View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule here
Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL
Time: Wednesday, January 1 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#12 Auburn Tigers (9-3) vs. #18 Minnesota Golden Gophers (10-2)
Auburn is known only for being a spoiler. Minnesota didn't get any respect for their great season. Which team has more to prove?
Vegas line/spread: Auburn by 7 (over/under 53.5)
Moves: The line has remained steady for a few weeks, with the over/under up a point.
Strength power rating: #9 Auburn 32, #19 Minnesota 22
Adjusted for turnovers: Auburn 30-21
Median game rating: Auburn 33-23
Road play rating: Auburn 33-20
Auburn is more of a favorite with our Strength power rating than Vegas, and some of that has to do with Minnesota's slow start to the season being discounted by the oddsmakers while our power rating averages it in, unweighted. In fact, using our power rating with a +10% weight each week, Auburn ends up just a 7 1/2 point favorite. All the other adjustments (turnovers, median, road games) are at least somewhat affected by the Gophers' poor first three games.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -7 Spread |
| Auburn | 71% | 56% |
| Minnesota | 29% | 44% |
The game-comparison system uses all of each team's performances and cross-compares them, yielding 144 (12 x 12 games) results. Auburn wins about 70% of these, and 56% vs. a 7-point spread. As we noted before, Minnesota's first three games were terrible, automatically giving Auburn 36 "wins" here. With those removed—which probably better reflects how the Gophers will play—Auburn's straight up win percentage drops to 61%, and they cover a 7 point spread just 42% of the time.
When Auburn has the ball
| Auburn scoring offense: #17 |
Minnesota scoring defense: #33 |
| Auburn total offense: #21 |
Minnesota total defense: #28 |
| Auburn rushing offense: #19 |
Minnesota rushing defense: #42 |
| Auburn passing offense: #69 |
Minnesota passing defense: #41 |
The Tigers have a solid offense, top 25 in scoring, total yardage, and rushing yardage per game (all adjusted for competition). Their passing game is a bit weak, with freshman Bo Nix struggling at times for his 2,366 yards and 15:6 TD:int ratio. JaTarvious Whitlow leads on the ground with 739 yards, and three others top 300. That might not sound like a lot, but look at the defenses they face week to week. Minnesota's defense struggled early in the year but improved to near top 25 level, looking decent against both the run and pass. Its standout is DB Antoine Winfield Jr, who leads the team in tackles and has 7 interceptions on the year. Starting LB Kamal Martin will miss the game preparing for the NFL draft.
When Minnesota has the ball
| Minnesota scoring offense: #16 |
Auburn scoring defense: #9 |
| Minnesota total offense: #22 |
Auburn total defense: #6 |
| Minnesota rushing offense: #34 |
Auburn rushing defense: #2 |
| Minnesota passing offense: #33 |
Auburn passing defense: #5 |
Minnesota really has a good offense; it ranks solidly in the top 25 by scoring and by total yardage. It's also balanced between rushing and passing which keeps opponents guessing and gives the Gophers options when one or the other isn't working. The problem is that Auburn's defense has the same balance but even more so, ranking in the top 10 across the board, and top 5 against both the run and the pass.
QB Tanner Morgan (2,975 yards, 28 TDs, 6 int) is having a stellar season helming the Gophers. Two huge reasons for his success are Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson, receivers who both have over 1,000 yards on the season and 11 TDs apiece. RB Rodney Smith topped 1,000 yards on the ground. Meanwhile Auburn's defense isn't a big-play defense; they don't have a crazy number of sacks or interceptions. They just stop teams from getting yardage and scoring, and the burden of proof is on Minnesota's offense to show they can do both of those things; their performance against top defenses is mixed.
Special Teams rank (from ESPN FPI): Auburn #46 Minnesota #126
Auburn's special teams aren't stellar, but they are compared to Minnesota, who ranks 96th in net punting, hasn't made a field goal over 40 yards, and ranks 80th in kickoff return defense.
Auburn's season (9-3)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)
- =#6 Oregon 27-21
- Tulane 24-6
- Kent St 55-16
- @Texas A&M 28-20
- Mississippi St 56-23
- @#9 Florida 13-24
- @Arkansas 51-10
- @#1 LSU 20-23
- Mississippi 20-14
- #5 Georgia 14-21
- Samford 52-0
- #13 Alabama 48-45
Auburn started out like gangbusters, beating #6 Oregon on a neutral field and beating 4 more bowl-bound teams for a 5-0 start. Over the next 5 games they lost at #9 Florida by 11, at #1 LSU by a field goal, and at home vs. Georgia by a touchdown. Three games later they beat Alabama in yet another classic between the teams. They closed out a season bookended by their biggest wins, and only lost to top ten teams by small amounts. While their freshman-led offense showed quite a bit of variability, the Tigers were a steady team due to their strong defense, which played consistently well all year.
Minnesota's season (10-2)
Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)
- South Dakota St 28-21
- @Fresno St 38-35 2OT
- Georgia Southern 35-32
- @Purdue 38-31
- Illinois 40-17
- Nebraska 34-7
- @Rutgers 42-7
- Maryland 52-10
- #10 Penn State 31-26
- @#16 Iowa 19-23
- @Northwestern 38-22
- #8 Wisconsin 17-38
It took a while for the pollsters to warm up to Minnesota, but you can't really blame them. The Gophers were 7-6 last year and the first three games put them at about that level, as they struggled to beat FCS South Dakota State, were taken into double overtime by Fresno State, and beat Georgia Southern by a field goal. At 3-0, no one was paying attention, and the next five wins could be explained away: Purdue was 1-2 when the Gophers beat them by a touchdown; Illinois wasn't yet on the upswing that made them respectable; Nebraska was still having problems, everyone was beating Rutgers, and Maryland was collapsing.
But by then Minnesota was 8-0 and had won their last four games by a combined 168-41. The schedule looked weak—and it was—but the Gophers were clearly playing a LOT better than early on. Not many expected they'd beat Penn State but they did, and finally they got some attention. Still, the consensus was they'd lose to Iowa and Wisconsin and fail to make the Big Ten title game, and the consensus was correct. Iowa edged the Gophers 23-19 at home, and Wisconsin pulled away for a 38-17 win. The dream ended just when it was really getting started, but it was a fun ride for the team and its fans.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Auburn's season: +2 wins; Minnesota's season: +4 wins
- Auburn's momentum: -1 win; Minnesota's momentum: -2 wins
- Auburn glad to be here? yes; Minnesota glad to be here: yes
- Auburn time zones from home: 1; Minnesota time zones from home: 1;
- Auburn coaching situation: unchanged; Minnesota coaching situation: unchanged
Both teams are glad to be playing in a solid New Year's Day bowl, even if it's just the Outback. Both had hopes of something better, but those hopes were dashed and it seems both teams have to realize it wasn't meant to be. Auburn's hopes peaked early on, at 5-0 when they had the best résumé of any team in the nation. Over the next few weeks they suffered three losses and revisited their expectations. A big win over Alabama was a fantastic consolation prize. Minnesota had dreams of running the table and making the Playoff, but even their most ardent supporters didn't think it would become a reality. So there is disappointment, but recognition of accomplishment, too. The difference is that they ended on a bad note against Wisconsin, where a win would have put them in the Big Ten title game, still with hope of making the Playoff.
Final analysis
These teams have very equal offenses. The difference lies in defense, where Auburn is clearly superior. Hence, the Tigers are the favorite. How have the Gophers fared on offense against top defenses? Let's take a look. Minnesota played three top ten defenses, all late in the season:
- #7 Penn State: Gophers scored 31 at home (adj to 29 pts)
- #3 Iowa: Gophers scored 19 on the road (adj to 21 pts)
- #5 Wisconsin: Gophers scored 17 at home (adj to 15 pts)
These offensive performances started out very good, but declined each time. It's like Penn State didn't quite take the Gophers seriously enough, but Iowa figured them out, and Wisconsin knew just how to stop them. One can only assume Auburn's #9 defense will be able to do the same.
Auburn is a 10 point favorite in our power rating on average, but that includes every game. Is it more realistic to discount Minnesota's early games? If we do, Minnesota is almost 6 points better, giving Auburn just a 4 point win. Sure is nice to be able to disregard your worst performances, right? But the early Gopher games were clearly not representative of the kind of team they would become; Auburn would beat that early-season team by 27 points.
Auburn ended on a high note against Alabama; Minnesota ended on a low note vs. Wisconsin. More bad new for Minnesota, but the Gophers will be a lot more excited by the prospect of a big New Year's Day bowl than Auburn. Also, the Tigers might have emotionally peaked vs. Alabama. After beating their main rival, how excited can they get at the prospect of playing Minnesota?
Expectations for Minnesota peaked after the Penn State game, but after two losses they've gone back to where they were before. It's possible that Minnesota can surprise the Tigers, who might be overconfident.
But I don't think the Tigers get over- or under-confident. They've played even-keel the whole season, and it's because of their defense. Auburn's offense has been erratic and had a lot of flat games, and after the Alabama game they might have a letdown. But the defense should be able to control the Gopher offense and lead the team to a win. I've settled on a low-scoring game, but not that low scoring.
Prediction: Auburn 23, Minnesota 17
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2019-2020 bowl game schedule.
Comments