The defense returns a lot but is still a dismal #73 before factoring in solid recruiting from the last two seasons, which provides the lion's share of overall improvement. Schedule: Another team gets the Western Michigan test. The Broncos are in our top 25 and if they deserve to be there they will beat the Wolverines, or at least give them a big scare. We'll see. Michigan hosts Washington after than and we give that one to UM, as we don't have the Huskies anywhere near our top 25. So ultimately we have the Wolverines 1-1 at this point, which is what everyone is projecting. A win over Northern Illinois should make that 2-1. In the Big Ten they don't catch a break though, losing close games to Rutgers at home and Nebraska on the road. We do give them a tight home win over Northwestern and the rivalry win at Michigan State. That's it. Hope: The recruiting classes had better come through. Then maybe they can win the close games and get to a bowl.
44. San Jose State Spartans (Mtn West #1; West #1) 
    2020 Rank: #35 (7-1)  Off: #65  Def: #26
    2021 Projection: 9-3  Off: #58  Def: #18
    Recruiting (20-21): #125
    Verdict: Based on how good they played last year and their 85% return rate the Spartans should rise in our rankings; indeed their offensive and defensive ranks both go up, but when we add in recruiting San Jose State can't keep up; they recruit like the worst teams in the FBS lately. Teams that lose a lot of talent can replace it adequately with good recruiting; likewise even teams that return a lot of talent can go south without decent recruiting. Still, San Jose State ranks atop the Mountain West with just what they return. Schedule: The Spartans should handle Southern Utah just fine, then they travel to USC whom they outrank in our projections—just barely, and not enough to overcome home advantage. It will be interesting to see if they keep it close. They travel to Western Michigan, too; the Broncos are one of our wildly inflated MAC teams, so that translates to a loss for the Spartans. They get New Mexico State at home though. In the Mountain West San Jose State beats everyone except Nevada on the road. That loss would prevent the Spartans from winning the West and going to the title game. Hope: A 9-3 season isn't bad; fans should hope for better recruiting to keep their winning ways continuing.
45. LSU Tigers (SEC #8; West #6) AP #16
    2020 Rank: #39 (5-5)  Off: #23  Def: #74
    2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #40  Def: #76
    Recruiting (20-21): #4
    Verdict: LSU went 5-5 last year and finished unranked. They lose almost 40% of their offense and tread water on defense. So naturally they are #16 in the AP poll. What gives? Recruiting gives, and past performance. LSU is only two seasons beyond their dominant national championship of 2019, so last year is treated as an aberration. And given their recruiting, it might be. Without that, they'd drop well out of our top 50. But it's not enough to elevate the Tigers into our top 25. Schedule: This is going to be interesting, as LSU plays two of our "surprise" teams. Obviously they beat McNeese State and ULM. But UCLA and even Central Michigan are in our top 25, so we put LSU at 2-2 before the SEC season. Make of that what you will. In conference, the Tigers get Mississippi State on the road (loss), but get Florida and Arkansas at home (wins). The rest are losses except for Kentucky, putting LSU at 3-5, 5-7 overall. Not what fans want to see, but there we are. Hope: With recruiting like they have, and an inspirational coach, a rebound is probably a good bet. We'll admit we have Central Michigan overranked and LSU should win that one and go at least 6-6 a reach a bowl game, but the SEC is pretty unforgiving.
46. Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC #9; West #7)
    2020 Rank: #58 (4-7)  Off: #82  Def: #37
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #82  Def: #30
    Recruiting (20-21): #25
    Verdict: The Bulldogs lose quite a bit on offense but at #82 it doesn't mean that much; they remain #82. On defense they return more talent and move up a few notches. What causes the jump from #58 to #46 is their #25 recruiting ranking, which is only 10th in the SEC but enough to make a difference to a team ranked near the middle nationally. Schedule: In the SEC the non-conference games are where the lesser teams have to thrive. Mississippi State hosts Louisiana Tech and NC State, both of which should be wins, the latter a lot more dangerous than the former. They travel to Memphis which should be somewhere in between, but all three ought to be wins, along with their late-season breather vs. Tennessee State. In-conference things get real right away as they have LSU, Texas A&M, and Alabama all in a row. But we think they edge LSU at home, and they can handle Vanderbilt and Kentucky, too. Those three wins plus four non-conference puts the Bulldogs comfortably in the bowl picture. Hope: An upset win in the egg bowl?
47. Boise State Broncos (Mtn West #2; Mountain #1)
    2020 Rank: #47 (5-2)  Off: #22  Def: #82
    2021 Projection: 10-2 (11-2)  Off: #17  Def: #84
    Recruiting (20-21): #66
    Verdict: The same. We project Boise State to be the same, still #47 in Strength. Sure, the offense returns almost 90% production and gets a bit better, the defense loses almost 1/4 and slips a notch or two, but overall we don't move them at all. Schedule: For some reason Boise plays a wicked schedule this year. Get a load of their non-conference slate: at UCF, UTEP, Oklahoma State, at BYU. Only UTEP is a breather, and we think the Broncos can edge the Knights even on the road. Oklahoma State and BYU are probable losses. In conference, assuming they're not too banged up, Boise State is near the top. And since they avoid San Jose State and play Nevada at home, we don't see a loss here. That puts Boise in the Mountain West championship game which might be a rematch with Nevada (the Wolf Pack play San Jose State at home), and Boise State should win the rematch too. The Broncos are our favorite to win the MWC despite being the 2nd best team. Hope: Pieces have to fall into place to avoid playing San Jose State in the final, but that game isn't out of reach either. And if Boise gets lucky, their schedule is strong enough that 12-1 probably makes them the Group of Five New Year's Day pick.
48. Baylor Bears (Big Twelve #6)
    2020 Rank: #57 (2-7)  Off: #83  Def: #34
    2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #92  Def: #17
    Recruiting (20-21): #46
    Verdict: Baylor finished respectably in Strength last year despite a 2-7 record, as they played a number of teams close and had a tough all-Big Twelve schedule. The offense wasn't great and may get worse with attrition, while the defense ranked well and looks to thrive with over 90% of production back. Schedule: Baylor's three non-conference games are spread out, as they open at Texas State, then host BYU and Texas Southern in November. We give the Bears 2 out of 3. As they rank #6 in conference, you can assume we project them to go 4-5; home field doesn't affect any of these as they get West Virginia at home, also defeating Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Kansas. Hope: We're already projecting a pretty big turnaround, and there aren't a lot of close losses that could tip the other way. Still, there are always upsets and good luck...
49. USC Trojans (PAC-12 #4; South #4) AP #15
    2020 Rank: #33 (5-1)  Off: #38  Def: #44
    2021 Projection: 8-4  Off: #42  Def: #69
    Recruiting (20-21): #33
    Verdict: USC is a bit of an enigma. Last year's team went 5-1 but didn't really impress, and neither did the Pac-12 overall. They lose a quarter of their offensive production and even more on defense. Yet the AP ranks them #15, up from their #21 finish. We have them #49, down from #33! Their recruiting score (#33) is interesting, in that it combines two classes that are very different; their 2020 class ranked just #64 while the 2021 class ranks #7. That's what the sportswriters are looking at. That, and the fact that USC is usually good, or on the verge of becoming good, etc. Bill Connelly's SP+ ranks them #14, while ESPN's FPI has them #18. Well, we said our rankings would be different; here you go..! Schedule: The very first game will tell us a lot about USC as they host San Jose State, whom we rank higher at #44. The home advantage should give the game to the Trojans but whether it's close or not will be the key. USC's other non-conference games are Notre Dame in game 7 and BYU in game 12, both look like losses to us given our low opinion of the Trojans. In the Pac-12 things are a mixed bag, too: USC is the 4th best team, but only the 4th best team in the South. That means they play the top three teams. Luckily they get Utah at home so they only lose to Arizona State and UCLA, going 7-2. Hope: This one's obvious: hope that our projection is wrong and that USC is a solidly top 25 team like everyone else says. Even within our projection, if the great freshman class realizes its potential the Trojans could find more success, as all their toughest games are in the 2nd half of the season.
50. Pittsburgh Panthers (ACC #5; Coastal #5)
    2020 Rank: #43 (6-5)  Off: #67  Def: #31
    2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #63  Def: #56
    Recruiting (20-21): #34
    Verdict: Pitt's defensive decline leads to an overall dip from last season, where they beat every losing team they played and lost to every winning team. Schedule: The non-conference schedule has a couple of gifts in Massachusetts and New Hampshire, a very winnable road trip to Tennessee, and Western Michigan. Sounds like 4-0? Thing is Western Michigan actually makes our Top 25, so we have Pitt 3-1 outside the ACC. Inside the conference they play all of the top three teams (Clemson, Miami, UNC) and have Virginia Tech on the road, so about 4-4. Hope: If Western Michigan is more reasonably ranked, then Pitt can start 4-0; if the defense holds up better, maybe they can beat Virginia Tech too, and go 9-3. But the top three seem out of reach so a conference championship is more a dream than a hope.