SportsRatings: College Football

2019-2020 National Championship Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #1 LSU vs. #3 Clemson

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

National Championship in New Orleans, LA
Time: Monday, January 13 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#1 LSU Tigers (14-0) vs. #3 Clemson Tigers (14-0)

For the 2nd straight year there will be two 14-0 teams vying for the national championship. Last year it was Clemson and Alabama; this year it will be Clemson and another SEC team: LSU.

Vegas line/spread: LSU by 5.5 (over/under 69.5)

LSU started out a hefty 5-point favorite and it's gone up a half point since.

Strength power rating:   #2 LSU 35,  #3 Clemson 34    
Adjusted for turnovers: LSU  33-29
Median game rating: Clemson  33-32

Clemson and LSU are basically tied in our Strength power rating, but we give LSU partial home field advantage for playing in their own backyard and they makes them about a 1 1/2 point favorite. Both teams rely heavily on turnovers, Clemson a bit more. LSU's recent big outlier games are discounted by the Median comparison which also erases Clemson's one poor outing, making them a narrow favorite there.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -5 Spread
LSU	52%	42%
Clemson	48%	58%

As our power rating calls the game a lot closer than Vegas, we see LSU taking a very narrow majority straight up and Clemson winning vs. the opening spread most of the time. These comparisons do give LSU partial HFA; they don't weigh recent games more, which is one reason LSU is a bigger favorite by the oddsmakers.

When LSU has the ball

LSU scoring offense: #2	Clemson scoring defense: #1
LSU total offense: #1	Clemson total defense: #1
LSU rushing offense: #37	Clemson rushing defense: #14
LSU passing offense: #2	Clemson passing defense: #2

LSU's offense is pretty incredible, ranking #2 in adjusted scoring and #1 in adjusted total yardage. But unlike Oklahoma's very questionable defense, they are now up against the best defense in college football. We correctly forecast a huge LSU blowout win against the Sooners because Oklahoma's red zone defense was #126; Clemson's is a reasonable #17, and they are #1 in scoring defense and in total yardage adjusted for opposition. 

LSU lives by the pass (#2 in the nation), and they are decent on the ground, too. Against Oklahoma Joe Burrow threw for 7 touchdowns and 493 yards. Clemson is #2 against the pass in per-play adjusted stats, whereas the Sooners were #12. LSU will have a much harder time getting yards in the air or on the ground against Clemson than they did against Oklahoma.

Joe Burrow rightly won the Heisman for his 2019 season. After the Oklahoma game he now has 5,208 yards and an insane 55 TDs vs. 6 interceptions. Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson combine for almost 3,000 receiving yards with 18 TD catches apiece. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 1,304 yards and 16 TDs—he's a big part of why their red zone offense is so good. He wasn't 100% for the Oklahoma game and ran the ball only twice; with 2 weeks to recover he should be fully ready to go against Clemson.

Clemson's defense is a whole different beast than Okahoma's. They have 41 sacks on the year and 19 interceptions, constituting a big-play threat to slow down Burrows. They're tied for #1 in non-sack tackles for loss, too.

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson scoring offense: #5	LSU scoring defense: #16
Clemson total offense: #7	LSU total defense: #16
Clemson rushing offense: #16	LSU rushing defense: #17
Clemson passing offense: #20	LSU passing defense: #14

Clemson has one of the top offenses in the country by any measure, while LSU has a solid but not impenetrable defense. The yardage matchups are pretty similar in terms of rushing and passing, with both teams in the top 20 all around.

Clemson's Travis Etienne has 1,536 yards on the ground and Lyn-J Dixon and QB Trevor Lawrence combine for another 1,000+. Through the air, Lawrence accounts for 3,431 yards and 36 TDs with 8 interceptions, and his ratio over the last 11 games is 31:3. Tee Higgins (1,115 yards) is the long-ball receiver while Justyn Ross (61 rec) is the top target.

LSU's defense isn't the equal of the Ohio State defense that Clemson just faced. It mostly rises to the occasion, but other times has had lapses. They have 35 sacks and 17 picks on the season, led by Darrel Stingley Jr.'s six.

Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): LSU #86    Clemson #121

Sadly, the two teams competing for the national title are relatively piss-poor when it comes to special teams, with Clemson ranking in the bottom ten! After missing one vs. Ohio State, Clemson's kickers are now 13 of 22 on field goals for the year which isn't good in a projected close game.

 

LSU's season (14-0)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (10)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (5)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)

1. Georgia Southern 55-3
   
2. @Texas 45-38
   
3. Northwestern St 65-14
   
4. @Vanderbilt 66-38
   
5. Utah St 42- 6
   
6. #9 Florida 42-28
   
7. @Mississippi St 36-13
   
8. #12 Auburn 23-20
   
9. @#13 Alabama 46-41
   
10. @Mississippi 58-37
    
11. Arkansas 56-20
    
12. Texas A&M 50-7
    
13. @#5 Georgia 37-10
14. =#4 Oklahoma 63-28

LSU never had a bad game on offense. They had a few on defense: game #4, giving up 38 at Vanderbilt, and game #10, giving up 37 at Mississippi. The rest of the games were at least decent and sometimes great, like games 1, 5, 7, and 8. And then there were the amazing last three games, but we'll get to that.

When we say they never played a bad game on offense, we really mean they rarely played a less-than-awesome offensive game. At least 7 games were off-the-charts great, like games 1, 4, 6, 9, and 10. And of course the final three games.

In all, LSU beat 10 bowl teams and five top 25 teams. The first three wins were close: #9 Florida by 14, #12 Auburn by 3, #13 Alabama by 5. The other two are part of their final three games. Here we go:

First, 50-7 over Texas A&M. We can see how amazing this win is by comparing it to the Aggies 4 other losses, to #3 Clemson, #5 Georgia, #12 Auburn, and #13 Alabama. They lost those games by 14, 6, 8, and 19 points. LSU beat them by 43 points. LSU scored more on them than any of those four ranked teams, and held them to fewer points than any of the four did.

Almost the equal of that was the 37-10 beatdown of #5 Georgia, and the 63-28 demolition of #4 Oklahoma, neither of which need any explanation as to why they are incredible performances.

These three games were LSU playing 20 points better than they did on average for the season—which of course, includes those three games in the calculation. Put another way, they've played about 26 points better than they did over the first 11 games.

 

Clemson's season (14-0)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)

1. Georgia Tech 52-14
   
2. Texas A&M 24-10
   
3. @Syracuse 41-6
   
4. UNC-Charlotte 52-10
   
5. @North Carolina 21-20
   
6. Florida St 45-14
   
7. @Louisville 45-10
   
8. Boston College 59-7
   
9. Wofford 59-14
   
10. @North Carolina St 55-10
    
11. Wake Forest 52-3
    
12. @South Carolina 38-3
    
13. =#24 Virginia 62-17
14. =#2 Ohio State 29-23

Clemson beat almost as many bowl-eligible opponents as LSU, but they only beat two Playoff Committee top 25 teams—#24 Virginia, in the ACC championship game, and of course #2 Ohio State to advance to the championship game.

Clemson's worst game was of course at North Carolina, where they were lucky to avoid a loss that might have put them out of the playoff. Since then they've gotten better, and there seems to be an upward curve to their game play, culminating in their best games yet vs. Wake Forest, Virginia, and Ohio State. Mainly it's on offense, where they've played a lot better in the last seven games.

Clemson's last four games have been almost as dominant as LSU's last three games, so it's really a clash of two top teams at their very best. We thought Clemson might be a bit rusty at facing top competition—and maybe they were as Ohio State built a 16-0 lead—but they recovered well and LSU won't be a shock to their system.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• LSU's season: +4 wins; Clemson's season: +0 wins
• LSU's momentum: +0 wins; Clemson's momentum: +0 wins
• LSU glad to be here? YES; Clemson glad to be here: YES
• LSU time zones from home: 0; Clemson time zones from home: 1;
• LSU coaching situation: unchanged; Clemson coaching situation: unchanged

LSU finished last season 10-3 post-bowl game, and after one bowl game this year's squad has 14 wins. Clemson was 14-0 at this point last year. That does reflect what has to be a bit of extra hunger in LSU that can't be matched by Clemson, and in the past has made a difference in national title games with defending champs attempting to repeat. The other psychological factor here is home field advantage, another thing that has been a factor in national championship games in the past.

Here is the history of defending national champions playing for the national title, since 1991:

• 1992 11-0 Miami (-8): LOST to Alabama (12-0), 34-13
• 1995 11-0 Nebraska (-3): beat Florida (12-0) 62-24
• 2000 11-1 Florida State (-10): LOST to Oklahoma (12-0) 13-2
• 2002 12-0 Miami (-11): LOST to Ohio State (13-0) 31-24 2OT.
• 2005 12-0 USC (-7): LOST to Texas (12-0) 41-38
• 2012 12-1 Alabama (-10) beat Notre Dame (12-0) 42-14
• 2016 14-0 Alabama (-6) LOST to Clemson (13-1) 35-31
• 2018 14-0 Alabama (-5) LOST to Clemson (14-0) 44-16

There are two things to note: one, defending national champions are just 2-6 when defending their crown. And two, the defending national champion has always been the favorite, at least in the last 30 years. So while the odds seem against Clemson, the oddsmakers are against them too which makes this an unusual situation. You can look at the games above, and in the six losses overconfidence was clearly an issue in most of them. Does being an underdog erase that? The other probable issue was that the other team was hungrier; that issue doesn't go away. 

Here is the recent history of national championship games played on a home field, or nearly so:

• 1983 Miami 31, Nebraska 30 in Miami FL
• 1987 Miami 20, Oklahoma 14 in Miami FL
• 1994 Nebraska 24, Miami 17 in Miami FL
• 2003 LSU 21, Oklahoma 14 in New Orleans, LA
• 2003 USC 28, Michigan 14 in Pasadena, CA
• 2005 Texas 41, USC 38 in Pasadena, CA
• 2007 LSU 38, Ohio State 24 in New Orleans, LA
• 2011 Alabama 21, LSU 0 in New Orleans, LA
• 2017 Alabama 26, Georgia 23 in Atlanta, GA

In nine games, the "home" team won 5 times. Probably the three most relevant cases are the 2003, 2007, and 2011 appearances of LSU in New Orleans; the Tigers won the first two but lost to Alabama (despite having beaten the Tide in Tuscaloosa earlier in the year).

Final analysis

Without considering anything else, our power rating pretty much punts on this comparison; we get Clemson by 6/10th of a point. If judge each team's game against an FCS program—blowouts over Northwestern State and Wofford—as inconsequential and throw them out, we get LSU by a quarter point. So there's not much difference between these teams. They match up well on offense and defense, vs. the run and vs. the pass.

But a host of other factors favor LSU: Clemson being defending national champ, LSU playing near home, and LSU playing extremely well in the last few games.

Six of the last eight defending national champs have lost their attempt to repeat, doing an average of about 7 1/2 points worse than expected. I think much of this is due to overconfidence, which Clemson won't have as the Vegas underdog, but LSU will be just a bit hungrier, which probably is the other explanation for why it is so hard to repeat even when you're one game away. 

LSU has won the national title two of the three times they've played for it in New Orleans. They're 4-1 in the Sugar Bowl since the year 2000. How much is their partial home field advantage worth? Hard to say but it's more than zero, and less than the normal 3.5 points. 

LSU has played three of the best games of any team recently in beating Texas A&M, Georgia, and Oklahoma by 43, 27, and 35 points. Clemson counters with recent wins over Wake Forest, Virginia, and Ohio State by 49, 35, and 6, but LSU's performances are roughly 5 points better (and may explain the Vegas spread).

Add these all together and you have a likely LSU victory, probably by about 10 points if the adjustments are cumulative. But are there any adjustments that favor Clemson?

Maybe. After the Oklahoma game, some LSU players seemed to be getting on the verge of overconfident. We figured Clemson would be the ones to fall prey to that, but since they're underdogs it's very unlikely. Now LSU is the one who might have to be considered cocky. Especially when you have players saying things like "we go into every game thinking no one can stop us." Is that good cocky, or just good confidence? Might be the latter. But how about, "I don't see how a defense can stop us" ? That one seems delusional. After facing Oklahoma, LSU will probably find out how a defense can stop them when they face Clemson.

It might mean the LSU offense will face adversity like it hasn't in some time. And it's bound to fire up Clemson's defense, which is definitely capable of holding LSU to half the points they scored on Oklahoma. LSU's overconfidence doesn't get rid of their other advantages. But after thinking about it a while, I think it could be the deciding factor in a close game.

Prediction:  Clemson 31, LSU 30

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Lending Tree Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Louisiana Lafayette vs. Miami, Ohio

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Lending Tree Bowl in Mobile, AL
Time: Saturday, January 6 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (10-3)  vs. Miami Ohio Redhawks (8-5)

The MAC champion takes on the Sun Belt runner-up.

Vegas line/spread: ULL by 14 (over/under 54.5)

The line has basically remained steady by game day, with the over/under down a few points from 56.5.

Strength power rating:   #33 UL-Lafayette  36,   #94 Miami OH  17    
Adjusted for turnovers:  UL-Lafayette  35-16
Median game rating:  UL-Lafayette  34-19
Road play rating:  UL-Lafayette  35-17

Louisiana-Lafayette's 10-3 record isn't a fluke or just the product of an easy schedule, they're really good, and rank almost in the top 25 in Strength. That wayyy outclasses Miami of Ohio, who is just inside the top 100. Hence our power rating favors the Cajuns by 19 points, the biggest margin of the bowl season. The median is closest to the 14-point Vegas spread, as it culls out some of Miami's terrible games.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -14 Spread
UL-Lafayette	83%	56%
Miami OH	17%	44%

Unsurprisingly, 5 out of 6 of the game comparisons tilt toward the Cajuns. The Cajuns also cover in the majority of trials against a 2-touchdown spread.

When ULL has the ball

ULL scoring offense: #40	Miami OH scoring defense: #80
ULL total offense: #27	Miami OH total defense: #70
ULL rushing offense: #12	Miami OH rushing defense: #77
ULL passing offense: #73	Miami OH passing defense: #44

Louisiana is 11th in the nation in average points scored. Their admittedly easy schedule pulls that down to a still-respectable #40. The impressive part of their offense is clearly the running game, which ranks almost in the top ten in adjusted yardage per game. The Cajuns have three backs with over 750 yards, led by Elijah Mitchell with 1,092. Miami has a pretty good pass defense, but ULL runs twice as often as they pass and they have a big advantage here.

When Miami OH has the ball

Miami OH scoring offense: #97	ULL scoring defense: #37
Miami OH total offense: #120	ULL total defense: #68
Miami OH rushing offense: #111	ULL rushing defense: #100
Miami OH passing offense: #109	ULL passing defense: #54

Miami needs some help on offense, ranking in triple digits in all the yardage categories. Given UL-Lafayette's defense, they will probably have more luck running the ball. ULL's defense is somewhat lenient in giving up yardage but clamps down on the points, boasting the #10 red zone defense.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): UL-Lafayette #28    Miami OH #3

Here's where we have a marquee matchup—on special teams! ULL is respectable in this category but the Redhawks are superstars of special teams. Kicker Sam Sloman has made 25 of 29 attempts, including 4 of 5 from 50+. 

 

ULL's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. =Mississippi St 28-38
   
2. Liberty 35-14
   
3. Texas Southern 77-6
   
4. @Ohio U. 45-25
   
5. @Georgia Southern 37-24
   
6. #20 Appalachian St 7-17
   
7. @Arkansas St 37-20
   
8. Texas St 31-3
   
9. @Coastal Carolina 48-7
   
10. @South Alabama 37-27
    
11. Troy 53-3
    
12. Louisiana-Monroe 31-30
    
13. @#20 Appalachian St 38-45

Louisiana-Lafayette opened with a narrow loss on a neutral field to an SEC team, then won four straight. Note that the 77-6 blowout of Texas Southern rates only slightly better than a 21 point win over Liberty, and not as impressive as beating bowl-bound Ohio on the road by 20. The Cajuns hosted Appalachian State and fell short, 17-7, but won six straight after that, looking better and better. They got two more blowout wins that really were impressive: beating Coastal Carolina 48-7, and especially, topping Troy 53-3. Could they beat the Mountaineers give a second try? This time they were on the road, and came close, but suffered defeat again, 45-38. At 10-3 with two losses to the same top 25 team, ULL is one of the country's overlooked gems.

 

Miami OH's season (8-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. @#16 Iowa 14-38
   
2. Tennessee Tech 48-17
   
3. @#21 Cincinnati 13-35
   
4. @#2 Ohio State 5-76
   
5. Buffalo 34-20
   
6. @Western Michigan 16-38
   
7. Northern Illinois 27-24
   
8. @Kent St 23-16
   
9. @Ohio U. 24-21
   
10. Bowling Green 44-3
    
11. Akron 20-17
    
12. @Ball St 27-41
    
13. @Central Michigan 26-21

Miami started the year 1-3, but you can't really blame them. Blame whoever scheduled this shit-show. Really, playing two (good) Big Ten teams and a top AAC team in the pre-conference season? Miami fared reasonably well at #16 Iowa and #21 Cincinnati but by the time #2 Ohio State rolled around it was a 76-5 mess. Getting a field goal and a safety and nothing else is almost worse than getting shut out, somehow. Back home, they amazingly rebounded with a huge win over Buffalo, before suffering another really bad defeat. Note: losing to Western Michigan 38-16 is roughly the equivalent of a 71 point loss to Ohio State in our power rating.

Then the winning started: five in a row, including two more bowl-bound teams, and ending with a 20-17 home win over Akron. Note: beating Akron 20-17 at home rates much LOWER than losing to Ohio State by 71. They unsurprisingly lost the next game to Ball State but then pulled out one more good showing at Central Michigan to win the MAC crown. 

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• ULL's season: +5 wins**; Miami OH's season: +3 wins**
• ULL's momentum: +0 wins; Miami OH's momentum: +3 wins
• ULL glad to be here? yes; Miami OH glad to be here: YES
• ULL time zones from home: 0; Miami OH time zones from home: 1;
• ULL coaching situation: unchanged; Miami OH coaching situation: unchanged

Neither team went bowling last year; Louisiana was 5-7, Miami 6-6 and not chosen. Both teams added a slew of wins to their record, so both should be happy about going bowling, period. Miami a bit more, maybe, since they needed a win streak to make it, and Louisiana-Lafayette might think their 10-win season deserved better (I think so!)

Final analysis

It's not often that overconfidence becomes a problem in a minor bowl game. Usually it's in a bigger bowl between two major conference teams, or in a mid-level bowl when a major conference team thinks it is slumming it just to show up. But here we wonder if Louisiana Lafayette might be a little overconfident. They were 10-3 with 2 losses to a top 25 team and an SEC team. Meanwhile they are playing a Miami team that got beat 76-5, when ULL beat another team 77-6! Sure, the teams involved were Ohio State and Texas Southern, but you get the point!

We should look at how the teams do when they have some motivation, and a few games at the end of the season are telling. UL-Lafayette rolled through the 2nd half of its schedule, recovering nicely from the App State loss. But they picked their spots to shine: for example, they beat traditional Sun Belt power Troy 53-3, as if they were making a big statement in front of the home crowd. They were able to be "up" for that game, but against rival ULM they were flat. Why? It might have been overconfidence. The Warhawks were just 5-6 going in, and the Cajuns were 9-2. They won just 31-30. Sure, rivalry games are unpredictable but there should be your utmost motivation. Instead it was probably their worst outing of the year.

Miami of Ohio, meanwhile, had to travel to Central Michigan to play for the MAC title. Two games earlier they escaped vs. Akron 20-17 and lost to Ball State. But suddenly, with something to play for they upset the Chippewas 26-21 and became MAC champs. 

If either team is going to be overconfident it's the Cajuns, who are about the biggest favorite by the spread of any team in the bowl season. The Redhawks are again the underdog and will take the game seriously. I don't blame the Cajuns for thinking this game will be a walk in the park; if you look at the stats, it should be. Many a team has been a 14-17 point favorite and, disappointed at their bowl placement, lost outright. Normally that's a major conference team missing out on say, the Rose Bowl, not a Sun Belt team wishing it played in December rather than January 6th, but still, the sentiment remains. If they come out flat for whatever reason and Miami plays like they did vs. Central Michigan, we could see an upset. If I were reviewing a team that just missed out on the Rose Bowl with this same situation I'd call for a 10-point win by the Redhawks.

But by losing to App State ULL only missed out on the New Orleans Bowl, the one they go to almost every year. And I don't have the heart to pick against the Cajuns, who have been one of my favorite teams this year and deserve more top 25 votes. The way they played down the stretch, it's more a matter of feast or famine. Either the Cajuns blow out the Redhawks like they did Coastal Carolina and Troy, or they squeeze past them like they did South Alabama and ULM. Meaning they win by more than 6 touchdowns or by about 6 points. Since we expect another strong effort (and some long field goals) from Miami and some overconfidence from ULL, we opt for the latter. But ULL still wins; they do have some pride in having rebounded so strong from last year's 5-7 showing.

Prediction:  Louisiana-Lafayette  30,  Miami OH  24

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Armed Forces Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX
Time: Thursday, January 3 at 11:30am ET
TV: ESPN

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5) vs. Tulane Green Wave (6-6)

Two teams from roughly the same neck of the woods (or Gulf) take a trip up to Fort Worth.

Vegas line/spread: Tulane by 7 (over/under 56.5)

Strength power rating:   #47 Tulane  34,   #85 Southern Miss  23    
Adjusted for turnovers: Tulane  35-26
Median game rating: Tulane  38-21
Road play rating:  Tulane  29-20

The Strength power rating thinks pretty highly of Tulane, and not so highly of Southern Miss, putting the Wave in the top 50 and the Eagles in the bottom 50 (of 130 FBS teams). This leads to an 11-point margin, which can be adjusted for various reasons but one interesting one is median rating: Tulane gains a lot, while Southern Miss falls, resulting in a 17-point spread. Or it shrinks to 9 points when we look at road play, where both teams are lousy but Tulane much lousier. Vegas has a pretty standard 7 point spread, favoring the Wave quite a bit less than we do.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Southern Miss	21%	34%
Tulane	79%	66%

Tulane wins 4 of 5 game comparisons straight up, and still about 2 of 3 against a one-touchdown spread.

When Southern Miss has the ball

Southern Miss scoring offense: #94	Tulane scoring defense: #60
Southern Miss total offense: #62	Tulane total defense: #54
Southern Miss rushing offense: #109	Tulane rushing defense: #57
Southern Miss passing offense: #23	Tulane passing defense: #42

Southern Miss gains an average amount of yardage (total offense) but has trouble converting that to points, as their #94 scoring offense attests. Their problem is turnovers, where they rank #119 in turnover margin. QB Jack Abraham (3,329 yards, 18 TDs) leads the top 25 worthy Eagle passing attack; if he could cut down on the 15 interceptions they'd be even better. Tulane's defense is pretty average, and they don't get a lot of picks themselves so maybe Southern Miss will have a good day through the air, which would help since they aren't much of a rushing threat.

When Tulane has the ball

Tulane scoring offense: #41	Southern Miss scoring defense: #74
Tulane total offense: #20	Southern Miss total defense: #52
Tulane rushing offense: #8	Southern Miss rushing defense: #56
Tulane passing offense: #90	Southern Miss passing defense: #106

Contrasting Southern Miss' air attack is Tulane's ground game. The Wave reside in the top ten, post-adjustment for opposition, in rushing yards per game. Like the Eagles, they're pretty one-dimensional. QB Justin McMillan leads the team with 704 yards (net, after subtracting 173 sack yards), with four more running backs each topping 300 yards (two are questionable for the game). All told, Tulane runs the ball nearly twice for each pass attempt. Southern Miss' defense is about like Tulane's: average. They're bad against the pass, but that's not their main worry here.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Southern Miss #23    Tulane #85

One area where Southern Miss might catch up is special teams, where they outrank the Wave considerably according to ESPN's FPI. 

 

Southern Miss's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

1. Alcorn St 38-10
   
2. @Mississippi St 15-38
   
3. @Troy 47-42
   
4. @#13 Alabama 7-49
   
5. UTEP 31-13
   
6. North Texas 45-27
   
7. @Louisiana Tech 30-45
   
8. @Rice 20-6
   
9. UAB 37-2
   
10. @UTSA 36-17
    
11. Western Kentucky 10-28
    
12. @Florida Atlantic 17-34

This chart shows why Southern Miss's median rating is so much lower than their mean rating—the presence of several upside outliers, especially the 37-2 (yes, that's the real score) win over UAB, the only bowl-bound team they beat. Their losses were generally sordid affairs, even if the teams they lost to were all pretty good. And that's the thing: the Golden Eagles only beat bad teams. Alcorn State is in the FCS, and Troy, UTEP, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA rank #106, 127, 109, 115, 103, and 124 in Strength. Against teams in the triple digits, the Eagles play well, at least well enough to win. They played poorly against the other teams, who all rank 89th or above. This is not good news to hear before playing the #47 ranked team.

 

Tulane's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. Florida Int'l 42-14
   
2. @#12 Auburn 6-24
   
3. Missouri St 58-6
   
4. Houston 38-31
   
5. @Army 42-33
   
6. Connecticut 49-7
   
7. @#17 Memphis 17-47
   
8. @#23 Navy 38-41
   
9. Tulsa 38-26
   
10. @Temple 21-29
    
11. Central Florida 31-34
    
12. @SMU 20-37

Tulane's 6-6 season doesn't sound that great, and they only beat one bowl team. But look who they lost to: #12 Auburn, #17 Memphis, and #23 Navy, as well as 8-4 Temple, 9-3 UCF, and 10-2 SMU. And half those losses were pretty impressive: they lost by 18 at Auburn, by 3 at Navy, and by 3 to UCF. The other three losses are the performances that, when computing the median, vanish while the rest of their consistent body of work remains. The three bad games were also all on the road, leading to Tulane's terrible road-game rating. Tulane started 5-1, and finished 1-5, but looking at their schedule that's nothing to be ashamed of.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Southern Miss's season: +1 win; Tulane's season: +0 wins
• Southern Miss's momentum: -1 win; Tulane's momentum: -4 wins
• Southern Miss glad to be here? yes; Tulane glad to be here: yes
• Southern Miss time zones from home: 0; Tulane time zones from home: 0;
• Southern Miss coaching situation: unchanged; Tulane coaching situation: unchanged

Not much to see here except what we already saw: Tulane starting the season 5-1, then suffering a 1-5 finish. We noted above that it was the result of their back-loaded schedule, but losing 5 of 6 is still losing 5 of 6 no matter how you slice it. On the other hand, both teams finished on a losing streak, so Southern Miss isn't immune from feeling dejected about the end of the season. Still, we posit that both teams are glad to be at this bowl: Southern Miss because they didn't go bowling last year despite qualifying at 6-5; and Tulane because they probably want to prove they are better than their 6-6 record (at least, they should be motivated by this!).

Final analysis

Tulane played very well, and very consistently, in the first half of the season. In the 2nd half many of their performances faltered as they went 1-5. Is there a reason to discount their earlier play, and assume their performances in the last 6 games are more representative of what we will see during the bowl game? Maybe, but looking at the teams they played in those 3 games I'm not sure it's warranted. If they were playing poorly both winning and losing, home and road, against good teams and bad, then yes, you could probably say they took a step down. Instead, all three games were to very good teams and all were on the road.

But will going 1-5 in their last 6 games be a psychological drag on the team? In the past we've looked at a lot of bowl games, and we figured that the teams that finished 1-5—or even 0-6—were struggling in the 2nd half and disappointed at how the season turned out. Amazingly, most of these teams did very well in their bowl games. What's the explanation? It could be that the big break between the end of season and bowl game led to re-evaluation and a new attitude, or that they felt they had nothing to lose after their season turned out so poorly. And some of those teams didn't really play any worse, they just lost a bunch of games. So we don't know what to make of Tulane's slump, except that it might not apply at all to a game against Southern Miss.

We noted how Southern Miss only beat teams that ranked below #100 in Strength, and had poor outings against teams at their own level or higher. Now let's turn to Tulane. The Wave lost to six good teams, but did they beat any good teams? Or at least, any teams ranked as high as Southern Miss? FIU ranks #110, Houston is #60, Army #87, UConn #125, and Tulsa 59. So the answer is yes: they beat Army, who is rated roughly as high as Southern Miss, and Houston and Tulsa, who are well above. Meanwhile the closest teams Southern Miss played to Tulane's level are #40 Mississippi State and #39 Florida Atlantic. 

Let's just average all those game performances together for each and I think it will give an indication of how the teams will do against each other. We get 19 points. Pretty close to the median's 17 point estimate. See, we could have just consulted the median rather than doing all that work.

Prediction:  Tulane  39,  Southern Miss  20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Nevada vs. Ohio

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Fmaous Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID
Time: Wednesday, January 3 at 3:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) vs. Ohio Bobcats (6-6)

It's either the bowl with the best name ever, or the worst name ever, you decide.

Vegas line/spread: Ohio by 8 (over/under 59.5)

The line favoring Ohio moved from 7 1/2 to 8 by game day, with the over/under up by a point.

Strength power rating:   #74 Ohio  36,  #118 Nevada  24      
Adjusted for turnovers: Ohio  38-26
Median game rating: Ohio  35-29
Road play rating:  Ohio  37-24

It's rather surprising to see that 7-5 Nevada is only #118 out of 130 FBS teams in our Strength power rating, making it look like an easy game for 6-6 Ohio. The Wolf Pack get a big boost in the median ratings, so it's likely there are some downside outliers on their game chart. The spread is a lot tighter than our power rating, which often happens when one team's bad performances were early in the season. So just from this we can guess Nevada has some real blight on its record early on. We'll take a look.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7.5 Spread
Nevada	33%	47%
Ohio	67%	53%

Normally a 12-point favorite would win about 80% of the game comparisons, so there is definitely an odd distribution of game scores going on, probably more with Nevada. The average spread we get is 12 points, but a 7.5 point spread almost tips 50/50. Nevada has a whale or two dragging it down; as bad as a game rating is, it only counts once here (really, it gets counted 12 times, once for each of the other team's games).

When Nevada has the ball

Nevada scoring offense: #111	Ohio scoring defense: #92
Nevada total offense: #116	Ohio total defense: #104
Nevada rushing offense: #118	Ohio rushing defense: #104
Nevada passing offense: #81	Ohio passing defense: #105

Nevada's offense is pretty dismal, but they can throw the ball a bit. Meanwhile Ohio's defense is...not quite Ohio State's defense, to say the least. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong threw for 1,933 yards and 10 TDs (7 int) despite missing most of October.

When Ohio has the ball

Ohio scoring offense: #49	Nevada scoring defense: #113
Ohio total offense: #52	Nevada total defense: #98
Ohio rushing offense: #41	Nevada rushing defense: #90
Ohio passing offense: #65	Nevada passing defense: #103

Ohio has middling offense, and in this game that might be all that's needed. QB Nathan Rourke has 2,676 passing yards and another 780 on the ground, making him the team's #2 rusher and part of a Bobcat ground game that ranks 25th in raw yardage. The biggest help to Ohio's offensive effort might have been the brawl that erupted after the Nevada-UNLV game. As a result, four Wolf Pack defensive starters are suspended. Gone are #4 tackler DB Austin Arnold, #6 tackler and interceptions leader DB Daniel Brown, and #11 tackler DT Hausia Sekona. #3 tackler LB Gabriel Sewell will miss the first half. Already weak against the pass, they will be even more so come bowl time.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Nevada #86    Ohio #56

 

Nevada's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. Purdue 34-31
   
2. @#6 Oregon 6-77
   
3. Weber St 19-13
   
4. @UTEP 37-21
   
5. Hawai`i 3-54
   
6. San José St 41-38
   
7. @Utah St 10-36
   
8. @Wyoming 3-31
   
9. New Mexico 21-10
   
10. @San Diego St 17-13
    
11. @Fresno St 35-28
    
12. UNLV 30-33 OT

Nevada is a case study in mean vs. median, as they played two of the worst games in FBS football this year, and when the median filters those out, they look like a reasonable team. In fact, all 5 of their losses are pretty dismal; of their 12 efforts, their median games are two moderately weak wins.

Unbelievably, they kicked off the season with a huge win, beating Purdue 34-31. They then lost to Oregon 77-6, and that wasn't even their worst moment. At 3-1 they hosted Hawaii and got beat down 54-3. We've seen a lot of off-the-charts performances but this is the first one that is underwater. You can't even tell by the chart that it's a loss, but unless they were playing a high school team a win would have a blue bar there. It's a red bar, and it doesn't even show up. Perhaps the most amazing thing is that the game was a home game; Hawaii is supposed to have a big road disadvantage, and maybe do this kind of thing when hosting a lu'au-distracted opponent.

The Wolf Pack soldiered on, playing inexplicably well in their wins and terribly in their losses, even getting 3 in a row late in the year (and beating 9-3 SDSU!). Despite the magnitude of their most atrocious performances, they only lost to one losing team—UNLV. No wonder it started a brawl.

 

Ohio's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)

1. Rhode Island 41-20
   
2. @Pittsburgh 10-20
   
3. @Marshall 31-33
   
4. Louisiana-Lafayette 25-45
   
5. @Buffalo 21-20 2OT
   
6. Northern Illinois 36-39
   
7. Kent St 45-38
   
8. @Ball St 34-21
   
9. Miami OH 21-24
   
10. Western Michigan 34-37 OT
    
11. @Bowling Green 66-24
    
12. @Akron 52-3

Ohio started off 1-3, with road losses to two bowl teams and a home loss to 10-3 ULL. In their next three games they beat their only two bowl-bound opponents, Buffalo and Kent State, by a point in overtime and by a touchdown, and also had their only loss to a non-bowl opponent, NIU. The Ball State road win was a step up in performance, and after two steps back in narrow home losses—and needing two wins for bowl eligibility—the Bobcats finally hit their stride on the road, scoring 66 on Bowling Green and 52 on Akron. Not the greatest opponents, to be sure, but everything came together like it hadn't before.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Nevada's season: +0 wins; Ohio's season: -2 wins
• Nevada's momentum: -1 win; Ohio's momentum: +2 wins
• Nevada glad to be here? yes; Ohio glad to be here: yes
• Nevada time zones from home: 1; Ohio time zones from home: 2;
• Nevada coaching situation: unchanged; Ohio coaching situation: unchanged

Nevada finished the same 7-5 as last year, while Ohio was 8-4 in the regular season in 2018. Any disappointment in finishing worse is offset by winning their last two just to get here. And for Nevada, how they finished is important, too—the brawl at the end of the UNLV loss put a stain on the program. The real-world effects—in terms of the suspensions—are probably bigger than any psychological effects. Sometimes teams in this situation even play better after adopting a juvenile "the world is against us" attitude. Hey, whatever works. Ohio is probably glad to make a bowl after starting 2-4, while Nevada should be glad they're allowed to play at all. They could have taken Toledo instead and made two Ohio teams meet in Idaho, but no...

Final analysis

We should help Nevada out a little bit; their loss to Hawaii hurts their average so much that it probably doesn't represent the team's current state. They didn't play a game even close to that level for the rest of the season. It was also part of a 4-game stretch where their starting quarterback was out. So let's cut out those 4 games, which actually includes two decent wins, but whatever. Their rating jumps 5 points. Now what to do about the Oregon game. Another outlier, and Ohio is no Oregon. Ok, we'll remove the early games, too. That gets rid of the Purdue win as well, but, baby/bathwater whatever. Now they're a full 7 points better. Hey, why don't we just take their 2 best games, the ones right before the UNLV loss? Then Nevada is playing 21 points better than their average!

But don't expect the Wolf Pack to be nearly at their best after losing all those defensive starters. You know who might be at their best? Ohio. In their last two games the team put on an offensive show as everything clicked. Given Nevada's compromised situation, it's not unreasonable to think Ohio's offensive renaissance—which was already happening in front of our eyes—could continue. That would lead to a very solid Ohio win.

Prediction:  Ohio  45,  Nevada  24

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Gator Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Indiana vs. Tennessee

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, FL
Time: Thursday, January 2 at 7:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Indiana Hoosiers (8-4) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (7-5)

It's been a few years since either of these teams has been bowling, so they should both be ready to go.

Vegas line/spread: Tennessee by 2 1/2 (over/under 55)

The spread hasn't changed much by game day (up 1/2 point) but the over/under is up by 4 points from 51 to 55.

Strength power rating:   #35 Indiana  25,   #52 Tennessee  22    
Adjusted for turnovers: Indiana  25-22
Median game rating: Tennessee  25-22
Road play rating:  Indiana  25-23

What's interesting here is the Median game rating score estimate. Indiana is about a 3-point favorite by our Strength power rating, but the Median rating flips the script. Indiana has 4 or so outlier games that the median culls out, while Tennessee has 4 early low-rated games that get removed. Is the median relevant in this case? Let's find out.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -2 Spread
Indiana	56%	49%
Tennessee	44%	51%

Our Strength power rating is right on the cusp of a 2 point spread. Even though the average margin is about 3.5 points, the performance distribution (described above when discussing the median) puts a lot of these cross-comparisons close, and Tennessee wins a tiny majority when spotted 2 points.

When Indiana has the ball

Indiana scoring offense: #32	Tennessee scoring defense: #26
Indiana total offense: #23	Tennessee total defense: #25
Indiana rushing offense: #74	Tennessee rushing defense: #21
Indiana passing offense: #15	Tennessee passing defense: #29

A good matchup in terms of scoring and yardage, Indiana has an edge when throwing the ball but as usual won't be running as much. Indiana used two quarterbacks, both of whom can run, until Michael Penix Jr (1,394 yards, 10 TD, 4 int) was lost for the season in early November. Peyton Ramsey (2,227 yards, 13:4) took over full time. The Hoosiers still have 4 receivers over 500 yards, so there has been continuity even if the offense is more predictable now, making Tennessee's job a little easier on defense.

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee scoring offense: #89	Indiana scoring defense: #42
Tennessee total offense: #57	Indiana total defense: #46
Tennessee rushing offense: #77	Indiana rushing defense: #52
Tennessee passing offense: #50	Indiana passing defense: #63

QB Jarrett Guarantaro's breakthrough never really happened; he has just 1,937 yards, 16 TDs, and 6 interceptions, the same work-in-progress numbers he's had his whole career at Tennessee. Benched occasionally for freshman Brian Maurer who completed less than 50% with a 2:5 ratio, he remains the Vols only option. The receiver corps, like at Indiana, is solid enough to make the passing game respectable, and it may be the better option against Indiana's defense.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Indiana #63    Tennessee #50

 

Indiana's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (0)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

1. =Ball St 34-24
   
2. Eastern Illinois 52-0
   
3. #2 Ohio State 10-51
   
4. Connecticut 38-3
   
5. @Michigan St 31-40
   
6. Rutgers 35-0
   
7. @Maryland 34-28
   
8. @Nebraska 38-31
   
9. Northwestern 34-3
   
10. @#10 Penn State 27-34
    
11. #15 Michigan 14-39
    
12. @Purdue 44-41 2OT

Indiana has a peculiar season. They didn't beat a single bowl-eligible team, but they lost almost exclusively to top 25 teams. They only played one bowl-bound team that didn't end up in the top 25—Michigan State—and the Spartans beat them, 40-31. They were pretty even-keel in terms of performance, raising it a bit for the Rutgers shutout, the win at Nebraska, and the 34-3 drubbing of Northwestern. The one-touchdown loss at Penn State was another high-water mark. They dipped a bit—for the first time—in losing to Michigan 39-14, but were back on their steady track for the overtime Purdue road win.

 

Tennessee's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

1. Georgia St 30-38
   
2. Brigham Young 26-29 2OT
   
3. Chattanooga 45-0
   
4. @#9 Florida 3-34
   
5. #5 Georgia 14-43
   
6. Mississippi St 20-10
   
7. @#13 Alabama 13-35
   
8. South Carolina 41-21
   
9. UAB 30-7
   
10. @Kentucky 17-13
    
11. @Missouri 24-20
    
12. Vanderbilt 28-10

Tennessee began the season with high expectations to bounce back from their 5-7 campaign of last year. ESPN's FPI ranked them #15 in the pre-season! And if we still did pre-season rankings, I'm sure the Volunteers would have made a big jump. But some of that must have gone to their heads as they came out clearly overconfident against Georgia State and lost at home 38-30. The loss carried over to their 2nd home loss of the year, in overtime to BYU. They took out their frustrations on Chattanooga but then faced two top ten teams and played poorly each time. At 1-4, a bowl game looked unlikely, let alone a great turnaround season.

But the win over Mississippi State was a turning point. It wasn't much—a 20-10 win over a bowl-bound team—but the Volunteers played well from then on. Not great, but well. Alabama still beat them, but only 35-13. If fans didn't see any cause for hope yet they did after big wins over South Carolina and UAB, and tight wins over Kentucky and Missouri, both on the road. Now bowl-eligible, they beat Vandy for good measure. They might not have turned the program around, but at least they turned around the season.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Indiana's season: +3 wins; Tennessee's season: +2 wins
• Indiana's momentum: +0 wins; Tennessee's momentum: +3 wins
• Indiana glad to be here? YES; Tennessee glad to be here: yes
• Indiana time zones from home: 0; Tennessee time zones from home: 0;
• Indiana coaching situation: OC hired away; Tennessee coaching situation: unchanged

Tennessee is going bowling for the first time in 3 years, which is a monstrous gap for the program. Indiana's first trip in four years is about par for the course for Hoosier football. Both teams are coming off 5-7 seasons, and while Tennessee had much higher hopes in August, Indiana had the higher hopes at the mid-season point. Tennessee turned their season around and the Gator Bowl is a lot better than no bowl; it's not what Tennessee was hoping for pre-season, but they might have prayed for it when they were 1-4. And to be realistic about the state of the program, it's been 15 years since they've been to a bowl that was a lot better than the Gator Bowl.

Final analysis

The teams are pretty evenly matched, though from a full-season perspective Indiana has the edge. Their offense is clearly better and the defense is close to the Vols level. But two things have happened over the course of the season that might make those averages less reliable.

One, Indiana lost one of their quarterbacks. This is probably a pretty minor effect; it has made their offense more variable in performance, as seen in the Penn State game and the Michigan game that followed it.

Two, Tennessee's offense has slowly but surely improved, just a small amount each game, until it typical rated a lot better in late games than early games. It's not great; Guarantero can still go 6 of 17 against Vanderbilt, two games after going 6 of 7 with 2 TDs against Kentucky. But overall the offense is a lot better, and at the same time the defense became consistently decent in the 2nd half of the season. Taken together, Tennessee's last four wins are more representative of the team at this point.

Meanwhile Indiana is probably more erratic than they've been all season. Early on they played at a stable level, raised their game for a bit, but came back down to earth when Penix Jr was lost for the year. It's in cases like these that the Median game scores represent a team's state well—by culling out early performances that are outdated, or showing how a team plays typically. If Guarantaro has a bad game, or Indiana's offense sparks, it could go the other way easily. But most of the time, we see the team's current states being at about this level: Tennessee by 3 points. With the defenses still better than the offenses it shouldn't be a shootout, but a hard-fought defensive battle from two teams glad to be back at a bowl game.

Prediction:  Tennessee 25, Indiana 22

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Birmingham Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #21 Cincinnati vs. Boston College

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL
Time: Thursday, January 2 at 3:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#21 Cincinnati Bearcats (10-3) vs. Boston College Eagles (6-6)

Most teams want to be chosen for a bowl game, but that's not enough for Boston College. They actually want the game to played start to finish, too.

Vegas line/spread: Cincinnati by 7 1/2 (over/under 55)

Not much movement in the line by game day; the spread is up 1/2 point, the over steady.

Strength power rating:   #31 Cincinnati  34,   #71 Boston College  23    
Adjusted for turnovers: Cincinnati  32-21
Median game rating: Cincinnati  34-25
Road play rating:  Cincinnati  33-24

Cincinnati ranks #31 in Strength while Boston College is just #71, so our power rating favors the Bearcats by over 10 points, with a big of tightening depending on how you look at the teams. In any case it remains consistently above the Vegas spread of 7 points.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Cincinnati	76%	57%
Boston College	24%	43%

Cincy wins 3/4 of the time straight up, and a decent-sized majority of the time against the spread.

When Cincinnati has the ball

Cincinnati scoring offense: #57	Boston College scoring defense: #95
Cincinnati total offense: #79	Boston College total defense: #117
Cincinnati rushing offense: #23	Boston College rushing defense: #80
Cincinnati passing offense: #106	Boston College passing defense: #113

Cincinnati's offensive isn't quite explosive, but it won't have to be against Boston College, who gives up yards and points by the bunches. The Bearcats do have a strong ground attack, ranking in the top 25 even after adjustment for opposition. Michael Warren II has 1,160 rushing yards and 14 TDs, and QB Desmond Riddler is a better running than he is a passer, adding 545 net yards on the ground.

When Boston College has the ball

Boston College scoring offense: #45	Cincinnati scoring defense: #21
Boston College total offense: #26	Cincinnati total defense: #42
Boston College rushing offense: #9	Cincinnati rushing defense: #23
Boston College passing offense: #95	Cincinnati passing defense: #28

Boston College has a rushing offense that exceeds Cincinnati's which is good for making this game competitive because the Bearcats have a pretty solid defense. The Eagles have boasted a 1-2 RB combo of AJ Dillon (1,685 yards) and David Bailey (816), but Dillon won't be playing as he preparing for the NFL draft. Making matters worse the passing game was hurt when Anthony Brown was lost for the season in early October. Dennis Grosel's 9:3 TD:int ratio is pretty much the same as Brown's 9:2, but he completes fewer than 50% of his attempts. Cincinnati's defense can deal with either option, but they can probably focus on the run in Birmingham.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Cincinnati #16    Boston College #107

Cincinnati has the definite edge in special teams; their placekicking is particularly good while B.C.'s is not.

 

Cincinnati's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. UCLA 24-14
   
2. @#2 Ohio State 0-42
   
3. Miami OH 35-13
   
4. @Marshall 52-14
   
5. Central Florida 27-24
   
6. @Houston 38-23
   
7. Tulsa 24-13
   
8. @East Carolina 46-43
   
9. Connecticut 48- 3
   
10. @South Florida 20-17
    
11. Temple 15-13
    
12. @#17 Memphis 24-34
    
13. @#17 Memphis 24-29

Cincinnati opened at home with a win over UCLA, 24-14. Their next outing, a 42-0 loss at Ohio State, rates as roughly the same level of performance. The Bearcats improved from there with wins over bowl teams' Miami Ohio, Marshall, and even UCF, then slumped a bit against the lesser foes in the 2nd half of the season; they beat East Carolina and USF by 3 points each, Temple by 2. Given two shots at Memphis on the road, once for the American Conference title, Cincy fell short both times in nearly identical games, though they led in the 4th quarter the second time around. Cincinnati's defensive performance chart looks like a straight line across the weeks at a pretty high level, except for a single drop to near zero on game 8 (East Carolina).

Boston College's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)

1. Virginia Tech 35-28
   
2. Richmond 45-13
   
3. Kansas 24-48
   
4. @Rutgers 30-16
   
5. Wake Forest 24-27
   
6. @Louisville 39-41
   
7. North Carolina St 45-24
   
8. @#3 Clemson 7-59
   
9. @Syracuse 58-27
   
10. Florida St 31-38
    
11. @#16 Notre Dame 7-40
    
12. @Pittsburgh 26-19

Boston College's season went whichever way their offense played, because the defense was reliably bad, time in and time out. A chart of the Eagles' offensive season looks almost identical to the chart above. They opened with a solid win over Virginia Tech and topped Richmond impressively, but the offense faltered (and defense hit rock bottom) in the home loss to Kansas. They "rebounded" with a lame win over 2-10 Rutgers, then played it close but lost to Wake Forest and Louisville. Losses to Clemson, FSU, and Notre Dame were all poor efforts, but the offense exploded against NC State and Syracuse. They did just enough to beat Pitt and reach bowl eligibility, but not quite enough to save head coach Steve Adazzio's job.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Cincinnati's season: +1 win; Boston College's season: -1 win
• Cincinnati's momentum: -1 win; Boston College's momentum: +0 wins
• Cincinnati glad to be here? maybe; Boston College glad to be here: maybe
• Cincinnati time zones from home: 1; Boston College time zones from home: 1;
• Cincinnati coaching situation: unchanged; Boston College coaching situation: coach fired

Both teams had a near-replica of last year; Cincy added a win, Boston College lost one, and both teams were chosen for a bowl game. Last year Cincinnati won the Military Bowl, while Boston College went to the First Responder Bowl against Boise State and played less than a quarter before the game was called for bad weather. Leading 7-0, the game was declared a No Contest, much like boxers who had an inadvertent clash of heads.

We're not sure what that situation does for Boston College's motivation in this bowl game, but it probably doesn't outweigh their coach being fired. That has to put a damper on getting a bowl bid. According to some former players, the current players might be pleased at the development, but it's a distraction.

Final analysis

As goes Boston College's offense, so goes Boston College. Their defense is reliably below average, and occasionally awful, so Cincinnati shouldn't worry about scoring points. The Bearcats need to get their defense going and they'll be fine. It helps that they can focus on stopping the run, as the BC passing game is meager these days. And with their star running back skipping the bowl game for NFL draft prep, the odds of BC's offense having a good game look pretty poor.

Cincinnati's defense was amazingly consistent, and at a pretty high level. There was almost no variation week to week in their defensive performance except for one huge failure against East Carolina. 12 solid performances and one flub. Avoid a reoccurrence of that and the Bearcats win this game.

In fact, the defenses are so stable we're going to pick the game based only on them. Cincy's defense is 13 or 14 points better than BC's, so that's our spread. If Cincy's defense plays like it did in the 46-43 East Carolina win, Boston College will score 50 points. If BC's defense plays like it did in the Kansas game, Cincy will score 50 points. It will be a close, 50+ point shootout if both happen, but that's a 1 in 156 chance as we see it.

Prediction:  Cincinnati  35,  Boston College  21

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Sugar Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #5 Georgia vs. #7 Baylor

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA
Time: Wednesday, January 1 at 8:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#5 Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) vs. #7 Baylor Bears (11-2)

It might be a very defensive battle when the Bulldogs face the Bears.

Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 4 1/2 (over/under 41.5)

Movement: The line opened near 7, and has since dropped to 4 1/2 due to mounting injuries and absences on the Georgia side. The o/u has remained stable.

Strength power rating:   #12 Georgia 21,  #14 Baylor 17    
Adjusted for turnovers: Georgia  22-13
Median game rating: Georgia  24-18
Road play rating:  Georgia  21-17

Georgia was initially favored by a touchdown, a lot less than they were against Texas last year when they were upset. The Strength power rating calls for a closer game, around 4 1/2 points (which the Vegas line now matches). Baylor is more heavily dependent on turnovers, so extracting their effect shows a bigger win for Georgia (unless Baylor does get its turnovers, of course).

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Georgia	59%	47%
Baylor	41%	53%

Georgia wins 3 of 5 game comparisons, but Baylor covers the majority against a 7-point spread.

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia scoring offense: #30	Baylor scoring defense: #11
Georgia total offense: #33	Baylor total defense: #23
Georgia rushing offense: #45	Baylor rushing defense: #6
Georgia passing offense: #51	Baylor passing defense: #4

Georgia has a solid offense with above-average run and pass options, but Baylor's defense is stingy with points and ranks in the top ten in stopping teams on the ground and through the air. The Bears give up quite a bit of raw yardage, but against teams with powerful offenses; they hold those team to far below their average, hence their top ten ranking. Georgia QB Jake Fromm's 2019 looks a lot like his first two seasons, a productive year without too much flashiness. He's thrown for 2,610 yards, with 22 TDs and just 5 interceptions. The Bulldogs have a proud history of 1,000 yard rushers and the latest is D'Andre Swift (1,216) but he may miss the game with injury. In any case Bulldogs will have to work hard to move the ball against the Bears, and it will be even more difficult without the offensive line: All-American tackle Andrew Thomas and starter Isaiah Wilson are prepping for the pros, and starter Ben Cleveland is out due to academics. When the O-line was intact they gave Fromm lots of time, and he was sacked just 12 times. Baylor's D has 42 sacks on the year, making three lost starters a big concern. The Bulldogs are also missing their #2 and #4 receivers.

When Baylor has the ball

Baylor scoring offense: #28	Georgia scoring defense: #4
Baylor total offense: #28	Georgia total defense: #3
Baylor rushing offense: #42	Georgia rushing defense: #1
Baylor passing offense: #43	Georgia passing defense: #6

Baylor's Briles-era all-offense, no-defense look has been replaced by a much more balanced philosophy, but the Bears can still put up the points, ranking near the top 25 in both scoring and yardage. Like Georgia, their offense is balanced, too, with solid passing and running attacks. QB Charlie Brewer has 2,950 passing yards and a 20:6 TD:int ratio. Georgia's defense is every bit as strong as Baylor's and then some. They rank #1 against the run, top 5 in yardage and scoring, and #6 in per-attempt passing yards. It will be even harder for Baylor to score on Georgia than vice versa.

We'll include the sacks comparison here too just for completeness: Brewer has been sacked 29 times, and Georgia has 28 sacks on the year, which makes the pass pressure situation roughly equal between Baylor and Georgia's offenses. 

Georgia will be missing starting DB JR Reed and defensive line starter Tyler Clark.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Georgia #48    Baylor #100

With two decent offenses against two great defenses, the game might come down to special teams. The Bulldogs have the edge, but both teams have good kickers; Baylor's John Mayers has made 16 of 19 while Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship is 25 of 31, including 5 of 8 at 40-49 and 3 of 5 at 50+.

 

Georgia's season (11-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (2) to losing teams (1)

1. @Vanderbilt 30-6
   
2. Murray St 63-17
   
3. Arkansas St 55-0
   
4. #15 Notre Dame 23-17
   
5. @Tennessee 43-14
   
6. South Carolina 17-20 2OT
   
7. Kentucky 21-0
   
8. =#9 Florida 24-17
   
9. Missouri 27-0
   
10. @#12 Auburn 21-14
    
11. Texas A&M 19-13
    
12. @Georgia Tech 52-7
    
13. #1 LSU 10-37

Georgia played great football almost every time out. But they hit two duds—an overtime loss to 4-8 South Carolina, and a thrashing by 13-0 LSU. Before those games and in-between them they could do no wrong, beating six bowl teams and three that finished in the top 15. A defense-based team, the Bulldogs rarely post a lot of points; they beat #15 Notre Dame by 6, #9 Florida by 7, and #12 Auburn by 7, scoring just enough to get the job done. Same with wins over Kentucky (27 points), Missouri (27), and Texas A&M (19). But 17 in regulation against South Carolina wasn't enough, nor was 10 even close against LSU.

The defense always did its job, holding almost every team below its average (even LSU). The Bulldog D only had one bad game—Murray State, and they clearly didn't need a shutout there and the scrubs were put in early. So don't look for a letdown on defense from Georgia, because they haven't had one yet.

 

Baylor's season (11-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. S.F. Austin 56-17
   
2. UTSA 63-14
   
3. @Rice 21-13
   
4. Iowa St 23-21
   
5. @Kansas St 31-12
   
6. Texas Tech 33-30 2OT
   
7. @#25 Oklahoma St 45-27
   
8. West Virginia 17-14
   
9. @TCU 29-23 3OT
   
10. #4 Oklahoma 31-34
    
11. Texas 24-10
    
12. @Kansas 61-6
    
13. #4 Oklahoma 23-30 OT

Baylor looked like the Bears of old in their first two blowout wins—all offense and marginal defense. The offense seemed to falter against Rice, but then a funny thing happened: the defense started winning games for them. The 23-21 Iowa State win, certainly, and holding Kansas State to 12 didn't hurt. Through four more wins the defense held firm, if not for overtime points in 5 overtime periods. Even the first Oklahoma game showed their defense in a good light—for the first half. The last three games were defensive clinics, holding Texas to 10, Kansas to 6, and Oklahoma to 20 in regulation. The offense showed up from game to game but the defense just kept getting better.

In the end Baylor was a few field goals away from being 13-0...and a few away from having 2 more losses, given the close, close calls vs. Texas Tech and TCU.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Georgia's season: +0 wins; Baylor's season: +6 wins
• Georgia's momentum: +0 wins; Baylor's momentum: -2 wins
• Georgia glad to be here? yes; Baylor glad to be here: YES
• Georgia time zones from home: 1; Baylor time zones from home: 0;
• Georgia coaching situation: unchanged; Baylor coaching situation: unchanged

Baylor gets a big YES to the question, is the team glad to be here? After a 6-6 regular 2018 season they went 11-2. Georgia gets a small 'yes' because they had the same result as last year, where they advanced to the SEC title game and lost, and got sent to the Sugar Bowl. 

Final analysis

It's true these teams have great defenses, but it's not just the quality but the consistency of both defenses that's amazing. Georgia's D never had a bad game—holding LSU to 37 is about 10 points better than average. And Baylor's defense got better every game, peaking in their last three contests. The teams' offenses are probably in for a long, tough day. Even Georgia's red zone defense is great, while Baylor's is above-average.

Last year Georgia lost in the SEC title game to Alabama 35-28 after leading in the 4th quarter; this time they lost big to LSU from the start, which is either a lot worse or a bit better, depending on how you look at it. Still, we have to note their performance last year in the Sugar Bowl, losing to Texas 28-21 as a 12 point favorite. And Baylor may be as hyped about their turnaround season as Texas was last year. Will we see another 19-point swing around the Vegas spread?

If it hadn't happened last year, it might happen this year. But the Bulldogs have vivid memories of their big upset loss to Texas. They aren't favored by nearly as much this time around, and their opponent has a better record and higher ranking than Texas did last year. They won't underestimate Baylor, and know firsthand what can happen if they don't stay focused.

Baylor went from 1-11 to 6-6 to 11-1 in regular season games, and now they're on the big stage. Getting to a big-time New Year's Day bowl is a huge accomplishment for a team that was almost winless two seasons ago. Almost enough for them to be a little satisfied already, without needing a win to be proud of themselves...

In any case, if there's a game to pick to be low-scoring, this is it. Both defenses will rise to the occasion, and we don't know if the offenses for either team will show up or not—they're both very erratic and unreliable on offense, and in Georgia's case the offensive line literally won't show up with 3 starters out. But both teams have very good placekickers, so we're calling for field goals. Lots of field goals, and nothing more.

Prediction:  Georgia 12,  Baylor 9

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Rose Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #6 Oregon vs. #8 Wisconsin

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA
Time: Wednesday, January 1 at 5:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#6 Oregon Ducks (11-2) vs. #8 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3)

The Rose Bowl. A good one, and a rematch of a very good one from 8 years ago.

Vegas line/spread: Wisconsin by 3 (over/under 51.5)

Moves: The lines have remained remarkably steady for the past few weeks.

Strength power rating:   #5 Wisconsin  26,  #6 Oregon  23      
Adjusted for turnovers: Wisconsin  25-19
Median game rating: Wisconsin  28-19
Road play rating:  Oregon  23-22

For once, the Strength power rating and Vegas agree on a spread: Wisconsin by 3. Our 49 point total is slighty below their 51.5 over/under.

The adjustment for turnovers, and median game play both increase the Badgers' spread; the former is because Oregon is heavily dependent on turnover margin, the latter because Wisconsin had a few outlier games on the downside (e.g. Illinois) that drag down the mean average but don't affect the median. Same reason Wisconsin's road play looks bad, but we'll see if that's a real thing or a small sample.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Oregon	46%	51%
Wisconsin	54%	49%

Even straight up this is almost a 50/50 game, with Wisconsin winning a slim majority of game-comparisons. And though we pick the Badgers by 3, it's closer to 2 1/2 before rounding, so Oregon wins most trials against the spread, by a hair.

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon scoring offense: #11	Wisconsin scoring defense: #5
Oregon total offense: #29	Wisconsin total defense: #5
Oregon rushing offense: #40	Wisconsin rushing defense: #45
Oregon passing offense: #39	Wisconsin passing defense: #7

Here's a great Rose bowl matchup: Oregon's near-top ten offense vs. Wisconsin's top 5 defense. Oregon's yardage numbers don't look as impressive as their scoring clip, but the Ducks don't turn the ball over and that makes a big difference. QB Justin Herbert has a 32:5 TD:int ratio and 3,333 yards on the season, while RB CJ Verdell has 1,171 yards. Wisconsin's defense is much more solid against the pass, largely because of their pass rush which has garnered a crazy 49 sacks—12.5 and 11.5 for LBs Zack Baun and Chris Orr respectively.

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin scoring offense: #10	Oregon scoring defense: #10
Wisconsin total offense: #12	Oregon total defense: #27
Wisconsin rushing offense: #3	Oregon rushing defense: #35
Wisconsin passing offense: #62	Oregon passing defense: #10

Now there's a perfect match: Wisconsin's #10 scoring offense vs. Oregon's #10 scoring defense. Again, Oregon's yardage numbers look inferior but their penchant for interceptions—19 this year—helps kill drives before they turn into points. Wisconsin QB Jack Coan has only thrown 4 interceptions vs. 17 TDs and 2,541 yards. But passing is never Wisconsin's thing (unless they have Russell Wilson). The Badgers rank their typical #3 in adjusted rushing yards per game behind Jonathan Taylor's 1,909 yards and 21 TDs.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Oregon #42    Wisconsin #76

 

Oregon's season (11-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. =#12 Auburn 21-27
   
2. Nevada 77-6
   
3. Montana 35-3
   
4. @Stanford 21-6
   
5. California 17-7
   
6. Colorado 45-3
   
7. @Washington 35-31
   
8. Washington St 37-35
   
9. @#22 Southern Cal 56-24
   
10. Arizona 34-6
    
11. @Arizona St 28-31
    
12. Oregon St 24-10
    
13. =#11 Utah 37-15

From this chart we can see why Oregon's median game play is so much lower than the mean: four outlier games on the upside increase the mean a lot but disappear when finding the median. The 77-6 win over 7-5 Nevada was off the charts in retrospect, while the 45-3 Colorado win, the 56-24 win over #22 USC, and the Pac-12 title game win over #11 Utah was clearly a great game at 37-15. Otherwise Oregon played from decent to very good. The opening loss to Auburn complicated their Playoff aspirations but didn't hurt their Pac-12 title chances. The upset loss to Arizona State wiped out their Playoff odds for good but by that time the Ducks were so far ahead in the Pac-12 North that they had clinched the division championship. They met a Utah team that was on a roll and obliterated them.

Oregon's defensive prowess can be seen in the early stretch of games where they allowed 6, 3, 6, 7, and 3 points. Most of those teams didn't go bowling, but holding any team to single digits take focus, and Oregon teams are not always known for great defense. This year, when their erratic offense faltered the defense was there to pick up the slack, for example the Stanford, Cal, and Oregon State games.

 

Wisconsin's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. @South Florida 49-0
   
2. Central Michigan 61-0
   
3. #15 Michigan 35-14
   
4. Northwestern 24-15
   
5. Kent St 48-0
   
6. Michigan St 38-0
   
7. @Illinois 23-24
   
8. @#2 Ohio State 7-38
   
9. #16 Iowa 24-22
   
10. @Nebraska 37-21
    
11. Purdue 45-24
    
12. @#18 Minnesota 38-17
    
13. =#2 Ohio State 21-34

Wisconsin looked like the best team in the nation after three games; after six, they'd played just one "average" game and 5 incredible one, and their defensive score was off the charts. But that tepid Northwestern win was the sign of things to come, as the whole team went flat, offense and defense; they played the same at Illinois and got upset, 24-23. That loss killed their momentum and instead of being the game of the year, the Ohio State blowout loss felt like a foregone conclusion. The team built back up slowly from their nadir, edging #16 Iowa and drubbing #18 Minnesota. Naturally the rematch with Ohio State was going to be a closer game—did anyone expect the Buckeyes to beat Wisconsin by 31 again? The Badgers led by 14 at the half until Ohio State took over, winning the 2nd half 27-0.

Like Oregon, Wisconsin's defense played some truly amazing games, recording an extremely rare FOUR shutouts. No one has done that since Alabama in 2012, and no one has done it against four FBS teams since Virginia Tech in 2001. FYI, the last team to record 5 shutouts was Oklahoma in 1986.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Oregon's season: +3 wins; Wisconsin's season: +3 wins
• Oregon's momentum: +0 wins; Wisconsin's momentum: -2 wins
• Oregon glad to be here? YES; Wisconsin glad to be here: YES
• Oregon time zones from home: 0; Wisconsin time zones from home: 2;
• Oregon coaching situation: unchanged; Wisconsin coaching situation: unchanged

Neither team has been to the Rose Bowl in a while: Oregon since 2014 (part of the Playoff that year) and Wisconsin since 2012. Both teams added several wins over last year. They had different season trajectories—Oregon lost early, Wisconsin not until mid-season—but both suffered an upset loss that essentially wiped out their Playoff dreams. Oregon ended on a high note, and one of their best games, while Wisconsin ended on a loss where they played will for one half but got smoked in the 2nd half.

Final analysis

This is a tough one to decide. Both teams had their moments and looked like Playoff teams in about half their games, but looked average or fell flat in other contests.

You might see both teams running the ball a lot this game. Wisconsin, because that's what they do, and Oregon because they can do either but might want to avoid dealing with Wisconsin's crazy pass rush which has 49 sacks. The Badgers don't want to put the ball in the air too much because Oregon has 19 interceptions on the year.

Oregon lives off turnovers—particularly interceptions. Wisconsin doesn't throw many because they mostly run the ball. Without those turnovers Oregon is about 4 points less effective overall.

Both teams had a series of outlier games that may not represent the typical game. While they both should be up for the Rose Bowl, it's not likely either one blows out the other, so we can probably remove these outliers and see what more typical results are left. For Wisconsin, the whole first half of their season looks like an outlier, as they never quite got back to that level of play on defense. And we'll assume Oregon will play a more typical game than they did against Nevada, Colorado, USC, or Utah. The verdict? Wisconsin by 4.

Alternative analysis: Oregon's best win over a top 25 team (Utah) was slightly more impressive than Wisconsin's win over Michigan. We could compare the team's final games and Oregon would look two touchdowns better than Wisconsin, but it's unfair to use Ohio State as a yardstick. Michigan and Utah are more similar. That points to a 4-point Oregon win.

Now we have a margin (4 points) but not a winner. Given that it should be a close game, 2nd half play will be important, and many times this year Wisconsin has not played well in the 2nd half. It's not just the 27-0 deficit to Ohio State, but they lost the 2nd half to most of the ranked teams they played: Michigan 7-14; Ohio State 7-28 and 0-27; Iowa 10-16. They beat Minnesota in the 2nd half 28-10, but in their loss to Illinois they lost it 10-17. Oregon's 2nd half doesn't exhibit this problem.

So our projected trajectory for the game is: Wisconsin and Oregon play a tough first half to a draw or small Wisconsin lead, maybe a field goal. Oregon wins the 2nd half by 4 to 7 points to win by 4.

Prediction:  Oregon  35,  Wisconsin  31

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Outback Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #12 Auburn vs. #18 Minnesota

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL
Time: Wednesday, January 1 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#12 Auburn Tigers (9-3) vs. #18 Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-2)

Auburn is known only for being a spoiler. Minnesota didn't get any respect for their great season. Which team has more to prove?

Vegas line/spread: Auburn by 7 (over/under 53.5)

Moves: The line has remained steady for a few weeks, with the over/under up a point.

Strength power rating:   #9 Auburn  32,   #19 Minnesota  22    
Adjusted for turnovers: Auburn  30-21
Median game rating: Auburn  33-23
Road play rating:  Auburn  33-20

Auburn is more of a favorite with our Strength power rating than Vegas, and some of that has to do with Minnesota's slow start to the season being discounted by the oddsmakers while our power rating averages it in, unweighted. In fact, using our power rating with a +10% weight each week, Auburn ends up just a 7 1/2 point favorite. All the other adjustments (turnovers, median, road games) are at least somewhat affected by the Gophers' poor first three games.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Auburn	71%	56%
Minnesota	29%	44%

The game-comparison system uses all of each team's performances and cross-compares them, yielding 144 (12 x 12 games) results. Auburn wins about 70% of these, and 56% vs. a 7-point spread. As we noted before, Minnesota's first three games were terrible, automatically giving Auburn 36 "wins" here. With those removed—which probably better reflects how the Gophers will play—Auburn's straight up win percentage drops to 61%, and they cover a 7 point spread just 42% of the time.

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn scoring offense: #17	Minnesota scoring defense: #33
Auburn total offense: #21	Minnesota total defense: #28
Auburn rushing offense: #19	Minnesota rushing defense: #42
Auburn passing offense: #69	Minnesota passing defense: #41

The Tigers have a solid offense, top 25 in scoring, total yardage, and rushing yardage per game (all adjusted for competition). Their passing game is a bit weak, with freshman Bo Nix struggling at times for his 2,366 yards and 15:6 TD:int ratio. JaTarvious Whitlow leads on the ground with 739 yards, and three others top 300. That might not sound like a lot, but look at the defenses they face week to week. Minnesota's defense struggled early in the year but improved to near top 25 level, looking decent against both the run and pass. Its standout is DB Antoine Winfield Jr, who leads the team in tackles and has 7 interceptions on the year. Starting LB Kamal Martin will miss the game preparing for the NFL draft. 

When Minnesota has the ball

Minnesota scoring offense: #16	Auburn scoring defense: #9
Minnesota total offense: #22	Auburn total defense: #6
Minnesota rushing offense: #34	Auburn rushing defense: #2
Minnesota passing offense: #33	Auburn passing defense: #5

Minnesota really has a good offense; it ranks solidly in the top 25 by scoring and by total yardage. It's also balanced between rushing and passing which keeps opponents guessing and gives the Gophers options when one or the other isn't working. The problem is that Auburn's defense has the same balance but even more so, ranking in the top 10 across the board, and top 5 against both the run and the pass.

QB Tanner Morgan (2,975 yards, 28 TDs, 6 int) is having a stellar season helming the Gophers. Two huge reasons for his success are Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson, receivers who both have over 1,000 yards on the season and 11 TDs apiece. RB Rodney Smith topped 1,000 yards on the ground. Meanwhile Auburn's defense isn't a big-play defense; they don't have a crazy number of sacks or interceptions. They just stop teams from getting yardage and scoring, and the burden of proof is on Minnesota's offense to show they can do both of those things; their performance against top defenses is mixed.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Auburn #46    Minnesota #126

Auburn's special teams aren't stellar, but they are compared to Minnesota, who ranks 96th in net punting, hasn't made a field goal over 40 yards, and ranks 80th in kickoff return defense. 

 

Auburn's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. =#6 Oregon 27-21
   
2. Tulane 24-6
   
3. Kent St 55-16
   
4. @Texas A&M 28-20
   
5. Mississippi St 56-23
   
6. @#9 Florida 13-24
   
7. @Arkansas 51-10
   
8. @#1 LSU 20-23
   
9. Mississippi 20-14
   
10. #5 Georgia 14-21
    
11. Samford 52-0
    
12. #13 Alabama 48-45

Auburn started out like gangbusters, beating #6 Oregon on a neutral field and beating 4 more bowl-bound teams for a 5-0 start. Over the next 5 games they lost at #9 Florida by 11, at #1 LSU by a field goal, and at home vs. Georgia by a touchdown. Three games later they beat Alabama in yet another classic between the teams. They closed out a season bookended by their biggest wins, and only lost to top ten teams by small amounts. While their freshman-led offense showed quite a bit of variability, the Tigers were a steady team due to their strong defense, which played consistently well all year.

Minnesota's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. South Dakota St 28-21
   
2. @Fresno St 38-35 2OT
   
3. Georgia Southern 35-32
   
4. @Purdue 38-31
   
5. Illinois 40-17
   
6. Nebraska 34-7
   
7. @Rutgers 42-7
   
8. Maryland 52-10
   
9. #10 Penn State 31-26
   
10. @#16 Iowa 19-23
    
11. @Northwestern 38-22
    
12. #8 Wisconsin 17-38

It took a while for the pollsters to warm up to Minnesota, but you can't really blame them. The Gophers were 7-6 last year and the first three games put them at about that level, as they struggled to beat FCS South Dakota State, were taken into double overtime by Fresno State, and beat Georgia Southern by a field goal. At 3-0, no one was paying attention, and the next five wins could be explained away: Purdue was 1-2 when the Gophers beat them by a touchdown; Illinois wasn't yet on the upswing that made them respectable; Nebraska was still having problems, everyone was beating Rutgers, and Maryland was collapsing. 

But by then Minnesota was 8-0 and had won their last four games by a combined 168-41. The schedule looked weak—and it was—but the Gophers were clearly playing a LOT better than early on. Not many expected they'd beat Penn State but they did, and finally they got some attention. Still, the consensus was they'd lose to Iowa and Wisconsin and fail to make the Big Ten title game, and the consensus was correct. Iowa edged the Gophers 23-19 at home, and Wisconsin pulled away for a 38-17 win. The dream ended just when it was really getting started, but it was a fun ride for the team and its fans.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Auburn's season: +2 wins; Minnesota's season: +4 wins
• Auburn's momentum: -1 win; Minnesota's momentum: -2 wins
• Auburn glad to be here? yes; Minnesota glad to be here: yes
• Auburn time zones from home: 1; Minnesota time zones from home: 1;
• Auburn coaching situation: unchanged; Minnesota coaching situation: unchanged

Both teams are glad to be playing in a solid New Year's Day bowl, even if it's just the Outback. Both had hopes of something better, but those hopes were dashed and it seems both teams have to realize it wasn't meant to be. Auburn's hopes peaked early on, at 5-0 when they had the best résumé of any team in the nation. Over the next few weeks they suffered three losses and revisited their expectations. A big win over Alabama was a fantastic consolation prize. Minnesota had dreams of running the table and making the Playoff, but even their most ardent supporters didn't think it would become a reality. So there is disappointment, but recognition of accomplishment, too. The difference is that they ended on a bad note against Wisconsin, where a win would have put them in the Big Ten title game, still with hope of making the Playoff.

Final analysis

These teams have very equal offenses. The difference lies in defense, where Auburn is clearly superior. Hence, the Tigers are the favorite. How have the Gophers fared on offense against top defenses? Let's take a look. Minnesota played three top ten defenses, all late in the season:

• #7 Penn State: Gophers scored 31 at home (adj to 29 pts)
• #3 Iowa: Gophers scored 19 on the road (adj to 21 pts)
• #5 Wisconsin: Gophers scored 17 at home (adj to 15 pts)

These offensive performances started out very good, but declined each time. It's like Penn State didn't quite take the Gophers seriously enough, but Iowa figured them out, and Wisconsin knew just how to stop them. One can only assume Auburn's #9 defense will be able to do the same.

Auburn is a 10 point favorite in our power rating on average, but that includes every game. Is it more realistic to discount Minnesota's early games? If we do, Minnesota is almost 6 points better, giving Auburn just a 4 point win. Sure is nice to be able to disregard your worst performances, right? But the early Gopher games were clearly not representative of the kind of team they would become; Auburn would beat that early-season team by 27 points.

Auburn ended on a high note against Alabama; Minnesota ended on a low note vs. Wisconsin. More bad new for Minnesota, but the Gophers will be a lot more excited by the prospect of a big New Year's Day bowl than Auburn. Also, the Tigers might have emotionally peaked vs. Alabama. After beating their main rival, how excited can they get at the prospect of playing Minnesota?

Expectations for Minnesota peaked after the Penn State game, but after two losses they've gone back to where they were before. It's possible that Minnesota can surprise the Tigers, who might be overconfident. 

But I don't think the Tigers get over- or under-confident. They've played even-keel the whole season, and it's because of their defense. Auburn's offense has been erratic and had a lot of flat games, and after the Alabama game they might have a letdown. But the defense should be able to control the Gopher offense and lead the team to a win. I've settled on a low-scoring game, but not that low scoring.

Prediction:  Auburn 23,  Minnesota 17

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019-2020 Citrus Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #13 Alabama vs. #14 Michigan

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL
Time: Wednesday, January 1 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: ABC

#13 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) vs. #14 Michigan Wolverines (9-3)

Both these teams have a recent history of bowl game underperformance when their season ended in a disappointing fashion, while sometimes overperforming when they have something to prove. Which case will it be for each team?

Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 7 1/2 (over/under 58.5)

This line has stayed mostly steady, up just a half point, and the over/under down a half point from open.

Strength power rating:   #4 Alabama  36,   #11 Michigan  30    
Adjusted for turnovers: Alabama  31-29
Median game rating: Alabama  37-28
Road rating:  Alabama  37-30

Though the Committee only ranked Alabama one spot higher than Michigan, they're still one of the best teams in the country and even the Wolverines are underrated. Out power rating comes up with nearly a 7 point spread to match Vegas, but the score estimate rounds to a 6 point win. It gets a lot closer when we "correct" for turnovers; here, we show what would happen if neither team wins the turnover battle. 

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Alabama	65%	49%
Michigan	35%	51%

A 7 point spread is almost straight down the middle according to our game-comparison system, where Alabama takes about 2/3 of the wins straight up but it's close to 50/50 when you give a touchdown.

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama scoring offense: #3	Michigan scoring defense: #12
Alabama total offense: #4	Michigan total defense: #7
Alabama rushing offense: #63	Michigan rushing defense: #3
Alabama passing offense: #3	Michigan passing defense: #15

Alabama's offense was one of the very best in the country. The key word is "was" because without Tua Tagovailoa's 2,840 passing yards, 71% completion rate, and 33:3 touchdown to interception ratio, they might not be the same. Mac Jones has filled in admirably, completing 70% for 1,176 yards and 11 TDs vs. 3 picks, but much of that was in mop-up duty against Arkansas and against FCS foe Western Carolina. He had 4 TD throws against Auburn but also 2 pick sixes. Regardless, he still has Devonta Smith (1,200 yards) to throw to, which would make things easier for anyone. RB Najee Harris has over 1,000 yards on the ground but Michigan's D is solid there.

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan scoring offense: #15	Alabama scoring defense: #22
Michigan total offense: #35	Alabama total defense: #14
Michigan rushing offense: #51	Alabama rushing defense: #27
Michigan passing offense: #30	Alabama passing defense: #17

Michigan puts points on the board at a good clip, while Alabama's defense is having an off year. But the Tide still outrank the Wolverines in every offensive breakdown listed. QB Shea Patterson had a decent year, throwing for 2,828 yards with a 22:6 TD:int ratio. The thing that might help Michigan the most is how many of Alabama's defensive players are coveted by the pros. Several of them considered skipping the bowl game, since the Tide didn't make the Playoff for the first time in the Playoff's history. Two starters on defense, LB Terrell Lewis and CB Trayvon Diggs have opted to prep for the NFL rather than slum it against Michigan and risk injury. 


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Alabama #94    Michigan #49

A rare weakness for Alabama. We all saw that field goal bounce off the upright; the Tide placekickers made only 12 of 18 attempts this season.

 

Alabama's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. =Duke 42-3
   
2. New Mexico St 62-10
   
3. @South Carolina 47-23
   
4. Southern Miss 49-7
   
5. Mississippi 59-31
   
6. @Texas A&M 47-28
   
7. Tennessee 35-13
   
8. Arkansas 48-7
   
9. #1 LSU 41-46
   
10. @Mississippi St 38-7
    
11. Western Carolina 66-3
    
12. @#12 Auburn 45-48

Some wonder why the Committee only has Alabama at #13, but if you look at their résumé alone—and ignore some of the dominance they showed—they're lucky to be that high. They beat three losing teams to start the season, then beat 3 bowl teams in the next 5 games. A home loss to #1 LSU, and a beatdown of Ole Miss later, and then they lost their star quarterback. Their win over Western Carolina was dominant, but that was Western Carolina. Trying to convince the Committee they were nearly the same without Tua, they instead lost to Auburn. Even had they won, they didn't have a tough enough schedule for serious Playoff consideration as a 1-loss team with no conference championship. Make no mistake though, they were one of the nation's best teams and still are even without Tua. The performance level in their 2 losses would be the envy of most teams. Is it us, though, or is there a slight downslope in their game performances? If so, it's actually the defense's fault, as they were pretty inconsistent while the offense just kept rollin'.

 

Michigan's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. MTSU 40-21
   
2. Army 24-21 2OT
   
3. @#8 Wisconsin 14-35
   
4. Rutgers 52-0
   
5. #16 Iowa 10-3
   
6. @Illinois 42-25
   
7. @#10 Penn State 21-28
   
8. #15 Notre Dame 45-14
   
9. @Maryland 38-7
   
10. Michigan St 44-10
    
11. @Indiana 39-14
    
12. #2 Ohio State 27-56

Observers of Michigan's season noted all the same things: at first, they didn't play at the level they were expected to achieve. But then they hit their stride, and even raised their game to a level where they had a chance against Ohio State. Then they got killed. It's what makes this Michigan season so disappointing for fans: expectations were higher than reality yet again, and they lost to the Buckeyes yet again.

Ranked #7 in the AP to start the season, the opening win over Middle Tennessee was pretty suspect, and when the Wolverines needed overtime to beat Army it looked like something was wrong. Wisconsin proved that was the case, beating them 35-14. The team recovered very well from that loss, though, taking their frustrations out on Rutgers and outlasting a dogged Iowa team, same for a rejuvenated Illinois. But they fell short against Penn State, giving them Big Ten loss #2 and almost ensuring no title. Yet they bounced back again, demolishing Notre Dame for their biggest and best win in years. They beat another rival, Michigan State 44-10. They were playing at their peak when they hosted the Buckeyes, but it didn't matter. Once again, a loss, and a bad loss.

The question is, will the Wolverines bounce back after that loss, like they did after the first two? Or did it finally break their will?

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Alabama's season: -3 wins; Michigan's season: -1 win
• Alabama's momentum: -2 wins; Michigan's momentum: -1 win
• Alabama glad to be here? NO; Michigan glad to be here: maybe...
• Alabama time zones from home: 1; Michigan time zones from home: 0;
• Alabama coaching situation: unchanged; Michigan coaching situation: unchanged

These two teams have certain standards that have been determined over the last 50 years of college football, and in particular the last 10 years. Michigan's standards are high, but they're a lot lower than Alabama's. The Wolverines expect to complete for the Big Ten title. If they can't do that, then they just want to beat Ohio State. Alabama expects to be in the Playoff every year (why not? They were so far) and really anything less than a national championship is a disappointment. So while Alabama by no means considers a New Year's Day bowl an appropriate destination, Michigan might have accepted their fate enough to realize they had a pretty good year. Alabama's hopes didn't end until their last game. Michigan's last game was just adding insult to injury.

We don't know how each team will react. Michigan played great after each of their first two losses, but the loss to Ohio State was devastating. Alabama will certainly lack motivation to win this game, but they still might take out their frustrations on the Wolverines. Two de-motivated teams will take the field on New Year's Day, and rather than may the best team win, may the more depressed team lose.

Final analysis

Has Alabama quarterback Mac Jones had time to settle in? He's done well other than the two bad throws vs. Auburn, and I'm sure that was a learning experience. More time, and more reps in practice, and he could be nearly as effective as Tua. At least, he might avoid making big mistakes.

And what about on defense? Alabama's defense was already their most suspect in years and they'll be without some key starters. They always have good backups, and in this bowl situation, they might rather have a focused backup play than a jaded veteran looking ahead to the NFL.

Let's try to make sense of these teams and their motivational pros and cons during the bowl season over the last few decades or so. There have been a lot of interesting examples, we'll try to pick somewhat similar situations.

    Michigan (all years with Jim Harbaugh as coach):

• 2018 #7 Michigan 15, #10 Florida 41 (Peach)
  Lost opener to #3 Notre Dame, won 10 straight. Lost to #6 Ohio State 62-39. HUGE disappointment. Finished 10-2; Favored by 4 over Florida. Lost by 26
• 2017 Michigan 19, South Carolina 26 (Outback)
  Started 8-2, losses to #9 Penn State, #16 MSU; lost to #6 Wisconsin, then #5 Ohio State 31-20. At 8-4, Sent to Outback Bowl, Favored by 8, lost by 6
• 2016 #6 Michigan 32, #11 FSU 33 (Orange)
  Won first 9 games, tripped at unranked Iowa. Still controlled destiny, but lost to #3 Ohio State 30-27. Record: 10-2, Favored by 6 over FSU. Lost by 1.
• 2015 #14 Michigan 41, #19 Florida 7 (Citrus)
  Started 9-2 with losses only to ranked teams #22 Utah and #3 MSU. Lost to #7 Ohio State 42-13. Finish: 9-3; Favored by 4, won by 34.  

So Michigan twice in the last 4 years (2016, 2018) controlled their own destiny to the Playoff but a loss to Ohio State killed that dream. In 2017 they already had 3 losses and in 2015, 2 losses. The 2015 situation is a lot like this year: losses to 2 ranked teams, then a 29 point loss to Ohio State, ranked #14 and sent to the Citrus Bowl. Their opponent that year (Florida) started 10-1 but lost to rival FSU then to Alabama in the SEC title game, and fell to the Citrus Bowl, so they were pretty unmotivated and it showed.

    Alabama (all years under Nick Saban where they did not play for the national title or in the Playoff):

• 2013 #3 Alabama 31, #11 Oklahoma 45 (Sugar)
  Started 11-0, lost to Auburn, fell from National Championship contention to the Sugar Bowl. At 11-1, favored by 15, lost by 14
• 2010 #16 Alabama 49, #7 Michigan State 7 (Capital One) 
  Lost to #20 South Carolina, #11 LSU, and #1 Auburn. Finished 9-3, Favored by 8, won by 42
• 2008 #4 Alabama 17, #6 Utah 31 (Sugar)
  Started 12-0, lost to #2 Florida in SEC title game, fell from National Championship game to Sugar Bowl; 12-1, favored by 9, lost by 14

These are the only years, other than Saban's first year in Tuscaloosa, where they didn't play for the national championship. That's insane. 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2013 are the "dud" years and now 2019 joins them. Alabama had 2 distinct reactions: losing by 2 touchdowns to a team they were supposed to beat fairly easily, and demolishing by 42 a team they were supposed to beat fairly easily. In that game (Michigan State) it was clear they felt they had something to prove, ranked #16 and playing #7; also, the Strength power rating favored them by 19 points, so the blowout wasn't unexpected. Both other years, Alabama was headed to the national championship game but a loss to Auburn or Florida knocked them to the Sugar Bowl, where they lost by two touchdowns.

So with Michigan's 2015 season the most similar, and either 2008 or 2013 Alabama the model, history—or at least, historical similarity—favors the Wolverines. Nobody expects Michigan to win by 34 points, but 14 or 15 is possible.

So far Michigan has been bouncing back from defeat pretty solidly. So did Alabama from the LSU loss, but that was before they lost Tua and the defensive starters that will be sitting out the bowl game. The trick for Nick Saban is to convince the team they have something to prove, like the 2010 team that bounced back from a 9-3 season to destroy the Spartans. Again, no one expects the Tide to beat Michigan by 42, but many expect the Wolverines to fold again in the big game.

The same was expected of Oklahoma in 2013. We think Michigan might bounce back one more time.

Prediction:  Michigan 34,  Alabama 23

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Alamo Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #11 Utah vs. Texas

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX
Time: Tuesday, December 31 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#11 Utah Utes (11-2) vs. Texas Longhorns (7-5)

A game that could very well come down to which team is more disappointed in their season's fate.

Vegas line/spread: Utah by 7  (over/under 55)

Movement: The line tightened by a half point early on, then remained at 7 by game day. The over/under rose a half point.

Strength power rating:   #10 Utah  31,   #20 Texas  24    
Adjusted for turnovers:  Utah  28-22
Median game rating:  Utah  31-26
Road games rating:  Utah  29-26

Vegas had Utah by 7 1/2 originally, we have Utah by about 6 1/2. That closes a bit more if we adjust for turnover "luck", or use the teams' median game ratings to cull outlier results. Finally, we look at the teams' road game performance. If teams play a lot worse on the road than normal, perhaps that translates to neutral location play? In this case, Utah plays about an extra point worse on the road than the standard HFA deduction, and we don't apply it to Texas as the Longhorns are playing close to home. In any case Utah still wins by about a field goal.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 1/2 Spread
Utah	63%	47%
Texas	37%	53%

Using game ratings based on our Strength power rating, we cross-compare every game these teams have played; almost 2/3 of the time Utah is the winner. Offsetting the results by 7.5 points shows Texas covering just over half the time.

When Utah has the ball

Utah scoring offense: #23	Texas scoring defense: #40
Utah total offense: #42	Texas total defense: #65
Utah rushing offense: #27	Texas rushing defense: #15
Utah passing offense: #74	Texas passing defense: #66

Utah appears to have an edge here, with a top 25 scoring defense to Texas' #40 ranking. Both teams are skewed in terms of yardage: Utah scores more than their total offense numbers would suggest, and Texas has a bend-but-don't-break profile on defense, giving up yardage but not points. In both cases turnovers are a factor: Texas gets a lot of them, and Utah doesn't commit many. So something has to give!

Broken down in to rushing and passing stats, Texas' D looks up to the task of slowing down the Utes, as they rank very well against Utah's strong ground game, and good enough against the pass. Utah's Zack Moss has 1,359 yards on the ground—best in the Pac-12—while QB Tyler Huntley has 2,966 yards and an 18:4 TD:int ratio. The pass ranking isn't very high but again, the lack of turnovers leads to more points.

When Texas has the ball

Texas scoring offense: #12	Utah scoring defense: #6
Texas total offense: #8	Utah total defense: #4
Texas rushing offense: #30	Utah rushing defense: #7
Texas passing offense: #16	Utah passing defense: #9

Despite their up and down season, Texas has been an offensive powerhouse, ranking borderline top ten in scoring and total offense. The ground game and passing game are both solid. Sam Elinger has thrown for 3,462 yards and 29 TDs with 9 interceptions, and top target Devin Duvernay has 103 receptions for 1,294 yards. Two Longhorns have 600+ rushing yards and Elinger adds 590. This all looks great until you view Utah's defense, one of the best and most well-rounded in the country. Scoring, yardage, rushing, and passing—they're top ten in everything. It will be a challenge for Texas' offense. The issue for Utah is whether they'll have their full defense on the field for the bowl game; already DE Jaylon Johnson said he will skip the game to prep for the NFL, though DE Bradlee Anae, who has 12.5 sacks, has decided to play. Meanwhile starting safety Julian Blackmon is out with injury.

Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Utah #89    Texas #80

This might be the one area where both teams are below average. Hopefully it doesn't come down to special teams play!

 

Utah's season (11-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. @Brigham Young 30-12
   
2. Northern Illinois 35-17
   
3. Idaho St 31-0
   
4. @#22 Southern Cal 23-30
   
5. Washington St 38-13
   
6. @Oregon St 52-7
   
7. Arizona St 21-3
   
8. California 35-0
   
9. @Washington 33-28
   
10. UCLA 49-3
    
11. @Arizona 35-7
    
12. Colorado 45-15
    
13. =#6 Oregon 15-37

Utah might not have started off thinking Playoff, but at some point it became a realistic goal. Nothing in Utah's first four games suggested they were really that good; they beat BYU on the road, sure, but two more tepid wins and a loss to USC suggested they would be relegated to a mid-level bowl lik, say, the Alamo Bowl. But then they started winning big, looking good, passing the "eye test." Never mind that they hadn't beaten a top 25 team—neither had Clemson!—the stretch of performances they put on for 8 games was as good as almost any team. They just had to beat Oregon and hope the Committee chose them. Instead, they were devastated by the Ducks, 37-15, and to add insult to injury, ended up in the Alamo Bowl anyway.

Texas's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. Louisiana Tech 45-14
   
2. #1 LSU 38-45
   
3. @Rice 48-13
   
4. #25 Oklahoma St 36-30
   
5. @West Virginia 42-31
   
6. =#4 Oklahoma 27-34
   
7. Kansas 50-48
   
8. @TCU 27-37
   
9. Kansas St 27-24
   
10. @Iowa St 21-23
    
11. @#7 Baylor 10-24
    
12. Texas Tech 49-24

Texas, in retrospect, played great for half the season. They crushed a 9-3 Louisiana Tech team, 45-14, in the opener, and played #1 LSU to within a touchdown. Three solid wins later they faced Oklahoma and played the #4 Sooners to within a touchdown. Great performances, but still two losses, and two losses means no Playoff for you.

Their disappointment was clear as the Longhorns were MIA on defense against Kansas and almost got upset, and they did get upset by TCU the next week. They edged Kansas State but fell to Iowa State and Baylor, before rebounding with a big win over Texas Tech, possibly their best game. Does the fact that they finished strong mean they've gotten over much of the disappointment?

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Utah's season: +2 wins; Texas's season: -2 wins
• Utah's momentum: +0 wins; Texas's momentum: -1 win
• Utah glad to be here? NO; Texas glad to be here: no
• Utah time zones from home: 1; Texas time zones from home: 0
• Utah coaching situation: unchanged; Texas coaching situation: fired OC

Texas was expecting great things from the start, given last year's 10-3 finish. Utah might not have, but they soon raised their expectations to the level at which they were playing. Both teams ended up in the Alamo Bowl, which is not where either of them wanted to be. Utah improved over last year by 2 games which Texas declined by 2 wins, but Texas played their best game at the end, and Utah possibly their worst. Utah's wound is still open, while Texas' might have healed somewhat.

Final analysis

Texas and Utah both had objectively successful seasons, but neither ended up being satisfactory. Texas was arguably the better team for the first third of the season, but then the Utes kicked into a higher gear and Texas stumbled after the Oklahoma loss soured their hope for a superb year. Utah's disappointment came late, but it was harsher, as they had realistic hopes of getting to the Playoff, and certainly deserved a bigger bowl than this one.

Both teams have very good turnover margins, but that can't work for both teams in the same game. Whoever wins the turnover game probably wins the game. This looks particularly important when Utah is on offense; they can't afford any drive-killing turnovers, while Texas's D gives up a lot of yardage relatively and is somewhat dependent on turnovers to prevent scoring. 

Utah has a number of players that might miss the game to prepare for the NFL. Currently, Zack Moss and most of the seniors have decided to play, but Jaylon Johnson has decided not to, and Bradlee Anae is still deciding, but the fact that so many key players are making this decision says two things: 1) Utah has a lot of great players, and 2) Utah is not very excited about this bowl game. If it were a bigger bowl that meant something, or against a team with a better record, there wouldn't be much question in most players' mind. But again, this underscores how they feel having just missed out on the Playoff.

Texas probably doesn't feel as bad about this bowl as Utah. The Longhorns knew for a while they weren't getting anything better. And they're playing close to home. To their view, they're facing a very worthy opponent; #11 Utah might not think the same, which hurts motivation and/or could lead to overconfidence. And even if both teams were equally unmotivated, Texas will probably field nearly its entire team, while key Utah players are injured, skipping out, or still deciding. (Texas does have several players questionable for the game).

Last year Texas took advantage of playing a very down Georgia team and pulled off a big upset. They were a much bigger underdog then—about 12 points—and weren't any better last year, ranking #26 in Strength before that bowl. The difference is that last year's team was on an upswing. Can the Longhorns do it again? I hate to not give Texas credit, but it depends more on Utah. The Utes are probably feeling roughly as low as Georgia was, and the Bulldogs were playing in the Sugar Bowl, which is at least some consolation. That bowl had a 19 point swing from spread to result; if half of that was Georgia and half credit to Texas, then Utah could play 9 1/2 points worse than the spread expectation. Texas isn't going to see the upside this year from their play, I wager, but they still get a 2 point upset win. They say lightning doesn't strike twice but that's completely false—it strikes again and again, under the same conditions.

Prediction:  Texas 30,  Utah 28

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Arizona Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Wyoming vs. Georgia State

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Arizona Bowl in Tucson, AZ
Time: Tuesday, December 31 at 4:30 pm ET
TV: CBS Sports Network

Wyoming Cowboys (7-5) vs. Georgia State Panthers (7-5)

Two Group of Five teams that upset SEC opponents in their openers meet. Wyoming and Georgia State will clash in Tucson; don't expect too much passing.

Vegas line/spread: Wyoming by 7 (over/under 48)

There was little movement in the line overall. The spread dipped a half point from 7 1/2 to 7 on game day.

Strength power rating:   #69 Wyoming  34,   #101 Georgia State  23     
Adjusted for turnovers: Wyoming  32-23
Median game rating: Wyoming  31-24

We rank Wyoming just #69, but Georgia State is #101 out of 130 teams, making the Cowboys a wide favorite. The edge narrows when you make certain adjustments, and when using median Strength it roughly matches the 7.5 point spread. We call for a few more points than the oddsmakers though. 

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7.5 Spread
Wyoming	68%	56%
Georgia State	32%	44%

Wyoming wins more than 2/3 of the time according to our game-comparison system. And since our spread is higher, Wyoming still takes the majority of trials against a 7 1/2 point margin.

When Wyoming has the ball

Wyoming scoring offense: #101	Georgia St scoring defense: #120
Wyoming total offense: #104	Georgia St total defense: #112
Wyoming rushing offense: #26	Georgia St rushing defense: #119
Wyoming passing offense: #126	Georgia St passing defense: #108

Wyoming's offense, overall, is not very good, in fact, let's just call it bad because it is. Yet Georgia State's defense is even worse. And unfortunately for the Panthers, the Cowboy offense is not uniformly bad, but just awful at passing while being nearly top 25 level on the ground, where Georgia State's defense is #119. RB Xazavian Valladay leads the Cowboy ground game with 1,061 yards. Running QB Sean Chambers is #2 but he was lost for the season in late October, which also hurt their already-paltry passing game.

When Georgia State has the ball

Georgia St scoring offense: #59	Wyoming scoring defense: #38
Georgia St total offense: #50	Wyoming total defense: #67
Georgia St rushing offense: #13	Wyoming rushing defense: #11
Georgia St passing offense: #107	Wyoming passing defense: #87

As impressive as Wyoming's running game is, Georgia State's is even more so, almost ranking in the top ten nationally. The difference is that Wyoming has a more-than-capable rush defense to counter it. Tra Barnett leads the Panthers with 1,389 rushing yards; QB Dan Ellington adds 598 and isn't a terrible passer, owning a 21:7 ratio.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Wyoming #32    Georgia State #123

 

Wyoming's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. Missouri* 37-31
   
2. @Texas St 23-14
   
3. Idaho 21-16
   
4. @Tulsa 21-24
   
5. UNLV 53-17
   
6. @San Diego St 22-26
   
7. New Mexico 23-10
   
8. Nevada 31-3
   
9. @#19 Boise St 17-20 OT
   
10. @Utah St 21-26
    
11. Colorado St 17-7
    
12. @Air Force 6-20

Wyoming's best moment of the 2019 season came early when they upset Missouri 37-31. It was a great kickoff to the year but their next two games weren't nearly as impressive and they lost at Tulsa. A huge win over UNLV righted the ship but they couldn't outlast San Diego State. The Cowboys got two more wins and were a solid, bowl-eligible 6-2 after beating Nevada but they lost QB Sean Chambers during that win. Nevertheless, they traveled to Boise and almost upset the Broncos, losing in overtime 20-17. They lost two more road games and beat Colorado State at home to finish 7-5, losing 3 of their last 4 but almost pulling off a huge upset. They were a perfect 6-0 at home but just 1-5 on the road but to be fair, other than 4-8 Tulsa their road losses were to bowl teams that finished 9-3, 12-1, 7-5, and 10-2.

 

Georgia State's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (2)

1. @Tennessee 38-30
   
2. Furman 48-42
   
3. @Western Michigan 10-57
   
4. @Texas St 34-37 3OT
   
5. Arkansas St 52-38
   
6. @Coastal Carolina 31-21
   
7. Army 28-21
   
8. Troy 52-33
   
9. @Louisiana-Monroe 31-45
   
10. #20 Appalachian St 27-56
    
11. South Alabama 28-15
    
12. @Georgia Southern 10-38

Georgia State pulled off an upset even bigger than Wyoming beating Missouri—they beat Tennessee in Knoxville! And like Wyoming, they hit a slump afterwards, letting Furman score 42 and then losing terribly to Western Michigan, 57-10. Even the subsequent loss to Texas State in overtime was a huge improvement. From there, though, the Panthers managed four solid wins in a row, including a win over Army, who has the nation's #11 rushing offense, holding them to 21 points. But the team collapsed in its last four games, going 1-3 and playing almost uniformly poorly but particularly on defense. That doesn't bode well for the bowl game.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Wyoming's season: +1 win***; Georgia State's season: +5 wins***
• Wyoming's momentum: -1 win; Georgia State's momentum: -1 win
• Wyoming glad to be here? YES; Georgia State glad to be here: YES
• Wyoming time zones from home: 0; Georgia State time zones from home: 2
• Wyoming coaching situation: unchanged; Georgia State coaching situation: unchanged

Both teams gained wins this year from last year. Wyoming only added one, while Georgia State added 5 to their 2-10 2018 campaign. So Georgia State must be the happier of the two teams...but note that Wyoming, though 6-6 last year, didn't go to a bowl game. 7-5 is only a 1-game improvement, but sometimes it's the difference between going bowling or not.

Wyoming and Georgia State had similar season trajectories: a huge upset win, followed by some disappointment, recovery to bowl eligibility, then losing 3 out of 4 at the end, in the same L-L-W-L pattern. So no advantage to either one for momentum; it seems negative for both, but each team should be psyched based on improvement from last year's situation at this time of the year.

Final analysis

If it's ground game vs. ground game, but only Wyoming has the defense—#11 against the run—to win that kind of battle, right? Certainly not Georgia State's #119 rated rush D. Yet strangely enough, Georgia State managed to beat Army, a team with a much better ground game than Wyoming. So you never know.

Georgia State also might count on Wyoming taking them lightly, as they've only been an FBS team for 7 years and they were 2-10 last year. It could happen, but that would be more likely if the Panthers were facing a Power Five member. These teams have the same 7-5 record.

Though Wyoming's ground game is solid, is it still the same since QB Sean Chambers was lost for the season?  Without a run-option quarterback the Cowboys have leaned on RB Valladay a lot more, and he has delivered, but how has the offense fared? Turns out, not great. But then again, Wyoming's offense rarely played well overall. They had three good games: Missouri (37 points), UNLV (53), and San Diego State (22 on the #15 defense). The loss of Chambers was limiting more than damaging.

And if we're talking about Wyoming's offensive issues, we have to acknowledge the steady improvement on the defensive side: the Cowboys played 13 points better on defense in the 2nd half of the season than the first half, or 6.5 points better than the full-season average. That pretty much offsets any offensive decline.

Both teams lost three out of their last four games, but the level of play was very different. Wyoming played well even when losing (they took Boise State to overtime!); Georgia State played poorly, even in the game they won. The Cowboys were 20 points better than the Panthers in the home stretch. Does that mean they will be 20 points better come New Year's Day? No, but a team's last month, when it is as consistent as they both were, winning or losing, says a lot.

Prediction:  Wyoming 34, Georgia State 14

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Liberty Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #23 Navy vs. Kansas State

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Liberty Bowl in Memphis, TN
Time: Tuesday, December 31 at 3:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#23 Navy Midshipmen (10-2) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4)

Fresh off a win over Army, the Midshipmen have just a few weeks to prep for Kansas State.

Vegas line/spread: Navy by 3 (over/under 53.5)

Moves: The line edged up from 2, then to 3 points by game day. The o/u is up from 52.

Strength power rating:   #26 Navy 28,   #24 Kansas State 28    
Adjusted for turnovers: Navy 27-26
Median game rating: 30-30

Here's our closest game yet. Vegas gave Navy an opening 2 point edge but our Strength ratings won't even do that—by our power rating, the game is a virtual tie. Though K-State ranks 24th and Navy 26th in our FBS-only ranking, in our All-Division power rating the Midshipmen are 23rd, so the projected outcome is a win for Navy in about 3 overtimes. Adjusting for turnover luck Navy is a 1-point favorite, while using the median yields another overtime win for Navy (only 1 overtime this time around). On paper (or, on the computer?), this is a very, very close game. Let's see if we can find some clues to provide some separation.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -2 Spread
Navy	50.7%	44%
Kansas State	49.3%	56%

Since our power rating result was so close, I was interested in seeing how the game-comparison system results come out. It could have gone either way depending on each team's distribution of performances, and it went toward Navy by a tiny percentage. The other outcome—Navy not covering the majority against the spread—was a foregone conclusion since they are roughly 50/50 straight up.

When Navy has the ball

Navy scoring offense: #20	Kansas State scoring defense: #18
Navy total offense: #25	Kansas State total defense: #26
Navy rushing offense: #1	Kansas State rushing defense: #58
Navy passing offense: #128	Kansas State passing defense: #40

By scoring offense and defense this is certainly an even matchup, but with Navy's triple-option you have to look at the run/pass breakdowns and there they don't favor the Wildcats very much. K-State does a decent job against the pass but they're around average vs. the run, which is a bad thing to be when facing Navy. In fact, K-State's rush defense is #108 in raw figures but they've generally faced great rushing teams. They'll face the best on a per-game basis when they play Navy. The Midshipmen have rushed for over 4,000 yards this year led by option QB Malcolm Perry's 1,804 yards and 21 TDs. For comparison, he has passed for just 1,027 yards and 6 TDs. Kansas State will have its hands full, especially in the red zone where Navy is #3 and K-State's defense is dead last at #130.

When Kansas State has the ball

Kansas State scoring offense: #33	Navy scoring defense: #44
Kansas State total offense: #84	Navy total defense: #32
Kansas State rushing offense: #46	Navy rushing defense: #19
Kansas State passing offense: #104	Navy passing defense: #55

K-State ranks high in scoring offense but not in total offensive yardage, a common phenomenon caused by, among other things, limiting turnovers and good red zone offense. K-State has both, including the #2 red zone offense in the nation. K-State also runs the ball a lot, though nearly not on the scale of Navy, and they pass a lot more but not terribly effectively. Navy's defense is pretty good, particularly against the run as you might expect. 


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Navy #57    Kansas State #24

 

Navy's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. Holy Cross 45-7
   
2. East Carolina 42-10
   
3. @#17 Memphis 23-35
   
4. Air Force 34-25
   
5. @Tulsa 45-17
   
6. South Florida 35-3
   
7. Tulane 41-38
   
8. @Connecticut 56-10
   
9. @#15 Notre Dame 20-52
   
10. SMU 35-28
    
11. @Houston 56-41
    
12. Army 31-7

Navy might have played an easy schedule, but they didn't lose to any of the lesser teams they played and were never even close to being upset by a losing team, something not many teams can say. They blew out Holy Cross, East Carolina, Tulsa, South Florida, UConn, Houston, and Army. Hardly a murderer's row, but neither was Clemson's schedule. They also beat 10-2 Air Force and 10-2 SMU, two teams that really should be in the top 25. The two teams Navy lost to actually are in the top 25: Memphis and Notre Dame. The loss to the Irish was Navy's only really bad moment of the season, but they rebounded from it to score three solid wins, finish 10-2, and rank #23 in the Committee's eyes.

 

Kansas State's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

1. Nicholls St 49-14
   
2. Bowling Green 52-0
   
3. @Mississippi St 31-24
   
4. @#25 Oklahoma St 13-26
   
5. #7 Baylor 12-31
   
6. TCU 24-17
   
7. #4 Oklahoma 48-41
   
8. @Kansas 38-10
   
9. @Texas 24-27
   
10. West Virginia 20-24
    
11. @Texas Tech 30-27
    
12. Iowa St 27-17

Like Navy, Kansas State only beat three bowl teams all season, but one of them was a big one. The Wildcats started a solid 3-0 but faltered in their first two conference games against top 25 foes. But they recovered to win three in a row again, the middle one being the biggest win of the season for any team so far, by top 25 measures, in beating #4 Oklahoma 48-41. They had a mixed finish after that, losing to Texas and West Virginia before winning two to end the season 8-4.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Navy's season: +7 wins; Kansas State's season: +3 wins
• Navy's momentum: +0 wins; Kansas State's momentum: +0 wins
• Navy glad to be here? YES; Kansas State glad to be here: YES
• Navy time zones from home: 1; Kansas State time zones from home: 0
• Navy coaching situation: unchanged; Kansas State coaching situation: unchanged

Both schools had great turnaround seasons this year. Kansas State went from 5-7 to 8-4, while Navy amazingly went from 3-10 to 10-2. The bottom line for both is that they didn't go bowling last year but they are this year. As such, both teams ought to be fired up to be playing on New Year's Eve.

Final analysis

The scoring numbers suggest a tight game but K-State doesn't pan out in the yardage comparisons, with a middling-to-poor rushing defense trying to stop the most prolific ground attack in the nation. That looks bad for Kansas State, but strangely enough, the two teams that beat Navy also had mediocre rush defenses. Notre Dame is #47 and Memphis #49, better than K-State's #58 but certainly not incredible.

However, Kansas State also has the #130 red zone defense in the country—dead last—while Navy is #3 in red zone offense. That looks like a recipe for disaster certainly. But surprise, once again, the teams that beat Navy also suck in the red zone. This one really amazed me: Notre Dame is #129 in the red zone on defense! And Memphis is #125. You wouldn't think any team with a middling rush defense and terrible red zone defense would be able to hang with the #1 rushing team with the #3 red zone offense, but there you go. Navy scored just 20 points on Notre Dame and 23 on Memphis.

Could Kansas State even find an advantage in terms of the scheduling of the bowl game, and Navy's late game with Army? The Wildcats haven't played since November 30, while Navy played Army on December 14th. That's an extra 2 weeks K-State has had to rest, heal, and prepare, and an since the bowls were announced on the 8th, they've been preparing for Navy's triple-option since then. 31 days vs. 17 days could mean something, possibly.

Our power rating can't really decide who is going to win this game. The yardage numbers and K-State's atrocious red zone defense has to mean something, right? Yet Navy didn't gain any advantage over the two other teams that had the same problems. There's one way to solve this—to call for a close game, yet have red zone play be the difference. In overtime, everything is pretty much the red zone. If the teams end in a tie, we go to overtime where Navy's red zone advantage finally means something. Kansas State is also great in the red zone on offense (#2) so it might take a few overtime periods.

Prediction:  Navy 48, Kansas State 45  3OT

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Sun Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Florida State vs. Arizona State

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX
Time: Tuesday, December 31 at 2:00 pm ET
TV: CBS

Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) vs. Florida State Seminoles (6-6)

Teams with middling seasons look to see who can raise their game and get another win.

Vegas line/spread: Arizona State by 4 (over/under 54)

Movement: The spread moved from 5 to 4, and the o/u dipped from 54.5

Strength power rating:   #38 Arizona State 26,   #56 Florida State 20    
Adjusted for turnovers: Arizona State 23-20
Median game rating: Arizona State 26-21

Arizona State is favored both by Vegas and our Strength power rating by almost the same amount: 5 points and about 6 1/2 respectively. When we adjust for turnovers (treating them as random occurrences and filtering them out) it becomes a much closer game as ASU has a great turnover margin (and is therefore reliant on them continuing to happen). The median game rating spread is about 5 points.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -5 Spread
Arizona State	76%	50%
Florida State	24%	50%

This is a very interesting result. Straight up, ASU wins 3 out of 4 trials against FSU. But they only win exactly 50% against a 5 point spread, which is very interesting since the average margin of victory is, as we noted above, 6.5 points by the Strength power rating (we'd expect the 50% mark to be around -6.5 points, in other words). To get the game comparisons we compare performance ratings of each team's full schedule and cross-compare them, yielding 144 (12 x 12) results. In this case, ASU wins by > 5 points 72 times. Looking at the teams charts later will tell us why we get this result.

When Arizona State has the ball

Arizona State scoring offense: #62	Florida State scoring defense: #57
Arizona State total offense: #85	Florida State total defense: #74
Arizona State rushing offense: #93	Florida State rushing defense: #26
Arizona State passing offense: #60	Florida State passing defense: #84

ASU only has the #93 scoring offense in the nation, but they've played very tough defenses and after correction, their offense is...still not great, but average for the FBS. ASU can't really run the ball at all and FSU is nearly top-25 against the run, so look for Jayden Daniels (2,748 yards, 17 TDs, 2 int) to see plenty of attempts. A bit problem, however, is that ASU's top receiver, Brandon Aiyuk (1,192 yards) is out preparing for the NFL; he has just about twice the yardage of the next WR. Not only that, but leading rusher Eno Benjamin (1,083 yards) is heading to the NFL as well. Trying to match them, FSU will be without LB Dontavious Jackson and CB Stanford Samuels III. 

When Florida State has the ball

Florida State scoring offense: #63	Arizona State scoring defense: #27
Florida State total offense: #76	Arizona State total defense: #47
Florida State rushing offense: #90	Arizona State rushing defense: #12
Florida State passing offense: #45	Arizona State passing defense: #59

Florida State's offense is very similar statistically to ASU's. Average scoring, well-below average ground game, and better passing game. The Seminoles have used two quarterbacks, the injury-prone James Blackman (2,095 yards, 16 TD, 7 int) and backup Alex Hornibrook (986 yds, 7:2) and had reasonable success with both, but Hornibrook will not play in the bowl game. ASU's defense is better than FSU's overall, but has the same bias toward strong rush defense, and not-as-strong pass defense, so the main opportunity for FSU should be through the air, especially since Cam Akers (1,144 yards) is out preparing for the NFL and backup Khalan Laborn is out with a knee injury. 


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Arizona State #13    Florida State #64

Kicker Christian Zendejas gives Arizona State an edge; he's made 19 of 23 field goal attempts this year.

 

Arizona State's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (3)

1. Kent St 30-7
   
2. Sacramento St 19-7
   
3. @Michigan St 10-7
   
4. Colorado 31-34
   
5. @California 24-17
   
6. Washington St 38-34
   
7. @#11 Utah 3-21
   
8. @UCLA 32-42
   
9. #22 Southern Cal 26-31
   
10. @Oregon St 34-35
    
11. #6 Oregon 31-28
    
12. Arizona 24-14

Arizona State played pretty consistently across the season, but their end results were confounding. Winning 5 of their first 6 games—4 against bowl teams—the one outlier in performance was the home loss to Colorado; after giving up just 21 points in 3 games they Buffaloes scored 34 on them. Then the Sun Devils went on a 4-game losing streak but only one game—the loss to UCLA—was really a poor performance. They reached bowl eligibility in style, topping #6 Oregon 31-28, and beat rival Arizona to close things out. In the end ASU had five losses: two to Committee top 25 teams, and three to teams with losing records. Despite this their gameplay was remarkably consistent 9 out of 12 outings.

 

Florida State's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. #19 Boise St 31-36
   
2. Louisiana-Monroe 45-44 OT
   
3. @#24 Virginia 24-31
   
4. Louisville 35-24
   
5. North Carolina St 31-13
   
6. @#3 Clemson 14-45
   
7. @Wake Forest 20-22
   
8. Syracuse 35-17
   
9. Miami FL 10-27
   
10. @Boston College 38-31
    
11. Alabama St 49-12
    
12. @#9 Florida 17-40

Florida State is also a very consistent team, really having just two outlier performances, both on the downside. One was the ULM overtime win, the other the 27-10 home loss to Miami that doomed coach Willie Taggart. In fact, it's amazing their performances were so stable considering the turmoil that supposedly rocked the program. In the end 4 of their 6 losses were to Committee top 25 teams, but they only beat 3 bowl teams and hardly played a game that could be called 'great.'

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Arizona State's season: +0 wins; Florida State's season: +1 win
• Arizona State's momentum: -3 wins; Florida State's momentum: +0 wins
• Arizona State glad to be here? probably; Florida State glad to be here: probably...
• Arizona State time zones from home: 0; Florida State time zones from home: 2
• Arizona State coaching situation: unchanged; Florida State coaching situation: Coach fired

For ASU, this season is similar to last year's 7-5, and it's good to be going to a bowl game close to home, but they go to the Sun Bowl quite a bit. It's nothing new, but it's not bad to head to El Paso. For Florida State, it's also a mixed bag. After a 5-7 2018 with no bowl game, going anywhere should feel like an accomplishment. On the other hand, the program is not very far removed from a national title (2014) and they went to the Orange Bowl just three years ago. 

We show negative "momentum" for ASU, but that's just a simple measure of wins in the 1st half of the season vs. wins in the 2nd half. It's true that the Sun Devils hit a bad snap and lost 4 games in a row, but they closed out with the big Oregon upset and a win over rival Arizona, so you could argue they now have positive momentum.

The elephant here is of course the firing of Willie Taggart as FSU head coach, and what that did to the team, and what it means for the bowl game. Clearly, it's not ideal, but maybe enough time has passed for the team to adjust. Post-Taggart, the team won two games and lost to Florida, playing about the same as they played during Taggart.

Final analysis

We said that looking at the charts would explain the lower 50/50 point in our game-comparisons, but nothing stands out other than how consistent both teams are. It looks like ASU's one big upside outlier is skewing the mean, so that median point is +5 instead of the expected +6.5. It makes sense considering the spread using median rather than mean is also 5 points.

These teams have almost equivalent scoring offenses. Even their focus is the same; both teams are weak on the ground and much better through the air. But Arizona State has a much better defense—nearly top 25 in scoring defense—than the Seminoles. Both teams are very tough against the run but less so against the pass, so expect to see a lot of passing.

For Florida State to win, they have to raise their game a bit. But it doesn't look like they're capable of that; their chart shows a team that, given 12 chances, played within a narrow range with a few downside outliers but a definite "ceiling." Not that ASU is expected to level up, either; they did so exactly once, against Oregon. But their average level is a bit higher than FSU's to start with.

Florida State's motivation can be questioned after an emotionally tough season. They had pretty high expectations for a turnaround year, and while they reached a bowl game it's not a great one. The Sun Bowl is where USC ended up the year they started at #1; unmotivated and plagued with infighting, they lost to Georgia Tech 21-7. Not the same circumstances at all as FSU is the underdog, but USC was 3 years removed from a Rose Bowl win just as FSU is 3 years post-Orange Bowl win. If they come in flat it could be a disaster, but their three performances since Taggart was fired haven't been worse than normal.

So we've removed the teams' outlier games, two for FSU and three for ASU, and the results are roughly a 5 point win for Arizona State. Since that matches the original Vegas spread and the exact 50/50 tipping point in our game-comparison system, it seems a reasonable projection.

Both teams are missing key players. ASU is missing their top receiver and top running back. FSU is missing their top two running backs, their backup QB, and two defensive starters. Almost all of these are for NFL prep, which again makes us ask, does anyone want to win this game? The offenses are going to be hurt here; ASU's Aiyuk is their key receiver, and losing Benjamin means they pretty much have to throw the ball. Meanwhile FSU also has no running game left. We're going to dock each team a touchdown from our original prediction, but keep our spread the same.

Prediction:  Arizona State 19, Florida State 14

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Belk Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Belk Bowl in Charlotte, NC
Time: Tuesday, December 31 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ESPN

Virginia Tech Hokies (8-4) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5)

Nothing says tradition like the Belk Bowl. At least they got two pretty evenly matched teams, both of whom had major quarterback issues this season.

Vegas line/spread: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2 (over/under 47)

Both the spread and over/under have ticked down just a half point by game day.

Strength power rating:   #44 Kentucky 25,  #50 Virginia Tech 20     
Adjusted for turnovers: Kentucky  25-22
Median game rating: Kentucky  24-19
FBS-games only: Kentucky 23-22

A fairly rare game where the Strength power rating disagrees with Vegas; they have the Hokies by 3 early while we have the Wildcats by 5, reduced to 3 if we discount turnover effects, and down to about a point and a half if we remove VT's two lame showings against FCS teams. Let's see if we can see what Vegas does, or whether we'll be picking an upset.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Virginia Tech	42%	37%
Kentucky	58%	63%

Since we favor Kentucky, they win the majority of game comparisons, and a 3 point spread in favor of Virginia Tech shows Kentucky covering 5 out of 8 times.

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Virginia Tech scoring offense: #56	Kentucky scoring defense: #24
Virginia Tech total offense: #70	Kentucky total defense: #21
Virginia Tech rushing offense: #60	Kentucky rushing defense: #91
Virginia Tech passing offense: #66	Kentucky passing defense: #20

Virginia Tech's offense is pretty much average across the board; they excel in nothing. Meanwhile Kentucky's defense overall is top 25 level. They do have a weakness against the run, so maybe RB Deshawn McClease (717 yards) can have a good game. The Hokies switched quarterbacks after four game and have done far better with Hendon Hooker (11 TDs, 2 int) at the helm.

When Kentucky has the ball

Kentucky scoring offense: #79	Virginia Tech scoring defense: #51
Kentucky total offense: #73	Virginia Tech total defense: #59
Kentucky rushing offense: #10	Virginia Tech rushing defense: #87
Kentucky passing offense: #123	Virginia Tech passing defense: #36

Kentucky's offense is pretty tepid, too, scoring and gaining ground at a lower clip than Virginia Tech. The while the Hokie defense isn't nearly what it normally was under Frank Beamer, it ranks better than Kentucky's offense. But again, there's a weakness against the run that is bad news considering that Kentucky's rushing offense #10 in adjusted yardage. The UK offense is so run-based that their leading receiver, Lynn Bowden Jr, has about three times as many rushing yards (1,235) as receiving yards (348). Three more Wildcats, all running backs, combine for almost another 2,000 yards and 17 TDs. Bowden was considering skipping the game for NFL prep but he decided to participate, more bad news for the weak Hokie rush D.

UK's terrible passing numbers are a result of the coaches giving up completely on the passing game. QB Terry Wilson was lost after just two games and #2 QB Sawyer Smith had a 46% completion rate and 4:5 ratio. Since mid-season, all-purpose WR Bowden has played wildcat QB and thrown the most passes, but only a handful per game. On the whole, though, it's led to their best performances as Bowden has excelled as a runner.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Virginia Tech #27    Kentucky #31

 

Virginia Tech's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

1. @Boston College 28-35
   
2. Old Dominion 31-17
   
3. Furman 24-17
   
4. Duke 10-45
   
5. @Miami FL 42-35
   
6. Rhode Island 34-17
   
7. North Carolina 43-41 6OT
   
8. @#15 Notre Dame 20-21
   
9. Wake Forest 36-17
   
10. @Georgia Tech 45-0
    
11. Pittsburgh 28-0
    
12. @#24 Virginia 30-39

Virginia Tech didn't impress early, to say the least. An opening loss to Boston College followed by tepid wins over Old Dominion and Furman didn't change perceptions. And then the 45-10 home loss made the Hokies look like one of the worst among the Power Five teams and seemingly put their 26-year bowl streak in jeopardy. Then they upset Miami, beat their 2nd FCS team (shame!), and won a crazy six overtime contest against North Carolina. Suddenly they were 5-2 and played Notre Dame to a standstill in South Bend. Three solid games followed before the loss to rival Virginia. After a very rough start Virginia Tech played a pretty good second act, something to consider—especially since it corresponds with their change at QB.

 

Kentucky's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. Toledo 38-24
   
2. Eastern Michigan 38-17
   
3. #9 Florida 21-29
   
4. @Mississippi St 13-28
   
5. @South Carolina 7-24
   
6. Arkansas 24-20
   
7. @#5 Georgia 0-21
   
8. Missouri* 29-7
   
9. Tennessee 13-17
   
10. @Vanderbilt 38-14
    
11. Tennessee-Martin 50-7
    
12. Louisville 45-13

Kentucky beat four bowl-eligible teams—with an asterisk. They opened with a win over 6-6 Toledo, the only eligible team not chosen for a bowl game. And later they beat Missouri, who qualified at 6-6 but had an NCAA ban upheld. Eastern Michigan was fully legit, but the Wildcats were just as impressive in the narrow Florida loss. The next two losses, Mississippi State and South Carolina, were worse and by the time of the Georgia shutout loss it was clear the Wildcats weren't going to have a repeat of their blessed 2018 campaign. The Missouri win was solid and evened their record at 4-4, but they slipped again against Tennessee. They really needed the Vandy and UT Martin wins the insure bowl eligibility, but for good measure they put together their best performance against Louisville. A frustrating season, perhaps, but a strong finish.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Virginia Tech's season: +2 wins; Kentucky's season: -2 wins
• Virginia Tech's momentum: +0 wins; Kentucky's momentum: +2 wins
• Virginia Tech glad to be here? yes; Kentucky glad to be here: yes
• Virginia Tech time zones from home: 0; Kentucky time zones from home: 0
• Virginia Tech coaching situation: unchanged; Kentucky coaching situation: unchanged

The Hokies improved on last year's record while Kentucky declined from their stellar 2018, but UK's previous season was an outlier, and during this season they found momentum winning 3 of their last four. They also won big in their rivalry game while Virginia Tech fell flat, so overall team morale is probably fairly even.

Final analysis

It looks like this game is going to stay mostly on the ground. Kentucky's pass defense is too good, and their pass offense too poor, to have it any other way. Both rush defenses are bad, and roughly equal, but Kentucky's ground game is far superior to Virginia Tech's, so ultimately they have the advantage when the teams take the line of scrimmage.

Both teams had a bad loss against a team with a losing record. But they don't really compare. Kentucky lost to 4-8 South Carolina 24-7. That's bad, but it was on the road and South Carolina also upset #5 Georgia. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, lost to 5-7 Duke at home, 45-10, one of the worst-rated games we've seen from any bowl team yet. That came fairly early in the season and is such an outlier that we could almost discount it completely; that alone makes it a 1-point game. In fact, exclude Virginia Tech's poor start altogether and they become a 4-point favorite! Is it fair to do that?

Yes, it is. Virginia Tech started the season with Ryan Willis at QB; the team struggled and a change was made to Hendon Hooker after the Duke disaster. With Hooker starting the team is 6-1 (he missed the Notre Dame loss). So we have a reason to favor Virginia Tech after all. 

But if we look into Tech's QB situation we should do the same for Kentucky, which had quarterback problems of their own. They lost their original QB after two games and floundered a while with an inadequate replacement before they switched to the wildcat with their best offensive player at the helm. Since that mid-season change Kentucky has been a lot better overall. And if we can ignore Virginia Tech's first four games, we should be able to ignore Kentucky's first six games, and we're back at a 4-point win for the Wildcats.

Prediction:  Kentucky 24, Virginia Tech 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Orange Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #9 Florida vs. #24 Virginia

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, FL
Time: Monday, December 30 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#9 Florida Gators (10-2) vs. #24 Virginia Cavaliers (9-4)

A couple of forgotten teams that had good seasons, especially the Gators. It should be an air war as both teams pass the ball very well.

Vegas line/spread: Florida by 14 1/2 (over/under 54.5)

Movement: The line opened around 14, moved up to 15 quickly, and has settled at 14 1/2 by game day. The o/u moved up just a half point.

Strength power rating:   #13 Florida 38,   #48 Virginia 19    
Adjusted for turnovers: Florida 36-20
Median game rating: Florida 37-21

Here's the problem with Virginia being here; they just aren't good enough for this big of a bowl game. The Cavaliers only rank 48th in our Strength power rating while Florida is nearly top ten. We could even give Florida partial HFA, maybe a point, for playing in state but why bother.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -14 Spread
Florida	91%	58%
Virginia	9%	42%

Nearly all of Florida's game ratings exceed Virginia's, and even spotting the Cavs two touchdowns doesn't make it even.

When Florida has the ball

Florida scoring offense: #19	Virginia scoring defense: #71
Florida total offense: #18	Virginia total defense: #53
Florida rushing offense: #97	Virginia rushing defense: #79
Florida passing offense: #11	Virginia passing defense: #62

Back in the 90s Florida football was associated with offense on an outrageous scale, but more recently the Gators suffered through roughly a decade where they won on defense and couldn't score to save their lives. Finally, now, Florida is again showing up on offense, even if their defense is still winning games for them. In raw terms it's not too flashy—they rank 35th in scoring—but accounting for their tough SEC schedule they're in the top 25. And harkening back to the '90 again most of their yardage comes through the air. Kyle Trask took over for the injured Feleipe Franks after game 3 and has put up 2,636 yards with a solid 24:6 ratio, not bad for a backup. Virginia's defense isn't on par with what you'd expect from an Orange Bowl team so they'll have to rise to the occasion.

When Virginia has the ball

Virginia scoring offense: #28	Florida scoring defense: #11
Virginia total offense: #61	Florida total defense: #10
Virginia rushing offense: #104	Florida rushing defense: #31
Virginia passing offense: #28	Florida passing defense: #21

Virginia, too, has a prolific passing game, and even less of a ground game than the Gators. They score a lot more than their yardage would indicate, probably from a combination of their good red zone play on offense and good field position on kickoffs. QB Bryce Perkins more or less is the Cavalier offense, throwing for 3,215 yards (18 TDs, 11 int) while leading the team with 745 net yards on the ground. He's been sacked 38 times this year which is bad given that Florida's strong defense has 48 sacks. On the upside for Virginia, Florida will be without NFL-bound CJ Henderson, a key component of their pass defense.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Florida #21    Virginia #10

The brightest spot this year for the Cavaliers has been special teams. Brian Delaney has made 20 of 24 FG attempts and Joe Reed is the #1 kickoff returner in college football.

 

Florida's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. =Miami FL 24-20
   
2. Tennessee-Martin 45-0
   
3. @Kentucky 29-21
   
4. Tennessee 34-3
   
5. Towson 38-0
   
6. #12 Auburn 24-13
   
7. @#1 LSU 28-42
   
8. @South Carolina 38-27
   
9. =#5 Georgia 17-24
   
10. Vanderbilt 56-0
    
11. @Missouri* 23-6
    
12. Florida St 40-17

Florida didn't play a bad game all season, start to finish. Most teams have a dud here or there, but Florida's worst game was probably the opening win over Miami and after that they got better and better, going 6-0 and looking like a Playoff contender after beating #12 Auburn. The loss to LSU, and two games later, Georgia, would end that talk for good, but the Gators played well in both games and losing only to top 5 teams is no shame (their only shame is playing two FCS opponents!). Florida took out its frustrations on poor Vanderbilt, 56-0, and ended the season very strong despite having not much to gain. That's a good sign for their performance in the bowl game.

 

Virginia's season (9-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

1. @Pittsburgh 30-14
   
2. William & Mary 52-17
   
3. Florida St 31-24
   
4. Old Dominion 28-17
   
5. @#15 Notre Dame 20-35
   
6. @Miami FL 9-17
   
7. Duke 48-14
   
8. @Louisville 21-28
   
9. @North Carolina 38-31
   
10. Georgia Tech 33-28
    
11. Liberty 55-27
    
12. Virginia Tech 39-30
    
13. =#3 Clemson 17-62

Virginia started the year 4-0 with three decent performances and a dud win over Old Dominion at home. They played pretty well in losing at Notre Dame, less so in the Miami loss, but their best performance came against Duke where the offense, aided by turnovers and a kickoff return touchdown, racked up the points and the defense held firm. But the next time out they were the ones giving the ball away and losing to Louisville. But the Cavaliers finished strong, beating three bowl-bound teams to finish 9-3. The Clemson game is best forgotten, if it can be, during bowl prep.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Florida's season: +1 win; Virginia's season: +2 wins
• Florida's momentum: -2 wins; Virginia's momentum: +1 win
• Florida glad to be here? yes; Virginia glad to be here: YES
• Florida time zones from home: 0; Virginia time zones from home: 0
• Florida coaching situation: unchanged; Virginia coaching situation: unchanged

Both teams improved their lot from last season, moreso for Virginia. The Gators were in the Peach Bowl last year, and the Orange Bowl is a decent upgrade among top bowls. Virginia spend last December prepping for the Belk Bowl. No contest there in terms of upgrades.

There is the matter of how the teams ended the season—Florida with 3 strong wins, Virginia with a dismal showing against Clemson. But there are caveats: Florida's last win was a rivalry win over FSU, so they had some motivation there. And the loss to Clemson was probably due more to Clemson than the fault of the Cavaliers. The two games they played before that were pretty sound.

Final analysis

Both teams can pass the ball, but only one team can defend the pass. That's the basic problem for Virginia and it's why the game has a big spread. What do the Cavs need to do to win? They have to play their best game, no question. They can't depend on Florida having an off day, because Florida hasn't had an off game all season. The only way for Virginia to win is to play like they did when they beat Duke 48-14—they need turnovers and big kickoff returns, every break in the book. And even then Florida could still win.

The fact that this game is a clear mismatch to all observers is ironically what gives Virginia a decent chance. Bowl history is replete with big favorites coming in overconfident and flat and losing outright to the underdog. Usually this happens in a smaller bowl when the favorite has narrowly missed out on a big bowl and has zero motivation. The Orange Bowl isn't a lesser destination, and Florida wasn't really in the running for anything better for months, so the pattern isn't there. But it doesn't mean the Gators can't get overconfident. How likely is it, though?

Based on their performance all year, it just doesn't seem that anything can make Florida have a bad game. Following the Georgia loss they had every reason to have a letdown game and be overconfident against Vanderbilt but they won 56-0. And why would they care about the Missouri game after that? Yet they took care of business. Now we're supposed to believe they will get overconfident and flounder in the Orange Bowl? There is no evidence Florida won't do what they've done all season—play a solid game. 

The question of showing up is one for Virginia. They didn't show up against Clemson—understandable, but true. They did better against Notre Dame, a team more on Florida's level—but still lost by 15 points. In fact the best team the Cavs beat all year is North Carolina, #43 in Strength. Given that, and no reason to think Florida will falter, we have no standing to take a stab and pick an upset here. The question is how bad Virginia will lose. We think our power rating has it pretty close, though Virginia might have more luck on offense with CJ Henderson gone from the Florida lineup. It doesn't change our basic outlook.

Prediction:  Florida 38, Virginia 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Music City Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Louisville vs. Mississippi State

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
Time: Monday, December 30 at 4:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Louisville Cardinals (7-5) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6)

Louisville and Mississippi State meet in the middle and play in Nashville.

Vegas line/spread: Mississippi State by 5 (over/under 63)

Movement: The line was steady for a few weeks but edged from 4 to 5 by game day, with the over inching up from 62.5.

Strength power rating:   #40 Mississippi State 37,   #67 Louisville 31    
Adjusted for turnovers: Mississippi State 37-32
Median game rating: Mississippi State 36-33

The Vegas line is Bulldogs by 4, while our power rating says Bulldogs by 6. Or 5 if you 'remove' turnovers. Or 3 if you use median rather than mean. So do the Bulldogs cover? Who knows.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -4 Spread
Louisville	39%	54%
Miss State	61%	46%

Most of our game-comparison 'trials' say the Bulldogs cover, but it's close. And our Strength power rating is usually a few points above the Vegas spread for the favorite anyway.

When Louisville has the ball

Louisville scoring offense: #25	Miss State scoring defense: #49
Louisville total offense: #24	Miss State total defense: #35
Louisville rushing offense: #20	Miss State rushing defense: #41
Louisville passing offense: #64	Miss State passing defense: #92

Louisville ranks #39 in raw scoring but when adjusted for their schedule—apparently they played tough defenses—they correct to have a legit top 25 offense. It's very similar in total yardage—their raw #40 rank converts to #24. The ground game is their specialty, ranking #20 behind Javian Hawkins' 1,420 yards. Mississippi State has an above-average but not great defense. They're fairly sound against the run which is good for them, but Louisville will find yards there as well as in the air, where the Bulldog defense is weak (and they are missing starting CB Cameron Dantzler to NFL prep). But Louisville is missing their own NFL-bound star, offensive tackle Mekhi Becton.

When Miss State has the ball

Miss State scoring offense: #43	Louisville scoring defense: #110
Miss State total offense: #34	Louisville total defense: #107
Miss State rushing offense: #14	Louisville rushing defense: #124
Miss State passing offense: #94	Louisville passing defense: #78

This looks really bad for Louisville. Not just because the Cardinals have the #110 defense, but in particular that they have the #124 rush defense against a team with the #14 ground game. The Bulldogs have Kylin Hill (1,347 yards, 10 TDs) but QB Garrett Shrader (#2 rusher with 587 yards) is suspended. Tommy Stevens (#4 rusher with 310 yards) will start; he's a marginal passer like Shrader. We'll look later at how Louisville fared against good running teams. 

Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Louisville #61    Mississippi State #90

 

Louisville's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

1. #15 Notre Dame 17-35
   
2. Eastern Kentucky 42-0
   
3. =Western Kentucky 38-21
   
4. @Florida St 24-35
   
5. Boston College 41-39
   
6. @Wake Forest 62-59
   
7. #3 Clemson 10-45
   
8. #24 Virginia 28-21
   
9. @Miami FL 27-52
   
10. @North Carolina St 34-20
    
11. Syracuse 56-34
    
12. @Kentucky 13-45

We mentioned that Louisville's raw offensive ranking takes an upward jump when corrected for their schedule, implying they played tough defenses. Well, they played 9 bowl teams and three Committee top 25 teams including Clemson (arguably the #1 defense), so there you go. The Cardinals opening loss to the Irish wasn't bad, and pointed to either a good season for Louisville or a bad one for Notre Dame; the next two wins made it clear the Cardinals were going to be much improved over last year's 2-10. They beat some good teams—Virginia among them—and lost to others, of course, like Clemson, but generally didn't suffer any real upsets. The loss to Kentucky at the end of the season was pretty bad, though. But when you go from 2 wins to 7 you can't be too greedy.

 

Mississippi State's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

1. =Louisiana-Lafayette 38-28
   
2. Southern Miss 38-15
   
3. Kansas St 24-31
   
4. Kentucky 28-13
   
5. @#12 Auburn 23-56
   
6. @Tennessee 10-20
   
7. #1 LSU 13-36
   
8. @Texas A&M 30-49
   
9. @Arkansas 54-24
   
10. #13 Alabama 7-38
    
11. Abilene Christian 45-7
    
12. Mississippi 21-20

Mississippi State began the year very strong, with wins over 10-3 Louisiana and bowl-bound Southern Miss and Kentucky. Between those they lost a close game to a good Kansas State team. But the season veered south over the next four games, as the big losses to Auburn and LSU carried over to games that could have been winnable. They were 3-5 and needed 3 wins for a bowl game. As expected they beat lowly Arkansas and Abilene while losing big to Bama. At 5-6 they needed an Egg Bowl win, and got it courtesy of one of the weirdest penalties ever thrown, one that cost Ole Miss their extra point. This has to be the first time the Bulldogs made a bowl game because an opposing player pretended to take a bulldog-style leak on their turf.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Louisville's season: +5 wins; Miss State's season: -2 wins
• Louisville's momentum: -1 win; Miss State's momentum: +0 wins
• Louisville glad to be here? YES; Miss State glad to be here: yes
• Louisville time zones from home: 1; Miss State time zones from home: 1
• Louisville coaching situation: unchanged; Miss State coaching situation: unchanged

Both teams experienced turnarounds. Louisville's was the turnaround from last year's 2-10 to this year's 7-5. That will make any team happy to go to just about any bowl game. Mississippi State's turnaround was from 3-5 to bowl-eligible 6-6 by winning 3 of their last 4. They might not think this bowl is great but the alternative of staying home for bowl season is worse.

Final analysis

Our power rating says Mississippi State should win, and we've seen very little to convince us otherwise. In fact, Louisville's awful rush defense, coupled with the Bulldogs strong run game, makes us wonder if it won't be worse than advertised for the Cardinals.

Louisville has faced some good rushing teams before: Boston College (#9), Clemson (#16), and Kentucky (#10). The Cardinals actually beat the Eagles, 41-39; our power rating says BC should have scored 36 points. Not too bad. They lost to Clemson 45-10, and should have given up 49, but lost only by 30. Maybe unfair to use Clemson, though. Kentucky is a fair comparison. Our power rating says the Cardinals should lose that game by about 9 points and give up 34 points; they lost 45-13. In each case the Cardinals did worse than their power rating average, so we can probably expect that to happen against Mississippi State, whether it's 2, 5, or 23 points. They averaged 10 points worse in overall play, which will happen when the other team can control field position.

Will Louisville's turnaround-season momentum help? Maybe, but Mississippi State has their own momentum. And most likely, and any high Louisville has is from just reaching a bowl game. After a terrible year like a 2-10 season, getting there is enough. A win would be nice, but that's a lot to ask for when you have an atrocious rush defense.

The problem for Mississippi State is the suspension of starting QB Garrett Shrader. Not because of his mediocre passing; backup Tommy Stevens should do just as well, or just as poorly. Somewhat for his running ability (he's the #2 rusher) but again, the Bulldogs have other options there. No, mostly it's because you don't want to see players fighting in practice before the bowl game. It makes one wonder if the team is unified and motivated. For now we'll dock the Bulldogs a few points for the QB switch and disruption but assume it's an isolated incident.

Prediction:  Mississippi State 39, Louisville 31

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 First Responder Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

First Responder Bowl in Dallas, TX
Time: Monday, December 30 at 12:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (7-5)

It's Western vs. Western out in Dallas, Texas. And we get to find out how Western Michigan plays on a neutral field.

Vegas line/spread: Western Kentucky by 3 1/2 (over/under 55)

Not much movement in the line, but the o/u is well up from 51.5

Strength power rating:   #79 Western Michigan 25,   #75 Western Kentucky 23    
Adjusted for turnovers: Western Kentucky 25-22
Median game rating: Western Michigan 25-21

These aren't the greatest teams but it should make for a close game. Vegas has Western Kentucky by a field goal spread while our Strength Power rating favors Western Michigan by 2. Note that our rankings are for our FBS-games only rating. In our All-Division ratings we use every game, and there the Broncos outrank the Hilltoppers #78 to #86. We'll see why there's a difference when we look at the schedules. Interestingly the Hilltoppers become our favorite if we screen out turnovers.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3.5 Spread
Western Kentucky	48%	46%
Western Michigan	52%	54%

As noted, we favor Western Michigan, but it's very close. Even with a 2 point mean difference between the team, Western Michigan only wins 52% of the game comparison. And against a 3 1/2 point spread, they cover 54% of the time. That means in all 144 game comparisons, only 2%—which would be 3 instances—have Western Kentucky winning by 3.5 or less. Normally when teams rank so close there are many instances of narrow spreads.

When Western Kentucky has the ball

Western Kentucky scoring offense: #98	Western Michigan scoring defense: #78
Western Kentucky total offense: #96	Western Michigan total defense: #103
Western Kentucky rush offense: #119	Western Michigan rush defense: #116
Western Kentucky pass offense: #44	Western Michigan pass defense: #82

The Hilltoppers aren't very good on offense, but they're in luck because the Broncos are bad on defense. In fact in the one area where WKU is decent—passing—Western Michigan is pretty poor. And the teams are equally bad on the ground game, so it's about even there. Hilltopper QB Ty Storey took over for the injured Steve Duncan after 3 games and has 2,209 passing yards and 12 TDs.

When Western Michigan has the ball

Western Michigan scoring offense: #67	Western Kentucky scoring defense: #47
Western Michigan total offense: #59	Western Kentucky total defense: #37
Western Michigan rush offense: #29	Western Kentucky rush defense: #61
Western Michigan pass offense: #80	Western Kentucky pass defense: #38

Western Michigan scores enough to almost rank in the top 25 in scoring—in raw figures. Corrected for their schedule they're only #67, which means Western Kentucky's defense should be able to hang with them. On the ground is where the Broncos would appear to have an advantage, with LeVante Bellamy (1,412 yards) carrying the ball.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Western Kentucky #75    Western Michigan #128

The Hilltoppers aren't good on special teams but the Broncos are abysmal. In placekicking, for instance, they've made just 8 of 15 attempts. This could be important in a close game.

 

Western Kentucky's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to FCS teams (1)

1. Central Arkansas 28-35
   
2. @Florida Int'l 20-14
   
3. =Louisville 21-38
   
4. Alabama-Birmingham 20-13
   
5. @Old Dominion 20-3
   
6. Army 17-8
   
7. UNC-Charlotte 30-14
   
8. @Marshall 23-26
   
9. Florida Atlantic 24-35
   
10. @Arkansas 45-19
    
11. @Southern Miss 28-10
    
12. Middle Tennessee St 31-26

We saw how Western Kentucky ranked ahead of Western Michigan in a power rating consisting of FBS-only games, but when all contests are included, they rank worse? Well, the Hilltoppers' loss to Central Arkansas is the reason. It's by far their worst game and brings their rating down quite a bit, enough for them to become the underdog. As it was the first game of the season, can it be discounted? Maybe so, especially considering the steady improvement the Hilltoppers seem to show.

Right after that bad loss, the Hilltoppers won 5 of 6, losing only to Louisville and beating bowl-bound FIU,  UAB, and Charlotte. Close losses to Marshall and Florida Atlantic followed but then they had two great games, beating Arkansas 45-19 and Southern Miss 28-10. The Hilltoppers finished on a 3-game win streak. It's probably fair to say the first game was a weird fluke, as it's such an outlier.

 

Western Michigan's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (2)

1. Monmouth NJ 48-13
   
2. @Michigan St 17-51
   
3. Georgia St 57-10
   
4. @Syracuse 33-52
   
5. Central Michigan 31-15
   
6. @Toledo 24-31
   
7. Miami OH 38-16
   
8. @Eastern Michigan 27-34
   
9. Bowling Green 49-10
   
10. Ball St 35-31
    
11. @Ohio U. 37-34 OT
    
12. @Northern Illinois 14-17

Remember how we noted in the game-comparison section that there weren't any narrow wins? That WKU either won big or lost big against Western Mich, with few games where the Hilltoppers beat the Broncos by just a few points? This chart says it all. Western Michigan either wins big or loses big. Their wins are good performances, their losses are terrible ones. They're a rare team where that's the case; normally a team has a loss or two that are superior to many of their wins. But not the Broncos. It got less extreme as the season went on—the losses looked better, the wins looked less impressive, but the Broncos are the ultimate team where you don't know what you're going to get. As such, we assume they will either win by a lot or loss by a lot to Western Kentucky.

We have to look at this chart a little more, as it's the weirdest one I've seen. Ultimately, it looks like home field is good to Western Michigan and road play is their kryptonite. They play 27 points better at home than on the road. So what is their true strength? Are they a great home team, or a bad road team? Because that's the only way we can determine how they should do on a neutral field.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Western Kentucky's season: +5 wins; Western Michigan's season: +0 wins
• Western Kentucky's momentum: +0 wins; Western Michigan's momentum: +1 win
• Western Kentucky glad to be here? YES; Western Michigan glad to be here: probably not?
• Western Kentucky time zones from home: 0; Western Michigan time zones from home: 1
• Western Kentucky coaching situation: unchanged; Western Michigan coaching situation: unchanged

Western Kentucky had a turnaround season of epic proportions, going from 3-9 to 8-4. That will make you glad to be at just about any bowl. Western Michigan finished 7-5 like last year and lost their last game, where a win would have put them in the MAC title game. So they're not in a good mood according to coach Tim Lester. The last time Western Michigan went to Dallas for a bowl game, three years ago, it was the Cotton Bowl and they were 13-0.

And below we'll cover Western Michigan's home vs. road play and what a neutral field might mean.

Final analysis

Out power rating picks different winners depending on whether we count FCS game in the mix. We noted that it's probably more accurate to represent Western Kentucky without their first loss. Doing so turns a narrow loss into a narrower win. We also noted how on special teams, the Broncos' kicking game is so bad it could be a factor in a close game. So case, closed, the Hilltoppers win a close game, right?

Not so fast. We also saw how Western Michigan doesn't lose close games. Or rather, they don't play an 'average' game, they either play a terrible game and lose, or a great game and win. There is no in-between for them. Which version of Western Michigan shows up will determine the outcome of the game, or so it seems. But their game play corresponds to home vs. road play, and this game in on a neutral field. Maybe Western Michigan will finally play at their (mean) average level.

After some consideration, it seems that the Broncos are probably outperforming at home. There's more variation in their performance, while their road play is fairly static. We're going to assume their neutral field team plays like their road team, an assumption that pretty much concedes that our prediction will favor the Hilltoppers. WKU will be a lot more motivated by their turnaround season than the Broncos are after losing their shot at the MAC title game.

Prediction:  Western Kentucky 31, Western Michigan 17

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Fiesta Bowl (College Football Playoff) Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ
Time: Saturday, December 28 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-0) vs. #3 Clemson Tigers (13-0)

It doesn't get better than this: Undefeated and seemingly invincible Ohio State takes on undefeated defending national champion Clemson for the right to advance to the title game.

Vegas line/spread: Clemson by 2 1/2 (over/under 62.5)

Moves: Despite my disbelief, the line is actually up from 2 to 2 1/2 in the last week, the o/u dipping from 63.5. The line pretty much stayed in the 2 to 2.5 range, with the o/u settling in at 62.5 by game day.

Strength power rating:   #1 Ohio State 38,   #3 Clemson 27    
Adjusted for turnovers: Ohio State 38-27
Median game rating: Ohio State 43-25

According to some of our power ratings these are the two best teams in the nation (in our All-Division power rating, Clemson is #2; they are #3 counting just FBS games). In other words, this deserves to be the national championship game. I am very surprised Clemson is favored here; maybe I will change my mind by the end of the page! Our power rating says that the Buckeyes should not only be favored, but pretty heavily. We have the Buckeyes by 11, and if using median rather than mean game ratings, by 18.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. +2 Spread
Ohio State	74%	80%
Clemson	26%	20%

Since the Strength power rating (heavily) favors Ohio State, the game ratings on which it is based do also. We take each game the teams have played and compare the performances with all the other team's performances. Since each team played 13 games, this yields 169 (13 x 13) projected game results, all based on real results. We find that Ohio State wins nearly 3 of 4 comparisons, and 5 in 6 against a 2 point spread.

When Ohio State has the ball

Ohio State scoring offense: #1	Clemson scoring defense: #1
Ohio State total offense: #2	Clemson total defense: #1
Ohio State rushing offense: #2	Clemson rushing defense: #14
Ohio State passing offense: #24	Clemson passing defense: #2

This could be the best offense in the country vs. the best defense in the country. The teams have the top scoring offense and defense in the nation when only FBS games are counted (otherwise Clemson drops to the #2 defense and Ohio State is #1 there too). In total offense it's #2 vs. #1. In any case, Ohio State's offense and Clemson's defense are arguably the best in the nation.

The Buckeyes running game ranks #2 behind JK Robbins; 1,829 yards and 20 TDs. Dual threat QB Justin Fields helps out there, too, and leads a top 25 passing attack with 2,953 yards and an unreal 40:1 TD:int ratio. Chris Olave (799 yards) is his top target yardage-wise while KJ Hill has the most receptions (51). The only concern here is obviously Fields' injured knee, which he recently said was "80-85%" and that he can't move like he wants to, just a few days before the  game.

The Clemson defense has been unyielding all season. They're #2 against the pass in adjusted per-play yardage; the rush defense isn't quite rated that high and their big challenge will be to slow down the OSU ground game. Certainly the Tiger D will take it as a challenge.

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson scoring offense: #5	Ohio State scoring defense: #2
Clemson total offense: #7	Ohio State total defense: #2
Clemson rushing offense: #16	Ohio State rushing defense: #10
Clemson passing offense: #20	Ohio State passing defense: #1

Clemson has one of the top offenses in the country by any measure, but so, too does Ohio State have a top defense—maybe the top defense: if we include FCS games in our measure, Ohio State moves to the top of the list as Clemson's D slips to #2. But that's not important, since defenses don't play each other; the Buckeye D has to face the Clemson offense.

And it's quite a challenge. Both in rushing and passing, Clemson ranks in the top 20 in adjusted per-game yardage. Travis Etienne has 1,500 yards on the ground and Lyn-J Dixon and QB Trevor Lawrence combine for another 1,000+. Through the air, Lawrence accounts for 3,172 yards and 34 TDs and 8 interceptions, and his ratio over the last 10 games is 29:3. Tee Higgins (1,082 yards) is the long-ball receiver while Justyn Ross (55 rec) is the top target.

The Buckeye defense rates well both against the run (#10) and against the pass, where their adjusted per-attempt yardage yielded ranks #1 in the country (we cite per-play stats here because they're more meaningful in terms of the passing game). The Buckeyes boast DE Chase Young, to some the top player in the nation. Young has a nation-leading 16.5 sacks in 11 games this year.

Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Ohio State #62    Clemson #120

As great as these teams are, they don't excel on special teams. Ohio State is just average, while the Tigers are pretty deplorable. Clemson kickers are just 13 of 21 on field goals.

 

Ohio State's season (13-0)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (5)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)

1. Florida Atlantic 45-21
   
2. #21 Cincinnati 42-0
   
3. @Indiana 51-10
   
4. Miami OH 76-5
   
5. @Nebraska 48-7
   
6. Michigan St 34-10
   
7. @Northwestern 52-3
   
8. #8 Wisconsin 38-7
   
9. Maryland 73-14
   
10. @Rutgers 56-21
    
11. #10 Penn State 28-17
    
12. @#14 Michigan 56-27
    
13. =#8 Wisconsin 34-21

Ohio State has a chart unlike any college football team in history. Eight of their 13 games are off-the-charts or nearly so. Their weakest games were a 45-21 win over 10-3 FAU, a 34-10 win vs. Michigan State, and a 56-21 win at Rutgers. Those are pretty dominant "weak" games. Even their supposedly weak Wisconsin win in the Big Ten championship would be the envy of most teams, and it was their 9th best performance.

And these performances weren't beatdowns of terrible teams; the Buckeyes beat 9 bowl opponents, and have 5 wins over Committee top 25 teams, the most of any team in the nation, even more than LSU. Seven of their best performances came in the first 9 games, making their last four outings look weaker by comparison. Are the Buckeyes slipping, just a bit? If so it's on defense, as their offensive ratings have stayed high. And their only "bad" defensive game was giving up 21 to Rutgers, where motivation was probably pretty low after building a 49-7 lead. Still, something to consider, but we should also consider that the Buckeye defense shut out Wisconsin in the 2nd half of their game; that's what they can do when they're motivated.

 

Clemson's season (13-0)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (8)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)

1. Georgia Tech 52-14
   
2. Texas A&M 24-10
   
3. @Syracuse 41-6
   
4. UNC-Charlotte 52-10
   
5. @North Carolina 21-20
   
6. Florida St 45-14
   
7. @Louisville 45-10
   
8. Boston College 59-7
   
9. Wofford 59-14
   
10. @North Carolina St 55-10
    
11. Wake Forest 52-3
    
12. @South Carolina 38-3
    
13. =#24 Virginia 62-17

Clemson beat almost as many bowl-eligible opponents as Ohio State, but they only beat one Playoff Committee top 25 team—#24 Virginia, in the ACC championship game. Clemson's worst game was of course at North Carolina, where they were lucky to avoid a loss that might have put them out of the playoff. Since then they've gotten better, and there seems to be an upward curve to their game play, culminating in their best game yet vs. Virginia. Mainly it's on offense, where they've played a lot better in the last six games.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Ohio State's season: +1 win; Clemson's season: +0 win
• Ohio State's momentum: +0 wins; Clemson's momentum: +0 wins
• Ohio State glad to be here? YES; Clemson glad to be here: YES
• Ohio State time zones from home: 1; Clemson time zones from home: 2
• Ohio State coaching situation: unchanged; Clemson coaching situation: unchanged

For Clemson, another year, another undefeated season. Is it possible that a team gets tired of winning? Probably not, but defending national champions tend to lack a bit of hunger compared to their foes. And Ohio State has extra incentive to win this game: revenge. Clemson humiliated Ohio State, 31-0, the last time they met in the playoff in 2016.

We usually only cover coaching when a coach has left or been fired, but we should consider experience here. Dabo Swinney has been to the last 4 playoff cycles and is, by now, an old pro at coaching big games. Ohio State's Ryan Day, on the other hand, is green; this is his first full year as head coach anywhere. That's a big difference.

Final analysis

To me this is the national title game. The only team that might have a chance against the winner is an LSU team playing at home (which is what the winner will probably face).

    The case for Ohio State

We need to talk about Clemson's schedule. Points-based power ratings are schedule-independent; you can just beat your lesser opponents by more points, and it should all even out. That's what Clemson did, and that's why they are still highly-rated by power ratings even though any top 10 team could have gone undefeated with their slate, and maybe some plain top 25 teams, too, with a little luck. The Tigers didn't face anyone ranked higher than #24.

So what does that mean? There's the idea that a weak schedule makes a team soft and unprepared to face a much better foe. They don't know what they're in for when they face the real deal. In Clemson's case that is not going to happen; most of this team played Notre Dame and Alabama in last year's playoff.

But the real question is, will they be able to play as well as they have this season against weak foes? Let's look at their offense and defense, and the best defense and offense those units have faced. We'll do the same for Ohio State.

Clemson's defense faced only one top 25 offense: Louisville (#25). They held the Cardinals to 10 points; #28 offense Virginia scored 17 points. Ohio State defense held Wisconsin (#10 offense) to 7 points and 21 points in two meeting; #15 Michigan to 27; and #18 Penn State to 17. Though the Tigers haven't faced any top offenses, their performance against good offenses has been solid.

On offense, Clemson might have a problem with Ohio State's D. They only scored 24 at home against Texas A&M (#25 defense), 38 vs South Carolina (#39 defense), and 21 against #48 North Carolina. Those aren't great showings, and those defenses are nothing like Ohio State's. Meanwhile the Buckeyes put up 38 and 34 against #5 defense Wisconsin, 28 on #7 Penn State, and 56 at #12 Michigan. If Clemson needs even a couple of series to adjust to facing what is by far the best defense they've faced, it could be costly.

Another interesting area is special teams. Ohio State isn't great there but they have a decent kicker. Meanwhile Clemson kickers are just 13 of 21 on field goals, something that could make a difference in a close game.

We think Ohio State will be the more motivated team. Ohio State wants revenge for the 31-0 beatdown at Clemson's hands four years ago. And as defending national champs Clemson won't be quite as hungry as the Buckeyes.

    The case for Clemson

There are some metrics and ideas that point to a Clemson win. One is coaching. How will Ohio State's Ryan Day handle the pressure of the College Football Playoff? This is his first year as head coach. Anywhere! He's coached big games this year but none this big. Meanwhile Dabo Swinney has coached the last four playoffs, three national championship games, and two national championship wins. This is an 'intangible' that really means something.

We pointed out Clemson's lack of production against even borderline top 25 defenses. But has Clemson's offense improved in the 2nd half of the season? Very likely so. For one thing, Trevor Lawrence has stopped throwing interceptions; he has just 3 in the last 10 games, and none in the last six games, the same stretch where Clemson's offense raised to a higher level. If we compare Clemson and Ohio State using just the last six games, Ohio State is still ahead, but only by 1 point. Use the last 4 games, where Ohio State has looked a bit weaker, and Clemson wins by 7. Of course, taking an arbitrary number of games can give you almost any result: a 2-game sample is an Ohio State win again. But using half the season can be telling if it gives a big difference between that and the full season. The bottom line is that in more recent games, Clemson has improved while Ohio State has slipped a bit.

And if Justin Fields' knee isn't 100% before the game, then clearly that is a problem for Ohio State, when facing a Clemson defense.

    Conclusion

The basic matchup is pretty close and hard to tell what will happen. You have two great offenses and against great defenses, and both teams can run and pass the ball and have obliterated their opponents. Anything can happen, and of course either team can win. Our power rating favors Ohio State, and Vegas favors the Tigers. To get other insights, you have to go "off-road."

Only a few real arguments favor Clemson. Coaching, and recent play favoring the Tigers. In the latter case, a sufficiently large sample just makes the outcome close, but still has Ohio State on top. In the former, it's hard to quantify coaching's effect; it seems it would more likely come into play in a very close game, or for motivating the team. 

And as we've said, we think Ohio State will be more motivated. Look at what happened when they were motivated against Michigan. There's really no way Swinney can make Clemson more motivated than Ohio State (or LSU or Oklahoma, for that matter).

A possible concern for Ohio State is Justin Fields' injured knee, but he did well enough against Wisconsin's great D in the 2nd half. It's a potential limiting factor on Ohio State's scoring, not a complete game-changer—unless he re-injures it during the game.

Also in Ohio State's favor, Clemson's underperformance on offense against borderline top 25 defenses is real. It's impossible to say how they will handle Ohio State's defense but logic suggests they will do worse than they did against the just-good defenses they faced. They've improved on offense as the year went on but this team, this year, has yet to be tested against a truly good defense.

The kicking game also favors the Buckeyes too if things are close.

The oddsmakers are really good and you should always take note of the lines they set. But that's the standard you're picking against. If our power rating came out with Clemson as an 11-point favorite, we would question it because of Clemson's weak schedule; a blind spot in points-based power ratings is when strong teams run up the score against weak one. But Ohio State's schedule is solid; Clemson is the one with the weak schedule, so if anything their rating is inflated.

So we're sticking with our power rating over Vegas, and after all that analysis just using its 38-27 score estimate, but backing off a little bit due to uncertainty about Justin Field's mobility. Can't wait to see what happens.

Prediction:  Ohio State 34, Clemson 27

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Redbox Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: California vs. Illinois

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Redbox Bowl in Santa Clara, CA
Time: Monday, December 30 at 4:00 pm ET
TV: FOX

California Golden Bears (7-5) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6)

The Cal Bears basically host Illinois in the Redbox Bowl.

Vegas line/spread: California by 6 1/2 (over/under 44.5)

Movements: Not much; the line started around 7 and dipped to 6.5 by game day, while the over/under is up from 43.

Strength power rating:   #45 California 24,   #55 Illinois 19    
Adjusted for turnovers: California 23-15
Median game rating: California 21-19

We gave Cal partial home field advantage and maybe we should give the full allotment. They're playing 50 miles from home while Illinois is traveling across two time zones and over 2,000 miles to get to Santa Clara. Full HFA would make Cal a 6 point favorite, close to the 7 point Vegas spread. 

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
California	58%	47%
Illinois	42%	53%

Cal wins most the comparisons, but falls short of a majority of covers against the spread.

When California has the ball

California scoring offense: #95	Illinois scoring defense: #66
California total offense: #114	Illinois total defense: #86
California rushing offense: #87	Illinois rushing defense: #78
California passing offense: #110	Illinois passing defense: #80

Cal's offense isn't winning them many games, and might not win them this one. But there's hope since Illinois doesn't have a great defense. The Illini look up to the task of stopping Cal from scoring for the most part, but the Bears will probably get a decent amount of yardage. The key is to avoid turnovers, which is Illinois' forte: forcing fumbles and getting interceptions. #2 WR Jordan Duncan is out, but Cal spreads things out a lot (9 players had 100+ receiving yards).

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois scoring offense: #54	California scoring defense: #16
Illinois total offense: #102	California total defense: #45
Illinois rushing offense: #56	California rushing defense: #29
Illinois passing offense: #108	California passing defense: #34

Illinois is one of "those" teams, the ones with a big discrepancy between their scoring offense rating and total offense (yardage) ranking. How can the #102 team in yardage be the #54 scoring offense? One way is avoiding turnovers. The Illini are pretty good at that but they're really good at causing turnovers on defense—which often leads to great starting field position and points without a lot of yards (or no offensive yards if its a pick six). Cal's defense is pretty solid, so if they avoid turnovers on offense they should keep things under control. Illinois QB Brandon Peters and top WR Josh Imatorbhebhe are both among a slew of Illini listed as questionable, which normally means they will play; if both don't, the passing offense goes even more limp.

Cal announced recently that two defensive starters won't play in the bowl game: safeties Ashtyn Davis and LB Tevin Paul, as well as Davis' backup Trey Turner.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): California #99    Illinois #15

Special teams can also be a reason a low-yardage team scores a lot of points, and Illinois ranks high on special teams. Their kicker, James McCourt, is 4 of 5 from 50 yards+. Not getting inside the 35 but still getting points follows the few-yards-per-point formula. Their punter, Blake Hayes, is #18 in the nation with a 44.8 average, which helps Illinois play the field position game, another path toward easier points.

 

California's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

1. UC-Davis 27-13
   
2. @Washington 20-19
   
3. North Texas 23-17
   
4. @Mississippi 28-20
   
5. Arizona St 17-24
   
6. @#6 Oregon 7-17
   
7. Oregon St 17-21
   
8. @#11 Utah 0-35
   
9. Washington St 33-20
   
10. #22 Southern Cal 17-41
    
11. @Stanford 24-20
    
12. @UCLA 28-18

By beating Washington and Mississippi on the road, California looked like a Pac-12 contender after four games. After another four games they looked like they might not make a bowl game. They played a great game at #6 Oregon and losing to #11 Utah in Salt Lake City is no embarrassment, but they shouldn't have lost to both ASU and Oregon State at home. They responded with a solid win over Washington State but lost bad to USC at home. The Bears secured a bowl spot by beating Stanford and knocked off UCLA, too, both on the road. We're giving them home field advantage in the bowl but I'm not sure the Bears wouldn't be better off playing away from home.

Illinois's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (6) to losing teams (2)

1. Akron 42-3
   
2. @Connecticut 31-23
   
3. Eastern Michigan 31-34
   
4. Nebraska 38-42
   
5. @#18 Minnesota 17-40
   
6. #14 Michigan 25-42
   
7. #8 Wisconsin 24-23
   
8. @Purdue 24-6
   
9. Rutgers 38-10
   
10. @Michigan St 37-34
    
11. @#16 Iowa 10-19
    
12. Northwestern 10-29

Illinois beat Akron 42-3 but then again, Akron finished 0-12. They beat 2-10 UConn by just 8 points, which is worse, and the Eastern Michigan home loss was just as bad. The Illini played a bit better over the next 3 against Nebraska, #18 Minnesota, and #14 Michigan, but lost them all. Then came one of two great moments in Illinois' season: the 24-23 upset of Wisconsin. At the time the Badgers were a definite Playoff contender, and Illinois spoiled those hopes for sure.

The turning point might have been during the Michigan game when, down 28-0, they came back to within 28-25. It was a foreshadowing of things to come. After Wisconsin they solidly beat Purdue and Rutgers before going to Michigan State, which set up Great Moment #2: The Comeback. Down 31-10, the Illini made a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Spartans 37-34. It turned out to be their last hurrah though. Maybe they were exhausted from two exceptionally emotional wins within a month. They still played well at Iowa but never led, and then they collapsed against a dismal 3-9 Wildcat team, their worst effort of the season.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• California's season: +0 wins; Illinois's season: +2* wins
• California's momentum: -1 win; Illinois's momentum: +2 wins
• California glad to be here? yes; Illinois glad to be here: YES
• California time zones from home: 0; Illinois time zones from home: 2
• California coaching situation: unchanged; Illinois coaching situation: unchanged

Illinois has to be happier about their season relative to last year when they were 4-8 and didn't go bowling. Cal had the same record and went 3-3 at home, 4-2 on the road. It's hard to rate any momentum; Illinois went 2-4 then 4-2, but finished with 2 losses while Cal won 3 of 4 at the end.

Both teams took a rollercoaster approach to the season. Cal had four wins, then four losses, then finished strong. Illinois played poorly going 2-4, then won 4 in a row with two crazy games in the mix, but their last game was a dud. Cal certainly gets the edge for finishing strong but does it matter given the time off before the 30th?

We can assume both teams like this placement; Cal for the short trip from campus, and Illinois for going to a bowl at all after a 4-season drought.

Final analysis

The key for Cal is to avoid turnovers. Hold onto the ball and Illinois has to go long distances for points instead of getting good field position. Cal has the defense to beat Illinois but maybe not the offense, so they can't afford to be giving the ball away. Illinois lives off turnovers. They got 3 in the win over Wisconsin and 4 in the big comeback against Michigan State. But they only had 1 in each of their worst losses, to Eastern Michigan and Northwestern.

Illinois played poorly at the beginning of the season and turned into a very good team. But they laid an egg at the end against Northwestern, their worst game of the season. Some of it was sheer exhaustion; the Illini also had a lot of players out including their starting quarterback. Time to heal, and rest emotionally, should avoid another fiasco like the Northwestern game. 

We think Illinois will have time to recover and look back at a season that will be remembered more than just about any other 6-6 season you will find. The Wisconsin win and the Michigan State comeback are football memories that leave a legacy. After no bowl for four years, they'll be ready to play. Cal might underestimate them as just another 6-6 Big Ten team, and feel overconfident playing at home (practically). Cal is missing a few key defensive starters which could keep the game tight, and if it comes down to a long field goal, Illinois could pull off the upset.

But we still pick the Bears. We're giving Illinois every chance here, taking away Cal's home field advantage because they don't seem to have one, pretending that Illinois' loss to Northwestern didn't happen, and basically assuming Illinois' turnover dominance will continue, and still Cal edges them by the numbers. Illinois might not get the win but they should give Cal a run for their money. 

Prediction:  California 21, Illinois 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Peach Bowl (College Football Playoff) Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #1 LSU vs. #4 Oklahoma

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Peach Bowl in Atlanta, GA
Time: Saturday, December 28 at 4:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#1 LSU Tigers (13-0) vs. #4 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1)

Here it is: the first of two College Football Playoff semifinals, LSU vs. Oklahoma. Enough said.

Vegas line/spread: LSU by 14 (over/under 76)

The line opened at 11 1/2 or so, and moved up to 13. It stayed there for over a week while the o/u dipped a half point but recovered. By game day the spread was up to 14.

Strength power rating:   #2  LSU 44,   #7  Oklahoma 36    
Adjusted for turnovers: LSU 42-38
Median game rating: LSU 42-34

Wow, that's a huge line for Vegas to have on a playoff game but it goes to show you how good LSU is—and how vulnerable Oklahoma really is. We have them as the 7th best team in true Strength, with LSU at #2 in our power rating. Normally we have a wider spread than Vegas, but ours is just 8 points. We'll look at other details to see what the oddsmakers are thinking (though I believe the betting public has already moved it a few points). 

Take away the often random turnover effect and the game gets tighter: LSU by 4. By median ratings it's still about 8 points.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -13 Spread
LSU	67%	36%
Oklahoma	33%	64%

As expected LSU is the straight-up winner 2/3 of the time, but against a 13 point spread the Tigers cover only 1/3 of the time themselves.

When LSU has the ball

LSU scoring offense: #2	Oklahoma scoring defense: #26
LSU total offense: #1	Oklahoma total defense: #9
LSU rushing offense: #37	Oklahoma rushing defense: #46
LSU passing offense: #2	Oklahoma passing defense: #12

LSU's offense is pretty incredible, ranking #2 in adjusted scoring and #1 in adjusted total yardage. They are pitted against Oklahoma's sometimes questionable defense, but the Sooner defense is only questionable in that it isn't clearly inside the top 25; it's not "bad" in any real sense. They rank in the top ten in total defense, but they allow more points than you'd expect from the yardage; this is because they rank an abysmal #126 in red zone defense. That could be a big factor in the game, especially since LSU ranks #1 in red zone offense. And right here we have already identified a big reason for the wide Vegas spread.

LSU lives by the pass (#2 in the nation), and is decent on the ground, too. Oklahoma's pass defense is solid on a per-play basis but just outside the top ten. And their rush defense isn't terrible but isn't great either. LSU will have to work for their yardage but they will get it, and when they get in the red zone they will very likely score, maybe every time.

Joe Burrow rightly won the Heisman for his 2019 season: 4,715 yards, 48 TDs vs. 6 interceptions. Both Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson had well over 1,000 receiving yards and 18 and 14 TD catches respectively. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 1,290 yards and 16 TDs—he's a big part of why their red zone offense is so good. He's questionable with a hamstring injury, normally meaning he would play but not be 100%. In this situation, the coaches may hold him out planning ahead for the next game. Tyrion Davis-Price (270) is next in line; he averages 5.1 ypc to Edwards-Helaire's 6.5.

Oklahoma's hope on defense may rest with the pass rush; they have 35 sacks and Burrow has been sacked 28 times. The Sooners might need to take a gamble and blitz often if they want to slow down the Tiger offense. Unfortunately sacks leader Ronnie Perkins (6) is suspended for the game. And starting safety Delarrin Turner-Yell is out injured.

When Oklahoma has the ball

Oklahoma scoring offense: #4	LSU scoring defense: #17
Oklahoma total offense: #3	LSU total defense: #16
Oklahoma rushing offense: #5	LSU rushing defense: #17
Oklahoma passing offense: #19	LSU passing defense: #14

Like the other matchup, the offense has the advantage here, which is why the over/under is so high. But it's not quite as pronounced here. Oklahoma's offense is top 5 in scoring and total offense, with a top 5 ground game, but LSU is in the top 20 on defense across the board. And when it comes to the red zone, LSU's #16 red zone defense can put up a fight against Oklahoma's #14 red zone offense.

Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts is the team's offensive machine. With 3,634 passing yards (32:7 TD:int) and 1,255 rushing yards, he does it all and makes the Sooner offense nearly impossible to figure out. RB Kennedy Brooks adds 976 yards to the Sooners' #5 ground game, but like LSU's top back, he too is questionable. CeeDee Lamb is Hurts' favorite target and one of the best receivers in college football; he has 1,208 yards and 14 TDs.

LSU's defense is sound but no one can stifle the Sooners; one can hope slow them down, though, and big plays would help. The Tigers have 16 interceptions on the year, including 6 by Derek Stingley, Jr.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): LSU #82    Oklahoma #79

This might be the only area where these teams are pretty awful. It would be a shame if a close game came down to a special teams flub by one side or the other, but stranger things have happened.

 

LSU's season (13-0)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (4)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)

1. Georgia Southern 55-3
   
2. @Texas 45-38
   
3. Northwestern St 65-14
   
4. @Vanderbilt 66-38
   
5. Utah St 42- 6
   
6. #9 Florida 42-28
   
7. @Mississippi St 36-13
   
8. #12 Auburn 23-20
   
9. @#13 Alabama 46-41
   
10. @Mississippi 58-37
    
11. Arkansas 56-20
    
12. Texas A&M 50-7
    
13. @#5 Georgia 37-10

LSU never had a bad game on offense. They had a few on defense: game #4, giving up 38 at Vanderbilt, and game #10, giving up 37 at Mississippi. The rest of the games were at least decent and sometimes great, like games 1, 5, 7, and 8. And then there were the amazing last two games, but we'll get to that.

When we say they never played a bad game on offense, we really mean they rarely played a less-than-awesome offensive game. At least 7 games were off-the-charts great, like games 1, 4, 6, 9, and 10. And of course the final two games. We're getting there...

In all, LSU beat 9 bowl teams and four top 25 teams. The first three wins were close: #9 Florida by 14, #12 Auburn by 3, #13 Alabama by 5. The other one is part of their final two games. Here we go:

First, 50-7 over Texas A&M. We can see how amazing this win is by comparing it to the Aggies 4 other losses, to #3 Clemson, #5 Georgia, #12 Auburn, and #13 Alabama. They lost those games by 14, 6, 8, and 19 points. LSU beat them by 43 points. LSU scored more on them than any of those four ranked teams, and held them to fewer points than any of the four did.

Almost the equal of that was the 37-10 beatdown of #5 Georgia, which needs no explanation. These two games were LSU playing 20 points better than they did on average for the season—which of course, includes those games in the calculation. Put another way, they played 24 points better than they had over the first 11 games.

 

Oklahoma's season (12-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

1. Houston 49-31
   
2. South Dakota 70-14
   
3. @UCLA 48-14
   
4. Texas Tech 55-16
   
5. @Kansas 45-20
   
6. =Texas 34-27
   
7. West Virginia 52-14
   
8. @Kansas St 41-48
   
9. Iowa St 42-41
   
10. @#7 Baylor 34-31
    
11. TCU 28-24
    
12. @#25 Oklahoma St 34-16
    
13. =#7 Baylor 30-23 OT

Oklahoma played a very easy schedule through half of their season, but they dominated it as expected. Defensively they looked a bit vulnerable in the Houston opener (31 points) but otherwise did well enough. Against Kansas State, though, Oklahoma fell behind big and couldn't quite make a miracle comeback; the defense had dug them too big a hole. The bad defensive performance carried over to the Iowa State game, where Oklahoma escaped with a 42-41 win.

Then came the first Baylor game, the infamous 28-3 deficit, and this time the miracle comeback that did happen. The Sooners won the rest of their games, faced Baylor again, and came away with another skin-of-their-teeth victory, this time in overtime. Overall it sure looks like the Sooners took a small step down once they started playing good teams.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• LSU's season: +4 wins; Oklahoma's season: +0 wins
• LSU's momentum: +0 wins; Oklahoma's momentum: -1 win
• LSU glad to be here? YES; Oklahoma glad to be here: YES
• LSU time zones from home: 0; Oklahoma time zones from home: 1
• LSU coaching situation: unchanged; Oklahoma coaching situation: unchanged

At this level, there's no need for discussion of motivation in regular terms, or whether the teams are glad to be here; it's the playoffs. It's possible for a team to come out too tight or too loose, but that's really hard to predict at all. We can say that LSU seems to be playing with 100% confidence, while Oklahoma has to have a little bit of doubt as they are the only playoff team with a loss, and needed two very close wins over Baylor to get here.

Final analysis

It's clear that the offenses are better than the defenses in this game. But LSU is better on defense than Oklahoma, and they even have the better offense. That's enough reason to make them a touchdown favorite. It gets worse for Oklahoma when you compare LSU's red zone offense—#1—to Oklahoma's #126 red zone defense. That's a death blow for the Sooners. It's hard to imagine them winning this game just from that stat alone. 

The only team to beat Oklahoma so far? Kansas State, owner of the #2 red zone offense. Iowa State (#9 RZ) scored 41 on the Sooners. They did hold #6 RZ TCU to 24 and #10 Texas to 27, but both still scored more than the median Oklahoma allowed.

Meanwhile, LSU has a solid #16 red zone defense to match Oklahoma's #14 red zone offense. That's parity; the other is a mismatch. And it really comes into play if the game is close and goes into overtime, where every possession basically starts in the red zone (note that when Oklahoma beat Baylor in overtime, the Bears didn't advance past the 25 yard line, so they were never in the technical red zone!)

Not only that, but LSU seems to be getting better while Oklahoma declines a bit. The Sooners' last 6 games rank almost 6 points lower than their full season rating. Meanwhile LSU's last two games are off the charts as both the offense and defense played like the best units in the country, 20 points above the average used to compute the Strength power ratings' 8 point margin.

Worse, Oklahoma has lost a key player on both offense and defense to suspension; sacks leader Ronnie Perkins and #3 rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (515 yards) are out. As is starting safety Delarrin Turner-Yell, lost to injury.

We started out looking to justify our power rating's smaller spread vs. Vegas, and by the end, everything is pointing to an LSU rout. That's not without precedent as the Playoff games are surprisingly full of huge blowouts, with 5 of the 15 games decided by 27 or more points. We've dropped our LSU estimate a bit for the fact that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is probably not 100%, but we still predict quite a rout, reminiscent of the infamous 2004 national title game.

Prediction:  LSU 55, Oklahoma 23

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Camping World Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Camping World Bowl in Orlando, FL
Time: Saturday, December 28 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ABC

#15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (7-5)

Seriously? A 10-2 Notre Dame team ranked in the top 25 is going to the "Camping World" bowl to play a 7-5 Iowa State? That has got to piss off fans of the Irish.

Vegas line/spread: Notre Dame by 3 1/2 (over/under 54)

The line edged up from 3 1/2 to 4, but settled back down by game day. The o/u dropped by a point.

Strength power rating:   #15 Notre Dame 30,   #16 Iowa State 26    
Adjusted for turnovers: Iowa State 26-25
Median game rating: Notre Dame 31-27

Vegas favors the Irish, and so does our Strength power rating. Though Notre Dame only ranks one spot ahead of Iowa State in our FBS-only Strength rankings, we use all games to determine the projected score; Iowa State played by far their worst game against FCS Northern Iowa, and that drops their rating. Using FBS games only, it's Notre Dame by less than a half point—call it an overtime win.

Notre Dame recovers an unusually high number of fumbles, and that proves to mostly be luck. Subtract that and assume normal turnover results and the Irish are a 1-point dog. Median results are similar to the average result, a 4-point Notre Dame win.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3.5 Spread
Notre Dame	60%	52%
Iowa State	40%	48%

The effect of that one terrible game by Iowa State gives the Irish 12 certain wins out of the 144 cross-comparisons, which is quite a chunk, resulting in a 60/40 win ratio for Notre Dame. They still edge out a majority against the early spread.

When Notre Dame has the ball

Notre Dame scoring offense: #21	Iowa State scoring defense: #23
Notre Dame total offense: #43	Iowa State total defense: #22
Notre Dame rushing offense: #52	Iowa State rushing defense: #16
Notre Dame passing offense: #42	Iowa State passing defense: #26

How's that for a matchup? In any case, Notre Dame has a top 25 offense, countered by Iowa State's top 25 defense. The Irish don't look nearly as good when yardage totals are used—but their #12 red zone offense insures that they turn yards into scoring at a better clip than most teams. QB Ian Book has done a serviceable job at the helm, passing for 2,787 yards and 33 TDs with just 6 interceptions, while gaining 516 net yards to be ND's #2 rusher as well. Iowa State's defense looks up to the task of slowing down the Irish across the board—but their red zone defense ranks #103, so if they let Notre Dame get close they'll give up points.

When Iowa State has the ball

Iowa State scoring offense: #13	Notre Dame scoring defense: #14
Iowa State total offense: #13	Notre Dame total defense: #18
Iowa State rushing offense: #86	Notre Dame rushing defense: #47
Iowa State passing offense: #6	Notre Dame passing defense: #3

Once again—look at that matchup. Perfect, right? All these numbers are corrected for opposition—and also, none of them count non-FBS games, so Iowa State's worst game isn't included (it was the first game of the season, so maybe that's ok). Iowa State's star on offense is Brock Purdy, who has 3,760 passing yards with 27 TDs and 9 picks. The Cyclones are a lot less balanced on offense than Notre Dame, relying heavily on the pass where they rank #6 in the nation. The Irish, to counter, rank #3 in per-play pass defense adjusted for opposition. That makes for a great showdown.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Notre Dame #73    Iowa State #113

 

Notre Dame's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. @Louisville 35-17
   
2. New Mexico 66-14
   
3. @#5 Georgia 17-23
   
4. #24 Virginia 35-20
   
5. Bowling Green 52-0
   
6. #22 Southern Cal 30-27
   
7. @#14 Michigan 14-45
   
8. Virginia Tech 21-20
   
9. @Duke 38-7
   
10. #23 Navy 52-20
    
11. Boston College 40-7
    
12. @Stanford 45-24

Looking over Notre Dame's record, they really do have a point that they should have gone to a better bowl game. Not only were both of their losses to Playoff Committee top 25 teams, but they actually beat three other top 25 teams among their 6 wins over bowl squads! That's a great résumé, and they should have been paired with another Committee top 25 team for sure. Normally Notre Dame fans complain about anything and everything, so it starts to go in one ear and out the other; this time, their beef is legit!

The Irish played solid and consistent football in the first half of the season, losing to Georgia by a touchdown and beating Virginia and USC. The beatdown at the hands of Michigan is what made the college football world lose interest in (and lose track of) the Irish. So far fewer were paying attention by the time they destroyed a very good Navy team 52-20, part of a 5-game win streak to end the year.

 

Iowa State's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

1. Northern Iowa 29-26 3OT
   
2. #16 Iowa 17-18
   
3. Louisiana-Monroe 72-20
   
4. @#7 Baylor 21-23
   
5. TCU 49-24
   
6. @West Virginia 38-14
   
7. @Texas Tech 34-24
   
8. #25 Oklahoma St 27-34
   
9. @#4 Oklahoma 41-42
   
10. Texas 23-21
    
11. Kansas 41-31
    
12. @Kansas St 17-27

Iowa State kicked off the season with a win, but it was a terrible win. Northern Iowa is a great program in the FCS, but the Cyclones should not have needed three overtimes to beat them, especially at home. Since this was the first game, and a weird rivalry game, we can probably discount it, particularly when we see how well they played against great FBS teams, even in losing.

The Cyclones lost to #16 Iowa by a single point; to #7 Baylor by 2 points; to #25 Oklahoma State by a touchown; and to #4 Oklahoma by 1 point. So any notion that the Irish will wipe them out should be taken with a grain of salt. The 'Clones didn't really prove they can beat a top 25 team, but get close enough times and it will eventually happen.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Notre Dame's season: -2 wins; Iowa State's season: -1 win
• Notre Dame's momentum: +0 wins; Iowa State's momentum: -1 win
• Notre Dame glad to be here? NO; Iowa State glad to be here: YES
• Notre Dame time zones from home: 0; Iowa State time zones from home: 1
• Notre Dame coaching situation: OC fired; Iowa State coaching situation: unchanged

There's no doubt that Notre Dame and its fans are peeved at this bowl selection. The team is 10-2 and ranked. In the (very biased) years before the selection committee, the Irish would be playing on New Year's Day if not for the national title! And to play a team with no real football history, a 7-5 team, in a no-name bowl (really, it has no name other than its sponsor). The indignity!

Iowa State gets to play Notre Dame, however, for the first time in school history. That's a good result for a 7-5 season. The Cyclones will by hyped for this contest, while Notre Dame will just be pissed. Update: To add awkwardness to insult, Brian Kelly fired offensive coordinator Chip Long during bowl preparation for undisclosed reasons.

Final analysis

This is a great matchup, whichever team has the ball. Both offenses and both defenses are in the top 25. When Iowa State's QB ges back to pass, it's a top ten passing offense vs. a top ten pass defense. It's also a great dual between two star quarterbacks. You'd hardly believe you were watching the "Camping World" Bowl right?

Clearly Iowa State is more pleased with being selected for this bowl game. That points to an Iowa State win. But there's still a chance that Notre Dame will be so pissed off that they will take out their frustrations on Iowa State and blow out the Cyclones.

That would be a strong possibility if they were actually superior to the 'Clones. But the teams are pretty even, so it's not a matter of the Irish overcoming their misgivings and playing to their ability. No, this is actually a fair matchup of two quality teams. So for Notre Dame to win, they're going to have to play their best, not just show up angry and prove they deserved better.

The Irish played well until the Michigan game; that loss carried over to their next game, a 1-point win over Virginia Tech. After that they played four great games to end the season. Does this bowl "snub" interrupt their great play, or will they pick up where they left off? If the latter is the case, those 4 game performances were 11 points better than their full-season average.

So if the team can overcome its disappointment at going to the worst-named bowl game and playing against a 7-5 team, instead of going to the Orange Bowl which they should have, then the Irish can win by double digits. I think they can overcome on of the two; if they'd had Oklahoma State (9-3) instead, it wouldn't be as bad. But this is a double slap in the face. The worst thing is Iowa State really is the equal of the Irish this year, so Notre Dame will have to dig in to earn a win. Kudos to them if they do, but I can't see them being fired up to do so. Meanwhile Iowa State is selling out its ticket allotment, something that never happens. OC Chip Long's departure from Notre Dame just reinforces our opinion, and we leave our predicted score the same.

Prediction:  Iowa State 26, Notre Dame 25

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Cheez-It Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Air Force vs. Washington State

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Cheez-It Bowl in Phoenix, AZ
Time: Friday, December 27 at 10:15 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Air Force Falcons (10-2) vs. Washington State Cougars (6-6)

Fun fact: This is the bowl game featuring teams with the biggest alphabetical gap of the bowl season. It also features the biggest gap between running vs. passing focus you will find.

Vegas line/spread: Air Force by 2 1/2 (over/under 69)

Moves: The line wavered up to 3 and back down by game day; the o/u is up from 67.

Strength power rating:   #30 Washington State 36,   #36 Air Force 34
Adjusted for turnovers: Washington State 38-35
Median game rating: Washington State 33-32

Air Force is favored by Vegas but the Strength Power rating has Washington State by a nose, by 2, 3, or 1 point depending on the adjustment above.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -2.5 Spread
Air Force	51%	44%
Washington State	49%	56%

Now we have an interesting result. Notice that we favor Washington State, but now we're saying that Air Force wins 51% of the time. In the game-comparison system, we take every game result of each team and pit them against each other, resulting in 144 (12 time 12) comparisons. In this case, Air Force probably wins most of the close ones, and Washington State's wins are of a bigger magnitude so the average (mean) result tips to the Cougars. Air Force narrowly wins more trial contests, but not against the spread.

When Air Force has the ball

Air Force scoring offense: #50	Washington State scoring defense: #82
Air Force total offense: #72	Washington State total defense: #111
Air Force rushing offense: #4	Washington State rushing defense: #105
Air Force passing offense: #125	Washington State passing defense: #115

Air Force boasts a top 25 offense until you correct for their schedule; then they fall to #50 in scoring, and #72 in total offense. But their rushing offense is legitimately in the top 5. That's because they run the option so they run all the time. And that's why they rank #125 in passing. It's also why three Falcons have over 700 yards on the ground.

Meanwhile Washington State's defense is a mess, both against the pass (which hardly matters here) and against the run (which is very bad for this matchup).

When Washington State has the ball

Washington State scoring offense: #7	Air Force scoring defense: #31
Washington State total offense: #6	Air Force total defense: #29
Washington State rushing offense: #128	Air Force rushing defense: #32
Washington State passing offense: #1	Air Force passing defense: #65

There's no question, Washington State looks to win via offense, and so it's a good thing they have one of the best in the country. WSU quarterbacks typically put up gaudy numbers, and Anthony Gordon is no exception with 5,228(!) yards and 45 touchdowns, against 16 picks. Amazingly no Cougar receiver has hit 1,000 yards but two are over 900 and another FIVE have over 500 yards! Clearly Gordon has no trouble with scarcity of targets.

WSU ranks near dead-last in rushing, so Air Force's extentive experience in practice against the run is wasted. Their pass defense is pretty average, which is a bad thing when playing Washington State.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Air Force #47    Washington State #55

 

Air Force's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

1. Colgate 48-7
   
2. @Colorado 30-23 OT
   
3. @#19 Boise St 19-30
   
4. San José St 41-24
   
5. @#23 Navy 25-34
   
6. Fresno St 43-24
   
7. @Hawai`i 56-26
   
8. Utah St 31-7
   
9. Army 17-13
   
10. @Colorado St 38-21
    
11. @New Mexico 44-22
    
12. Wyoming 20-6

At 10-2 and with only narrow losses only to top 25 teams, Air Force should have ended the season ranked in the top 25 by the Playoff Committee. The rest of their schedule was light, yes, but they beat three bowl teams by the end of the year, with a 7-game winning streak. Air Force plays solid, consistent football, probably because limiting the number of possession with the ground game has that effect. That, and their solid defense keeps things within boundaries.

 

Washington State's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (0)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (1)

1. New Mexico St 58-7
   
2. Northern Colorado 59-17
   
3. @Houston 31-24
   
4. UCLA 63-67
   
5. @#11 Utah 13-38
   
6. @Arizona St 34-38
   
7. Colorado 41-10
   
8. @#6 Oregon 35-37
   
9. @California 20-33
   
10. Stanford 49-22
    
11. Oregon St 54-53
    
12. @Washington 13-31

In contrast to Air Force, Washington State's performances are all over the places, the kind of variance you get with a sped-up passing game. Things started off well enough at 3-0 and game 4 looked well in hand with WSU leading UCLA 49-17. But the Bruins launched a miracle comeback to win prompting Mike Leach to call the team "fat, dumb, happy and entitled." They lost the next two games, paused to beat Colorado 41-10, then lost two more but almost beat Oregon in what was one of their best performances. The Cougars beat Stanford and Oregon State to get bowl eligible but were dismissed by Washington 31-13 in the Apple Cup. They didn't beat a single bowl-worthy team. From the chart it looks like WSU plays at two levels, with the higher level only kicking in 1/3 of the time, when the offense plays well and the defense doesn't suck.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Air Force's season: +5 wins; Washington State's season: -4 wins
• Air Force's momentum: +2 wins; Washington State's momentum: +0 wins
• Air Force glad to be here? YES; Washington State glad to be here: maybe
• Air Force time zones from home: 0; Washington State time zones from home: 1
• Air Force coaching situation: unchanged; Washington State coaching situation: unchanged

Another contrast between the Falcons and Cougars: change from last year. WSU was 10-2 in the regular season last year, and Air Force just 5-7. They very nearly traded places. So while Air Force should be psyched about this bowl game, it's understandable if Washington State isn't.

Final analysis

There are all sorts of contrasts here. The main one is on offense, where Washington State has one of the most prolific pass attack and hardly uses the run. Air Force on the other hand runs the ball all the time, only using the pass as a surprise. 

The Falcon offense is about average, but Washington State's defense is porous. Meanwhile the Cougars have a great offense but Air Force counters with a pretty decent defense.

Washington State's offense plays at a pretty fast clip, while Air Force plays at a slow pace. We might end up with a game with an average number of possession, something neither team is used to. The question is whether a slower pace throws WSU off, or whether Air Force's defense is tired out by keeping up with the fast Cougar offensive pace.

If defense wins games, go with Air Force. Their pass D might be just average at #65, but that's better than Washington State's rush defense which ranks #125. That, and the notion that Air Force had a better season, especially compared to 2018, while Washington State took a step back, should give Air Force the psychological edge. Unless Mike Leach can motivate the Cougars again by calling them fat and dumb, Air Force should grind out a win.

Prediction:  Air Force 37, Washington State 31

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Holiday Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Iowa vs. USC

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Holiday Bowl in San Diego, CA
Time: Friday, December 27 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: Fox Sports 1

#16 Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3) vs. USC Trojans (8-4)

Iowa travels to San Diego to meet USC in what should be a close game.

Vegas line/spread: Iowa by 2 1/2 (over/under 52.5)

Movement: Very little. The o/u is up from 52, the line up from 2.

Strength power rating:   #17 Iowa 24,   #27 USC 23    
Adjusted for turnovers: USC 25-22
Median game rating: Iowa 25-24

We give USC partial home field advantage for playing a few hours from home instead of a few thousand miles. The spread from our Strength power rating is closer to 2 points than one point, but rounding the scores gives a 1-point difference.

Adjusting for turnovers, where USC has had "back luck" and Iowa good fortune, turns the game into an expected 1-point win for the Trojans, given that turnovers are mostly random events that shouldn't be expected to occur at the same rate. Using the teams' median game performance average, which negates the effect of outlier games, Iowa is about a half-point favorite. It looks close!

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -2 Spread
Iowa	53%	48%
USC	47%	52%

As expected from the Strength power rating results, cross-comparing game performances yields an Iowa win most of the time, but not covering a 2 point spread most of the time.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa scoring offense: #61	USC scoring defense: #54
Iowa total offense: #75	USC total defense: #72
Iowa rushing offense: #69	USC rushing defense: #97
Iowa passing offense: #58	USC passing defense: #27

Iowa's scoring offense is just #97 in raw terms, but they've faced some of the toughest defenses in the country in the Big Ten (think Wisconsin, Penn State). Adjusted for that, Iowa's offense is roughly average for the FBS. Still not great, but not as lowly as their raw scores would indicate. Not surprisingly, the Hawkeyes lack stars on offense; QB Nate Stanley has a workmanlike 2,738 yards with a 14:7 TD:int ratio, and there are rotating feature players at RB and WR. If anything, their star on offense is kicker Keith Duncan, who has made 29 of 34 field goals; he's a big reason why Iowa is #5 in red zone percentage even though the Hawks only score touchdowns in the RZ around 50% of the time. USC's defense, meanwhile, is much like the Hawkeye offense—good but not great. Look for Iowa to try to run the ball against the Trojans.

When USC has the ball

USC scoring offense: #14	Iowa scoring defense: #3
USC total offense: #15	Iowa total defense: #12
USC rushing offense: #95	Iowa rushing defense: #24
USC passing offense: #4	Iowa passing defense: #11

Like Iowa, USC has faced tough defenses and their #34 offense gets an adjusted upgrade to #14. It's here where this game will look like a New Year's Day bowl, as Iowa has the #3 scoring defense. USC doesn't run the ball well but their passing game is huge with QB Kedon Slovis (3,242 yards, 28 TDs, 9 int) throwing to great targets like Michael Pittman Jr (1,222 yards, 11 TDs). The Hawkeyes have a solid pass defense but they are a bend-don't-break unit, so expect USC to throw for lots of yardage. How much they can score is the big question. Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa has 9 sacks on the year.

Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Iowa #4    USC #98

Iowa has the clear edge here, mostly because of Lou Groza candidate Keith Duncan. USC's Chase McGrath is good, too, but not used nearly as often on field goals.

 

Iowa's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

1. Miami OH 38-14
   
2. Rutgers 30-0
   
3. @Iowa St 18-17
   
4. MTSU 48-3
   
5. @#14 Michigan 3-10
   
6. #10 Penn State 12-17
   
7. Purdue 26-20
   
8. @Northwestern 20-0
   
9. @#8 Wisconsin 22-24
   
10. #18 Minnesota 23-19
    
11. Illinois 19-10
    
12. @Nebraska 27-24

Iowa lost only to Top 25 teams this season, and always by a close score: 7 points at Michigan; 5 points vs. Penn State; 2 points at Wisconsin. Their game ratings for these losses match or exceed most of their winning performances. Say what you want about Iowa but they are a very consistent team. They did beat Minnesota, who ended up ranked two spots below them at #18 so that was just another example of keeping things in order.

 

USC's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

1. Fresno St 31-23
   
2. Stanford 45-20
   
3. @Brigham Young 27-30 OT
   
4. #11 Utah 30-23
   
5. @Washington 14-28
   
6. @#15 Notre Dame 27-30
   
7. Arizona 41-14
   
8. @Colorado 35-31
   
9. #6 Oregon 24-56
   
10. @Arizona St 31-26
    
11. @California 41-17
    
12. UCLA 52-35

USC had an up and down year, unlike consistent Iowa. The Trojans opened with a tepid win over Fresno, but impressed with a strong win over Stanford (who finished just 4-8). The next game was an overtime loss to BYU, and hopes of a big comeback season were dashed. They turned around and beat #11 Utah for their biggest win of the year.

Lest anyone think the Trojans were back again and would be beating ranked teams, they promptly lost the next 2 games at Washington and Notre Dame, and a bit later they lost big to Oregon. With coach Clay Helton on the hot seat the Trojans surprised again by impressively dispatching Arizona State, Cal, and UCLA. It was bumpy along the way but 8-4 ended up looking pretty decent, especially with a 5-1 finish.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Iowa's season: +1 win; USC's season: +3 wins
• Iowa's momentum: +1 win; USC's momentum: +2 wins
• Iowa glad to be here? yes; USC glad to be here: a grudging yes
• Iowa time zones from home: 2; USC time zones from home: 0
• Iowa coaching situation: unchanged; USC coaching situation: stablilized

It's very telling that Iowa finished with the same win total as last year (post bowl win), while USC had a strong turnaround from last year's 5-7, and somehow it's USC's fanbase that is unsatisfied with progress and almost had their head coach fired. The Trojans' strong finish saved Clay Helton's job, and if you ask their fans, they will grudgingly admit that there was progress from last year and going to the Holiday Bowl is a good thing. But in the back of their mind they are still expecting Pac-12 championships, if not national championships.

Final analysis

This is a good matchup. USC's offense is great, Iowa's defense is great. On the other side of both coins, well, neither team excels but they are still evenly matched. Over the last 3 games USC has taken their offense to even higher heights, but the defense continues to lag. Perhaps the game will be a higher scoring one than expected. Iowa has some starters listed as questionable on offense, but so does USC on defense. We assume most will play and injuries will offset each other anyway.

Iowa is very consistent, while USC is kind of all over the place. Iowa will play the same game it has played all year. In other words, it's USC that will determine who wins this game; the variance in the Trojan performance is definitely enough to push a projected close game one way or the other. And psychology probably determines whether they put forth a strong effort or not.

USC fans are ultimately not satisfied with the progress made this year, when they really should be. Another 3-win improvement and they'll be right back to challenging for championships. Iowa has no such expectations. Playing in California during an Iowa winter? That's good news. A 9-3 season? Better than most years. Losing the close games to the best teams? Not happy about that, but hey they beat Minnesota.

It seems that Iowa has a better attitude about their spot in the college football hierarchy, grousing occasionally but realizing that not everyone can be Ohio State. USC, on the other hand, expects to be Ohio State every year. Hell, they expect Ohio State to want to be USC!

 

So while Iowa is pleased to be taking on a team like USC in the bowl season, USC is playing near home (ho-hum) and playing a team that rarely figures in the national race. In 2003 both teams were ranked in the top ten when they met, and USC beat Iowa 38-17 in the Orange Bowl. USC was motivated for that game. The 2019 Holiday Bowl is a different matter. Only Iowa seems to have motivation this time around.

Prediction:  Iowa 37, USC 31

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.

2019 Texas Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: #25 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here

Texas Bowl in Houston, TX
Time: Friday, December 27 at 6:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#25 Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-4) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (7-5)

A good old-fashioned Big 12 reunion in Houston.

Vegas line/spread: Texas A&M by 5 1/2 (over/under 54)

Moves: The line held steady at 7 for a while but made its way down to 5 1/2 by game day. The over/under only moved a half point, up from 53.5.

Strength power rating:  #28 Texas A&M 30,  #23 Oklahoma State 28   
Adjusted for turnovers: Texas A&M 31-29
Median game rating: Texas A&M 32-28

Despite finishing in the Playoff Committee's top 25, Oklahoma State finds itself an underdog against the Aggies. Perhaps it's the location? We give Texas A&M partial home field advantage for playing less than 100 miles from home (it's not quite like the Texas-Oklahoma game where the teams travel the same distance and the neutral status of Dallas is "agreed upon.")  The Cowboys rank higher in our Strength power rating but the home field edge tilts our estimate to the Aggies, but just barely.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Oklahoma State	45%	65%
Texas A&M	55%	35%

As expected, Texas A&M wins most of the game trials, but only about 1/3 of the comparisons against a 7-point spread.

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Oklahoma State scoring offense: #22	Texas A&M scoring defense: #25
Oklahoma State total offense: #11	Texas A&M total defense: #13
Oklahoma State rushing offense: #6	Texas A&M rushing defense: #22
Oklahoma State passing offense: #76	Texas A&M passing defense: #24

This is a good matchup; Oklahoma State has a top 25 offense and the Aggies have a top 25 defense, and they're well-matched in terms of scoring/scoring allowed and yardage gained/allowed. The Aggie defense is solid against both the pass and the run, while Oklahoma State's offense is geared toward the ground game. No wonder: you would be too if you had Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher with 1,936 yards. That's over 160 yards per game, and he's consistent, too, reaching the 100 yard mark every game except one (McNeese State, where he carried just 8 times). He's scored 21 TDs this year. Not quite Barry Sanders but probably the closest the Cowboys have had since 1988.

Oklahoma State's starting QB Spencer Sanders was lost for the season in November; his replacement, Dru Brown, started for Hawaii for two seasons before transferring to Oklahoma State and is a marginally more accurate passer but not nearly the ground threat Sanders was. Oklahoma State has also been without leading receiver Tylan Wallace since late October. The Aggies on the other hand will miss sacks leader Justin Madubuike who is preparing for the NFL.

When Texas A&M has the ball

Texas A&M scoring offense: #39	Oklahoma State scoring defense: #36
Texas A&M total offense: #40	Oklahoma State total defense: #56
Texas A&M rushing offense: #59	Oklahoma State rushing defense: #34
Texas A&M passing offense: #49	Oklahoma State passing defense: #50

The matchup on this side is fair, too, as both the Aggie offense and Cowboy defense are above average. Unlike Oklahoma State, Texas A&M's offense doesn't focus on any particular area. QB Kellen Mond has thrown for 2,802 yards and 19 TDs and he has 383 net yards on the ground and 7 more scores.


Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Oklahoma State #30    Texas A&M #59

 

Oklahoma State's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

1. @Oregon St 52-36
   
2. McNeese St 56-14
   
3. @Tulsa 40-21
   
4. @Texas 30-36
   
5. Kansas St 26-13
   
6. @Texas Tech 35-45
   
7. #7 Baylor 27-45
   
8. @Iowa St 34-27
   
9. TCU 34-27
   
10. Kansas 31-13
    
11. @West Virginia 20-13
    
12. #4 Oklahoma 16-34

Aside from a dip in the middle—the losses to Texas Tech and Baylor—Oklahoma State played a pretty consistent year of football. They started strong at 4-1 with a close loss at Texas. The wins over Kansas State and Iowa State were the high points, but they weren't much higher than the rest of their performances. There may have been a bit of a slump at the end as they played lesser teams and then lost at home to Oklahoma, but that could just be the eye looking for a pattern. They played the last 2 games without QB Spencer Sanders, and their offensive ratings for those games is a lot lower than the first 10 games. 

 

Texas A&M's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

1. Texas St-San Marcos 41-7
   
2. @#3 Clemson 10-24
   
3. Lamar 62-3
   
4. #12 Auburn 20-28
   
5. =Arkansas 31-27
   
6. #13 Alabama 28-47
   
7. @Mississippi 24-17
   
8. Mississippi St 49-30
   
9. Texas-San Antonio 45-14
   
10. South Carolina 30-6
    
11. @#5 Georgia 13-19
    
12. @#1 LSU 7-50

Texas A&M followed a pretty narrow path in 2019: beat every team that is not in the top 15; lose to any team that is in the top 15. The Aggies lost to #3 Clemson, but made it respectable. They also played well losing to #12 Auburn, #13 Alabama, and #5 Georgia. Only against #1 LSU did the bottom drop out. So there were no bad losses, but where were the good wins? Not the 31-27 win over Arkansas. Not Texas State, or UTSA, or Lamar. Not the 24-17 win over Ole Miss. Only two wins really look good: beating bowl-bound Mississippi State, and crushing South Carolina 30-6. This makes Texas A&M's season an enigma, with a wide gulf between the worst team they lost to (Alabama? really?) and the best team they beat (Miss St). Oklahoma State falls into that wide range, certainly. The Aggies can't beat a top 15 team, but can they beat #25?

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Oklahoma State's season: +3 wins; Texas A&M's season: -1 win
• Oklahoma State's momentum: +0 wins; Texas A&M's momentum: +1 win
• Oklahoma State glad to be here? yes; Texas A&M glad to be here: yes
• Oklahoma State time zones from home: 0; Texas A&M time zones from home: 0
• Oklahoma State coaching situation: unchanged; Texas A&M coaching situation: unchanged

Both teams are playing pretty close to home and probably like where they ended up, especially Texas A&M who is playing in their own backyard. Oklahoma State could have landed somewhere better, but it wouldn't have been as close, and it wouldn't have been against former Big 12 rival A&M. The teams first played in 1913 and have faced off 27 times, including 14 times during the 1996-2011 span before the Aggies left for the SEC (thanks to www.winsipedia.com for making this information so easy to find).

Final analysis

Texas A&M has shown they can compete with the best teams in the nation. But in five tries, they haven't succeeded once in winning. Does that mean they will compete well with Oklahoma State but fall short? It would be different if they also shown an ability to beat good teams outside the top 25, but they only played one winning team, Mississippi State, in their 7 other games.

The matchups on offense and defense look pretty even for both teams. Texas A&M, however, can probably focus its defensive efforts more than Oklahoma State can. The Aggies know they have to try to stop Chuba Hubbard. Stopping Hubbard is easier said than done, but with Spencer Sanders gone the Cowboys lack a dual threat QB, and the Cowboys are also missing their leading receiver, diminishing the pass threat.

But there might be something to the QB change. Even though Dru Brown has played well, the offense as a whole hasn't. Their last three games rate 17 points lower than the first 9 games, and almost 13 points below their overall average. In the Kansas game, OK State led 24-0 when Sanders left in the 3rd quarter, and only scored 7 points. Against West Virginia (#49 defense) and Oklahoma (#26) they scored just 20 and 16, their lowest totals of the season. Now they face the #25 Aggie defense. 

When we first looked at this game we saw two evenly matched teams and wondered why a field goal game was getting a touchdown spread. Looking at Oklahoma State's injury situation—and particularly how it frees up defenses to focus on Hubbard—it becomes clear. Hubbard had just a touch over 100 yards in the last two games since West Virginia and Oklahoma didn't have to respect the quarterback run option, or worry as much about downfield passes with WR Wallace out. This might not matter against a bad defense, but the Aggies will be able to focus their efforts on Hubbard. We think Texas A&M will finally get a win over the Playoff Committee's top 25.

And now we agree with the Vegas spread. UPDATE: Until I upgraded Oklahoma's score by a point to account for Justin Madubuike's absence. And until the spread moved down with us. We're calling this one a draw vs. the spread, as both are dancing around so much this is one we would pass wagering on.

Prediction:   Texas A&M 30,  Oklahoma State 24

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.