View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Texas Bowl in Houston, TX
Time: Friday, December 27 at 6:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#25 Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-4) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (7-5)
A good old-fashioned Big 12 reunion in Houston.
Vegas line/spread: Texas A&M by 5 1/2 (over/under 54)
Moves: The line held steady at 7 for a while but made its way down to 5 1/2 by game day. The over/under only moved a half point, up from 53.5.
Strength power rating: #28 Texas A&M 30, #23 Oklahoma State 28
Adjusted for turnovers: Texas A&M 31-29
Median game rating: Texas A&M 32-28
Despite finishing in the Playoff Committee's top 25, Oklahoma State finds itself an underdog against the Aggies. Perhaps it's the location? We give Texas A&M partial home field advantage for playing less than 100 miles from home (it's not quite like the Texas-Oklahoma game where the teams travel the same distance and the neutral status of Dallas is "agreed upon.") The Cowboys rank higher in our Strength power rating but the home field edge tilts our estimate to the Aggies, but just barely.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 Spread |
| Oklahoma State | 45% | 65% |
| Texas A&M | 55% | 35% |
As expected, Texas A&M wins most of the game trials, but only about 1/3 of the comparisons against a 7-point spread.
When Oklahoma State has the ball
| Oklahoma State scoring offense: #22 |
Texas A&M scoring defense: #25 |
| Oklahoma State total offense: #11 |
Texas A&M total defense: #13 |
| Oklahoma State rushing offense: #6 |
Texas A&M rushing defense: #22 |
| Oklahoma State passing offense: #76 |
Texas A&M passing defense: #24 |
This is a good matchup; Oklahoma State has a top 25 offense and the Aggies have a top 25 defense, and they're well-matched in terms of scoring/scoring allowed and yardage gained/allowed. The Aggie defense is solid against both the pass and the run, while Oklahoma State's offense is geared toward the ground game. No wonder: you would be too if you had Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher with 1,936 yards. That's over 160 yards per game, and he's consistent, too, reaching the 100 yard mark every game except one (McNeese State, where he carried just 8 times). He's scored 21 TDs this year. Not quite Barry Sanders but probably the closest the Cowboys have had since 1988.
Oklahoma State's starting QB Spencer Sanders was lost for the season in November; his replacement, Dru Brown, started for Hawaii for two seasons before transferring to Oklahoma State and is a marginally more accurate passer but not nearly the ground threat Sanders was. Oklahoma State has also been without leading receiver Tylan Wallace since late October. The Aggies on the other hand will miss sacks leader Justin Madubuike who is preparing for the NFL.
When Texas A&M has the ball
| Texas A&M scoring offense: #39 |
Oklahoma State scoring defense: #36 |
| Texas A&M total offense: #40 |
Oklahoma State total defense: #56 |
| Texas A&M rushing offense: #59 |
Oklahoma State rushing defense: #34 |
| Texas A&M passing offense: #49 |
Oklahoma State passing defense: #50 |
The matchup on this side is fair, too, as both the Aggie offense and Cowboy defense are above average. Unlike Oklahoma State, Texas A&M's offense doesn't focus on any particular area. QB Kellen Mond has thrown for 2,802 yards and 19 TDs and he has 383 net yards on the ground and 7 more scores.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Oklahoma State #30 Texas A&M #59
Oklahoma State's season (9-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)
- @Oregon St 52-36
- McNeese St 56-14
- @Tulsa 40-21
- @Texas 30-36
- Kansas St 26-13
- @Texas Tech 35-45
- #7 Baylor 27-45
- @Iowa St 34-27
- TCU 34-27
- Kansas 31-13
- @West Virginia 20-13
- #4 Oklahoma 16-34
Aside from a dip in the middle—the losses to Texas Tech and Baylor—Oklahoma State played a pretty consistent year of football. They started strong at 4-1 with a close loss at Texas. The wins over Kansas State and Iowa State were the high points, but they weren't much higher than the rest of their performances. There may have been a bit of a slump at the end as they played lesser teams and then lost at home to Oklahoma, but that could just be the eye looking for a pattern. They played the last 2 games without QB Spencer Sanders, and their offensive ratings for those games is a lot lower than the first 10 games.
Texas A&M's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)
- Texas St-San Marcos 41-7
- @#3 Clemson 10-24
- Lamar 62-3
- #12 Auburn 20-28
- =Arkansas 31-27
- #13 Alabama 28-47
- @Mississippi 24-17
- Mississippi St 49-30
- Texas-San Antonio 45-14
- South Carolina 30-6
- @#5 Georgia 13-19
- @#1 LSU 7-50
Texas A&M followed a pretty narrow path in 2019: beat every team that is not in the top 15; lose to any team that is in the top 15. The Aggies lost to #3 Clemson, but made it respectable. They also played well losing to #12 Auburn, #13 Alabama, and #5 Georgia. Only against #1 LSU did the bottom drop out. So there were no bad losses, but where were the good wins? Not the 31-27 win over Arkansas. Not Texas State, or UTSA, or Lamar. Not the 24-17 win over Ole Miss. Only two wins really look good: beating bowl-bound Mississippi State, and crushing South Carolina 30-6. This makes Texas A&M's season an enigma, with a wide gulf between the worst team they lost to (Alabama? really?) and the best team they beat (Miss St). Oklahoma State falls into that wide range, certainly. The Aggies can't beat a top 15 team, but can they beat #25?
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Oklahoma State's season: +3 wins; Texas A&M's season: -1 win
- Oklahoma State's momentum: +0 wins; Texas A&M's momentum: +1 win
- Oklahoma State glad to be here? yes; Texas A&M glad to be here: yes
- Oklahoma State time zones from home: 0; Texas A&M time zones from home: 0
- Oklahoma State coaching situation: unchanged; Texas A&M coaching situation: unchanged
Both teams are playing pretty close to home and probably like where they ended up, especially Texas A&M who is playing in their own backyard. Oklahoma State could have landed somewhere better, but it wouldn't have been as close, and it wouldn't have been against former Big 12 rival A&M. The teams first played in 1913 and have faced off 27 times, including 14 times during the 1996-2011 span before the Aggies left for the SEC (thanks to www.winsipedia.com for making this information so easy to find).
Final analysis
Texas A&M has shown they can compete with the best teams in the nation. But in five tries, they haven't succeeded once in winning. Does that mean they will compete well with Oklahoma State but fall short? It would be different if they also shown an ability to beat good teams outside the top 25, but they only played one winning team, Mississippi State, in their 7 other games.
The matchups on offense and defense look pretty even for both teams. Texas A&M, however, can probably focus its defensive efforts more than Oklahoma State can. The Aggies know they have to try to stop Chuba Hubbard. Stopping Hubbard is easier said than done, but with Spencer Sanders gone the Cowboys lack a dual threat QB, and the Cowboys are also missing their leading receiver, diminishing the pass threat.
But there might be something to the QB change. Even though Dru Brown has played well, the offense as a whole hasn't. Their last three games rate 17 points lower than the first 9 games, and almost 13 points below their overall average. In the Kansas game, OK State led 24-0 when Sanders left in the 3rd quarter, and only scored 7 points. Against West Virginia (#49 defense) and Oklahoma (#26) they scored just 20 and 16, their lowest totals of the season. Now they face the #25 Aggie defense.
When we first looked at this game we saw two evenly matched teams and wondered why a field goal game was getting a touchdown spread. Looking at Oklahoma State's injury situation—and particularly how it frees up defenses to focus on Hubbard—it becomes clear. Hubbard had just a touch over 100 yards in the last two games since West Virginia and Oklahoma didn't have to respect the quarterback run option, or worry as much about downfield passes with WR Wallace out. This might not matter against a bad defense, but the Aggies will be able to focus their efforts on Hubbard. We think Texas A&M will finally get a win over the Playoff Committee's top 25.
And now we agree with the Vegas spread. UPDATE: Until I upgraded Oklahoma's score by a point to account for Justin Madubuike's absence. And until the spread moved down with us. We're calling this one a draw vs. the spread, as both are dancing around so much this is one we would pass wagering on.
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, Oklahoma State 24
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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