Using our pre-season rankings, we cut to the chase and project the College Football Playoff standings for 2021.
Results are projected for the end of the season, and to "simulate" the College Football Playoff Committee, we use our power ratings on our projected game-by-game results, and then reordered according to the following formula to reflect the Committee's biases:
- Undefeated Power Five teams are placed first, then:
- 1-loss Power Five teams (also 2-loss if they lost conference title game to 0-loss team)
- 2-loss Power Five teams (3-loss if lost in title game to 1-loss or 0-loss team)
- Undefeated Group of Five teams
- 3-loss Power Five teams (or 4-loss team with title game loss to 0,1,or 2-loss champ)
- 1-loss Group of Five teams (or 2-loss with loss to undefeated team in title game)
- 4-loss Power Five teams
- 2-loss Group of Five teams
This isn't quite accurate for the Committee's biases, as they have ranked 3-loss Power Five teams above undefeated Group of Five teams routinely, but we're trying to steer them to be more reasonable. One can hope! But we made our formula reflect that with the notion that 11-2 teams, for example, are treated as 11-1 teams if they lost in the conference title game to an undefeated opponent. Likewise, those 10-3 are treated as having 2 losses if the circumstances are the same.
2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection (at pre-season):
rnk Team Rec %Odds Next game 1. Alabama 13-0 67.7 Miami @Atlanta 2. Oklahoma 13-0 66.4 @Tulane 3. Clemson 13-0 63.1 Georgia @Charlotte 4. Arizona St 13-0 57.8 Southern Utah 5. Indiana 12-1 20.5 @Iowa (L) 6. Wisconsin 12-1 15.2 Penn State 7. Ohio State 11-1 11.9 @Minnesota 8. UCLA 11-1 10.6 LSU 9. Miami FL 11-2 10.2 Alabama @Atlanta (L) 10. North Carolina 11-1 9.9 @Virginia Tech 11. Iowa St 11-2 9.6 Northern Iowa 12. Georgia 11-2 9.3 Clemson @Charlotte (L) 13. BYU 11-1 6.5 Arizona 14. Iowa 10-2 6.2 Indiana 15. Mississippi 10-2 5.9 Louisville @Atlanta 16. Texas A&M 10-2 5.6 Kent State 17. Wake Forest 10-2 5.3 Old Dominion 18. Boston College 10-2 5.0 Colgate 19. Coastal Carolina 13-0 3.4 The Citadel 20. Notre Dame 9-3 2.5 @FSU 21. Oklahoma St 9-3 2.2 Missouri State 22. TCU 9-3 1.9 Duquesne 23. Florida 9-3 1.6 Florida Atlantic 24. Oregon 9-4 1.2 Fresno State 25. Western Michigan 12-1 0.6 @Michigan
As you can see the top several teams reflect exactly our top four in our pre-season rankings, including surprise Arizona State at #4. After that it gets tricky as schedule becomes a big factor, as well as the Committee's slant on things. But four undefeated major conference champs are shoo-ins, with the Big Ten left out this time. Indiana is the surprise conference winner, beating Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and Ohio State as well in the regular season. The Buckeyes rank as just the 10th-best team in our pre-season list; otherwise we agree with the consensus that Alabama, Oklahoma, and Clemson will make the Playoff.
UCLA is another surprise from the Pac-12, where most have Oregon, Washington, or USC. Miami and North Carolina rep the ACC, with Miami losing to Clemson in the ACC title game but beating UNC. The Canes also lose to Alabama, putting them in the same boat as Georgia (losses to Clemson and Alabama). Iowa State at #11 is another conference title game loser; the Cyclones' 2 losses are both to Oklahoma.
At #13 we have BYU, a special case. Last year BYU was disrespected by the Committee despite their stellar play, and the cause was their admittedly weak schedule. This year BYU plays seven (7) Power Five teams plus Boise State, making it nearly the equivalent of a Power Five slate (almost all Power Five teams play 8-10 Power Five foes, 9 being typical). This year we treat BYU as a Power Five team but with an extra loss, so an 11-1 BYU is ranked as a 10-2 Power Five team; this makes sense too as BYU plays no conference title game. But who knows how the Committee will respond if BYU has a good record again this year. We only have the Cougars #32 in our pre-season rankings so it might be a moot point, but we favor them in almost every game.
A slew of 2-loss Power Five teams follow: Iowa, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, and Boston College. Getting a key win where we're projecting a loss would move them all up substantially. At #19 Coastal Carolina is projected undefeated but as a Group of Five member will undoubtedly have to settle for a New Year's Day bid. Again, one can hope that they'll be treated fairly by the Committee since they start in the AP top 25, and as the Power Five teams lose their "idealized" record the Chanticleers might move up quite a bit. Still, their schedule won't rate well and the Committee really penalizes teams for a poor schedule, even if they dominate those foes the way a top ten team would.
We have 3-loss teams Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Florida next. Notre Dame plays 9 Power Five foes is considered a Power Five team; all other independents are considered Group of Five (though as noted BYU is a grey area this year). By the end of the year 9-3 teams will rank a lot higher as these projected Win-Loss records are "pristine" with no upsets yet. The real distribution of records is a lot choppier; there are more losses so 3-loss Power Five teams will be higher, possibly in the top ten (though we hope not). Oregon rounds out this list of 9-3 teams, as their 9-4 record reflects a "loss" to undefeated ASU in the Pac-12 title game.
Finally the 1-loss Group of Five teams make an appearance; MAC teams Western Michigan, Ball State, and Toledo are in a log-jam with only the Broncos making the cut for now. Our pre-season top 130 rankings have MAC teams at #11, #12, #17 and #18 but this is more realistic. Likely, one of these three teams will be left standing and end up in the Committee's final top 25, as most will probably lose the tough games our projections have them winning. Another projected 1-loss Group of Five team is Marshall while 2-loss Louisiana-Lafayette counts, too, due to a conference title game loss. These teams will make an appearance if teams currently on the list falter.
By the end of the year there will be several 4-loss Power Five teams and maybe even some 2-loss Group of Five squads, but they will be ranked too low to make a difference by that time.
This week: Three big games could rock the rankings for next week:
- #1 Alabama takes on #9 Miami in Atlanta. A Miami win would change everything and possibly put the 'Canes in the top four
- #3 Clemson and #12 Georgia battle in Charlotte. Obviously Clemson is favored and the Bulldogs would shake things up by winning (also putting their name in for an immediate top four consideration)
- #5 Indiana at #14 Iowa. We have the Hawkeyes winning at home, handing Indiana their only loss of the season. An Indiana win would make the Hoosiers undefeated and really complicate things!
Other big games with monster potential to change things: #6 Wisconsin hosts Penn State; #8 UCLA hosts LSU; #20 Notre Dame at Florida State; and #25 Western Michigan at Michigan. In every case the team with the ranking is favored by our projection, so an alternate result will sink the ranked team. In other words, this is where Western Michigan has to prove they are worthy of our pre-season projection, crazy or not!
And of course any other upsets of the teams listed will affect them negatively. Even close calls will have some (muted) effect as score margin is taken into account, though it isn't nearly as important as just winning.
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