View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Redbox Bowl in Santa Clara, CA
Time: Monday, December 30 at 4:00 pm ET
TV: FOX
California Golden Bears (7-5) vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6)
The Cal Bears basically host Illinois in the Redbox Bowl.
Vegas line/spread: California by 6 1/2 (over/under 44.5)
Movements: Not much; the line started around 7 and dipped to 6.5 by game day, while the over/under is up from 43.
Strength power rating: #45 California 24, #55 Illinois 19
Adjusted for turnovers: California 23-15
Median game rating: California 21-19
We gave Cal partial home field advantage and maybe we should give the full allotment. They're playing 50 miles from home while Illinois is traveling across two time zones and over 2,000 miles to get to Santa Clara. Full HFA would make Cal a 6 point favorite, close to the 7 point Vegas spread.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 Spread |
| California | 58% | 47% |
| Illinois | 42% | 53% |
Cal wins most the comparisons, but falls short of a majority of covers against the spread.
When California has the ball
| California scoring offense: #95 |
Illinois scoring defense: #66 |
| California total offense: #114 |
Illinois total defense: #86 |
| California rushing offense: #87 |
Illinois rushing defense: #78 |
| California passing offense: #110 |
Illinois passing defense: #80 |
Cal's offense isn't winning them many games, and might not win them this one. But there's hope since Illinois doesn't have a great defense. The Illini look up to the task of stopping Cal from scoring for the most part, but the Bears will probably get a decent amount of yardage. The key is to avoid turnovers, which is Illinois' forte: forcing fumbles and getting interceptions. #2 WR Jordan Duncan is out, but Cal spreads things out a lot (9 players had 100+ receiving yards).
When Illinois has the ball
| Illinois scoring offense: #54 |
California scoring defense: #16 |
| Illinois total offense: #102 |
California total defense: #45 |
| Illinois rushing offense: #56 |
California rushing defense: #29 |
| Illinois passing offense: #108 |
California passing defense: #34 |
Illinois is one of "those" teams, the ones with a big discrepancy between their scoring offense rating and total offense (yardage) ranking. How can the #102 team in yardage be the #54 scoring offense? One way is avoiding turnovers. The Illini are pretty good at that but they're really good at causing turnovers on defense—which often leads to great starting field position and points without a lot of yards (or no offensive yards if its a pick six). Cal's defense is pretty solid, so if they avoid turnovers on offense they should keep things under control. Illinois QB Brandon Peters and top WR Josh Imatorbhebhe are both among a slew of Illini listed as questionable, which normally means they will play; if both don't, the passing offense goes even more limp.
Cal announced recently that two defensive starters won't play in the bowl game: safeties Ashtyn Davis and LB Tevin Paul, as well as Davis' backup Trey Turner.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): California #99 Illinois #15
Special teams can also be a reason a low-yardage team scores a lot of points, and Illinois ranks high on special teams. Their kicker, James McCourt, is 4 of 5 from 50 yards+. Not getting inside the 35 but still getting points follows the few-yards-per-point formula. Their punter, Blake Hayes, is #18 in the nation with a 44.8 average, which helps Illinois play the field position game, another path toward easier points.
California's season (7-5)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)
- UC-Davis 27-13
- @Washington 20-19
- North Texas 23-17
- @Mississippi 28-20
- Arizona St 17-24
- @#6 Oregon 7-17
- Oregon St 17-21
- @#11 Utah 0-35
- Washington St 33-20
- #22 Southern Cal 17-41
- @Stanford 24-20
- @UCLA 28-18
By beating Washington and Mississippi on the road, California looked like a Pac-12 contender after four games. After another four games they looked like they might not make a bowl game. They played a great game at #6 Oregon and losing to #11 Utah in Salt Lake City is no embarrassment, but they shouldn't have lost to both ASU and Oregon State at home. They responded with a solid win over Washington State but lost bad to USC at home. The Bears secured a bowl spot by beating Stanford and knocked off UCLA, too, both on the road. We're giving them home field advantage in the bowl but I'm not sure the Bears wouldn't be better off playing away from home.
Illinois's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (6) to losing teams (2)
- Akron 42-3
- @Connecticut 31-23
- Eastern Michigan 31-34
- Nebraska 38-42
- @#18 Minnesota 17-40
- #14 Michigan 25-42
- #8 Wisconsin 24-23
- @Purdue 24-6
- Rutgers 38-10
- @Michigan St 37-34
- @#16 Iowa 10-19
- Northwestern 10-29
Illinois beat Akron 42-3 but then again, Akron finished 0-12. They beat 2-10 UConn by just 8 points, which is worse, and the Eastern Michigan home loss was just as bad. The Illini played a bit better over the next 3 against Nebraska, #18 Minnesota, and #14 Michigan, but lost them all. Then came one of two great moments in Illinois' season: the 24-23 upset of Wisconsin. At the time the Badgers were a definite Playoff contender, and Illinois spoiled those hopes for sure.
The turning point might have been during the Michigan game when, down 28-0, they came back to within 28-25. It was a foreshadowing of things to come. After Wisconsin they solidly beat Purdue and Rutgers before going to Michigan State, which set up Great Moment #2: The Comeback. Down 31-10, the Illini made a 4th quarter comeback to beat the Spartans 37-34. It turned out to be their last hurrah though. Maybe they were exhausted from two exceptionally emotional wins within a month. They still played well at Iowa but never led, and then they collapsed against a dismal 3-9 Wildcat team, their worst effort of the season.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- California's season: +0 wins; Illinois's season: +2* wins
- California's momentum: -1 win; Illinois's momentum: +2 wins
- California glad to be here? yes; Illinois glad to be here: YES
- California time zones from home: 0; Illinois time zones from home: 2
- California coaching situation: unchanged; Illinois coaching situation: unchanged
Illinois has to be happier about their season relative to last year when they were 4-8 and didn't go bowling. Cal had the same record and went 3-3 at home, 4-2 on the road. It's hard to rate any momentum; Illinois went 2-4 then 4-2, but finished with 2 losses while Cal won 3 of 4 at the end.
Both teams took a rollercoaster approach to the season. Cal had four wins, then four losses, then finished strong. Illinois played poorly going 2-4, then won 4 in a row with two crazy games in the mix, but their last game was a dud. Cal certainly gets the edge for finishing strong but does it matter given the time off before the 30th?
We can assume both teams like this placement; Cal for the short trip from campus, and Illinois for going to a bowl at all after a 4-season drought.
Final analysis
The key for Cal is to avoid turnovers. Hold onto the ball and Illinois has to go long distances for points instead of getting good field position. Cal has the defense to beat Illinois but maybe not the offense, so they can't afford to be giving the ball away. Illinois lives off turnovers. They got 3 in the win over Wisconsin and 4 in the big comeback against Michigan State. But they only had 1 in each of their worst losses, to Eastern Michigan and Northwestern.
Illinois played poorly at the beginning of the season and turned into a very good team. But they laid an egg at the end against Northwestern, their worst game of the season. Some of it was sheer exhaustion; the Illini also had a lot of players out including their starting quarterback. Time to heal, and rest emotionally, should avoid another fiasco like the Northwestern game.
We think Illinois will have time to recover and look back at a season that will be remembered more than just about any other 6-6 season you will find. The Wisconsin win and the Michigan State comeback are football memories that leave a legacy. After no bowl for four years, they'll be ready to play. Cal might underestimate them as just another 6-6 Big Ten team, and feel overconfident playing at home (practically). Cal is missing a few key defensive starters which could keep the game tight, and if it comes down to a long field goal, Illinois could pull off the upset.
But we still pick the Bears. We're giving Illinois every chance here, taking away Cal's home field advantage because they don't seem to have one, pretending that Illinois' loss to Northwestern didn't happen, and basically assuming Illinois' turnover dominance will continue, and still Cal edges them by the numbers. Illinois might not get the win but they should give Cal a run for their money.
Prediction: California 21, Illinois 20
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
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