2021 Pre-season #101-130

101. Arkansas State Red Wolves (Sun Belt #6; West #2)
     2020 rank: #101 (4-7)  Off: #64  Def: #117
     2021 Projection: 3-9  Off: #75 Def: #109
     Recruiting (20-21): #96
     Verdict: Arkansas State looks much the same as last year, both in rank and probably result. The Red Wolves' offense might be a bit worse, the defense a bit better, and they recruit to about this level. Schedule: The Central Arkansas opener looks like their only non-conference win (among Memphis, Washington, and Tulsa). And despite being #2 in the West ULM and Texas State might be their only conference wins due to an unfavorable schedule. Hope: if the Wolves can win road games at Georgia Southern and South Alabama, they're within striking distance of bowl eligibility.
102. Georgia Southern Eagles (Sun Belt #7; East #5)
     2020 rank: #86 (8-5) Off: #98 Def: #60
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #107 Def: #85
     Recruiting (20-21): #94
     Verdict: It looks like a big dip for Georgia Southern as they lose almost half their offensive production and a good-sized chunk of defense that mediocre recruiting can't replenish. Schedule: Gardner-Webb and Arkansas State at home look like wins, but they have BYU and Arkansas on the non-conference schedule and a tough Sun Belt slate. Hope: Games at South Alabama and Texas State could be wins; after that, they'll need to replicate some of last year's close wins to reach bowl status.
103. Vanderbilt Commodores (SEC #13, East #6)
     2020 Rank: #110 (0-9) Off: #116 Def: #94
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #114 Def: #94
     Recruiting (20-21): #51
     Verdict: The Commodores return a typical amount of production on both sides of the ball, resulting in almost exactly the same rankings as last year. Their slight boost overall comes from recruiting, which is terrible by SEC standards but well above average for the NCAA. Schedule: Vanderbilt's schedule practically guarantees a couple of wins vs. East Tennessee State and hapless UConn. Hope: With improvement, close losses at Colorado State, at home to Stanford, and at South Carolina could be wins too.
104. South Alabama Jaguars (Sun Belt #8; West #3)
     2020 Rank: #107 (4-7) Off: #121  Def: #78
     2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #122  Def: #55
     Recruiting (20-21): #120
     Verdict: Hardly improved from last year, the Jaguars may go bowling anyway. Better defense should give the Jaguars a bit of a boost but unfortunately the offense may remain stagnant. Recruiting has been dismal the last two years which might make breaking the bowl ceiling tough. But the Schedule is very favorable as the home opener, Southern Miss, looks promising, as does the road game vs. Bowling Green. They could be 3-0 after Alcorn State. The Jags get Arkansas State and Georgia Southern at home, too; add a win vs. ULM and that's the six games they need in theory. Hope: Texas State on the road could be bowl "insurance" while a late-season non-conference game at Tennessee is probably wishful thinking. 
105. UNLV Rebels (Mtn West #10; West #6)
     2020 Rank: #119 (0-6)  Off: #111 Def: #122
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #115  Def: #88
     Recruiting (20-21): #71
     Verdict: UNLV should be considerably better than 2020's team thanks to improvement to last year's dismal defense; the almost-equally dismal offense might remain, however. Recruiting over the past 2 years has been good enough to point toward success. Schedule: It's pretty tough. UNLV hosts FCS power Eastern Washington and we'll give it to the Rebels at home. We do not like their odds against either Arizona State or Iowa State (see top 25), nor even UTSA on the road. Utah State might be their only conference win. Hope: They play at New Mexico which could be a win, too, and in any case should beat last year's total.
106. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC #14; East #7)
     2020 Rank: #87 (2-8) Off: #75  Def: #90
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #84  Def: #118
     Recruiting (20-21): #48
     Verdict: Last year's woes continue, and may be even worse as the Gamecocks lose 40+% of both their offensive and defensive production. Recruiting helps restore some of it but for the SEC they're not recruiting well lately and look far and away like the worst team in the conference (close call with Vanderbilt). Schedule: Aside from the Eastern Illinois opener nothing will come easy. They play at East Carolina and host Troy and both games will be tough. They get Vanderbilt at home, though, so they shouldn't be shut out in the SEC. Hope: Beating East Carolina and Troy would make this season better than last year; a Clemson upset is probably not on the table though.
107. New Mexico Lobos (Mtn West #11; Mountain #5)
     2020 Rank: #103 (2-5)  Off: #92  Def: #109
     2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #86  Def: #112
     Recruiting (20-21): #98
     Verdict: Not much change from last year's rankings, as the returning starters and recruiting point to about the same quality team as in 2020. A full season gives more chance to win, however. Schedule: The Lobo schedule is fan-friendly, too. Houston Baptist, New Mexico State, and UTEP should help the Lobos start 3-1 (loss is to Texas A&M); in the Mountain West, they should beat Utah State and they host UNLV. Hope: There's not much else other than what their schedule gifts them, but New Mexico could find itself needing just one upset for bowl eligibility, and Colorado State at home should be a close game.
108. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (CUSA #6; West #4)
     2020 Rank: #116 (3-7)  Off: #107  Def: #118
     2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #111  Def: #92
     Recruiting (20-21): #100
     Verdict: The Golden Eagle defense should be a lot better, or rather, not as terrible, accounting for most of their improvement. Schedule: South Alabama on the road looks like a close loss, but Grambling should be a win. Troy—and Alabama—don't look so good. In conference play they should get four wins, perhaps UTEP, North Texas, Louisiana Tech, and FIU. Hope: The CUSA looks extremely weak this year—or at least unpredictable—and could be wide open. MTSU could be the Eagles' key 6th win.
109. Texas State Bobcats (Sun Belt #9; West #4)
     2020 Rank: #104 (2-10) Off: #84  Def: #115
     2021 Projection: 4-8  Off: #72  Def: #116
     Recruiting (20-21): #123
     Verdict: A decent improvement in offense is offset by poor recruiting, and the Bobcats look just marginally better than they did last year when they had 2 wins in a full slate. Schedule: The opener vs. Florida International looks like an overtime game, but with the Bobcats on the wrong side (see Hope). And unfortunately Eastern Michigan might be good this year. That leaves Baylor or Incarnate Word; we'll give them the latter. In conference the Bobcats get South Alabama and Georgia Southern at home luckily, and ULM gives them a 3rd Sun Belt win. Hope: Win the opener (it's a coin flip) and if Eastern Michigan is a lot poorer than we think...suddenly the Bobcats are in striking distance of 6 wins.
110. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (CUSA #7; East #3)
     2020 Rank: #121 (3-6) Off: #109  Def: #126
     2021 Projection: 7-5  Off: #110  Def: #97
     Recruiting (20-21): #113
     Verdict: Almost the entire defense returns so we see a sizable improvement there, but the offense could remain underachievers. Poor recruiting is doing the Raiders no favors. Schedule: Virginia Tech and Liberty are probably out of reach but Monmouth and UConn look like two solid wins. The CUSA isn't looking tough; the Raiders should beat Southern Miss at home, as well as Charlotte, Western Kentucky, FIU, and Old Dominion. Hope: For a team ranked this low, 7-5 is a pretty solid outcome, so they should hope we're right in picking the wins.
111. Arizona Wildcats (Pac-12 #12; South #6)
     2020 Rank: #112 (0-5)  Off: #115  Def: #104
     2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #113  Def: #107
     Recruiting (20-21): #68
     Verdict: Arizona doesn't look any better than last year's winless squad, largely the same on offense and defense. Though recruiting softens the blow, it's not good for a Power Five conference member. Schedule: BYU and SDSU don't look promising, but they should finally get a win vs. Northern Arizona. Then comes the Pac-12 where the Wildcats are rated dead last, and it's not close. Hope: Last year Arizona got worse each week it seemed, but it was a five-game schedule which makes for a small sample size. Thus the Wildcats could be much better than advertised, and probably can't be any worse. They can only outperform our expectations.
112. Florida International Panthers (CUSA #8; East #4)
     2020 Rank: #122 (0-5)  Off: #114  Def: #125
     2021 Projection: 6-6  Off: #112  Def: #111
     Recruiting (20-21): #80
     Verdict: A solid defensive improvement pushes the Panthers up about 10 spots, and along with decent recruiting could launch them to bowl eligibility. Schedule: FIU has a breezy opener vs. Long Island, while game two vs. Texas State is one of the closest calls we have but the Panthers should get the tip to start 2-0 after an 0-5 2020. We don't give them Texas Tech or Central Michigan however. In the CUSA the Panthers could go 4-4, say Charlotte, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, and North Texas are wins. Hope: After a winless 2020, we think getting to bowl eligibility is enough to hope for. So they need to win the coin flip vs. Texas State.
113. South Florida Bulls (American #9)
     2020 Rank: #113 (1-8)  Off: #96  Def: #124
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #90  Def: #122
     Recruiting (20-21): #85
     Verdict: USF loses about a quarter of production on both offense and defense, resulting in much the same squad as 2020's 1-8 team, where the only win was against The Citadel and most of the losses weren't close. Recruiting helps keep things from getting worse. Schedule: It's not great, with NC State, Florida, and BYU on the non-conference slate. Florida A&M should be this year's Citadel. The American conference has three bad teams; USF is one of them, and they play Temple, the conference's worst. Hope: They need upsets, period. And for our projection to be wrong.
114. Akron Zips (Mac #11; East #5)
     2020 Rank: #117 (1-5)  Off: #123  Def: #101
     2021 Projection: 3-9  Off: #117  Def: #99
     Recruiting (20-21): #127
     Verdict: The Zips return enough, especially on offense, to make a decent gain but they don't get enough in recruiting to sustain that. And in what could be a great year for the MAC at the top, being on the bottom of the conference is a bad place to be. Schedule: It would be a good year for an easy non-conference schedule; instead the Zips get Ohio State and Auburn. But they do get Temple and Bryant at home which should put them ahead of last season's win total by mid-September. In the MAC the only win we see is the team they beat last year, Bowling Green. Hope: Anything else they get—either in-conference or out—is cause for celebration.
115. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (CUSA #9; West #5)
     2020 Rank: #111 (5-5)  Off: #104  Def: #112
     2021 Projection: 5-7  Off: #105  Def: #120
     Recruiting (20-21): #95
     Verdict: The Bulldogs look about the same, that is, still poor and with a terrible defense. Note that the entire CUSA is rated low in our system. Schedule: SMU, Mississippi State, and NC State don't look favorable, and even Southeastern Louisiana isn't a gimme (but we give it to them). In the CUSA things are much easier this year: North Texas, UTEP, Old Dominion, and Charlotte could give the Bulldogs are 4-4 record. Hope: One more win and the Bulldogs are bowl-eligible despite their low rating.
116. North Texas Mean Green (CUSA #10; West #6)
     2020 Rank: #124 (4-6)  Off: #86  Def: #130
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #87  Def: #124
     Recruiting (20-21): #70
     Verdict: While North Texas loses 1/3 of its offense, their offensive ranking doesn't take much of a hit, nor does their defense climb much despite returning most players. Recruiting for the last two years stands well above the team's current rank, and again note that we probably underrate the CUSA due to last year's oddness. Schedule: The non-conference consists of Northwestern State at home in the opener, road games vs. SMU and Missouri, and Liberty at home. On a down year for the CUSA the Green manage to draw a tough schedule, with UTEP the only win we find as they don't play 3 of the 4 bottom teams. Hope: FIU and Louisiana Tech are within striking distance, but unfortunately both are on the road. If the new recruits develop early those could be a couple more wins.
117. Duke Blue Devils (ACC #14; Coastal #7)
     2020 Rank: #102 (2-9)  Off: #91  Def: #108
     2021 Projection: 3-9  Off: #104  Def: #123
     Recruiting (20-21): #62
     Verdict: Both on offense and defense Duke loses a lot, nearly half their production, sinking their already-low rankings on both sides of the ball. Recruiting keeps things from being a disaster though they rank pretty low there for a Power Five team. Despite all of this we see an improved result. Schedule: Duke beat Charlotte 53-19 at home last year and should handle them again on the road, though the score will be a lot closer this time around. With North Carolina A&T following, and then Kansas at home, the Blue Devils could be 3-1 assuming a loss to Northwestern. Unfortunately we see an 0-8 in conference but still, three wins. Hope: There really isn't much, as they are dead last in the ACC and it's not even close, and they don't even play the #12 and #13 ACC teams. Enjoy September, Blue Devil fans.
118. Utah State Aggies (Mtn West #12; Mountain #6)
     2020 Rank: #120 (1-5)  Off: #122  Def: #110
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #118 Def: #105
     Recruiting (20-21): #129
     Verdict: Utah State doesn't change much in our projection, with offense and defense making slight gains but weak recruiting undermining those gains. Schedule: BYU and Washington State are too tough, but Utah State should get wins over New Mexico State and North Dakota (note: not North Dakota State). In conference, most of the teams within striking distance are on the road so an 0-8 finish is probable. Hope: UNLV and New Mexico should be close and Colorado State is at home, so those are their most likely upsets. Bowl eligibility is going to be tough.
119. Navy Midshipmen (American #10)
     2020 Rank: #109 (3-7)  Off: #118  Def: #91
     2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #124  Def: #101
     Recruiting (20-21): #121
     Verdict: The armed forces rarely return a lot of production, and Navy loses more than half its offense and a quarter of its defense. Recruiting doesn't make up for it either, sinking Navy to near the bottom of the American. Schedule: We see losses to both Marshall and Notre Dame as well as to the other armed forces teams (Army and Air Force). In conference Temple is the only one we give to them. Difficulty: Last year Navy beat Temple 31-29 at home, and this year's game is on the road. Hope: The armed forces teams usually over-perform in systems based on returning production, so a few more wins might be in order.
120. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (CUSA #11; East #5)
     2020 Rank: #106 (5-7)  Off: #119  Def: #80
     2021 Projection: 3-9  Off: #121  Def: #114
     Recruiting (20-21): #107
     Verdict: Last year's offense was pretty bad and this year the Hilltoppers might have a defense to match as they lose almost half their production there. Schedule: WKY draws Indiana and Michigan State from the Big Ten and Army on the road; only the opener vs. Tennessee-Martin looks like a win non-conference. In the CUSA there should be a few more wins, probably Charlotte and Old Dominion. Overall though there's not much hope if their defense declines as we expect. Hope: If we're wrong, there are plenty of vulnerable CUSA teams to chose from for potential wins.
121. Bowling Green Falcons (MAC #12; East #6)
     2020 Rank: #128 (0-5)  Off: #129  Def: 116
     2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #129  Def: #110
     Recruiting (20-21): #92
     Verdict: Last year's terrible season doesn't get much better on paper, as poor returning production keeps the offense near-dead last in the FBS. The defense improves somewhat, and recruiting at least outpaces their ranking. Last year the Falcons lost each game by at least 25 points. Schedule: Minnesota and Tennessee look like losses, as does South Alabama even at home. Murray State should give the Falcons their first win since 2019. Unfortunately that's all we have for them; even Akron at home looks like a close loss. Hope: They can at least beat Akron and, with luck, South Alabama, another home game. But it might be that getting a single win is their only advancement.
122. Charlotte 49ers (CUSA #12; East #6)
     2020 Rank: #114 (2-4)  Off: #105  Def: #121
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #100  Def: #127
     Recruiting (20-21): #87
     Verdict: As much as they improve on offense (just a bit), they 49ers look to decline on defense, making them roughly the same as last year in profile, even a bit worse in ranking overall. Schedule: The non-conference slate looks pretty friendly with Duke, Illinois, and Georgia State, but we don't give the 49ers any of those (we do give them Gardner-Webb however). In the CUSA Charlotte is near the bottom—but not at the bottom. They should at least get a win over Old Dominion. Hope: Beating lowly Duke is not out of the question, and Illinois and Georgia State aren't unstoppable. In their wildest dreams Charlotte starts off 4-0 and then races through the conference schedule...but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
123. Kansas Jayhawks (Big Twelve #10)
     2020 Rank: #115 (0-9)  Off: #101  Def: #123
     2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #97  Def: #128
     Recruiting (20-21): #60
     Verdict: After last year's dismal 0-9 showing, you might think the Jayhawks' lack of returning production is a good thing, after all don't we want to replace these guys? But losing experience is never good. KU's recruiting is fantastic for a team near the bottom of the FBS of course, and it keeps them from dropping even further. Schedule: Naturally, Kansas scheduled Coastal Carolina during the program's two best years, and we doubt the Jayhawks win the road game after losing at home last year. Duke is a winnable game but it's on the road too. And South Dakota is no slouch, but they aren't South Dakota State and this should be a win for Kansas. In the Big Twelve, however, we don't see any success. Hope: All of their wins need to come in September, and Duke is their best shot by far for a 2nd victory. Other than that, focus on keeping the scores closer this year.
124. Temple Owls (American #11)
     2020 Rank: #123 (1-6)  Off: #125  Def: #111
     2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #126  Def: #117
     Recruiting (20-21): #111
     Verdict: Not a positive outlook for the Owls who don't score well from last year's results, returning talent, or recruiting and stay about the same overall. Schedule: Rutgers and Boston College look out of Temple's league, and even Akron probably beats the Owls in Akron. But Wagner's a sure win (we hope!). In conference play we have the Owls dead last by enough of a margin that we forecast an 0-8 finish. Hope: Akron is a winnable game, and the last game of the year is at home vs. Navy. That would give the Owls three wins, a solid improvement over last season where, to be fair, they were wiped out by Covid. If they manage to return closer to 2019 form they could really turn things around.
125. Louisiana Monroe Warhawks (Sun Belt #10; West #5)
     2020 Rank: #129 (0-10)  Off: #124  Def: #128
     2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #125  Def: #121
     Recruiting (20-21): #112
     Verdict: Winless last year, the Warhawks are a bit better this season perhaps but will it translate into any success? They still rank last in the Sun Belt by a wide margin. Schedule: Jackson State is the key game. ULM won't beat Kentucky, Liberty, or LSU. Jackson State should be a win at home, but they're an interesting team coached by Deion Sanders who brought in an FBS level recruiting class. We'll give the Warhawks the benefit of the doubt but this one is no gimme. As mentioned, ULM is so far down in the Sun Belt we project an 0-8 finish, so the Jackson State game is key to avoiding another winless year. Hope: Beat Jackson State.
126. UTEP Miners (CUSA #13; West #7)
     2020 Rank: #127 (3-5)  Off: #128  Def: #114
     2021 Projection: 3-9  Off: #127  Def: #119
     Recruiting (20-21): #130
     Verdict: UTEP won three games last year but two were FCS teams and the other was 0-10 Louisiana-Monroe. They return a lot of their bargain basement offense, lose more from their relatively decent defense, and recruit dead last in the nation over the last two seasons. Schedule: Again, schedule comes to the rescue with two early winnable games, New Mexico State on the road and Bethune Cookman at home. New Mexico, even at home is probably too good, as is Boise State obviously. Still, that's 2-2 in September. In conference we rank them above Old Dominion so they should repeat last year's 3 wins. Hope: Why stop at three? Beat New Mexico in the pre-season, and...well, that's about it as the Miners don't play Charlotte or Western Kentucky, the other teams they'd have a shot at in the CUSA. Three wins is pretty good for a bottom five team!
127. Old Dominion Monarchs (CUSA #14; East #7)
     2020 Rank*: #118 (0-0; 1-11 in 2019)  Off: #127  Def: #95
     2021 Projection: 1-11  Off: #128  Def: #125
     Recruiting (20-21): #102
     Verdict: Now we're getting into teams that didn't play in 2020, so the overall rank and the offense and defense ranks use 2019 information. And naturally the attrition since 2019 is huge, with over 40% of offensive production and 50% of defensive production gone, resulting in an abysmal projection. Not unexpected for a team that went 1-11 in 2019 and 0-0 last year. Schedule: We don't see them coming close to beating Wake Forest, Liberty, or Buffalo, but Hampton is a pretty certain win. In conference however we're projecting 0-8. Hope: Honestly, this is about the best they should expect.
128. Connecticut Huskies (Independent #5)
     2020 Rank*: #125 (0-0; 2-10 in 2019)  Off: #117  Def: #120
     2021 Projection: 3-9  Off: #119  Def: #129
     Recruiting (20-21): #122
     Verdict: Another no-show in 2020, UConn looks to get back on track despite big production losses and poor recruiting. Schedule: As an independent, UConn's schedule is all over the place. They play Clemson but also UMass; they face Power Five foes Purdue and Vanderbilt but also FCS teams Holy Cross and Yale. Hope: Three wins would be pretty good all things considered.
129. Massachusetts Minutemen (Independent #6)
     2020 Rank: #130 (0-4)  Off: #130  Def: #129
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #130  Def: #126
     Recruiting (20-21): #114
     Verdict: The bottom four teams consist of three who didn't play last year, and UMass, who went 0-4 in dismal style losing 41-0, 51-10, 24-2, and 45-0. Their offense scored 10 points total leading to a #130 ranking that we don't upgrade; their defense wasn't much better. Schedule: UMass plays two FCS teams, Rhode Island and Maine. Both might actually be better than the Minutemen but we give them the benefit of the doubt for playing at home. New Mexico State is on the schedule too but that's a road game; UConn is a home game but we still think the Huskies win that one. Hope: There really are four winnable games here, so 4-8 is in the realm of possibility, but so is 0-12.
130. New Mexico State Aggies (Independent #7)
     2020 Rank*:#126 (0-0; 2-10 in 2019; 1-1 in Spring 2021) Off: #110  Def: #127
     2021 Projection: 2-10  Off: #116  Def: #130
     Recruiting (20-21): #124
     Verdict: The toughest team to grade but it's not reckless to put them dead last. The Aggies beat only Incarnate Word and 1-11 UTEP in 2019, didn't play in 2020, and played two games this spring, beating Dixie State 36-29 after falling to Tarleton State 43-17. They lost most of their offense and defense from 2019 and it shows. Schedule: The Aggies host South Carolina State, not a gimme but should be a win at home. They also host #129 UMass, another one we give them. That's 2-10 for the worst team in the nation. Hope: Believe it or not there are other winnable games on the slate. No, not Alabama, though they actually play the Tide. They host UTEP, play at New Mexico, and host Utah State, none of which we consider wins but are all teams in the bottom 30. Win those, get one major upset, and the worst team in the FBS by far could be bowl-eligible!