View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Pinstripe Bowl in New York, NY
Time: Friday, December 27 at 3:20pm ET
TV: ESPN
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4) vs. Michigan State Spartans (6-6)
Two programs meet in Yankee Stadium, each having a very different outlook for the Pinstripe Bowl.
Vegas line/spread: Michigan State by 4 (over/under 50)
Interestingly, the over/under dropped from 53 to 49 in a few days time, then ended up at 50. The line slipped to 3 1/2 for a bit but was back up to 4 by game day.
Strength power rating: #37 Michigan State 29, #61 Wake Forest 24
Adjusted for turnovers: Michigan State 30-21
Median game rating: Michigan State 28-23
Despite Wake Forest's superior win-loss status, the Spartans are favored both by Vegas and the Strength power rating; the optional adjustments don't change that.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -4 Spread |
| Wake Forest | 39% | 45% |
| Michigan State | 61% | 55% |
As reflected in the power rating spread, Michigan State still wins most trials against a 4 point spread.
When Wake Forest has the ball
| Wake Forest scoring offense: #44 |
Michigan State scoring defense: #20 |
| Wake Forest total offense: #30 |
Michigan State total defense: #15 |
| Wake Forest rushing offense: #58 |
Michigan State rushing defense: #9 |
| Wake Forest passing offense: #22 |
Michigan State passing defense: #32 |
Wake Forest has a decent but unspectacular offense that gains yardage at a better clip than they score points. They're an average rushing team but their passing game was top 25 level when they had A-level receivers Sage Surratt (1,001 yards, 11 TDs) and Kendall Hinton (953 yards). Surratt is out for the season, so Hinton will need a big game though they will likely have #3 Scotty Washington (607) back. At QB it will either be Jamie Newman or Sam Hartman, depending on Newman's health status; it shouldn't make as big of a difference as the WR situation. Michigan State, as always, has a tough defense but the pass is their relative weakness. Their solid red zone play should help keep points off the board.
When Michigan State has the ball
| Michigan State scoring offense: #64 |
Wake Forest scoring defense: #79 |
| Michigan State total offense: #66 |
Wake Forest total defense: #81 |
| Michigan State rushing offense: #88 |
Wake Forest rushing defense: #84 |
| Michigan State passing offense: #34 |
Wake Forest passing defense: #71 |
The Spartans have struggled on offense this year, ranking just #107 in scoring and #97 in total offense, but they've played some of the best defenses in the country. When adjusted for that, they rank as pretty much an average offense, #64 and #66 respectively in scoring and yardage. And against Wake Forest's questionable defense they should have better luck than they did against the Wisconsins and Ohio States. QB Brian Lewerke has 2,959 yards and 16 TDs; he's also thrown 12 interceptions. DB Nasir Greer is out for the Deacons which should aid the Spartans.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Wake Forest #117 Michigan State #104
Neither team will be be counting on special teams play to put them over the top.
Wake Forest's season (8-4)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)
- Utah St 38-35
- @Rice 41-21
- North Carolina 24-18
- Elon 49-7
- @Boston College 27-24
- Louisville 59-62
- Florida St 22-20
- North Carolina St 44-10
- @Virginia Tech 17-36
- @#3 Clemson 3-52
- Duke 39-27
- @Syracuse 30-39 OT
Wake Forest roared to a 5-0 start but lost a shootout with Louisville, 62-59, for their first loss. Two more wins—including Florida State—put the Deacons at 7-1 with 4 games left; they lost 3 of the last 4, including an overtime game at Syracuse. Their game ratings for the last 4 games are 9 points worse than their average performance, and 13 points worse than the first 8 games averaged.
Michigan State's season (6-6)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)
- Tulsa 28-7
- Western Michigan 51-17
- Arizona St 7-10
- @Northwestern 31-10
- Indiana 40-31
- @#2 Ohio State 10-34
- @#8 Wisconsin 0-38
- #10 Penn State 7-28
- Illinois 34-37
- @#14 Michigan 10-44
- @Rutgers 27-0
- Maryland 19-16
Michigan State started the season in the AP top 25 and looked it against Tulsa (on defense at least) and Western Michigan, but the offense fell flat against Arizona State. They recovered to go 5-1 before the showdown with Ohio State. Though they played a pretty good game in retrospect—holding the Buckeyes to 34 points is an accomplishment—the effect of that loss seemed to carry over into bad performances against Wisconsin and Penn State. Then Illinois staged a huge comeback from 28-3 to win 37-34, and that took the remaining wind out of the Spartans sails. They hit bottom against Michigan, losing 44-10.
The Spartans won their last two games against 2-10 Rutgers and 3-9 Maryland as the defense played well once again. But the offense was still tepid in those wins.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Wake Forest's season: +2 wins; Michigan State's season: -1 win
- Wake Forest's momentum: -2 wins; Michigan State's momentum: -2 wins
- Wake Forest glad to be here? yes; Michigan State glad to be here: NO
- Wake Forest time zones from home: 0; Michigan State time zones from home: 1
- Wake Forest coaching situation: unchanged; Michigan State coaching situation: unchanged
You can't tell much from the numbers above. Wake Forest added a couple of wins from last year, Michigan State lost one. Both teams had negative momentum, with a much better start to the season than their finish. But look at both programs' histories and Wake Forest is much happier with their season than the Spartans.
Michigan State expected to be a Big Ten contender this year, and started in the top 25. A 5-game losing streak put those dreams to rest. Meanwhile Wake Forest started the year unsure if they would make a bowl game. An 8-4 finish is more than they expected, and 6-6 is worse than the Spartans would have imagined.
It's not all roses for Wake Forest, who at 5-0 and 7-1 had bigger dreams than the Pinstripe Bowl. And technically Michigan State finished stronger, with two wins to secure a bowl berth, than the Deacons who lost 3 of 4. But the last 2 wins aren't what Sparty fans remember: it's the 5-game losing streak and the 44-10 loss to Michigan. Beating Rutgers and Maryland doesn't impress the MSU crowd. Their fans are not happy with the Pinstripe Bowl, which is a regarded as a poor destination for a barely-qualifying team.
Wake Forest is much more likely to focus on an 8-4 finish and the chance to play in Yankee Stadium. For them, there are positives, given what their historical status is: they missed a bowl six out of seven years recently, but now they're in their 4th one in a row. They see progress in the program, where Michigan State fears stagnation in their own.
Final analysis
Michigan State has struggled on offense. A lot of this is due to playing great defenses. But unfortunately their play on offense has declined in the 2nd half of the season even when schedule is accounted for, dropping by almost 12 points per game, or almost 6 points off their full-season average. In the first half of the season they scored 51 points on Western Michigan (defense ranking: 78) but in the last two games they faced the #99 and #101 defense and only managed 27 and 19.
Wake Forest has the same problem with their defense. In the last 4 games their defense has been almost 7 points worse than it was in the first 8, and about 4 points worse than their full-season average. That should give Michigan State some hope, but overall it's still a net loss of over 2 points for the Spartans. Overall, Michigan State is playing 10 points worse and Wake Forest 9 points worse. If either team can regain its earlier-season form they will win the game easily.
Which squad is more likely to do that? Michigan State's defense probably has recovered from its lows in the Illinois and Michigan game. But the offense hasn't shown life in months. The team and its fanbase aren't pleased with this destination. Wake Forest didn't play well down the stretch at all, but when they look back at an 8-4 season they see positives, not negatives. At least, that's what I would see for the team. There's more chance that Wake Forest is motivated to put the final touches on this season, while Michigan State is likely to want to get the thing over with.
Prediction: Wake Forest 20, Michigan State 16
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
Comments