View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Peach Bowl in Atlanta, GA
Time: Saturday, December 28 at 4:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#1 LSU Tigers (13-0) vs. #4 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1)
Here it is: the first of two College Football Playoff semifinals, LSU vs. Oklahoma. Enough said.
Vegas line/spread: LSU by 14 (over/under 76)
The line opened at 11 1/2 or so, and moved up to 13. It stayed there for over a week while the o/u dipped a half point but recovered. By game day the spread was up to 14.
Strength power rating: #2 LSU 44, #7 Oklahoma 36
Adjusted for turnovers: LSU 42-38
Median game rating: LSU 42-34
Wow, that's a huge line for Vegas to have on a playoff game but it goes to show you how good LSU is—and how vulnerable Oklahoma really is. We have them as the 7th best team in true Strength, with LSU at #2 in our power rating. Normally we have a wider spread than Vegas, but ours is just 8 points. We'll look at other details to see what the oddsmakers are thinking (though I believe the betting public has already moved it a few points).
Take away the often random turnover effect and the game gets tighter: LSU by 4. By median ratings it's still about 8 points.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -13 Spread |
| LSU | 67% | 36% |
| Oklahoma | 33% | 64% |
As expected LSU is the straight-up winner 2/3 of the time, but against a 13 point spread the Tigers cover only 1/3 of the time themselves.
When LSU has the ball
| LSU scoring offense: #2 |
Oklahoma scoring defense: #26 |
| LSU total offense: #1 |
Oklahoma total defense: #9 |
| LSU rushing offense: #37 |
Oklahoma rushing defense: #46 |
| LSU passing offense: #2 |
Oklahoma passing defense: #12 |
LSU's offense is pretty incredible, ranking #2 in adjusted scoring and #1 in adjusted total yardage. They are pitted against Oklahoma's sometimes questionable defense, but the Sooner defense is only questionable in that it isn't clearly inside the top 25; it's not "bad" in any real sense. They rank in the top ten in total defense, but they allow more points than you'd expect from the yardage; this is because they rank an abysmal #126 in red zone defense. That could be a big factor in the game, especially since LSU ranks #1 in red zone offense. And right here we have already identified a big reason for the wide Vegas spread.
LSU lives by the pass (#2 in the nation), and is decent on the ground, too. Oklahoma's pass defense is solid on a per-play basis but just outside the top ten. And their rush defense isn't terrible but isn't great either. LSU will have to work for their yardage but they will get it, and when they get in the red zone they will very likely score, maybe every time.
Joe Burrow rightly won the Heisman for his 2019 season: 4,715 yards, 48 TDs vs. 6 interceptions. Both Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson had well over 1,000 receiving yards and 18 and 14 TD catches respectively. Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 1,290 yards and 16 TDs—he's a big part of why their red zone offense is so good. He's questionable with a hamstring injury, normally meaning he would play but not be 100%. In this situation, the coaches may hold him out planning ahead for the next game. Tyrion Davis-Price (270) is next in line; he averages 5.1 ypc to Edwards-Helaire's 6.5.
Oklahoma's hope on defense may rest with the pass rush; they have 35 sacks and Burrow has been sacked 28 times. The Sooners might need to take a gamble and blitz often if they want to slow down the Tiger offense. Unfortunately sacks leader Ronnie Perkins (6) is suspended for the game. And starting safety Delarrin Turner-Yell is out injured.
When Oklahoma has the ball
| Oklahoma scoring offense: #4 |
LSU scoring defense: #17 |
| Oklahoma total offense: #3 |
LSU total defense: #16 |
| Oklahoma rushing offense: #5 |
LSU rushing defense: #17 |
| Oklahoma passing offense: #19 |
LSU passing defense: #14 |
Like the other matchup, the offense has the advantage here, which is why the over/under is so high. But it's not quite as pronounced here. Oklahoma's offense is top 5 in scoring and total offense, with a top 5 ground game, but LSU is in the top 20 on defense across the board. And when it comes to the red zone, LSU's #16 red zone defense can put up a fight against Oklahoma's #14 red zone offense.
Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts is the team's offensive machine. With 3,634 passing yards (32:7 TD:int) and 1,255 rushing yards, he does it all and makes the Sooner offense nearly impossible to figure out. RB Kennedy Brooks adds 976 yards to the Sooners' #5 ground game, but like LSU's top back, he too is questionable. CeeDee Lamb is Hurts' favorite target and one of the best receivers in college football; he has 1,208 yards and 14 TDs.
LSU's defense is sound but no one can stifle the Sooners; one can hope slow them down, though, and big plays would help. The Tigers have 16 interceptions on the year, including 6 by Derek Stingley, Jr.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): LSU #82 Oklahoma #79
This might be the only area where these teams are pretty awful. It would be a shame if a close game came down to a special teams flub by one side or the other, but stranger things have happened.
LSU's season (13-0)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (4)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)
- Georgia Southern 55-3
- @Texas 45-38
- Northwestern St 65-14
- @Vanderbilt 66-38
- Utah St 42- 6
- #9 Florida 42-28
- @Mississippi St 36-13
- #12 Auburn 23-20
- @#13 Alabama 46-41
- @Mississippi 58-37
- Arkansas 56-20
- Texas A&M 50-7
- @#5 Georgia 37-10
LSU never had a bad game on offense. They had a few on defense: game #4, giving up 38 at Vanderbilt, and game #10, giving up 37 at Mississippi. The rest of the games were at least decent and sometimes great, like games 1, 5, 7, and 8. And then there were the amazing last two games, but we'll get to that.
When we say they never played a bad game on offense, we really mean they rarely played a less-than-awesome offensive game. At least 7 games were off-the-charts great, like games 1, 4, 6, 9, and 10. And of course the final two games. We're getting there...
In all, LSU beat 9 bowl teams and four top 25 teams. The first three wins were close: #9 Florida by 14, #12 Auburn by 3, #13 Alabama by 5. The other one is part of their final two games. Here we go:
First, 50-7 over Texas A&M. We can see how amazing this win is by comparing it to the Aggies 4 other losses, to #3 Clemson, #5 Georgia, #12 Auburn, and #13 Alabama. They lost those games by 14, 6, 8, and 19 points. LSU beat them by 43 points. LSU scored more on them than any of those four ranked teams, and held them to fewer points than any of the four did.
Almost the equal of that was the 37-10 beatdown of #5 Georgia, which needs no explanation. These two games were LSU playing 20 points better than they did on average for the season—which of course, includes those games in the calculation. Put another way, they played 24 points better than they had over the first 11 games.
Oklahoma's season (12-1)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)
- Houston 49-31
- South Dakota 70-14
- @UCLA 48-14
- Texas Tech 55-16
- @Kansas 45-20
- =Texas 34-27
- West Virginia 52-14
- @Kansas St 41-48
- Iowa St 42-41
- @#7 Baylor 34-31
- TCU 28-24
- @#25 Oklahoma St 34-16
- =#7 Baylor 30-23 OT
Oklahoma played a very easy schedule through half of their season, but they dominated it as expected. Defensively they looked a bit vulnerable in the Houston opener (31 points) but otherwise did well enough. Against Kansas State, though, Oklahoma fell behind big and couldn't quite make a miracle comeback; the defense had dug them too big a hole. The bad defensive performance carried over to the Iowa State game, where Oklahoma escaped with a 42-41 win.
Then came the first Baylor game, the infamous 28-3 deficit, and this time the miracle comeback that did happen. The Sooners won the rest of their games, faced Baylor again, and came away with another skin-of-their-teeth victory, this time in overtime. Overall it sure looks like the Sooners took a small step down once they started playing good teams.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- LSU's season: +4 wins; Oklahoma's season: +0 wins
- LSU's momentum: +0 wins; Oklahoma's momentum: -1 win
- LSU glad to be here? YES; Oklahoma glad to be here: YES
- LSU time zones from home: 0; Oklahoma time zones from home: 1
- LSU coaching situation: unchanged; Oklahoma coaching situation: unchanged
At this level, there's no need for discussion of motivation in regular terms, or whether the teams are glad to be here; it's the playoffs. It's possible for a team to come out too tight or too loose, but that's really hard to predict at all. We can say that LSU seems to be playing with 100% confidence, while Oklahoma has to have a little bit of doubt as they are the only playoff team with a loss, and needed two very close wins over Baylor to get here.
Final analysis
It's clear that the offenses are better than the defenses in this game. But LSU is better on defense than Oklahoma, and they even have the better offense. That's enough reason to make them a touchdown favorite. It gets worse for Oklahoma when you compare LSU's red zone offense—#1—to Oklahoma's #126 red zone defense. That's a death blow for the Sooners. It's hard to imagine them winning this game just from that stat alone.
The only team to beat Oklahoma so far? Kansas State, owner of the #2 red zone offense. Iowa State (#9 RZ) scored 41 on the Sooners. They did hold #6 RZ TCU to 24 and #10 Texas to 27, but both still scored more than the median Oklahoma allowed.
Meanwhile, LSU has a solid #16 red zone defense to match Oklahoma's #14 red zone offense. That's parity; the other is a mismatch. And it really comes into play if the game is close and goes into overtime, where every possession basically starts in the red zone (note that when Oklahoma beat Baylor in overtime, the Bears didn't advance past the 25 yard line, so they were never in the technical red zone!)
Not only that, but LSU seems to be getting better while Oklahoma declines a bit. The Sooners' last 6 games rank almost 6 points lower than their full season rating. Meanwhile LSU's last two games are off the charts as both the offense and defense played like the best units in the country, 20 points above the average used to compute the Strength power ratings' 8 point margin.
Worse, Oklahoma has lost a key player on both offense and defense to suspension; sacks leader Ronnie Perkins and #3 rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (515 yards) are out. As is starting safety Delarrin Turner-Yell, lost to injury.
We started out looking to justify our power rating's smaller spread vs. Vegas, and by the end, everything is pointing to an LSU rout. That's not without precedent as the Playoff games are surprisingly full of huge blowouts, with 5 of the 15 games decided by 27 or more points. We've dropped our LSU estimate a bit for the fact that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is probably not 100%, but we still predict quite a rout, reminiscent of the infamous 2004 national title game.
Prediction: LSU 55, Oklahoma 23
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
Comments