Like it has in every other way, 2020 has been a weird college football year. It's been a weird year in power rankings, because of mis-matched schedules and lack of conference interplay. So much so that we've had a disclaimer on our power ratings all year long.
This shows up most in our All-Division rankings. Normally, there is play between the FBS, FCS, Div II, Div III, and NAIA teams to make a solid pecking order. Not so this year, where FCS, D-II and D-III hardly played a game, leaving no connection to the NAIA, so that teams like Morningside rank high, disconnected from the real world.
But the real story is the conferences. Those that didn't have any non-conference schedule rank only among themselves, their rankings dropped into the rest of college football meaningless. The SEC, Big Ten, and MAC didn't play any inter-conference games. Thus Alabama and Ohio State look good, but not great. And you couldn't tell Buffalo from Alabama and Ohio State—the best teams in the MAC look about the same as the best in the SEC or Big Ten.
The Pac-12 was in the same boat—but they did play ONE non-conference game during the season. Colorado beat San Diego State in a hastily-scheduled game and won, 20-10. That win, by the team judged the 8th best in the Pac-12, boosted the entire conference to an unreasonable height.
That small sample of one game, combined with another small sample—Arizona State's 4 Pac-12 games—put the Sun Devils at #1 among all teams.
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk] 1. Arizona St 2-2 52.98 57.05 [ 1] 4.07 [ 1] 2. Clemson 10-1 47.91 56.21 [ 2] 8.29 [ 7] 3. Southern Cal 5-1 45.60 51.28 [ 5] 5.68 [ 3] 4. Oregon 4-2 43.27 51.84 [ 4] 8.56 [ 8] 5. UCLA 3-4 42.66 53.15 [ 3] 10.48 [ 16] 6. Utah 3-2 40.61 47.12 [ 16] 6.50 [ 4] 7. Brigham Young 11-1 39.62 49.99 [ 10] 10.37 [ 14] 8. Washington 3-1 37.46 46.49 [ 19] 9.03 [ 9] 9. Oklahoma 8-2 36.23 48.41 [ 14] 12.17 [ 23] 10. Notre Dame 10-1 35.91 42.51 [ 30] 6.60 [ 5] 11. Stanford 4-2 35.67 46.05 [ 21] 10.37 [ 15] 12. Colorado 4-1 35.58 47.63 [ 15] 12.05 [ 22]
ASU's gaudy ranking was mostly the result of their 70-7 beatdown of Arizona. Things like this resolve themselves after a few more games are played but for ASU there were no more games, so that's where they stood, 2-2 and at #1. In all there were a ridiculous eight Pac-12 teams in the top 12.
When Texas played Colorado last night, it provided a 2nd comparison of the Pac-12 to the rest of the world, and the result was not in the Pac-12's favor as the Longhorns won 55-23. Small samples make for huge movements and the results were dramatic.
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk] 1. Clemson 10-1 48.18 57.15 [ 1] 8.96 [ 2] 2. Brigham Young 11-1 39.93 50.12 [ 8] 10.18 [ 5] 3. Oklahoma 8-2 39.91 52.07 [ 3] 12.16 [ 14] 4. Notre Dame 10-1 37.15 44.05 [ 20] 6.90 [ 1] 5. Texas 7-3 35.92 54.84 [ 2] 18.91 [ 54] 6. Arizona St 2-2 35.53 48.04 [ 10] 12.50 [ 15] 7. Iowa St 8-3 35.47 44.45 [ 18] 8.98 [ 3] 8. Cincinnati 9-0 34.42 43.73 [ 21] 9.30 [ 4] 9. Morningside 8-0 33.51 50.74 [ 5] 17.23 [ 41] 10. North Carolina 8-3 31.04 51.25 [ 4] 20.21 [ 65] 11. Oklahoma St 8-3 30.79 42.44 [ 27] 11.64 [ 11] 12. Alabama 11-0 30.58 50.25 [ 7] 19.67 [ 62]
Arizona State dropped to #6, still unreasonable but not unexpected in a 4-game sample. Colorado dropped from #12 to #50. Southern Cal fell from #3 to #17. In short, things look a lot more realistic for the Pac-12's rankings.
The Pac-12 plays one more game, when Oregon faces Iowa State. That game will also have a big effect on the Pac-12's placement. Ultimately two games featuring Colorado and one with Oregon will have to tell us everything we know about the Pac-12, without using knowledge gleaned from previous years.
And it's only that previous knowledge that tells us Alabama is a top four team. Without it, nothing makes them better than any other conference leader. The SEC plays a number of bowl games, 7 so far have not been cancelled, plus Alabama's playoff games. These game, assuming the trends of previous years hold, will push the SEC up the rankings and establish it as the best conference. Alabama will rocket up from #12 to somewhere in the top few, depending on whether they beat the top teams in the playoff games.
The Big Ten is in the same boat. With no comparisons, their rankings mean nothing outside the conference, but they have three bowl games coming up, plus Ohio State's participation in the Playoff.
And the Mid-American conference. They recently joined the rest of the connected world when Buffalo beat Marshall 17-10; that single game determines every single MAC team's relative ranking, but luckily it did a pretty good job as Buffalo ended up probably about where they should, at #30. Ball State has a game with San Jose State that will raise or lower this appraisal.
Today, Wisconsin plays Wake Forest, connecting the Big Ten, and Florida plays Oklahoma, moving the SEC into the mix. Those single games could sink or boost both conferences to a ridiculous degree. But by Saturday both conferences will play several other bowl games—and the first playoff games—so the madness should average out a bit.
Both the Big Ten and SEC should see a big boost from tonight's games. Since both conferences are currently ranked as purely "average" conferences, and both are presumably among the top conferences, an interconference comparison game should be good for both. And the current ratings bear this out. Going by our All-Division ratings, Wake Forest would be favored by 19 points over Wisconsin, and Oklahoma by 25 over Florida (or, in our FBS-only Strength ratings, 7 and 12 points). The oddsmakers instead have Wisconsin a near 10 point favorite, and Oklahoma just a 7 point favorite.
Today's games, if they go as expected, would rearrange the conference pecking order quite a bit as the Big Ten and SEC join the interconnected world. Ohio State and Alabama would be the biggest beneficiaries. And we will get our first fair comparison between these teams and Clemson and Notre Dame—even if each is linked only by a single game.
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