View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX
Time: Tuesday, December 31 at 2:00 pm ET
TV: CBS
Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5) vs. Florida State Seminoles (6-6)
Teams with middling seasons look to see who can raise their game and get another win.
Vegas line/spread: Arizona State by 4 (over/under 54)
Movement: The spread moved from 5 to 4, and the o/u dipped from 54.5
Strength power rating: #38 Arizona State 26, #56 Florida State 20
Adjusted for turnovers: Arizona State 23-20
Median game rating: Arizona State 26-21
Arizona State is favored both by Vegas and our Strength power rating by almost the same amount: 5 points and about 6 1/2 respectively. When we adjust for turnovers (treating them as random occurrences and filtering them out) it becomes a much closer game as ASU has a great turnover margin (and is therefore reliant on them continuing to happen). The median game rating spread is about 5 points.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -5 Spread |
| Arizona State | 76% | 50% |
| Florida State | 24% | 50% |
This is a very interesting result. Straight up, ASU wins 3 out of 4 trials against FSU. But they only win exactly 50% against a 5 point spread, which is very interesting since the average margin of victory is, as we noted above, 6.5 points by the Strength power rating (we'd expect the 50% mark to be around -6.5 points, in other words). To get the game comparisons we compare performance ratings of each team's full schedule and cross-compare them, yielding 144 (12 x 12) results. In this case, ASU wins by > 5 points 72 times. Looking at the teams charts later will tell us why we get this result.
When Arizona State has the ball
| Arizona State scoring offense: #62 |
Florida State scoring defense: #57 |
| Arizona State total offense: #85 |
Florida State total defense: #74 |
| Arizona State rushing offense: #93 |
Florida State rushing defense: #26 |
| Arizona State passing offense: #60 |
Florida State passing defense: #84 |
ASU only has the #93 scoring offense in the nation, but they've played very tough defenses and after correction, their offense is...still not great, but average for the FBS. ASU can't really run the ball at all and FSU is nearly top-25 against the run, so look for Jayden Daniels (2,748 yards, 17 TDs, 2 int) to see plenty of attempts. A bit problem, however, is that ASU's top receiver, Brandon Aiyuk (1,192 yards) is out preparing for the NFL; he has just about twice the yardage of the next WR. Not only that, but leading rusher Eno Benjamin (1,083 yards) is heading to the NFL as well. Trying to match them, FSU will be without LB Dontavious Jackson and CB Stanford Samuels III.
When Florida State has the ball
| Florida State scoring offense: #63 |
Arizona State scoring defense: #27 |
| Florida State total offense: #76 |
Arizona State total defense: #47 |
| Florida State rushing offense: #90 |
Arizona State rushing defense: #12 |
| Florida State passing offense: #45 |
Arizona State passing defense: #59 |
Florida State's offense is very similar statistically to ASU's. Average scoring, well-below average ground game, and better passing game. The Seminoles have used two quarterbacks, the injury-prone James Blackman (2,095 yards, 16 TD, 7 int) and backup Alex Hornibrook (986 yds, 7:2) and had reasonable success with both, but Hornibrook will not play in the bowl game. ASU's defense is better than FSU's overall, but has the same bias toward strong rush defense, and not-as-strong pass defense, so the main opportunity for FSU should be through the air, especially since Cam Akers (1,144 yards) is out preparing for the NFL and backup Khalan Laborn is out with a knee injury.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Arizona State #13 Florida State #64
Kicker Christian Zendejas gives Arizona State an edge; he's made 19 of 23 field goal attempts this year.
Arizona State's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (3)
- Kent St 30-7
- Sacramento St 19-7
- @Michigan St 10-7
- Colorado 31-34
- @California 24-17
- Washington St 38-34
- @#11 Utah 3-21
- @UCLA 32-42
- #22 Southern Cal 26-31
- @Oregon St 34-35
- #6 Oregon 31-28
- Arizona 24-14
Arizona State played pretty consistently across the season, but their end results were confounding. Winning 5 of their first 6 games—4 against bowl teams—the one outlier in performance was the home loss to Colorado; after giving up just 21 points in 3 games they Buffaloes scored 34 on them. Then the Sun Devils went on a 4-game losing streak but only one game—the loss to UCLA—was really a poor performance. They reached bowl eligibility in style, topping #6 Oregon 31-28, and beat rival Arizona to close things out. In the end ASU had five losses: two to Committee top 25 teams, and three to teams with losing records. Despite this their gameplay was remarkably consistent 9 out of 12 outings.
Florida State's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)
- #19 Boise St 31-36
- Louisiana-Monroe 45-44 OT
- @#24 Virginia 24-31
- Louisville 35-24
- North Carolina St 31-13
- @#3 Clemson 14-45
- @Wake Forest 20-22
- Syracuse 35-17
- Miami FL 10-27
- @Boston College 38-31
- Alabama St 49-12
- @#9 Florida 17-40
Florida State is also a very consistent team, really having just two outlier performances, both on the downside. One was the ULM overtime win, the other the 27-10 home loss to Miami that doomed coach Willie Taggart. In fact, it's amazing their performances were so stable considering the turmoil that supposedly rocked the program. In the end 4 of their 6 losses were to Committee top 25 teams, but they only beat 3 bowl teams and hardly played a game that could be called 'great.'
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Arizona State's season: +0 wins; Florida State's season: +1 win
- Arizona State's momentum: -3 wins; Florida State's momentum: +0 wins
- Arizona State glad to be here? probably; Florida State glad to be here: probably...
- Arizona State time zones from home: 0; Florida State time zones from home: 2
- Arizona State coaching situation: unchanged; Florida State coaching situation: Coach fired
For ASU, this season is similar to last year's 7-5, and it's good to be going to a bowl game close to home, but they go to the Sun Bowl quite a bit. It's nothing new, but it's not bad to head to El Paso. For Florida State, it's also a mixed bag. After a 5-7 2018 with no bowl game, going anywhere should feel like an accomplishment. On the other hand, the program is not very far removed from a national title (2014) and they went to the Orange Bowl just three years ago.
We show negative "momentum" for ASU, but that's just a simple measure of wins in the 1st half of the season vs. wins in the 2nd half. It's true that the Sun Devils hit a bad snap and lost 4 games in a row, but they closed out with the big Oregon upset and a win over rival Arizona, so you could argue they now have positive momentum.
The elephant here is of course the firing of Willie Taggart as FSU head coach, and what that did to the team, and what it means for the bowl game. Clearly, it's not ideal, but maybe enough time has passed for the team to adjust. Post-Taggart, the team won two games and lost to Florida, playing about the same as they played during Taggart.
Final analysis
We said that looking at the charts would explain the lower 50/50 point in our game-comparisons, but nothing stands out other than how consistent both teams are. It looks like ASU's one big upside outlier is skewing the mean, so that median point is +5 instead of the expected +6.5. It makes sense considering the spread using median rather than mean is also 5 points.
These teams have almost equivalent scoring offenses. Even their focus is the same; both teams are weak on the ground and much better through the air. But Arizona State has a much better defense—nearly top 25 in scoring defense—than the Seminoles. Both teams are very tough against the run but less so against the pass, so expect to see a lot of passing.
For Florida State to win, they have to raise their game a bit. But it doesn't look like they're capable of that; their chart shows a team that, given 12 chances, played within a narrow range with a few downside outliers but a definite "ceiling." Not that ASU is expected to level up, either; they did so exactly once, against Oregon. But their average level is a bit higher than FSU's to start with.
Florida State's motivation can be questioned after an emotionally tough season. They had pretty high expectations for a turnaround year, and while they reached a bowl game it's not a great one. The Sun Bowl is where USC ended up the year they started at #1; unmotivated and plagued with infighting, they lost to Georgia Tech 21-7. Not the same circumstances at all as FSU is the underdog, but USC was 3 years removed from a Rose Bowl win just as FSU is 3 years post-Orange Bowl win. If they come in flat it could be a disaster, but their three performances since Taggart was fired haven't been worse than normal.
So we've removed the teams' outlier games, two for FSU and three for ASU, and the results are roughly a 5 point win for Arizona State. Since that matches the original Vegas spread and the exact 50/50 tipping point in our game-comparison system, it seems a reasonable projection.
Both teams are missing key players. ASU is missing their top receiver and top running back. FSU is missing their top two running backs, their backup QB, and two defensive starters. Almost all of these are for NFL prep, which again makes us ask, does anyone want to win this game? The offenses are going to be hurt here; ASU's Aiyuk is their key receiver, and losing Benjamin means they pretty much have to throw the ball. Meanwhile FSU also has no running game left. We're going to dock each team a touchdown from our original prediction, but keep our spread the same.
Prediction: Arizona State 19, Florida State 14
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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